Daily News 19

Tag: Bitcoin

  • Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Rally May Persist Unless Debt Concerns Subside

    Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Rally May Persist Unless Debt Concerns Subside

    Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan suggests Bitcoin’s price rally could persist while U.S. debt concerns remain unresolved, pointing to a divergence between crypto regulatory expectations and actual market performance.

    In a post on social platform X, Hougan shared a chart tracking the relationship between legislative odds and Bitcoin’s price action from July 1 to September 15. The data shows the probability of the Clarity Act passing this year fell from 39% to 18% on the prediction market Polymarket. Over that same window, Bitcoin climbed roughly 38%.

    Regulatory Odds Drop While Bitcoin Rallies

    The disconnect indicates that expectations around U.S. crypto legislation are not driving Bitcoin’s recent gains. Instead, Hougan argues that worries over the U.S. fiscal trajectory and mounting debt have become a dominant force in market pricing.

    The Clarity Act is a bipartisan bill designed to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets. Its progress has stalled after a Senate cloture vote — intended to end debate and advance the bill to a full floor vote — failed to secure the necessary 60-vote threshold.

    Macro Factors Eclipse Sector-Specific News

    Hougan’s analysis underscores a broader shift: Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly correlated with macroeconomic sentiment, particularly investor anxiety over U.S. government borrowing and long-term fiscal sustainability, rather than developments specific to the crypto industry.

    Still, the firm cautions that Bitcoin’s future path depends on a wide range of market conditions, and the current dynamic could shift quickly.

    This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

  • Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Rally Could Continue Unless Debt Concerns Ease

    Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Rally Could Continue Unless Debt Concerns Ease

    Bitcoin Price Rally Driven by US Debt Concerns, Not Crypto Regulation, Says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

    Bitcoin’s recent price surge appears to be fueled primarily by mounting concerns over the United States fiscal outlook rather than progress on cryptocurrency-specific legislation, according to analysis from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

    Inverse Correlation Between Regulatory Odds and Bitcoin Price

    Hougan shared a chart on social media platform X demonstrating a striking divergence between regulatory expectations and market performance. Between July 1 and September 15, the probability of the US Clarity Act passing this year plummeted from 39% to 18% on prediction market Polymarket. During that same period, Bitcoin’s price increased by approximately 38%.

    The data suggests that market expectations regarding cryptocurrency regulatory developments are not aligning with Bitcoin’s price movement. Hougan argues that concerns about the US debt outlook have become a significant factor in current market pricing.

    Clarity Act Stalls in Senate

    The Clarity Act represents one of several legislative proposals aimed at establishing a clearer regulatory framework for crypto assets in the United States. Its progress through Congress has been hindered by procedural hurdles.

    A previous cloture vote in the US Senate failed to secure the necessary support to advance the bill to the next legislative stage. The cloture procedure is designed to end debate on a bill, paving the way for consideration by the full Senate.

    Macro Factors Trump Sector-Specific News

    Hougan’s assessment indicates that Bitcoin’s recent performance is linked not only to developments within the crypto sector but also to broader macroeconomic factors, particularly the US fiscal outlook and investor debt concerns. However, the future trajectory of Bitcoin’s price depends on numerous market conditions beyond any single narrative.

    This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

  • U.S. Diesel Prices Hit Record High as Bitcoin and Gold Struggle

    U.S. Diesel Prices Hit Record High as Bitcoin and Gold Struggle

    Diesel prices are surging globally, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has disrupted crude oil flows and injected significant risk premiums into refined product markets. Compounding the supply-side pressure, tight refinery capacity and robust demand from both freight and industrial sectors have amplified the price move, transforming a regional supply shock into a worldwide spike at the pump.

    Federal Reserve Policy Under Scrutiny Amid Supply-Driven Inflation

    The Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to raise its benchmark borrowing cost by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4% range has drawn criticism from market observers. Critics argue the hike demonstrates a policy bias toward using interest rate increases to combat inflation rooted in oil-supply shocks—a strategy some view as a fundamental mistake. Higher borrowing costs historically act as a headwind for non-yielding assets, and the current environment is no exception.

    Record Diesel Prices Create Headwinds for Gold, Bitcoin, and Tech Stocks

    Record-high diesel prices are pressuring traditional safe-haven assets and growth equities alike. Both gold and bitcoin are widely viewed as stores of value and hedges against sovereign risk. However, historical precedent shows that rising interest rates weigh heavily on cryptocurrency valuations, a dynamic clearly illustrated during the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle in 2022. Technology stocks, sensitive to discount rates and economic growth forecasts, face similar downward pressure.

