Daily News 19

Tag: Bitcoin

  • Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Warns on Bitcoin, Reveals Condition to Save BTC

    Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Warns on Bitcoin, Reveals Condition to Save BTC

    Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone has warned that elevated equity valuations and expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are generating strong sell signals for Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin’s Risk-Adjusted Returns Under Scrutiny

    McGlone noted that Bitcoin’s performance over the past five years has roughly matched the S&P 500 index, but with approximately three times higher volatility. He described Bitcoin as an extremely volatile and speculative digital asset that exhibits a high correlation with the stock market while competing with millions of other crypto assets.

    From a risk and portfolio management perspective, McGlone argued that Bitcoin presents a negative picture because it offers similar returns to the S&P 500 while carrying approximately three times the volatility.

    Three Key Downside Risk Factors Identified

    The analyst pointed to three factors increasing downside risks for Bitcoin:

    • Bitcoin encountering resistance around $80,000 during its recent rise
    • Futures markets pricing in approximately 70 basis points of Fed interest rate hikes over the next year
    • The S&P 500 index trading at significantly higher levels compared to its 200-week moving average

    McGlone noted that Bitcoin tends to move strongly with the S&P 500, especially during periods of decreased market risk appetite, and therefore considers BTC a high-beta asset that follows the stock market.

    Bearish Scenario: Potential Drop to $10,000

    McGlone raised a sharp long-term bearish scenario in which Bitcoin could move toward the $10,000 level, a zone that has acted as critical support multiple times in the past. A sustained decline of approximately 20% in the S&P 500 could trigger such a scenario, according to the analyst.

    However, McGlone added that for this negative scenario to be invalidated, Bitcoin needs to decouple from the stock market and consistently demonstrate strong performance. He suggested that BTC’s ability to maintain strength, particularly during a potential S&P 500 decline, could support the thesis that Bitcoin is no longer just a high-beta risk asset.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Bitcoin’s Oil Risk Extends to 2027 as IEA Cuts Supply Outlook Again

    Bitcoin’s Oil Risk Extends to 2027 as IEA Cuts Supply Outlook Again

    IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Supply Forecast, Pushes Full Gulf Recovery to 2027

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2026 global oil supply projection and now expects a full recovery of Gulf exports only in 2027, a timeline that could delay energy-driven relief in borrowing costs for leveraged Bitcoin investors.

    Supply and Demand Both Revised Lower

    In its September 11 report, the IEA projects average global supply of 100.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, down from 102 million bpd in the August 12 outlook—a downward revision of 1.3 million bpd. On the demand side, the agency forecasts global oil consumption will contract by 2.5 million bpd in 2026 versus 2025, a decline roughly 940,000 bpd deeper than previously expected.

    Weaker consumption would normally ease pressure on tight supplies. However, the IEA estimates global observed inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, signaling that reduced usage has not yet translated into physical loosening.

    Gulf Export Recovery Remains Uneven

    There are signs of improvement in trade flows. The IEA notes that increased volumes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and military-escorted shipments through the strait have helped narrow crude export losses. Yet Gulf refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas exports in August remained nearly 60% below February levels. The agency characterizes the recovery as uneven and emphasizes that the 2027 timetable remains a forecast.

    Inflation Expectations Complicate the Path to Cheaper Credit

    For investors borrowing dollars to hold Bitcoin, the connection runs through inflation and interest-rate expectations. Persistent energy-price pressure that keeps rate expectations elevated could postpone financing relief. This risk affects borrowers exposed to broader credit conditions; the IEA reports do not measure changes in Bitcoin-specific borrowing costs.

    The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework explains how short-term rates influence lending costs and how expectations of future policy affect longer-term rates and credit terms.

    University of Michigan Survey Shows Rising Inflation Expectations

    A preliminary September survey from the University of Michigan adds a cautionary signal: year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0% in August, while long-run expectations edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%. The modest move in long-run expectations warrants attention, though a single preliminary reading does not confirm a lasting shift.

