Daily News 19

Tag: Federal Reserve

  • Bitcoin Price Nears $80K as Trump Signals Iran Talks

    Bitcoin Price Nears $80K as Trump Signals Iran Talks

    Bitcoin Recovers 3% to $79,143 as Trump Signals Iran Diplomacy, but Geopolitical Risks Persist

    Bitcoin ($BTC) climbed approximately 3% to $79,143 on Monday after briefly touching $79,325, buoyed by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting Iran wants to reach a deal with Washington. The recovery comes despite conflicting statements from Tehran and ongoing military tensions that continue to pressure energy markets.

    Trump Comments Spark Risk-On Sentiment

    Bitcoin’s rebound accelerated after President Trump posted on Truth Social that Tehran was eager for an agreement.

    “The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly,”

    Trump wrote. He added that he would decide whether the United States engages with Tehran, though he said Washington was open to the idea. The remarks introduced the possibility of renewed talks after months of military exchanges and repeated failures to secure a lasting agreement.

    During the recovery, Bitcoin first moved above $78,000 and reached $78,940 before extending gains. A daily Binance chart on TradingView showed BTC opening at $76,842, dipping to $76,388, and later peaking at $79,325. The asset traded near $79,143 at the time of capture, representing a 3% daily gain.

    U.S. equities mirrored the cryptocurrency’s move. Approximately $570 billion returned to stocks within three hours after the session had earlier erased more than $600 billion. Technology shares had faced additional pressure after executives from artificial intelligence companies called for slower development to address safety risks, adding another layer of uncertainty for a sector that has driven much of the recent U.S. equity rally.

    However, Iranian state media rejected Trump’s claim that Tehran was seeking a quick agreement, leaving the market without confirmation from both governments. LiveSquawk separately cited Iran’s ILNA news agency as saying the United States had sought a “phased” agreement, based on information attributed to a Pakistani source. The report did not establish that Washington and Tehran had accepted final terms.

    Oil Above $100 Keeps U.S.-Iran Risk Active

    The diplomatic dispute unfolds as attacks involving Iran-aligned forces continue to pressure oil production and shipping routes.

    According to Reuters, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia. The group said it targeted aircraft hangars, radar equipment, runways, and ammunition storage sites in response to Saudi strikes in Yemen.

    In a separate attack, which Riyadh blamed on Iran-backed fighters in Iraq, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline was taken offline. The route allows oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, making it critical while traffic through the strait remains restricted.

    Traders told Reuters that an extended pipeline closure could affect as much as 4% of global oil supply. Brent crude rose more than 4% after the weekend before paring gains following Trump’s comments. It later traded near $106 per barrel, while U.S. crude remained above $100.

    For American consumers, Reuters reported that the average retail diesel price had reached a record above $6.23 per gallon. Sustained energy costs could feed inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions, creating a direct link between the conflict and the conditions facing U.S. Bitcoin investors.

    As crypto.news previously reported, Bitfinex analysts identified energy costs and real Treasury yields as restraints on Bitcoin. The analysts said an oil shock could keep inflation expectations elevated, while tighter monetary policy would reduce liquidity without resolving the loss of energy supply.

    Oman had planned to host Iranian and Gulf officials for discussions over the future operation of the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi postponed the meeting “in the interests of consensus,” without announcing a replacement date. Iran said Saudi Arabia had requested the delay. Tehran also published a list of 77 vessels it said had breached its operating rules in the strait, warning that future violations could lead to fines, detention, or confiscation.

    Bitcoin Faces Technical Resistance Near $80,000

    Technical readings show Bitcoin has returned above the center of its daily Bollinger Bands but has not cleared the upper boundary.

    • Bollinger Band midpoint: ~$78,521
    • Upper band: ~$81,035
    • Lower band: ~$76,008

    BTC’s move above the midpoint gives buyers control of the immediate range, although the upper band and recent highs create resistance between $80,000 and $81,035.

