Author: Evan Mercer

  • Binance Points to On-Chain IPOs as Future of Capital Markets

    Binance Points to On-Chain IPOs as Future of Capital Markets

    Binance Highlights Shift Toward On-Chain IPOs as Capital Markets Evolve

    Binance has sparked industry discussion by addressing the potential transition of initial public offerings (IPOs) to on-chain models, a move that could fundamentally reshape how capital markets operate. The conversation, highlighted in a recent Binance tweet, signals a broader trend toward blockchain adoption in traditional finance and carries significant implications for traders and investors.

    Traditional Market Structures Face Disruption

    The current cryptocurrency landscape reflects mixed sentiment alongside growing interest in innovative financial structures. Binance’s focus on on-chain IPOs underscores a shift where traditional market hours and constraints are becoming less relevant. This evolution not only highlights the changing nature of capital markets but also positions Binance as a key driver of this transformation. Such developments could attract increased institutional interest, emphasizing the need for market participants to stay informed on emerging trends.

    Key Implications of On-Chain IPO Models

    • Binance is leading discussions on transitioning from traditional IPOs to on-chain models
    • The shift signals a potential transformation in capital market structure
    • On-chain IPOs could deliver increased efficiency and transparency
    • Traders should assess how these developments may influence market dynamics
    • Growing institutional interest could accelerate the transition

    Market Context and Institutional Impact

    Against a backdrop of mixed market signals, Binance’s insights into on-chain IPOs could prove pivotal. This development points to a potential loosening of traditional market constraints, enabling more fluid capital movements. As Binance continues to innovate, its influence on market structure will be significant, presenting traders with both new opportunities and challenges. The conversation around on-chain IPOs reflects the increasing integration of blockchain technology into traditional financial practices, potentially reshaping how companies access capital and how investors participate in market opportunities.

    Regulatory Outlook and Trader Guidance

    Market participants are advised to monitor how the shift to on-chain IPOs develops and what regulatory responses may emerge. The potential for increased institutional participation could lead to volatility as new structures are adopted. Tracking Binance’s position and subsequent innovations will be essential for understanding future market trends. As with all market data, information is subject to change and should be interpreted with caution.

  • ARGUS Wallet Draws Attention After 302x Return on Arc Chain

    ARGUS Wallet Draws Attention After 302x Return on Arc Chain

    Arc Chain Wallet Turns $1,200 Into $361,000 on ARGUS, Sparking Market Attention

    A single wallet on Arc Chain has drawn significant attention after an investor achieved a 302x return on $ARGUS, turning an initial $1,200 investment into approximately $361,000. The case was first highlighted by prominent CryptoTwitter commentator @lookonchain, fueling renewed interest in the token’s ecosystem and potential trading opportunities.

    Transaction Breakdown: How the 302x Return Was Achieved

    According to on-chain data, the investor originally acquired 12.1 million ARGUS tokens for $1,200. The wallet subsequently sold 1.8 million tokens for $30,900, while retaining 10.1 million ARGUS currently valued at roughly $332,000. The combined realized and unrealized gains bring the total portfolio value to approximately $361,000.

    This concentrated win has sparked discussion across trading communities, with many speculating whether the move signals early accumulation ahead of broader market recognition or simply reflects low-liquidity dynamics.

    Token Metrics Show Stark Contrast Between Individual Gains and Market Activity

    Despite the headline-making return, ARGUS is currently trading at $0 with zero reported volume over the last 24 hours. The absence of active trading stands in sharp contrast to the paper gains visible in this specific wallet. Such discrepancies often attract speculative interest, as traders monitor for signs of liquidity returning or new exchange listings that could unlock price discovery.

    ARGUS operates on Arc Chain, a blockchain network built for decentralized applications and token transactions. The chain’s jurisdiction and architecture aim to support innovative trading and investment activity, though the token itself remains thinly traded at present.

    What Traders Are Monitoring Next

    Market participants are watching for several potential catalysts:

    • Volume resurgence: Any uptick in 24-hour trading volume could signal renewed interest.
    • Exchange listings: New centralized or decentralized exchange support would improve accessibility.
    • On-chain accumulation: Additional wallets mirroring this entry pattern may indicate coordinated interest.

    However, risks remain elevated. Extreme market volatility and the broader sentiment toward altcoins could quickly reverse any nascent momentum. Low-liquidity tokens like ARGUS are especially prone to sharp price swings on minimal order flow.

    Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

  • Crypto Trading Volume Surges as September Tests August Demand Strength

    Crypto Trading Volume Surges as September Tests August Demand Strength

    Crypto Trading Volume Faces Durability Test After August Surge

    Cryptocurrency trading volume returned sharply in August, but September is testing whether that heightened activity can hold without another broad price rally. Spot and perpetual markets expanded as Bitcoin and major tokens gained roughly 25% during the broader rebound tracked by CryptoQuant. The latest pullback now creates a cleaner test of underlying demand, allowing traders to watch whether exchange activity stays elevated without a fresh price surge.