    Fed Governor Waller’s Pre-IEA Assessment

    An earlier counterweight came from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. In a September 3 speech, Waller said his concern about energy costs spreading broadly into goods and services prices had not materialized so far. He identified renewed energy pressure and rising longer-term inflation expectations as risks. Waller indicated he could support holding rates steady if disinflation continued, but would consider a hike if August inflation data reversed that progress. Those conditional views preceded the IEA’s latest supply revision.

    Key Test Ahead of September Fed Meeting

    Ahead of the September 15–16 Federal Reserve meeting, the critical test for cheaper credit is whether weaker consumption and recovering flows translate into reduced inflation pressure. Sustained supply recovery and limited spillovers would strengthen the case for easing; persistent price pressure would weaken it. Falling oil demand alone offers Bitcoin borrowers no assurance of financing relief.

  • Chinese Crypto Founder Issues Bitcoin Warning: “Significant Price Movement May Be On the Way”

    Chinese Crypto Founder Issues Bitcoin Warning: “Significant Price Movement May Be On the Way”

    B.TOP Founder Jiang Zhuoer Warns of Bitcoin Correction After Leveraged Liquidations

    Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, has assessed Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory and warned that a significant correction could follow the liquidation of highly leveraged positions in the market.

    Key Liquidation Zones Identified

    According to Zhuoer’s analysis, the most probable scenario involves Bitcoin first clearing an intense liquidation zone above $76,000. During the same period, Ethereum is expected to test a liquidation zone around $2,665, which would eliminate a substantial portion of short positions at higher levels.

    Two Divergent Scenarios Post-Liquidity Clear

    After Bitcoin clears liquidity above $76,000, Zhuoer outlined two distinct scenarios that could unfold:

    Scenario 1: Recovery Above $75,000

    If Bitcoin recovers without falling below the $75,000 support level, Zhuoer states the rally could extend toward $80,000. The analyst believes the price could even test the strong resistance zone between $83,000 and $84,000. However, Zhuoer cautions that a larger correction could follow such an advance.

    Scenario 2: Break Below $75,000 Support

    Should Bitcoin lose the $75,000 support level, a deeper correction is expected that would mirror the upward movement originating from $64,000. In this case, Zhuoer predicts Bitcoin could decline to the $70,000-$72,000 region before entering the next phase of the bull market.

    Upcoming Catalysts and Strategic Positioning

    Zhuoer highlighted that an expected vote on a bill next week, combined with developments from the Federal Reserve, will serve as important catalysts that could determine market direction. Due to this uncertainty, Zhuoer explained he is pursuing a more balanced strategy against market direction, maintaining a full short position in Bitcoin and a full spot position in Ethereum.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Rally Threatened as September 16 Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 86%

    Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Rally Threatened as September 16 Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 86%

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are bracing for a fresh macroeconomic headwind as market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have climbed sharply.

    Bitcoin Faces Key Test Ahead of September FOMC Decision

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point increase has surged in recent sessions, reflecting sticky inflation data and resilient labor-market readings that have pushed traders to reprice the terminal-rate outlook. The shift puts risk assets—including the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization—on alert for heightened volatility in the days leading up to the policy announcement.

    Rate-Hike Expectations Reaccelerate

    Fed futures now show a materially higher chance of a hike compared with a week ago, when the consensus leaned strongly toward a pause. The repricing follows a run of economic releases—including consumer-price-index and producer-price-index reports—that came in above forecast, reviving concerns that the central bank’s disinflation progress has stalled.

    Crypto Market Implications

    Bitcoin, often viewed as a liquidity-sensitive asset, has historically sold off when rate-hike expectations rise, as higher discount rates pressure valuations across the risk spectrum. Ethereum and XRP tend to exhibit even higher beta to macro shifts, amplifying downside moves during hawkish repricing episodes. Traders are monitoring key technical levels on BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and XRP/USD pairs for signs of trend exhaustion or breakout confirmation once the FOMC statement and accompanying Summary of Economic Projections are released.