    Bitcoin price daily chart — Sep. 15 | Source: crypto.news

    A one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows the largest nearby concentration of leveraged positions just below $80,000. The brightest band appears around $79,900 to $80,000, making the area a possible target if buyers extend the advance.

    Bitcoin liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

    Several smaller liquidation pools sit between roughly $80,200 and $80,700. A clean move through that region would bring the Bollinger Band ceiling near $81,035 into focus, followed by the larger $82,000 area identified in recent Bitfinex analysis.

    Momentum Signals Remain Mixed

    Momentum remains less certain. The daily MACD line stood near 1,579, below its signal line around 2,211, while the histogram had fallen to approximately minus 631. Both MACD lines remained above zero, but the bearish crossover and red histogram bars showed that momentum had weakened after Bitcoin’s sharp August rally.

    Price action has also remained uneven since BTC first moved above $80,000. Buyers have defended pullbacks toward the mid-$76,000 area, yet several attempts to hold above $81,000 have failed. The current move has returned Bitcoin to the upper half of that range without confirming a breakout.

    Key Support Levels to Watch

    On the downside, the Bollinger midpoint near $78,521 forms the first technical support. Losing it would expose the $77,500 to $78,000 region, where the heatmap shows a series of smaller leveraged clusters.

    The largest lower liquidity concentration sits around $76,000, close to the daily lower Bollinger Band. A sustained break below that zone could expose another pool near $75,000 to $75,400.

    Fed Policy Adds Another Test for U.S. Investors

    The Iran conflict is not the only event capable of disrupting Bitcoin’s recovery. The Federal Reserve meets on Sept. 15 and 16, with its policy statement, updated economic projections, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference due on Wednesday.

    Markets had priced an 87% probability of a quarter-point increase before the meeting. Such a decision would move the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.

    Bitfinex analysts said the Fed’s projections could matter more for Bitcoin than the rate announcement itself because they will show whether officials expect one increase or a longer series of moves. Higher Treasury yields can raise the return available from government securities, increasing competition for capital held in non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

    U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds provide another measure of demand from American investors. The products attracted $986.7 million during the week ending Sept. 4, after taking in $924.5 million the previous week. Three consecutive positive weeks brought the combined inflow to about $3.8 billion.

    Fed policy, oil prices, and developments around the Strait of Hormuz will now overlap with the liquidation levels visible on the Bitcoin chart. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its decision on Wednesday afternoon, followed by Warsh’s press conference and the central bank’s updated economic projections.

  • Critical Week for Altcoins: Analyst Assesses Ethereum (ETH), XRP, SUI Outlook

    Critical Week for Altcoins: Analyst Assesses Ethereum (ETH), XRP, SUI Outlook

    A pivotal week is unfolding for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with a convergence of major financial events and key technical setups drawing intense trader focus. The calendar kicks off on September 15 with the highly anticipated Clarity Act vote, followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has issued updated technical analyses for Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Sui (SUI), highlighting specific price levels and chart patterns that could dictate near-term market direction.

    Ethereum Eyes $3,000 on Ascending Triangle Breakout

    Martinez has identified a developing ascending triangle formation on the Ethereum 12-hour chart. According to his analysis, a decisive break above the pattern’s upper resistance zone could trigger a significant upward leg. The analyst draws a historical parallel, noting that ETH previously surged approximately 31 percent in just three days following a breakout from a similar structure. Should history rhyme, Martinez projects a measured move targeting the psychological $3,000 resistance level.

    SUI Flashes Potential Reversal Signal at Key Support

    For Sui, the TD Sequential indicator on the 12-hour timeframe has presented a new signal, which the analyst suggests could indicate a possible trend reversal. This signal materialized after SUI pulled back to the critical $0.70–$0.72 support zone. However, Martinez cautions that this single indicator does not, by itself, confirm the establishment of a new uptrend, urging traders to seek additional confirmation before committing capital.