    Global Central Banks Extend Tightening Cycle

    The shift toward restrictive monetary policy is not isolated to the United States. The European Central Bank has recently implemented its own rate increase, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to follow suit with a hike on Friday. Major Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, anticipate the Fed will deliver an additional 25 basis point increase at its October meeting, signaling that the global tightening cycle remains firmly in place.

  • U.S. Diesel Prices Hit Record High as Bitcoin, Gold Struggle

    U.S. Diesel Prices Hit Record High as Bitcoin, Gold Struggle

    Diesel Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions and Tight Refining Capacity

    Diesel prices are climbing sharply, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has disrupted crude oil flows and inflated risk premiums on refined products. Constrained refinery capacity worldwide, combined with robust demand from freight and industrial sectors, has amplified the price move, transforming a regional supply shock into a global price spike.

    Federal Reserve Policy Adds Pressure

    The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday rate hike underscores how policymakers remain biased toward using interest rate increases to combat inflation stemming from oil-supply shocks—a strategy some observers characterize as a mistake. Record diesel prices now present a significant headwind for gold, bitcoin, and technology stocks.

    Like gold, bitcoin is widely viewed as a store of value and a sovereign hedge. However, historically, higher borrowing costs have weighed on the cryptocurrency’s market value, as evidenced during the 2022 Fed tightening cycle.

    Rate Hike Details and Forward Guidance

    On Thursday, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, lifting the benchmark borrowing cost to the 3.75%-4% range. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both anticipate an additional 25 basis point hike in October.

    Global Central Banks Follow Suit

    Other major central banks are also tightening monetary policy. The European Central Bank recently increased rates, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to do the same on Friday.

  • Bitcoin Volatility Persists After Fed Rate Hike as Analysts Outline Key Support Levels

    Bitcoin Volatility Persists After Fed Rate Hike as Analysts Outline Key Support Levels

    Bitcoin Support Levels to Watch: Analyst Lark Davis Highlights $73K and $67K Zones Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

    Cryptocurrency investor and analyst Lark Davis has outlined key technical support levels for Bitcoin should the asset face further downside pressure. In an assessment shared via X, Davis identified the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $73,000 as the first critical line of defense, with a deeper correction potentially targeting $67,000 if that level fails.

    200-Day EMA at $73,000 Serves as Immediate Pivot

    The 200-day EMA is a widely followed long-term trend indicator used by investors to gauge macro momentum. According to Davis, he is closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold above this threshold. A sustained break below the 200-day EMA would signal weakening long-term structure and could invite additional selling pressure.

    $67,000 Marked as Secondary Support in Deeper Correction Scenario

    Should Bitcoin lose the $73,000 zone, Davis points to approximately $67,000 as the next notable support area. This level aligns with prior consolidation zones and could act as a magnet for dip buyers if a more pronounced pullback materializes.

    Macro Headwinds Cited as Catalysts for Near-Term Weakness

    Davis attributes potential continued market softness to two primary drivers: evolving cryptocurrency regulatory developments in the United States — including progress around the Clarity Act — and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Both factors have historically correlated with risk-asset volatility and could keep Bitcoin range-bound or pressured in the short term.

    Analyst Sees Low Probability of New Cycle Low

    Despite the cautious technical outlook, Davis emphasized that he does not believe current conditions are severe enough to push Bitcoin to a new cycle low. While downward pressure may persist, the structural bull case remains intact unless key support levels are decisively broken on high volume.

    What Investors Should Monitor Next

    Market participants are advised to track three core variables in the coming weeks:

    • Federal Reserve policy signals — particularly around rate-hike trajectory and inflation data
    • Legislative progress on the Clarity Act and broader U.S. crypto regulatory framework
    • Bitcoin price action around the $73,000 and $67,000 technical zones

    This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

  • Zcash Surges 23% as Bitcoin, Major Tokens Rally Despite Fed’s First Rate Hike Since 2023

    Zcash Surges 23% as Bitcoin, Major Tokens Rally Despite Fed’s First Rate Hike Since 2023

    Privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC) surged 23% over the past 24 hours, leading gains across major digital assets as Bitcoin and the broader crypto market rallied overnight into Asian trading hours Thursday. The move coincided with a recovery in U.S. stock futures following the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase since 2023.

    Market Snapshot: ZEC Leads, Bitcoin Holds Near $76K

    At the time of writing, ZEC traded near $1,369, significantly outperforming the market. Bitcoin edged up less than 1% to approximately $76,258, while Solana (SOL) gained nearly 3% to just below $100. BNB and HYPE, the native token of the crypto trading platform Hyperliquid, each added more than 2%. Ether (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) posted gains between 1% and 2%.