    Macro Events Add Pressure

    Bitcoin trades near one-month lows ahead of two major policy events clustered close together. A Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting both began on September 15. Both events can affect risk appetite and short-term positioning, giving crypto trading volume a new stress test just weeks after August’s comeback.

    August Spot Volume Hits Multi-Month High

    Spot crypto trading volume reached about $75 billion on August 21, which CryptoQuant described as the second-highest daily spot total since February. Binance handled $19.4 billion of that total, while Coinbase recorded $8 billion and Gate processed $5.1 billion.

    CryptoQuant chart showing daily spot trading volume
    Source: CryptoQuant

    The composition differed from several earlier 2026 volume spikes. Those periods often appeared during sell-offs and heavy risk reduction. August activity rose during a broad crypto rally, giving the increase a stronger buying component. That difference now raises a fresh question about persistence.

    Spot Demand Outpaces Derivatives Growth

    CoinMarketCap data also show spot activity growing faster than derivatives during August. Eleven tracked exchanges processed $4.23 trillion across spot and derivatives, up 12.3% from July. Spot volume increased 17.7% month over month, while derivatives rose 11.5%.

    That shift matters because derivatives still dominate total exchange activity, accounting for 86.2% of tracked August volume. Spot represented 13.8%, up from 13.2% in July. A continued rise in spot share would show more activity moving through direct asset purchases and reduce dependence on leveraged turnover as the main source of exchange activity.

    Binance Leads as Participation Broadens

    Binance kept the largest share of exchange activity during August. CoinMarketCap placed its total market share at 43.3% across the tracked venues. CryptoQuant also showed Binance leading the August 21 spot surge.

    However, the rebound extended beyond one platform. CryptoQuant data showed rapid 30-day spot volume growth across Gate, Coinbase, OKX, Binance, and smaller exchanges. Gate recorded the fastest increase, while Coinbase and OKX also posted strong gains.

    Perpetual futures volume reached about $336 billion on August 21, the highest daily level since March. Binance handled $124 billion, while OKX recorded $46 billion and MEXC processed $30 billion. Short covering and liquidations contributed to that futures burst.

    September Pullback Tests August Comeback

    Bitcoin dropped toward $76,000 on September 15 and approached a one-month low. The token touched an intraday low near $75,560 before recovering part of the decline. The move came before the Senate’s CLARITY Act procedural vote, with the Federal Reserve also starting its two-day policy meeting the same day.

    That backdrop gives crypto trading volume a new test. August showed that exchange activity could rise with prices rather than during forced selling. September can show whether that participation survives weaker prices and higher macro uncertainty.

    If spot turnover stays elevated during the pullback, the August rebound would look broader than one event-driven session. If activity fades quickly, the $75 billion spike would stand out as a temporary burst. Exchange volume now offers a useful measure of whether recent demand can keep engaging through volatility across major centralized venues.

    Related: Ripple Lands Multi-Year Louisville Deal to Put XRP Branding on Court

  • Clarity Law Fails, Bitcoin and Altcoins Drop; Analysts Say “Don’t Worry About It,” Outline Recovery Needs

    Clarity Law Fails, Bitcoin and Altcoins Drop; Analysts Say “Don’t Worry About It,” Outline Recovery Needs

    The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed to advance in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, falling short of the 60-vote threshold required to proceed. The procedural vote tally stood at 49 in favor and 50 against, effectively stalling the comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.

    The outcome triggered immediate sell-offs across Bitcoin and altcoin markets. However, analysts speaking to The Block characterized the legislative setback as a delay rather than a structural shift for the crypto sector, emphasizing that macroeconomic forces—particularly Federal Reserve monetary policy—remain the primary driver of medium-to-long-term market direction.

    “The Failure of the Law to Pass is Not a Structural Problem”

    Arctic Digital Research President Justin d’Anethan told The Block that while the CLARITY Act’s failure was disappointing, it does not signal a fundamental market problem.

    d’Anethan pointed out that current Bitcoin price levels and previous all-time highs were achieved before the Clarity Act was in effect. He noted that institutional investors view the development not as a complete failure of the regulatory framework, but rather as a delay in the regulatory timeline. According to the analyst, interest rates and the overall monetary policy environment may be more decisive than regulatory clarity in determining the direction of the crypto market.

    Regulation Not a Key Determinant in Current Cycle

    BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas offered a parallel assessment, stating that regulatory efforts are not a key determinant in the current crypto market cycle and that the market is more sensitive to interest rates.

    Lucas identified three critical areas for investors to monitor in the coming period:

    “1) Whether the Fed’s expected interest rate hikes will mark the beginning of a longer period of tightening, 2) Whether capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will accelerate again, 3) Whether an alternative regulatory path will emerge that can proceed without requiring 60 Senate votes.”

    Lucas added that capital is not exiting the market but concentrating in specific assets. While Congress is not strictly necessary for a fourth-quarter recovery, the analyst stressed that a prerequisite for such a rebound is for interest rates not to worsen further.

    “All Eyes Are on the FED Today!”