    What to Watch on September 16

    • Policy rate decision: Whether the Fed raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points or holds steady.
    • Dot-plot projections: Updated median forecasts for the policy path through 2024 and beyond.
    • Chair Powell’s press conference: Tone on inflation persistence, labor-market tightness, and the reaction function for future meetings.

    Market participants will parse every word for clues on whether the hiking cycle has truly ended or if one more increase remains on the table before a prolonged pause. The outcome will likely set the near-term trajectory for digital-asset prices as well as traditional risk markets.

  • Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 87% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

    Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 87% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

    Federal Reserve officials face a critical policy test next week as financial markets now assign an 87% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting. The sharp repricing follows August consumer price index data that showed inflation remaining stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. With Bitcoin trading near $77,256, cryptocurrency traders are assessing how tighter monetary policy could influence digital asset flows.

    Markets Sharply Reprice September Hike Odds

    Rate futures indicate an 87% chance of a hike, up from 72% just a day earlier. Nearly all economists surveyed now expect a quarter-point move, a dramatic reversal from earlier consensus. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate currently sits at 3.50%–3.75%.

    Before the latest inflation report, most economists anticipated a pause, citing easing price pressures and the approaching U.S. midterm elections. Only 13 of 48 economists had penciled in a September increase. Hotter-than-expected core inflation upended that view. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI rose 3.4%, matching forecasts, while core CPI held at 2.4%, also in line with estimates.

    Heather Long: September Hike “Almost Locked In”

    Chief economist Heather Long described a September increase as “almost locked in,” warning that the risk of entrenched inflation continues to grow. Long reinforced the call on social media:

    A September Fed rate hike is almost locked in now
    85% chance the Fed hikes next week.
    It’s the right call. The risks are growing that inflation remains entrenched (or keeps broadening). Fed Chair Warsh doesn’t want to make the same mistake Powell did of waiting too long to… pic.twitter.com/RdGcjhTP4G

    — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 11, 2026

    If enacted, the move would mark the first Federal Reserve rate increase in three years.

    Traders Now See Multiple Hikes Through 2027

    The repricing extends well beyond September. Futures markets now imply at least three rate hikes through June 2027, up from two previously, with a base case of four increases by July 2027. That trajectory represents a stark turnaround from the start of 2026, when investors were pricing in four rate cuts over the same horizon.

    Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida emphasized the likelihood of a sustained tightening cycle:

    “If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones.”

    “It would not be a ‘one and done’ move.”

    The shift signals a higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook as investors brace for prolonged inflation-fighting efforts.

    Implications for Bitcoin and Crypto Markets

    Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of riskier assets, as investors can earn competitive yields from safer instruments such as government bonds. That dynamic can drain capital from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader cryptocurrency complex.

    Despite the hawkish repricing, digital assets rallied on the inflation data. Bitcoin briefly approached $77,500, while Ether climbed above $2,511, suggesting near-term momentum may be decoupling from rate expectations.

  • Revolut Disclosed Customer Bitcoin Records Following Unauthorized Government Request, Report Says

    Revolut Disclosed Customer Bitcoin Records Following Unauthorized Government Request, Report Says

    A number of Revolut customers have reported receiving notifications that their personal and financial data — including Bitcoin transaction histories — was disclosed in response to a government request now believed to be fraudulent.

    Fraudulent Request Used Legitimate-Looking Credentials

    According to an email shared by onchain investigator ZachXBT, the request originated from an unauthorized email account that nevertheless used a government agency’s official domain and carried valid domain authentication credentials. The convincing appearance of the request may have led Revolut to process it without detecting the deception.

    Scope of Exposed Data

    The disclosed information is extensive. Personal details include customers’ full names, dates of birth, occupations, postal addresses, email addresses, and telephone numbers. Identity and verification records — such as passport or driver’s license copies and verification selfies — were also released.

