Daily News 19

Tag: CryptoQuant

  • Bitcoin Bullish Phase Forms, but Overbought Conditions Signal Caution

    Bitcoin Bullish Phase Forms, but Overbought Conditions Signal Caution

    Key Highlights

    • CryptoQuant analysis indicates Bitcoin has exited extreme bubble-or-crash conditions and is gradually approaching a full-fledged bullish rally after a period of correction and consolidation.
    • JPMorgan reports institutional investors are more defensively positioned toward Bitcoin than gold, with heavy put-option activity around ETFs such as BlackRock’s IBIT creating potential for $1 trillion in hedge unwinding and short-covering pressure if prices rise.
    • Technical indicators flash mixed signals: Bitcoin trades near $78,241 with RSI in overbought territory and widening Bollinger Bands signaling elevated volatility, while macro headwinds including a Fed rate hike and stronger dollar cloud the Q4 outlook.

    Bitcoin Exits “Weakness Zone” as Cycle Structure Shifts

    The digital asset market is undergoing a notable sentiment shift in the second half of 2027. After failing to breach a long-standing resistance level during the first half of the year, Bitcoin ($BTC) appears to be transitioning toward a bullish phase, according to a recent analysis by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm’s bubble-versus-crash market structure indicator shows that the extreme conditions historically associated with either a speculative bubble or a severe crash have dissipated.

    Bitcoin has already navigated a period of correction and consolidation, yet it has not experienced the kind of extreme speculative mania that typically marks major cycle tops. This suggests the asset may still have room to enter a stronger upward trend. As CryptoQuant stated directly in its report:

    The full-fledged bullish rally has not yet begun. Currently, it is in the process of gradually approaching that stage.

    Institutional Positioning: Bitcoin vs. Gold Dynamics

    Adding weight to the constructive outlook, JPMorgan has highlighted a striking divergence in institutional positioning. The bank notes that investors are currently more defensively positioned toward Bitcoin than toward gold. This defensive stance manifests in elevated short interest and significant put-option activity around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, most notably BlackRock’s IBIT.

    While gold ETFs have recovered more of their 2026 outflows, Bitcoin carries relatively heavier bearish hedging. However, JPMorgan emphasizes that this hedging does not necessarily reflect outright bearish conviction. Instead, it creates a coiled spring effect: if Bitcoin rallies, these protective hedges could be unwound rapidly, generating additional buying pressure. The potential market impact of such hedge unwinding and short covering is estimated to be worth approximately $1 trillion.

    Technical Crosscurrents: Overbought RSI Meets Expanding Volatility

    At press time, Bitcoin was changing hands at $78,240.79, representing a 2.5% gain over the preceding 24 hours. Despite the upward momentum, technical indicators are flashing caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, a classic warning sign that bears may attempt to pull back the recent advance. Simultaneously, widening Bollinger Bands indicate that volatility is expanding significantly, suggesting the current price action may be unstable.

    These conflicting signals—bullish structure on-chain versus overbought momentum and rising volatility on the chart—create a tug-of-war that traders will need to navigate carefully in the near term.

    Macro Headwinds Complicate Q4 Outlook

    Further complicating the picture, a recent report from AMBCrypto projects a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis-point rate hike, rising Treasury yields, and a strengthening U.S. dollar are converging to threaten global liquidity and risk-asset appetite. These macroeconomic forces could act as a ceiling on Bitcoin’s upside, even as on-chain fundamentals and institutional positioning improve.

    Why This Matters

    The convergence of improving on-chain market structure, massive institutional hedge positions, and tightening macro liquidity creates a high-stakes inflection point for Bitcoin. The CryptoQuant indicator suggests the worst of the bearish structural damage is in the rearview mirror, while the JPMorgan data reveals a Wall Street positioning that is defensive but not defeatist—potentially setting the stage for a violent short-covering rally if momentum sustains. However, the overbought RSI, expanding Bollinger Bands, and the Fed’s hawkish trajectory represent genuine headwinds that could trigger a pullback before any “full-fledged” rally materializes. Market participants should monitor the interplay between ETF flow data, put/call ratios, and the dollar index for clues on which force prevails in Q4 2027.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Has the Bitcoin bull market officially started according to CryptoQuant?

    No. CryptoQuant explicitly states that “the full-fledged bullish rally has not yet begun” and that the market “is in the process of gradually approaching that stage.” The firm’s bubble-versus-crash indicator shows extreme conditions have faded, but the decisive upward phase has not yet arrived.