    Market attention has now pivoted squarely to the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023 at today’s FOMC meeting, with a 25-basis-point increase widely anticipated. Futures markets are pricing in a higher than 90% probability of a hike at this session, with an additional increase projected before year-end.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Bitcoin Miner MARA Holdings Makes Millions in Bitcoin Purchases: Details Revealed

    Bitcoin Miner MARA Holdings Makes Millions in Bitcoin Purchases: Details Revealed

    MARA Holdings Adds 1,292 Bitcoin to Treasury in $98.6 Million FalconX Transaction

    Bitcoin mining firm MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) has expanded its corporate treasury with a significant Bitcoin acquisition, according to on-chain data tracked by analytics platform Lookonchain. The company purchased 1,292 BTC through institutional trading platform FalconX approximately nine hours before the data was published.

    Transaction Details and Market Context

    The acquisition carries an estimated value of $98.64 million, marking another substantial single institutional Bitcoin purchase by the publicly traded miner. MARA Holdings operates with a dual strategy: mining Bitcoin through its operations while simultaneously accumulating the asset on its balance sheet.

    Large-scale Bitcoin purchases by public companies are widely viewed as a key indicator of institutional investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. The use of FalconX—a prime brokerage catering to institutional clients—underscores the professional execution behind the transaction.

    Strategic Implications for Miner Treasuries

    Rather than immediately selling mined Bitcoin to cover operational costs, MARA and peers have increasingly adopted a long-term asset accumulation strategy. This approach treats Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, aligning corporate holdings with the very commodity the business produces.

    Market observers are monitoring the transaction not only for its potential price impact but also for signals regarding MARA’s total digital asset position. The company’s continued buying reinforces a broader trend of publicly traded firms deepening their institutional presence in the crypto ecosystem.

    Data Gaps Remain

    While Lookonchain’s on-chain analysis confirms the transaction size and counterparty, the data does not disclose:

    • The average purchase price per Bitcoin
    • MARA’s total Bitcoin holdings following this acquisition

    These details would provide further clarity on the company’s dollar-cost averaging approach and overall treasury exposure.

    This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

  • FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Expected to Hike Rates 25 Bps – Will Bitcoin Drop Again?

    FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Expected to Hike Rates 25 Bps – Will Bitcoin Drop Again?

    Fed Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points

    Crypto markets are already under pressure ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with Bitcoin trading below $75,000. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, a move that is largely priced in. Traders are now focused on Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for clues on future rate hikes and whether another wave of selling could hit Bitcoin.

    The FOMC will announce its decision at 2:00 PM EDT, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM EDT. Markets are pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, which would move the federal funds rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This would be the Fed’s first rate hike in three years.

    🚨 REMINDER: 🇺🇸 FED INTEREST RATE DECISION TODAY AT 2:00 PM ET!
    Current: 3.50% – 3.75%
    Forecast: 3.75% – 4.00%
    HIKE → MARKETS DROP HARD
    HOLD → MARKETS RALLY
    CUT → MARKETS RALLY HARD
    PRESS CONFERENCE AT 2:30 PM ET!
    pic.twitter.com/Du0sWRoIBp
    — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) September 16, 2026

    However, traders are already looking beyond today’s decision. They are watching Warsh’s comments for signals about future rate hikes. The markets have shifted from expecting two hikes to pricing in at least three by June 2027. Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida warned that another hike could follow.

    “If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones. This is certainly not one and done.”

    CLARITY Act Failure Adds More Pressure

    The Fed’s decision comes as the crypto market deals with another setback. On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, weakening a major regulatory catalyst for the market. Even after a last-minute substitute text included 126 bipartisan changes, lawmakers could not overcome major political and ideological differences. Prediction markets now put the bill’s 2026 passage odds at around 12%.

    Following the setback, the total crypto market fell more than 3%, while Bitcoin dropped below $75,000. The decline also triggered around $770 million in liquidations, adding more selling pressure from leveraged long positions.

    Bitcoin Could Face More Selling If Warsh Sounds Hawkish

    The biggest risk for crypto may not be the 25-basis-point increase itself, because traders have already priced it in. Instead, Bitcoin could face more selling if Warsh signals that more hikes are coming or the Fed’s updated projections point to tighter policy for longer. Such a signal could strengthen the dollar, lift bond yields, and push investors away from riskier assets. Bitcoin has already fallen below $76,000, now trading around $75,860.

  • Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Falls to One-Month Low: Key Drivers Behind the Drop

    Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Falls to One-Month Low: Key Drivers Behind the Drop

    Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Slumps to Four-Week Low as U.S. Demand Weakens

    Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium has dropped to its lowest level in four weeks, signaling fading U.S. buying pressure as traders digest a legislative setback for the crypto industry and brace for tighter monetary policy.

    Coinbase Premium Turns Negative

    The premium measures the price gap between Bitcoin’s dollar value on Coinbase and its USDT-denominated price on Binance. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index tracks this spread as a percentage of price. Tuesday’s reading of approximately -0.07% translates to roughly $50 on a $75,900 Bitcoin — a narrow margin that nonetheless points to relatively weak demand on the U.S. exchange.