    Paradigm Co-Founder Highlights Zcash as Bitcoin Privacy Complement

    The sharp rally in ZEC followed public comments from Matt Huang, co-founder of prominent crypto investment firm Paradigm. In a post on X, Huang discussed Zcash’s role as a privacy layer for Bitcoin and disclosed that his firm holds a position in the token.

    “a private complement to Bitcoin.”

    Huang, whose firm owns ZEC, described the protocol as “a private complement to Bitcoin.” He expressed support for continued funding of Zcash’s core developers while advocating that governance votes by coin holders should be combined with other decision-making mechanisms for network upgrades.

    Zcash Governance and Monetary Policy in Focus

    Zcash enables users to transact without publicly revealing sender, recipient, or transaction amounts. Its community recently backed proposals aimed at accelerating payment speeds while maintaining the protocol’s scheduled reductions in new coin issuance—a disinflationary feature shared with Bitcoin’s halving cycle.

    The convergence of positive macro tailwinds, high-profile institutional endorsement, and ongoing protocol improvements appears to be driving renewed investor interest in privacy-preserving digital assets.

  • Bitcoin Absorbs Fed Rate Hike as Officials Anticipate Further Tightening

    Bitcoin Absorbs Fed Rate Hike as Officials Anticipate Further Tightening

    Bitcoin maintained its position near pre-announcement levels around $76,000 on Wednesday, showing minimal immediate reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023.

    Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points

    The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase rates by 25 basis points, setting a new target range of 3.75% to 4%. This move, typically associated with pressure on stocks and risk assets, came as the central bank continues to address persistently high inflation.

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $76,663, representing a 1.35% gain over the previous 24 hours.

    Market Reaction Largely Anticipated

    Cooper Duschang, research analyst at Talos, noted in comments shared with Cointelegraph:

    “The initial reaction suggests the Fed’s decision was largely anticipated by crypto markets. Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient, holding broadly around pre-announcement levels even as equities moved lower.”

    Equities Decline While Bitcoin Holds

    U.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday following the rate decision. Crypto analysts caution that Bitcoin’s current resilience could face fresh tests if the Fed implements additional rate hikes before year-end.

    During the FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation remains too high while the U.S. economy shows signs of strengthening. Updated economic projections indicate a majority of officials anticipate at least one more rate increase before the end of the year.

    16 out of 18 FOMC participants expected another rate increase this year. Source: US Federal Reserve

    Andrew Melville, head of research at Block Scholes, characterized a potential additional increase as a “more hawkish surprise than today’s 25bp hike.”

    Derivatives and Spot Markets Show Divergence

    While Bitcoin’s spot price remained stable, Duschang highlighted significant activity beneath the surface:

    “Perpetual futures have shifted towards net selling, led by approximately $82 million in Bitcoin and $68 million in Ether over the past hour. In contrast, Bitcoin recorded around $15.5 million of net spot buying, suggesting spot demand is absorbing some of the selling pressure coming through derivatives.”

    Duschang also pointed to notable exchange flows, with approximately 2,170 Bitcoin moving onto exchanges following the rate announcement, followed by a withdrawal of 1,260 Bitcoin.

    “Rather than a uniform risk-off response, investors appear to be actively repositioning as they digest the Fed’s message. The key question now is whether Bitcoin’s resilience and spot demand hold as attention shifts from today’s widely anticipated hike to the prospect of further tightening.”

    Analysts Warn of Repricing Risk

    Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, warned that the Fed’s renewed “hawkish stance” of “higher for longer” rates would lead to risk-on assets “repricing this new reality.”

    Related: Bitcoin awaits Fed rate decision below $76K as analysis discounts ‘dovish surprise’ odds

    Magazine: HYPE price could suffer as Binance takes its revenue: Alice Liu

  • Gold Draws $500B Amid Rising Yields, Threatening Bitcoin’s Dominance

    Gold Draws $500B Amid Rising Yields, Threatening Bitcoin’s Dominance

    Gold Defies Rising Yields as Central Bank Demand Reshapes Market Dynamics

    While precious metals show bearish technical signals on the charts, fundamental data reveals a striking divergence: gold has risen nearly 15% since late June even as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped almost 20% over the same period. This breakdown of the traditional inverse relationship between gold and yields suggests structural demand shifts are overriding rate sensitivity.

    Central Banks Drive Gold’s Yield Insensitivity

    According to TradingEconomics data, the 10-year Treasury yield surged approximately 20% from late June through the current quarter. Historically, such a move would pressure gold lower. Instead, gold advanced nearly 15% during the same window.