    XRP Consolidates Ahead of Potential Triangle Apex Breakout

    Martinez also highlighted a significant technical formation for XRP. In a recent post, he outlined a scenario where the asset holds above the $1.31–$1.35 support zone. If this floor remains intact, the price action could compress toward the apex of the prevailing triangle formation. The analyst identifies $1.38 as the crucial resistance level to watch. A strong breakout above this threshold would strengthen the bullish case, potentially clearing a path for a rally toward the $1.60 region. Martinez notes that while he expects price to migrate toward the triangle’s peak if support holds, no specific ultimate price target was provided in the analysis.

    Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

  • Stock Futures Today: Live Market Updates

    Stock Futures Today: Live Market Updates

    Stock futures declined early Monday as investors digested a significant shift in the artificial intelligence initial public offering pipeline amid mounting safety concerns, while oil prices surged following a critical pipeline closure in the Middle East.

    Equity Futures Slide on AI Sector Uncertainty

    S&P 500 futures lost 0.6% as of 3:06 a.m. ET, while Nasdaq-100 futures tumbled 1.44%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 50 points, or 0.1%.

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1% while the Topix gained 0.59%. The Kospi dropped 2.51%, while the small-cap Kosdaq declined 0.93%. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 0.35%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 declined 0.32%.

    OpenAI Delays IPO Plans, Anthropic Urges Caution

    OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in an interview published on Saturday that the AI startup would not go public this year. Altman said an IPO for the ChatGPT maker would now would be “ill-advised,” just one month after OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said it would go public by 2027 at the latest.

    Dario Amodei, CEO of rival Anthropic, said in an essay on Saturday that AI companies need to slow the pace of innovation for their best models due to safety risks. Amodei told CBS News on Sunday that the “toughest dilemma” about such a proposal is what would happen if China did not do the same.

    The AI boom has propelled the stock market to new heights and catalyzed a massive wave of corporate spending on technological infrastructure in recent years. However, this weekend’s developments could indicate that the size of the positive impact to the public market expected through increased efficiency and a string of major IPOs could be less clear than previously believed.

    Oil Prices Surge After Saudi Pipeline Closure

    Oil prices rose more than 2% Sunday night after Saudi Arabia shuttered a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude prices broke above $100 per barrel last week for the first time since May amid an escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

    Last week’s rally in oil prices dragged on the three major stock averages. The Dow slid 1.6%, marking its biggest weekly loss since March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed about 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.

    Federal Reserve Policy Meeting in Focus

    The Federal Reserve gathers for its September policy meeting this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a roughly 86% likelihood of a rate hike, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

    “The investor playbook from here depends on whether Fed hikes or long rates are the dominant driver of today’s tighter rates environment,” said Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investment Management.

    There are no major earnings reports or economic releases expected on Monday.

  • Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Warns on Bitcoin, Reveals Condition to Save BTC

    Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Warns on Bitcoin, Reveals Condition to Save BTC

    Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone has warned that elevated equity valuations and expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are generating strong sell signals for Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin’s Risk-Adjusted Returns Under Scrutiny

    McGlone noted that Bitcoin’s performance over the past five years has roughly matched the S&P 500 index, but with approximately three times higher volatility. He described Bitcoin as an extremely volatile and speculative digital asset that exhibits a high correlation with the stock market while competing with millions of other crypto assets.

    From a risk and portfolio management perspective, McGlone argued that Bitcoin presents a negative picture because it offers similar returns to the S&P 500 while carrying approximately three times the volatility.

    Three Key Downside Risk Factors Identified

    The analyst pointed to three factors increasing downside risks for Bitcoin:

    • Bitcoin encountering resistance around $80,000 during its recent rise
    • Futures markets pricing in approximately 70 basis points of Fed interest rate hikes over the next year
    • The S&P 500 index trading at significantly higher levels compared to its 200-week moving average

    McGlone noted that Bitcoin tends to move strongly with the S&P 500, especially during periods of decreased market risk appetite, and therefore considers BTC a high-beta asset that follows the stock market.