    The discount deepened from roughly -0.02% a day earlier after the Clarity Act failed to advance on Tuesday. The move marks a sharp reversal from late August and early September, when the premium flipped positive for the first time in months as Bitcoin rallied toward $80,000. Since then, Bitcoin has retreated to around $75,000.

    Legislative Setback Weighs on Sentiment

    The failure of the Clarity Act — a bill aimed at establishing clearer regulatory frameworks for digital assets — has removed a potential catalyst for institutional inflows. Market participants had viewed legislative progress as a key driver for sustained U.S. exchange premiums, which typically reflect stronger domestic appetite.

    Fed Policy Decision Looms

    Monetary policy presents an additional headwind. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision later Wednesday, with markets widely pricing in a 25-basis-point increase that would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4%. Higher rates tend to dampen risk appetite across speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    Traders will closely monitor the accompanying policy statement and press conference for signals on the pace of future hikes, which could further influence Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory and exchange-specific pricing dynamics.

  • Singapore Jails Six Over S$4.9M Crypto Poker Heist

    Singapore Jails Six Over S$4.9M Crypto Poker Heist

    Six Malaysian men have been sentenced to prison for an armed robbery targeting a high-stakes poker game in Singapore, where the group stole approximately S$4.9 million in cryptocurrency, cash, and luxury goods. According to Singapore Law Watch, summarizing High Court proceedings, all six pleaded guilty on September 14 to armed gang robbery and money-laundering charges related to moving stolen property from Singapore into Malaysia. Wong Chi San, 35, and Goh Boon Tong, 30, received the longest terms at 12 years and 11 months each.

    Singapore crypto heist leaves S$3.21 million unrecovered

    The final loss figure presented in court exceeded the amount initially disclosed by authorities. The Singapore Police Force’s original May 2024 statement estimated the robbers took S$4.34 million in cash, cryptocurrency, and luxury watches from 11 victims at a King Albert Park residence. Later court evidence placed the stolen property at around S$4.9 million.

    Lead prosecutor Dillon Kok told the court that police had recovered approximately S$1.69 million, leaving close to S$3.21 million missing. Prosecutors said cryptocurrency accounted for most of the property taken during the April 18, 2024 robbery.

    Court reporting put the cryptocurrency stolen from the hostess at approximately S$3.6 million. The robbers also took S$210,000 in Singapore currency, roughly US$40,000 in cash, S$55,500 worth of Emirati dirham, and a Patek Philippe watch valued above S$500,000 from her. Other victims lost Rolex watches, cash, a Richard Mille watch, and smaller personal items.

    Goh’s lawyer told the court that he helped authorities recover around 800,000 USDT from approximately 1.1 million USDT transferred to him after the robbery. She described the recovery as substantial during mitigation arguments. CNA’s court report identified the USDT transactions but did not publish the wallet addresses involved, preventing the reported transfers from being independently matched to specific public blockchain addresses from the materials released.

    Robbers targeted poker games settled with cryptocurrency

    Court documents said Wong and Goh learned in November 2023 that high-stakes poker games were being hosted at the King Albert Park property. Stakes could reach several hundred thousand dollars, while players sometimes settled payments using cryptocurrency.

    After visiting the property, the pair observed that its gate and wooden door could be left unlocked while games were underway. Wong later proposed robbing the house and, with Goh, recruited Mohd Hamidon Ahmed to obtain additional men for the operation, prosecutors said. Hamidon was promised RM1.5 million, then worth roughly S$467,000, to be divided among his group.

    On the night of April 17, Wong and Goh confirmed that a poker game was taking place. After 2 a.m. on April 18, seven masked men entered the property. Three carried machetes and two had baseball bats, according to the court account.

    The group restrained the 11 people inside, taped their mouths, and searched their phones for cryptocurrency applications. Prosecutors said Wong and Goh found substantial digital-asset balances on the hostess’ phone and directed transfers to a wallet they controlled. The robbers emptied cash from a safe and searched bedrooms for more property.

    Once the robbery was complete, Wong and Goh crossed into Malaysia through Tuas Checkpoint at approximately 2:15 a.m. The remaining members traveled through Woodlands Checkpoint around 25 minutes later. Weapons and clothing used during the crime were discarded during the escape.

    Six prison terms ranged from seven years to nearly 13

    Justice Aidan Xu described the robbery as “audacious and well-planned” and said it had “disrupted the peace and security.” The judge said deterrence and punishment were required because the crime targeted people inside a private home.

    Wong and Goh each received 12 years and 11 months in prison, 24 strokes of the cane, and a S$4,000 fine. Prosecutors treated the pair as carrying the highest culpability because they planned the operation and arranged the target, recruitment, and division of proceeds.

    Hamidon, 49, received 10 years and six months in prison and 24 strokes. Kartik Palaniappan, 34, and Muhammad Tauffiq Ahmad Fauzi, 34, were each sentenced to seven years and eight months and 24 strokes. Mohd Hashim Ismail, 51, received eight years and eight months in prison but could not be caned because of his age.