    On the financial side, the data covers account statements, IBANs, withdrawal records, and full transaction histories, including Bitcoin activity. The email specified that biometric facial telemetry data was not shared.

    Experts Warn of Targeted Attack on High-Net-Worth Users

    Security experts suggest Revolut may have failed to recognize the fraudulent nature of the request before releasing customer information. “While the incident is likely limited in size it seems to have been targeted at high net worth users,” ZachXBT said.

    Revolut has not yet commented publicly on the reported data exposure.

  • Bitcoin Recovers From CPI Dip as US Inflation Holds at 3.4%

    Bitcoin Recovers From CPI Dip as US Inflation Holds at 3.4%

    US Inflation Data Triggers Brief Bitcoin Dip Before Recovery Above $77,000

    Bitcoin experienced a sharp but short-lived decline toward $76,000 following the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed underlying price pressures running slightly hotter than economists anticipated. The cryptocurrency quickly reversed course, reclaiming the $77,000 level, while Ethereum and several major altcoins maintained gains throughout the trading session.

    Core CPI Exceeds Forecasts, Keeping Federal Reserve Policy in Focus

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from July’s 0.1% increase and matching consensus estimates. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation held steady at 3.4%, remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    The core inflation measure, which strips out volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% month-over-month — above the 0.2% increase most economists had projected. However, the annual core inflation rate edged down from 2.5% to 2.4%.

    Gasoline prices accounted for over one-third of the monthly headline increase, surging 3.9% and lifting the broader energy index 2.1%. Shelter costs rose 0.3%, while food prices edged up 0.1%.

    Bitcoin Volatility Reflects Trader Uncertainty on Rate Outlook

    Bitcoin initially slid to approximately $76,050 immediately after the data release before recovering to trade above $77,100. The token’s intraday range spanned $76,400 to $79,550, highlighting the divided sentiment among market participants interpreting the inflation implications for US interest rates.

    The stronger-than-expected core reading could reinforce a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve at its September 15-16 policy meeting. Elevated interest rates typically reduce the appeal of riskier assets as investors find alternative yield opportunities in safer instruments.

    Ethereum Outperforms as Broader Crypto Market Shows Resilience

    Ethereum led the major cryptocurrencies during the session, trading near $2,543 — a gain of nearly 3.2% after reaching intraday highs of $2,648. Solana advanced approximately 1.5% to around $101, while BNB climbed 1.4% to roughly $723. Dogecoin added a modest 0.5%, and XRP was little changed near $1.35.

    Notably, gains across the altcoin complex began before the CPI release, meaning they cannot be attributed to the inflation data. However, the market’s refusal to follow Bitcoin’s initial slide lower suggests the sell pressure was isolated rather than systemic.

    Key Takeaways

    • US headline inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year; monthly core CPI (0.3%) exceeded the 0.2% forecast.
    • Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $76,000 before recovering above $77,000, with an unusually wide $3,000+ intraday range.
    • Ethereum and major altcoins held gains, indicating the initial Bitcoin weakness did not trigger a broader market sell-off.
  • Bitcoin’s ‘Unusual Mix’: Bearish Inflation Print, Bullish Buyback Failure

    Bitcoin’s ‘Unusual Mix’: Bearish Inflation Print, Bullish Buyback Failure

    Bitcoin’s near-term upside faces fresh headwinds after hotter-than-expected core inflation data, but a potential failure of the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback program could strengthen the longer-term bullish case, according to a new report from European asset manager CoinShares.

    Sticky Inflation Raises Odds of Tighter Fed Policy

    In a Friday note, CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill said firmer-than-expected core inflation raises the probability of tighter Federal Reserve policy and could cap Bitcoin below $80,000 in the short term. Data released Friday showed the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from the previous month — above consensus estimates.

    According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders see an 85% chance interest rates will be higher after the Federal Reserve meets next week. Bitcoin has historically performed better in low interest rate environments.