    Bearish Scenario: Potential Drop to $10,000

    McGlone raised a sharp long-term bearish scenario in which Bitcoin could move toward the $10,000 level, a zone that has acted as critical support multiple times in the past. A sustained decline of approximately 20% in the S&P 500 could trigger such a scenario, according to the analyst.

    However, McGlone added that for this negative scenario to be invalidated, Bitcoin needs to decouple from the stock market and consistently demonstrate strong performance. He suggested that BTC’s ability to maintain strength, particularly during a potential S&P 500 decline, could support the thesis that Bitcoin is no longer just a high-beta risk asset.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Bitcoin’s Oil Risk Extends to 2027 as IEA Cuts Supply Outlook Again

    Bitcoin’s Oil Risk Extends to 2027 as IEA Cuts Supply Outlook Again

    IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Supply Forecast, Pushes Full Gulf Recovery to 2027

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2026 global oil supply projection and now expects a full recovery of Gulf exports only in 2027, a timeline that could delay energy-driven relief in borrowing costs for leveraged Bitcoin investors.

    Supply and Demand Both Revised Lower

    In its September 11 report, the IEA projects average global supply of 100.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, down from 102 million bpd in the August 12 outlook—a downward revision of 1.3 million bpd. On the demand side, the agency forecasts global oil consumption will contract by 2.5 million bpd in 2026 versus 2025, a decline roughly 940,000 bpd deeper than previously expected.

    Weaker consumption would normally ease pressure on tight supplies. However, the IEA estimates global observed inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, signaling that reduced usage has not yet translated into physical loosening.

    Gulf Export Recovery Remains Uneven

    There are signs of improvement in trade flows. The IEA notes that increased volumes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and military-escorted shipments through the strait have helped narrow crude export losses. Yet Gulf refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas exports in August remained nearly 60% below February levels. The agency characterizes the recovery as uneven and emphasizes that the 2027 timetable remains a forecast.

    Inflation Expectations Complicate the Path to Cheaper Credit

    For investors borrowing dollars to hold Bitcoin, the connection runs through inflation and interest-rate expectations. Persistent energy-price pressure that keeps rate expectations elevated could postpone financing relief. This risk affects borrowers exposed to broader credit conditions; the IEA reports do not measure changes in Bitcoin-specific borrowing costs.

    The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework explains how short-term rates influence lending costs and how expectations of future policy affect longer-term rates and credit terms.

    University of Michigan Survey Shows Rising Inflation Expectations

    A preliminary September survey from the University of Michigan adds a cautionary signal: year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0% in August, while long-run expectations edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%. The modest move in long-run expectations warrants attention, though a single preliminary reading does not confirm a lasting shift.

    Fed Governor Waller’s Pre-IEA Assessment

    An earlier counterweight came from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. In a September 3 speech, Waller said his concern about energy costs spreading broadly into goods and services prices had not materialized so far. He identified renewed energy pressure and rising longer-term inflation expectations as risks. Waller indicated he could support holding rates steady if disinflation continued, but would consider a hike if August inflation data reversed that progress. Those conditional views preceded the IEA’s latest supply revision.

    Key Test Ahead of September Fed Meeting

    Ahead of the September 15–16 Federal Reserve meeting, the critical test for cheaper credit is whether weaker consumption and recovering flows translate into reduced inflation pressure. Sustained supply recovery and limited spillovers would strengthen the case for easing; persistent price pressure would weaken it. Falling oil demand alone offers Bitcoin borrowers no assurance of financing relief.

  • Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Rally Threatened as September 16 Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 86%

    Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Rally Threatened as September 16 Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 86%

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are bracing for a fresh macroeconomic headwind as market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have climbed sharply.