    Defense lawyers argued that some of the recruited men received much smaller shares of the proceeds. Lawyers for Kartik and Hashim said each received RM100,000, while Tauffiq’s counsel said he had limited knowledge of the detailed plan. Hamidon’s lawyer told the court that his client supplied duct tape and cable ties but refused to provide weapons.

    Following the robbery, Wong transferred roughly 1.1 million USDT to Goh in Kuala Lumpur, the court heard. The pair later found buyers for part of the cryptocurrency and received RM1.49 million in cash for an unspecified quantity of USDT.

    Hamidon eventually kept RM445,000, while Kartik, Hashim, and Tauffiq each received RM100,000. Muhammad Yusuf Kassim kept RM645,000, although court evidence said only RM245,000 was intended as his personal share, with the remainder supposedly held for the group.

    Physical crypto robberies draw more scrutiny in 2026

    The Singapore case involved physical coercion to force cryptocurrency transfers, a crime type blockchain investigators frequently refer to as a wrench attack.

    Chainalysis reported in August that more than $30 million had been successfully stolen through violent crypto attacks worldwide during the first half of 2026. Its dataset recorded 46 known incidents through late June, with home invasions accounting for 37% of cases. The firm cautioned that publicly documented incidents likely understate the actual total.

    As crypto.news reported in its coverage of the Chainalysis data, such attacks include home invasions, kidnappings, and hostage situations in which victims are forced to transfer digital assets. Chainalysis found that public blockchain records can still leave investigative trails after assets are transferred under coercion.

    CertiK counted 52 verified wrench attacks during the first six months of 2026 and placed recorded financial exposure at $124.1 million. Its definition includes stolen assets, ransom demands, frozen funds, and other amounts connected to documented incidents, meaning the figure does not represent confirmed criminal proceeds alone.

    crypto.news reported that CertiK recorded 20 crypto-related home invasions in H1 2026, up from one during the same period of 2025. CertiK said public reporting and law-enforcement records formed part of its verification process.

    Singapore has dealt with separate cryptocurrency theft cases during 2026. As Singapore court sentenced a man to two years in prison in March for involvement in a cryptocurrency theft involving more than $6.9 million in digital assets.

    One suspect remains at large after six arrests

    Singapore police initially arrested two Malaysian suspects in late April 2024 after investigators identified members of the group and obtained arrest warrants. The Royal Malaysia Police arrested the pair on April 27 and April 28 before transferring them to Singapore on April 30, according to the official Singapore Police Force account.

    The six men ultimately prosecuted in Singapore were arrested in Malaysia between April and November 2024. Tauffiq was detained before boarding a flight to Kota Kinabalu, while Goh was arrested at an airport before a planned flight to Japan.

    A seventh suspect, 33-year-old Muhammad Yusuf Kassim, had not been arrested when the sentences were imposed. Court documents cited by CNA and Singapore Law Watch said Yusuf was believed to have left Malaysia for Thailand and remained at large.

  • Terra Classic Recalculated: Measuring the Real Supply Impact of LUNC Burns

    Terra Classic Recalculated: Measuring the Real Supply Impact of LUNC Burns

    Terra Classic LUNC Burn Analysis: Supply Reduction Rate and Halving Timeline

    The short answer: LUNC burns are reducing Terra Classic’s supply measurably, but slowly. Over the twelve months to September 15, 2026, roughly 39.78 billion LUNC were destroyed. Against the chain’s reported total supply of 6.449 trillion tokens on that day, that represents a 0.62% annual reduction. If this pace continues, the supply would need approximately 112 years to halve. This article walks through the calculation step by step with verifiable figures.

    Recent Trigger: Burn Tax Tripled in August 2026

    On August 2, 2026, the Terra Classic community tripled its burn tax from 0.5% to 1.5% via governance proposal 12223, the most significant change to token economics in over a year. Six weeks later, we can assess what that tripling actually delivered. The result is more sober than the announcement suggested.

    How Much LUNC Is Really in Circulation Today

    Before discussing burns, you need the correct denominator. Terra Classic has two supply figures that are frequently confused:

    • Total supply: All existing tokens. The chain publishes this directly via its public access node: 6,449,044,459,046 LUNC (retrieved September 15, 2026).
    • Circulating supply (float): The smaller figure after deducting permanently locked tokens. CoinGecko reports 5,518,614,884,728 LUNC (5.519 trillion) for the same day.

    The gap between them is 930.43 billion LUNC (14.43% of total supply). The largest portion sits in staking: 906.57 billion LUNC are bonded to validators (14.06% of all tokens). The community pool holds a modest 8.97 billion LUNC.

    Staking means tokens are deposited with a validator, secure the chain, and cannot be traded for a 21-day unbonding period. Bonded does not mean destroyed; this supply can return at any time, making the float the more honest denominator for market impact. If you want to trade LUNC, the venue decides first: which exchanges list the pair, their fees, and regulation in Germany is covered in the comparison of the best crypto exchanges.