    The primary catalyst appears to be sustained central bank purchasing, which has weakened gold’s typical correlation with monetary policy expectations. Analysts observe that this institutional demand floor is “shifting the precious metal’s yield-sensitive dynamics and providing support to the metal despite high yields.”

    Record ETF Inflows Signal Persistent Appetite

    Chinese gold ETFs added 11 tonnes in August, marking the second consecutive monthly increase and bringing total holdings to 293 tonnes—the highest level since April and the third-highest on record. Year-to-date, these funds have accumulated 45 tonnes, with early September data indicating continued buying as domestic yields decline and equities weaken.

    Broader positioning data suggests over $500 billion has flowed into gold and silver combined, raising questions about whether metals are attracting fresh capital or diverting it from risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies.

    FOMC Positioning and Crypto Implications

    With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaching, investors appear to be using gold as a strategic hedge against potential Fed-driven yield volatility rather than a tactical trade. The metal’s resilience contrasts with Bitcoin’s 30% quarterly return, which has captured much of the safe-haven narrative in recent months.

    If yields remain elevated while the dollar weakens, analysts suggest gold could continue drawing capital, potentially creating additional headwinds for risk assets including crypto.

    Key Takeaways

    • Gold has decoupled from rising Treasury yields, gaining ~15% while the 10-year yield rose ~20% since late June.
    • Central bank demand is the primary structural driver, reducing gold’s rate sensitivity.
    • Chinese gold ETFs hold 293 tonnes, a near-record high, with 45 tonnes added year-to-date.
    • Over $500 billion has reportedly entered gold and silver markets.
    • Sustained gold strength could pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, ahead of the FOMC decision.
  • Goldman Pivots, Now Forecasts Fed Rate Hike in October

    Goldman Pivots, Now Forecasts Fed Rate Hike in October

    Goldman Sachs Revises Fed Rate Forecast, Now Expects October Hike

    Goldman Sachs has executed a significant reversal in its Federal Reserve policy outlook, now projecting that the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate once more in October. This new forecast marks a 180-degree pivot from the firm’s previous expectation of a September hike followed by an extended pause.

    Fed Signals Further Tightening After September Increase

    The shift follows the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision to lift rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. Perhaps more critically, the central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed that a strong majority of policymakers anticipate at least one additional rate increase before the end of the year.

    Warsh Strikes Hawkish Tone at Press Conference

    At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a notably hawkish stance. He stated that inflation remains “too high” and characterized the latest hike as having merely removed a “dose of accommodation”. The implication is clear: the current policy stance is still not restrictive enough, and further rate hikes remain in the pipeline.

    Markets Price In Elevated Probability of October Move

    Financial markets have quickly adjusted to the revised guidance. As of this writing, traders are pricing in just over a 50% probability of another 25 basis point hike at the Fed’s October meeting, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

    Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Macro Uncertainty

    Despite the shifting rate outlook, Bitcoin has shown resilience, continuing to trade near the $76,260 level. The cryptocurrency is up a marginal 0.5% over the past 24 hours, suggesting digital asset markets are currently digesting the hawkish pivot without significant volatility.

  • Bitcoin Unable to Activate Soft Forks Currently, Drivechain Creator States

    Bitcoin Unable to Activate Soft Forks Currently, Drivechain Creator States

    Bitcoin Soft Fork Failures Signal Frozen Upgrade Process, Drivechain Creator Warns

    Bitcoin has not activated a single proposed soft fork since Taproot went live in November 2021, a trend that LayerTwo Labs CEO and Drivechain creator Paul Sztorc says points to a fundamental inability to approve consensus changes for the foreseeable future. Speaking to crypto.news, Sztorc framed the recent collapse of BIP-110 as evidence of a systemic coordination failure that extends well beyond one disputed upgrade.

    “All soft forks since Taproot have failed to activate, and this was no exception,” Sztorc said.

    BIP-110 Collapse Illustrates Miner Signaling Deadlock

    BIP-110, formally known as the Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, sought to impose seven temporary consensus restrictions for roughly one year (52,416 blocks). The rules included an 83-byte cap on OP_RETURN outputs, a 256-byte limit on certain data pushes, and constraints on some Taproot functions. Supporters such as Bitcoin Knots maintainer Luke Dashjr argued the measures would curb arbitrary data storage linked to inscriptions and keep Bitcoin focused on monetary transactions. Critics including Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and Blockstream co-founder Adam Back countered that the proposal could undermine Bitcoin’s neutrality by rejecting transaction structures the network currently accepts.