    Bitcoin Faces Key Test Ahead of September FOMC Decision

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point increase has surged in recent sessions, reflecting sticky inflation data and resilient labor-market readings that have pushed traders to reprice the terminal-rate outlook. The shift puts risk assets—including the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization—on alert for heightened volatility in the days leading up to the policy announcement.

    Rate-Hike Expectations Reaccelerate

    Fed futures now show a materially higher chance of a hike compared with a week ago, when the consensus leaned strongly toward a pause. The repricing follows a run of economic releases—including consumer-price-index and producer-price-index reports—that came in above forecast, reviving concerns that the central bank’s disinflation progress has stalled.

    Crypto Market Implications

    Bitcoin, often viewed as a liquidity-sensitive asset, has historically sold off when rate-hike expectations rise, as higher discount rates pressure valuations across the risk spectrum. Ethereum and XRP tend to exhibit even higher beta to macro shifts, amplifying downside moves during hawkish repricing episodes. Traders are monitoring key technical levels on BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and XRP/USD pairs for signs of trend exhaustion or breakout confirmation once the FOMC statement and accompanying Summary of Economic Projections are released.

    What to Watch on September 16

    • Policy rate decision: Whether the Fed raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points or holds steady.
    • Dot-plot projections: Updated median forecasts for the policy path through 2024 and beyond.
    • Chair Powell’s press conference: Tone on inflation persistence, labor-market tightness, and the reaction function for future meetings.

    Market participants will parse every word for clues on whether the hiking cycle has truly ended or if one more increase remains on the table before a prolonged pause. The outcome will likely set the near-term trajectory for digital-asset prices as well as traditional risk markets.

  • Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 87% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

    Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 87% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

    Federal Reserve officials face a critical policy test next week as financial markets now assign an 87% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting. The sharp repricing follows August consumer price index data that showed inflation remaining stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. With Bitcoin trading near $77,256, cryptocurrency traders are assessing how tighter monetary policy could influence digital asset flows.

    Markets Sharply Reprice September Hike Odds

    Rate futures indicate an 87% chance of a hike, up from 72% just a day earlier. Nearly all economists surveyed now expect a quarter-point move, a dramatic reversal from earlier consensus. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate currently sits at 3.50%–3.75%.

    Before the latest inflation report, most economists anticipated a pause, citing easing price pressures and the approaching U.S. midterm elections. Only 13 of 48 economists had penciled in a September increase. Hotter-than-expected core inflation upended that view. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI rose 3.4%, matching forecasts, while core CPI held at 2.4%, also in line with estimates.

    Heather Long: September Hike “Almost Locked In”

    Chief economist Heather Long described a September increase as “almost locked in,” warning that the risk of entrenched inflation continues to grow. Long reinforced the call on social media:

    A September Fed rate hike is almost locked in now
    85% chance the Fed hikes next week.
    It’s the right call. The risks are growing that inflation remains entrenched (or keeps broadening). Fed Chair Warsh doesn’t want to make the same mistake Powell did of waiting too long to… pic.twitter.com/RdGcjhTP4G

    — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 11, 2026

    If enacted, the move would mark the first Federal Reserve rate increase in three years.

    Traders Now See Multiple Hikes Through 2027

    The repricing extends well beyond September. Futures markets now imply at least three rate hikes through June 2027, up from two previously, with a base case of four increases by July 2027. That trajectory represents a stark turnaround from the start of 2026, when investors were pricing in four rate cuts over the same horizon.

    Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida emphasized the likelihood of a sustained tightening cycle:

    “If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones.”

    “It would not be a ‘one and done’ move.”

    The shift signals a higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook as investors brace for prolonged inflation-fighting efforts.

    Implications for Bitcoin and Crypto Markets

    Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of riskier assets, as investors can earn competitive yields from safer instruments such as government bonds. That dynamic can drain capital from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader cryptocurrency complex.