    One critical value: the mint module’s inflation rate sits at exactly zero. Terra Classic no longer creates new LUNC. That is the precondition for burns to have any effect; on a chain issuing new tokens simultaneously, every burn calculation would be moot.

    What the 1.5% Burn Tax Actually Removes On-Chain

    The burn tax is a levy charged on every LUNC transfer on the chain; the burned share disappears irreversibly. The rate is a protocol parameter readable directly from the node: 0.015 (1.5%) (retrieved September 15, 2026).

    The difference between collected and burned matters. Of the 1.5%, 1.2 percentage points are actually destroyed under the current resolution; the remainder flows into other chain pools. In practice: sending LUNC worth €1,000 incurs a €15 levy, of which €12 is permanently removed from supply.

    What the tax does not capture matters just as much. It applies only to on-chain movements. Trading inside a centralized exchange runs on internal books and never touches the chain. This is the construction’s weak point: the largest part of LUNC volume happens on trading venues, and that volume pays no burn tax.

    The stock fills a hall, the furnace is the size of a door: that ratio decides every burn calculation.

    Why Tripling the Burn Tax Did Not Triple the Burn

    Anyone who triples the tax rate expects roughly three times as much supply burned. That expectation has been testable since early August. Monthly figures come from the supply history that netsupply.org keeps for Terra Classic (retrieved September 15, 2026).

    • July 2026 (last full month at 0.5%): 1.62 billion LUNC burned.
    • August 2026 (first full month at 1.5%): 2.62 billion LUNC burned.

    That is a 62% increase, not 200%. Arithmetically, the tripled rate should have produced around 4.86 billion; it reached 54% of that.

    The comparison becomes more sobering when using the pre-increase average. Across the eleven months from September 2025 to July 2026, the average stood at 3.28 billion LUNC per month. August 2026 comes in 20% below that average despite the tripled tax rate.

    September provides perspective. By the 15th, 1.94 billion LUNC had been burned. Extrapolated to a full month, that gives around 3.88 billion — 18% above the eleven-month average. This projection is explicitly from half a month, not a final monthly result.

    Both readings lead to the same corridor: whether using August or the September projection, the annual rate stays between 0.49% and 0.72% of total supply. The obvious explanation: a higher levy per transfer makes moving tokens more expensive, so expensive moves happen less often. The tax base shrinks while the rate rises.

    The Binance Burn: 334.87 Million LUNC and Its Impact on Circulation

    Alongside the burn tax, a second, more visible source exists: since late 2022, Binance has burned trading fees accruing in LUNC spot and margin trading monthly. On September 1, 2026, the exchange reported its 48th monthly burn of 334.87 million LUNC (calculated from August fees). Cumulatively, the exchange stands at more than 87.76 billion LUNC; individual trackers arrive at up to 89.5 billion depending on which addresses they count.

    334.87 million sounds substantial. In proportion, it shrinks: against the float of 5.519 trillion LUNC, it amounts to 0.00607% per month. Extrapolated to a year, the Binance burn alone accounts for 0.073% of the float.

    The dollar value clarifies further. At a LUNC price of $0.0000493 on September 15, 2026, one million LUNC costs about $49. The entire monthly burn from the world’s largest crypto exchange therefore carries a value of roughly $16,500 — the amount destroyed by an event reported worldwide every month.

    Binance accounts for around 10% of the total burn over the past twelve months. The remaining 90% comes from the chain’s burn tax and voluntary burns by projects and holders. Anyone mistaking the attention paid to the monthly Binance report for its effect is looking at the smaller lever.

    Run the Numbers: Halving the Circulating Supply at Today’s Pace

    Given 39.78 billion LUNC burned in twelve months and a total supply of 6.449 trillion, the annual rate is 0.617%.

    At a constant rate, supply shrinks exponentially because every burn acts on a smaller remainder. The resulting halving period is around 112 years. Using the weaker August figure extends that to 142 years; using the September projection shortens it to 96. The corridor sits at roughly a century.

    For context: for the float to fall to one trillion LUNC (which would bring the frequently quoted one-cent-per-token mark within arithmetic reach), more than 1,100 years would pass at the Binance pace alone. Across all burn sources combined, the order of magnitude stays in the hundreds of years.

    These figures are no price forecast and say nothing about where price is heading, because that depends on demand, not supply alone. They show the order of magnitude of the supply effect — the only question that can be calculated. Whatever price expectations analysts derive from it is their assessment, not a property of the burn mechanism.

    What Has Actually Been Burned Since May 2022

    The overall balance since the May 2022 collapse varies by source: 452 to 457.5 billion LUNC, depending on which addresses are counted as burn addresses. The difference of ~5 billion tokens looks large but changes nothing in the final result.

    The cross-check works: adding the burned 452–457.5 billion back onto today’s total supply of 6.449 trillion gives an original supply of 6.901–6.907 trillion LUNC. The post-hyperinflation supply lay in exactly that order of magnitude. The two independently collected figures confirm each other.