    Treasury Buyback Failure Could Fuel Debasement Narrative

    Butterfill argued the longer-term case for Bitcoin rests on the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback program failing to bring down long-end yields — a development that could ultimately feed the currency debasement narrative that has supported both Bitcoin and gold.

    “The result is therefore a somewhat unusual policy mix for Bitcoin,” the report read. “Today’s CPI data is negative at the margin, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy and potentially limiting the immediate upside.

    “But the apparent failure of the Treasury’s current buying programme increases the likelihood of much more substantial intervention further ahead.”

    It continued: “If that happens, it could become one of the more powerful medium-term catalysts for Bitcoin.”

    Pressure Building for ‘Bazooka-Style’ Intervention

    The U.S. Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program has so far failed to materially suppress long-term yields. If yields remain stubbornly high, Butterfill said pressure will build on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to escalate to a much larger, “bazooka-style” buying program aimed at forcing borrowing costs down.

    Bitcoin recorded one of its best monthly runs in years this past August after Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks. That announcement and subsequent price surge led some market observers to declare the so-called debasement trade had returned — a strategy where investors buy assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against currency devaluation as the dollar weakens.

  • Philadelphia Fed Finds Bitcoin Traders Follow Whale Signals Faster Than Ethereum Users

    Philadelphia Fed Finds Bitcoin Traders Follow Whale Signals Faster Than Ethereum Users

    A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reveals a stark divergence in how Bitcoin and Ethereum markets react to public notifications of large cryptocurrency transfers. Published this month, the study finds that non-whale Bitcoin wallets rapidly follow the trading direction of identified whales, while Ethereum market participation remains largely stable.

    Study Methodology and Whale Definition

    The Philadelphia Fed researchers matched timestamps from Whale Alert public notifications with on-chain transfer data for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) through the end of 2025. The authors defined a whale wallet as an address that had executed at least one transfer valued above $50 million, explicitly excluding large wallets associated with centralized exchanges or smart contracts.

    To isolate distinct events, the study filtered for transactions without another whale transfer occurring within a two-hour window on either side. This process yielded a final sample of 6,645 Bitcoin whale transactions and 5,075 Ethereum whale transactions.

    Bitcoin: Sharp, Short-Lived Herding Behavior

    The data shows that active participation from non-whale Bitcoin wallets—specifically small and medium-sized cohorts—surged most intensely during the first 15 minutes following a whale alert.

    Buy-Side Reaction (Following Whale Buys)

    • Small wallets: Buy participation increased by 14.81 percentage points.
    • Medium wallets: Buy participation increased by 23.72 percentage points.
    • Large wallets: Buy participation increased by 3.50 percentage points.

    Sell-Side Reaction (Following Whale Sells)

    • Small wallets: Sell participation rose by 12.95 percentage points.
    • Medium wallets: Sell participation rose by 29.52 percentage points.
    • Large wallets: Sell participation rose by 2.95 percentage points.

    This same-direction trading activity decayed toward baseline levels within approximately one hour.

    Ethereum: Muted and Stable Response

    In contrast, Ethereum did not exhibit a broad-based retail reaction. Post-alert participation remained comparatively stable across all wallet size groups. The only statistically notable immediate response appeared among the largest non-whale cohort following whale sells. Medium-sized ETH sellers registered a reaction only at the study’s weaker 10% significance threshold.

    The authors emphasize that these wallet classifications reflect transaction-based proxies for activity levels, not the verified identities of the individuals or entities controlling the addresses.

    Diverging Volatility Dynamics

    The market structure difference extends to realized volatility:

    • Bitcoin: Whale alerts correlated with a temporary rise in realized BTC volatility at short horizons. However, by the 24-hour mark, the volatility effect from both BTC and ETH alerts had reversed.
    • Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC): Alerts for WBTC on Ethereum showed a volatility impact statistically indistinguishable from zero.
    • Ethereum: Realized volatility on the Ethereum network was lower after alerts, suggesting large Ethereum-network transfers tend to occur during periods of declining volatility.