    Despite the hawkish repricing, digital assets rallied on the inflation data. Bitcoin briefly approached $77,500, while Ether climbed above $2,511, suggesting near-term momentum may be decoupling from rate expectations.

  • Bitcoin Recovers From CPI Dip as US Inflation Holds at 3.4%

    Bitcoin Recovers From CPI Dip as US Inflation Holds at 3.4%

    US Inflation Data Triggers Brief Bitcoin Dip Before Recovery Above $77,000

    Bitcoin experienced a sharp but short-lived decline toward $76,000 following the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed underlying price pressures running slightly hotter than economists anticipated. The cryptocurrency quickly reversed course, reclaiming the $77,000 level, while Ethereum and several major altcoins maintained gains throughout the trading session.

    Core CPI Exceeds Forecasts, Keeping Federal Reserve Policy in Focus

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from July’s 0.1% increase and matching consensus estimates. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation held steady at 3.4%, remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    The core inflation measure, which strips out volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% month-over-month — above the 0.2% increase most economists had projected. However, the annual core inflation rate edged down from 2.5% to 2.4%.

    Gasoline prices accounted for over one-third of the monthly headline increase, surging 3.9% and lifting the broader energy index 2.1%. Shelter costs rose 0.3%, while food prices edged up 0.1%.

    Bitcoin Volatility Reflects Trader Uncertainty on Rate Outlook

    Bitcoin initially slid to approximately $76,050 immediately after the data release before recovering to trade above $77,100. The token’s intraday range spanned $76,400 to $79,550, highlighting the divided sentiment among market participants interpreting the inflation implications for US interest rates.

    The stronger-than-expected core reading could reinforce a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve at its September 15-16 policy meeting. Elevated interest rates typically reduce the appeal of riskier assets as investors find alternative yield opportunities in safer instruments.

    Ethereum Outperforms as Broader Crypto Market Shows Resilience

    Ethereum led the major cryptocurrencies during the session, trading near $2,543 — a gain of nearly 3.2% after reaching intraday highs of $2,648. Solana advanced approximately 1.5% to around $101, while BNB climbed 1.4% to roughly $723. Dogecoin added a modest 0.5%, and XRP was little changed near $1.35.

    Notably, gains across the altcoin complex began before the CPI release, meaning they cannot be attributed to the inflation data. However, the market’s refusal to follow Bitcoin’s initial slide lower suggests the sell pressure was isolated rather than systemic.

    Key Takeaways

    • US headline inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year; monthly core CPI (0.3%) exceeded the 0.2% forecast.
    • Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $76,000 before recovering above $77,000, with an unusually wide $3,000+ intraday range.
    • Ethereum and major altcoins held gains, indicating the initial Bitcoin weakness did not trigger a broader market sell-off.
  • Bitcoin’s ‘Unusual Mix’: Bearish Inflation Print, Bullish Buyback Failure

    Bitcoin’s ‘Unusual Mix’: Bearish Inflation Print, Bullish Buyback Failure

    Bitcoin’s near-term upside faces fresh headwinds after hotter-than-expected core inflation data, but a potential failure of the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback program could strengthen the longer-term bullish case, according to a new report from European asset manager CoinShares.

    Sticky Inflation Raises Odds of Tighter Fed Policy

    In a Friday note, CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill said firmer-than-expected core inflation raises the probability of tighter Federal Reserve policy and could cap Bitcoin below $80,000 in the short term. Data released Friday showed the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from the previous month — above consensus estimates.

    According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders see an 85% chance interest rates will be higher after the Federal Reserve meets next week. Bitcoin has historically performed better in low interest rate environments.

    Treasury Buyback Failure Could Fuel Debasement Narrative

    Butterfill argued the longer-term case for Bitcoin rests on the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback program failing to bring down long-end yields — a development that could ultimately feed the currency debasement narrative that has supported both Bitcoin and gold.