    That implies a share of 6.55–6.62% of the original supply destroyed in four years and four months. On average, that’s ~104 billion LUNC per year — far more than the 39.78 billion of the past twelve months. The pace has slowed to roughly a third rather than picking up. The reason is plain: the big burns fell in the years with high trading volume and high attention.

    The result of this calculation is a span of time in the end, not a quantity.

    Why Deflationary and Scarce Are Two Different Things

    Deflationary for a token simply means supply falls over time. Terra Classic meets that condition demonstrably: the chain creates nothing new, and burning continues. For the twelve months to mid-September 2026, supply history shows a decline of 0.6% in total supply and 0.2% in the float.

    Scarce is something else. Scarcity arises when available supply is small relative to buyer demand. With 5.5 trillion tokens in circulation and a market cap around $272 million, Terra Classic is the opposite of scarce, even after another decade of burning.

    Both hold simultaneously: supply is falling, but on a scale that does not move the price. Anyone holding LUNC or looking to buy should avoid pinning the decision on the burn mechanism. The mechanism works as described; it merely operates on a timescale that matches no investment horizon.

    How to Check the Burn Figures Yourself in Five Minutes

    Every figure in this article is openly available; you need no account. That is the real advantage of a public chain over corporate accounts.

    • Total supply: Query Terra Classic’s public access node for the denomination uluna. The answer arrives in micro-LUNC; divide by one million for whole tokens.
    • Tax rate: The same node returns the burn tax parameter (currently 0.015).
    • Monthly figures: The supply history at netsupply.org sets burns per month against supply change.
    • Circulating supply: Comes from market data providers like CoinGecko — the only quantity here resting on a methodological decision instead of a chain value.

    Three common mistakes:

    1. Confusing total supply with circulating supply, distorting burn share by ~14%.
    2. Equating levy collected with amount burned, though only 1.2 of 1.5 percentage points are destroyed.
    3. Extrapolating a single strong month across a year, producing the tenfold figures circulating in forecast pieces.

    What a LUNC Holding Means for Your Taxes in Germany

    For the tax office, a burn is initially a non-event. Your tokens stay in your wallet; nothing is sold or allocated. A process reducing other holders’ supply triggers no taxable event for you.

    German tax law becomes relevant only on a sale or swap. Under the tax authorities’ view, crypto assets count as other economic goods; gains fall under private disposal transactions per Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. Holding longer than a year means no income tax on the gain. Within the one-year period, a gain stays untaxed only if the sum of all private disposal transactions that year stays below the €1,000 exemption threshold. Exemption threshold means: one euro above it, and the entire amount is taxable.

    The tricky part with Terra Classic is allocation. Anyone who bought in tranches over years must evidence the sequence per wallet; the tax administration accepts the FIFO method (tokens bought first count as sold first). The 1.5% burn tax on a transfer is a transaction cost, not a separately claimable loss. Which tools keep this history cleanly and produce a report a tax adviser will accept is covered in the comparison of crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers. That replaces no tax advice but saves manual reconstruction.

    Key Takeaways: LUNC Burns in Perspective

    • Always measure the burn against supply, never in absolute numbers. 334.87 million LUNC/month is 0.006% of the float and ~$16,500 in value. Check the denominator first on every burn report. Which venue lists which pair at which fees often decides your costs more than any burn: comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
    • Keep your purchase history for as long as you hold LUNC. The one-year period and the €1,000 exemption threshold decide your tax burden; both require complete acquisition data. A tax tool with a portfolio tracker handles FIFO allocation.
    • Separate custody from the trading decision. Anyone holding tokens over years to reach the holding period should avoid leaving them on an exchange permanently. Which wallet supports Cosmos-based chains like Terra Classic is shown by the comparison of software wallets.

    As of September 15, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.

  • Bitcoin Holds $75,900 as Market Cap Falls 4.70%, Charts Split

    Bitcoin Holds $75,900 as Market Cap Falls 4.70%, Charts Split

    Bitcoin Price Analysis: $75,926 Caught Between Daily Uptrend and Hourly Bearish Structure

    As of September 16, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $75,926.01, trapped in a technical standoff. The daily chart maintains a constructive long-term structure, while the hourly timeframe has already flipped bearish. The broader cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with total market capitalization declining 4.70% over the past 24 hours.

    Key Market Snapshot

    • Bitcoin Price: $75,926.01 (September 16, 2026)
    • 24-Hour Market Cap Change: -4.70%
    • BTC Dominance: 58.49%
    • Fear & Greed Index: 51 (Neutral)
    • Daily ATR14: $2,163.62 (elevated volatility)

    Daily Timeframe: Uptrend Intact but Momentum Fading

    Bitcoin’s daily trend remains structurally sound. Price sits above the EMA50 ($73,581.64) and EMA200 ($72,042.87), confirming the medium- and long-term uptrend persists. However, price has slipped below the EMA20 ($76,891.81), signaling cracked short-term momentum despite the bigger trend holding.