    The proposal’s voluntary activation mechanism required 55% of blocks in a difficulty period to signal support. By August 2, that threshold had become mathematically unreachable: only 28 of the first 1,108 blocks had signaled, yielding a support rate of roughly 2.53%. When the mandatory signaling period began at block 961,632 on August 8, nodes enforcing BIP-110 began rejecting non-signaling blocks. Most miners continued building on the dominant chain, causing the minority branch to stall after producing just two blocks.

    By August 9, the minority chain remained frozen at block 961,633 while the main chain advanced 111 blocks. OCEAN’s BIP-110 endpoint showed approximately 257 petahashes per second assigned to the minority branch, while Saylor estimated that 99.85% of Bitcoin’s hash power stayed with the dominant chain. The stall was exacerbated because the minority branch inherited Bitcoin’s mining difficulty of 127.48 trillion; without sufficient computing power, its miners could not quickly produce the blocks needed to trigger a difficulty adjustment.

    Consensus Barrier Extends to OP_CAT and Other Proposals

    Sztorc emphasized that BIP-110 is not an isolated case. Since Taproot activated at block 709,632 via the Speedy Trial process, numerous proposals — including OP_CAT, BIP-360, and others — have remained in discussion without achieving activation. OP_CAT, a 13-line opcode originally present in Bitcoin’s codebase before being disabled by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2010, has garnered developer support for enabling covenants, vaults, and programmable spending conditions. Yet Sztorc argues it faces the same insurmountable coordination hurdle.

    “Nothing can — not even OP_CAT, which is just 13 lines of code and was in the original software and had lots of support,”

    he said when asked how BIP 300 could overcome resistance to consensus changes.

    “Bitcoin cannot activate any soft forks, for the foreseeable future.”

    Other proposals confront identical obstacles. BIP-360 proposes a new output type for post-quantum signatures via soft fork, offering a path for users to migrate funds to quantum-resistant addresses. Its activation would require the same broad network agreement that Sztorc believes Bitcoin can no longer achieve.

    Drivechains Aim to Shift Experimentation Off the Base Layer

    Drivechains, specified in BIP 300 and BIP 301, are designed to let developers test new rules and applications on opt-in sidechains rather than repeatedly seeking changes to Bitcoin’s base layer. Under the two-way peg design, users could move BTC between Bitcoin and independent sidechains, each with its own rules for privacy, smart contracts, faster transactions, or other functions. Sidechains would maintain separate brands and software, similar to existing systems like Liquid and Lightning.

    “Each Drivechain will have its own brand, same as Liquid, Lightning, etc.,”

    Sztorc said, comparing the model to developers launching separate altcoins.

    However, Drivechains themselves require a consensus change on Bitcoin to deploy the proposed withdrawal system. Without activation, BIP 300 cannot move forward.

    “It cannot,”

    Sztorc said when asked how BIP 300 could overcome the resistance that stopped other proposals.

    Miner-Controlled Withdrawals Remain Central Security Debate

    BIP 300 assigns Bitcoin miners a pivotal role in approving withdrawals from Drivechains. Withdrawal requests would remain pending while miners vote through Bitcoin blocks; a request receiving sufficient support over the voting period could release BTC from the sidechain peg. Sztorc argues security depends on the economic value a popular sidechain creates for miners.

    “If the chain is popular, it will be generating fees for miners. If this fee revenue is large, relative to the number of circulating coins on the L2, then it will be secure.”

    Users would need to evaluate the relationship between sidechain fee revenue, miner incentives, and the value of BTC locked in the peg. Critics warn that miners could collude to approve invalid withdrawals, while supporters contend that attacking a profitable sidechain would destroy future fee income and damage system confidence.

    U.S. Mining Operations Highlight Governance Risks

    The BIP-110 episode demonstrated how American mining operations can become directly involved in Bitcoin governance disputes. Foundry USA Pool asked its mining customers to vote on BIP-110 signaling before the mandatory period, while Strategy — a U.S.-listed company and one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders — publicly opposed the proposal through Saylor.

    The failed fork also created practical risks for holders. Because BIP-110 lacked automatic replay protection, Bitcoin developer Kevin Loaec warned that a transaction sent on one branch could potentially be copied to the other, putting pre-fork coins at risk if users attempted to move or sell assets on the minority chain without first separating them. Meanwhile, BIP-110 supporters prepared code for a possible proof-of-work change that would allow the stalled branch to abandon Bitcoin’s existing mining algorithm, though developer Chris Guida described it as a contingency with no activation date set.