    “The result is therefore a somewhat unusual policy mix for Bitcoin,” the report read. “Today’s CPI data is negative at the margin, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy and potentially limiting the immediate upside.

    “But the apparent failure of the Treasury’s current buying programme increases the likelihood of much more substantial intervention further ahead.”

    It continued: “If that happens, it could become one of the more powerful medium-term catalysts for Bitcoin.”

    Pressure Building for ‘Bazooka-Style’ Intervention

    The U.S. Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program has so far failed to materially suppress long-term yields. If yields remain stubbornly high, Butterfill said pressure will build on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to escalate to a much larger, “bazooka-style” buying program aimed at forcing borrowing costs down.

    Bitcoin recorded one of its best monthly runs in years this past August after Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks. That announcement and subsequent price surge led some market observers to declare the so-called debasement trade had returned — a strategy where investors buy assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against currency devaluation as the dollar weakens.

  • Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin’s Daily Golden Cross Fails as Hawkish Fed Expectations Trigger Pullback

    Bitcoin’s brief daily golden cross collapsed Friday evening as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) slipped back below the 200-day EMA, reversing a bullish signal that had confirmed earlier in the session. The cryptocurrency retreated to $77,438 after reaching an intraday high near $79,837, tracking a sharp repricing in interest-rate markets following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

    Rate-Hike Odds Surge After CPI Release

    The pullback coincides with a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed core monthly inflation at 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast. In response, CME FedWatch Tool data indicates the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting spiked from roughly 69% immediately after the data release to 86.5% within hours.

    A rate increase would typically trigger a risk-off move, pressuring assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks. Despite the intraday reversal, Bitcoin remains up 1.19% on the day.

    Daily Candle Structure: Volatile Round Trip

    Friday’s daily candle opened at $76,529, surged to $79,837, dropped to a low of $76,040, and settled near $77,438. That volatility was sufficient to flip the daily EMA crossover back to bearish after the 50-day average had briefly pierced above the 200-day average—a pattern traders call a golden cross, widely regarded as a strong bullish signal. Bitcoin had not printed a daily golden cross since November 2024.

    Why the Golden Cross Flickered

    A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average (the 50-day, based on the last 50 daily closes) crosses above a longer-term one (the 200-day). It is among the most watched trend signals across markets, historically preceding significant Bitcoin rallies. However, it is a lagging indicator constructed entirely from past prices. When the two averages trade in close proximity—as they do now—intraday swings can toggle the signal on and off within a single session.

    Today’s push to $79,837 lifted the 50-day EMA above the 200-day, and the subsequent retreat to $77,438 pulled it back under. For daily chart watchers, the episode underscores how fragile such crossovers can be when the averages sit near each other. The daily candle remains open, so the reading could flip again before the close.

    Underlying Trend Strength Remains Intact

    Despite the moving-average whipsaw, broader trend metrics support a constructive outlook. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength irrespective of direction, reads 45 on the daily chart—well above the 25 threshold that separates a genuine trend from noise. Positive directional movement continues to outpace negative.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator scaled 0–100, sits at 55.5 on the daily timeframe, holding on the bullish side of neutral (above 50). Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions; below 30 indicates oversold.

    4-Hour Chart: Bullish Structure Persists, Momentum Cools

    Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour timeframe never lost its golden cross. The 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, preserving a bullish structure that formed in late August. However, short-term momentum has deteriorated:

    • RSI: Dropped to 43.3, entering bearish territory.
    • Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Fired after days of compression, with volatility expanding 3.95%—a pattern that often precedes a sharp directional move, currently to the downside.
    • ADX: Stands at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, signaling a much weaker intraday trend compared to the daily reading of 45.

    The bigger picture still leans bullish. The 4-hour golden cross has held since late August, and the daily ADX at 45 confirms a robust trend is in place even as the moving-average label flips back and forth on a single volatile session.

    Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.