    Momentum Indicators Show Deceleration, Not Reversal

    • Daily RSI14: 49.26 — dead center, no conviction either way
    • MACD Line: 1,003.27 (above prior positive territory)
    • MACD Signal: 1,800.67 (line crossed below signal)
    • MACD Histogram: -797.41 (negative, momentum decelerating)

    The MACD configuration depicts a market losing steam rather than collapsing — momentum decelerating inside an uptrend, not reversing outright.

    Bollinger Bands and Key Pivot Levels

    Level Price
    Bollinger Upper Band $80,893.42
    Bollinger Mid-Band $78,088.60
    Daily Pivot $75,831.51
    Current Price $75,926.01
    Support S1 $75,552.02
    Bollinger Lower Band $75,283.78
    Resistance R1 $76,205.50

    Price has drifted into the lower third of the daily Bollinger Band range without breaching it. The daily ATR14 of $2,163.62 confirms elevated volatility — swings of this magnitude are the norm, not noise. Bitcoin is holding just above the daily pivot with resistance at R1 and support at S1, creating a tight, undecided zone.

    Hourly Chart: Confirmed Bearish Structure

    The hourly timeframe has flipped decisively bearish. Price trades below all three key exponential moving averages, stacked in textbook downtrend formation:

    • H1 EMA20: $76,162.11
    • H1 EMA50: $76,748.53
    • H1 EMA200: $77,750.43

    Hourly RSI14 at 42.46 leans bearish without reaching oversold territory, leaving room for further downside before any stretched-condition bounce becomes likely.

    Hourly MACD Shows Faint Bullish Divergence Attempt

    • MACD Line: -362.40
    • MACD Signal: -436.20
    • MACD Histogram: +73.80 (positive tick)

    The histogram has ticked positive — a small bullish crossover attempt unfolding inside an otherwise bearish setup. This signal typically appears when short-term buyers attempt to stall a decline rather than reverse it. The hourly pivot sits at $75,947.85 with resistance at R1 ($76,075.70) and support at S1 ($75,798.16), a narrow band effectively boxing price in.

    15-Minute Chart: Execution Context Only

    The 15-minute timeframe offers execution context rather than directional bias. It remains neutral and compressed, more useful for timing entries than reading the broader trend.

    • 15m RSI14: 51.43 (mildly constructive)
    • 15m MACD Histogram: +6.58 (hinting at short-lived intraday bounce)
    • EMA20: $75,900.04 | EMA50: $75,978.42 | EMA200: $76,765.24
    • 15m Pivot: $75,910 | R1: $75,944.01 | S1: $75,892

    The extremely tight range reflects the broader stalemate rather than resolving it.

    What Would Flip the Bias

    Bullish Reclamation Scenario

    Reclaiming the daily EMA20 ($76,891.81) would flip the bias back to bullish. Buyers must first push through daily R1 ($76,205.50) to open a path toward the Bollinger mid-band at $78,088.60. For this to begin, the hourly chart must invalidate its bearish regime — a close back above the H1 EMA20 ($76,162.11) and H1 EMA50 ($76,748.53) would be the first real sign the pullback is over.

    Bearish Extension Scenario

    A daily close below S1 ($75,552.02) and through the lower Bollinger Band ($75,283.78) would confirm the pullback is turning structural. Next reference points: daily EMA50 at $73,581.64 and EMA200 at $72,042.87. The hourly regime already supports this scenario with price stacked below all three EMAs. Losing the 15-minute pivot support at $75,892 with volume would confirm intraday buyers have abandoned the zone.

    Positioning and Risk Assessment

    Bitcoin currently reflects a market that has not made up its mind. The daily trend structure holds, but momentum indicators and the entire hourly timeframe lean against the bulls. Layer on a broader market that shed 4.70% of total capitalization in a single day, plus political catalysts — the Clarity Act and midterm outcome risk flagged by CNBC — and this is not a one-directional environment.

    With daily ATR above $2,100, volatility is real. A Neutral Fear & Greed reading of 51 suggests no crowd extreme to fade in either direction yet. The sensible approach: let pivot levels and EMA reclaim or loss points dictate bias rather than assuming either scenario is the default outcome.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the Bitcoin price today?

    As of September 16, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $75,926.01. The total crypto market capitalization is down 4.70% over the past 24 hours, with BTC dominance at 58.49%.

    Is Bitcoin in an uptrend or a downtrend right now?

    It depends on the timeframe. The daily chart shows an intact uptrend with price above the EMA50 and EMA200, while the hourly chart has already turned bearish with price below all three key EMAs. This divergence is the central tension in the market right now.

    What are the key levels to watch?

    On the upside, reclaiming the daily EMA20 at $76,891.81 and the daily R1 at $76,205.50 would be a bullish signal. On the downside, a close below S1 at $75,552.02 and the lower Bollinger Band at $75,283.78 would suggest a deeper correction toward the EMA50 at $73,581.64.

    What does the Fear & Greed Index say about current sentiment?

    The index reads 51, squarely in Neutral territory. This indicates the market has not capitulated despite the 24-hour drawdown, and there is no extreme sentiment to fade in either direction.


    Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptocurrency. The analysis provided is not indicative of future results. Investing in crypto assets and financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision.

    Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.