    Market Structure, Not Consensus Mechanism

    The authors attribute the behavioral gap to fundamental market-structure differences. They note that Ethereum activity frequently routes through exchanges, smart contracts, and Layer-2 scaling solutions, where numerous user transactions are often aggregated into larger balance transfers.

    This structural contrast persisted through Ethereum’s September 2022 transition to proof-of-stake, indicating that the consensus mechanism alone does not explain the divergence in market dynamics.

    Observational Evidence, Not Causal Proof

    The researchers caution that the evidence remains observational. Key limitations include:

    • Wallet-size groups serve as transaction-based proxies rather than definitive entity classifiers.
    • A single owner may control multiple addresses.
    • Exchange-related activity was excluded from the whale definition and analysis.

    Consequently, the event study establishes robust patterns in wallet activity and volatility surrounding public alerts, but does not prove that the alerts caused every observed market response.

  • Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin’s Daily Golden Cross Fails as Hawkish Fed Expectations Trigger Pullback

    Bitcoin’s brief daily golden cross collapsed Friday evening as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) slipped back below the 200-day EMA, reversing a bullish signal that had confirmed earlier in the session. The cryptocurrency retreated to $77,438 after reaching an intraday high near $79,837, tracking a sharp repricing in interest-rate markets following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

    Rate-Hike Odds Surge After CPI Release

    The pullback coincides with a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed core monthly inflation at 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast. In response, CME FedWatch Tool data indicates the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting spiked from roughly 69% immediately after the data release to 86.5% within hours.

    A rate increase would typically trigger a risk-off move, pressuring assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks. Despite the intraday reversal, Bitcoin remains up 1.19% on the day.

    Daily Candle Structure: Volatile Round Trip

    Friday’s daily candle opened at $76,529, surged to $79,837, dropped to a low of $76,040, and settled near $77,438. That volatility was sufficient to flip the daily EMA crossover back to bearish after the 50-day average had briefly pierced above the 200-day average—a pattern traders call a golden cross, widely regarded as a strong bullish signal. Bitcoin had not printed a daily golden cross since November 2024.

    Why the Golden Cross Flickered

    A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average (the 50-day, based on the last 50 daily closes) crosses above a longer-term one (the 200-day). It is among the most watched trend signals across markets, historically preceding significant Bitcoin rallies. However, it is a lagging indicator constructed entirely from past prices. When the two averages trade in close proximity—as they do now—intraday swings can toggle the signal on and off within a single session.

    Today’s push to $79,837 lifted the 50-day EMA above the 200-day, and the subsequent retreat to $77,438 pulled it back under. For daily chart watchers, the episode underscores how fragile such crossovers can be when the averages sit near each other. The daily candle remains open, so the reading could flip again before the close.

    Underlying Trend Strength Remains Intact

    Despite the moving-average whipsaw, broader trend metrics support a constructive outlook. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength irrespective of direction, reads 45 on the daily chart—well above the 25 threshold that separates a genuine trend from noise. Positive directional movement continues to outpace negative.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator scaled 0–100, sits at 55.5 on the daily timeframe, holding on the bullish side of neutral (above 50). Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions; below 30 indicates oversold.

    4-Hour Chart: Bullish Structure Persists, Momentum Cools

    Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour timeframe never lost its golden cross. The 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, preserving a bullish structure that formed in late August. However, short-term momentum has deteriorated:

    • RSI: Dropped to 43.3, entering bearish territory.
    • Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Fired after days of compression, with volatility expanding 3.95%—a pattern that often precedes a sharp directional move, currently to the downside.
    • ADX: Stands at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, signaling a much weaker intraday trend compared to the daily reading of 45.

    The bigger picture still leans bullish. The 4-hour golden cross has held since late August, and the daily ADX at 45 confirms a robust trend is in place even as the moving-average label flips back and forth on a single volatile session.

    Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.