    Why does JPMorgan say institutions are more defensive on Bitcoin than gold?

    JPMorgan observes heavier bearish hedging—specifically elevated short interest and put-option activity—around Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT compared to gold ETFs. Gold ETFs have recovered more of their 2026 outflows, indicating greater comfort, while Bitcoin’s defensive positioning reflects uncertainty but also creates potential fuel for a rally through hedge unwinding.

    What are the main risks to Bitcoin’s price in Q4 2027?

    The primary risks are technical and macroeconomic. Technically, the RSI is in overbought territory and Bollinger Bands are widening, signaling potential for a pullback and high volatility. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike, rising Treasury yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar threaten liquidity and risk-asset demand, according to AMBCrypto’s analysis.

  • XRP Slides Below $1.30 Support as Traders Turn Bearish Short-Term

    XRP Slides Below $1.30 Support as Traders Turn Bearish Short-Term

    Ripple’s XRP token suffered a sharp 9.82% single-day decline on Tuesday, September 15, dropping from $1.42 to $1.28. The sell-off caught many market participants off guard, as the altcoin had spent much of late August repeatedly testing the $1.45 local resistance zone.

    Derivatives Data Signals Waning Speculative Interest

    According to data from CryptoQuant, XRP’s Open Interest (OI) has contracted significantly over the past month. OI fell from $1.128 billion in late August to $871 million at the time of writing, representing a 23% decline equivalent to roughly $257 million.

    This reduction in open derivatives contracts coincided with XRP’s rejection from the $1.50 higher-timeframe supply zone. The data suggests that derivatives positions were either voluntarily closed or forcibly liquidated in large numbers. The combination of decreasing speculative interest and a price slide below the $1.30 support level paints a cautious picture for the near term.

    Institutional Demand vs. Market Headwinds

    On-chain metrics reveal a divergence between institutional appetite and price action. Throughout September, XRP spot ETF flows have remained positive, with growing fund balances acquiring more tokens and reducing available supply.

    Despite this institutional demand, price action has lagged. AMBCrypto reported earlier this month that the disconnect was partly attributed to declining Bitcoin (BTC) prices, as the broader market priced in increasing odds of a rate hike.

    Key Technical Levels Under Pressure

    The $1.30 level had been identified as a critical short-term support zone. However, aggressive selling in the futures markets—accompanied by the declining Open Interest—overwhelmed buyers, causing XRP to lose this foothold in recent sessions.

    Daily Timeframe Structure and Fibonacci Analysis

    Analyzing the XRP/USDT pair on TradingView, the daily swing structure remains technically bullish. An earlier downtrend established a lower high at $1.184 (dotted green line), which was subsequently breached by the August rally, flipping the market structure to the upside.

    Price action has since tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At the time of writing, the former $1.30 support is being retested as resistance. Without a renewed influx of strong demand across both spot and futures markets, XRP could continue its retracement toward the $1.14 level.

    Exchange Supply Ratio Holds Steady

    The exchange supply ratio—which measures the proportion of XRP’s circulating supply held on centralized exchange wallets—declined steadily from April through July. Since then, the metric has stabilized around 2.6%.

    If the ratio resumes its previous downtrend, analysts typically interpret it as a sign of accumulation and a shift of coins into cold storage. Conversely, a further price decline accompanied by a rising supply ratio would undermine the current bullish bias, which has already been damaged by the rejection at the key $1.50 supply zone.

    Summary

    • XRP failed to breach the $1.50 supply zone and dropped below the $1.30 support level.
    • Derivatives data shows increased sell pressure and declining speculative interest, signaling short-term bearish sentiment.
    • Spot ETF inflows remain positive, highlighting a divergence between institutional accumulation and current price weakness.
    • Technical structure suggests a potential retracement toward $1.14 if buying pressure does not return.
  • Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Surpass $90K by November on This Setup

    Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Surpass $90K by November on This Setup

    Bitcoin Analyst Predicts $90K by November Amid Bearish Sentiment

    Trader Matthew Hyland argues that Bitcoin is currently sitting at a daily cycle low with a bullish divergence forming on the charts, forecasting prices above $90,000 by early November. His call comes while BTC trades near $76,000, down sharply after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, and as the market’s most vocal participants remain predominantly bearish.

    Conflicting Technical Outlooks

    Posting on X, Hyland noted that bears were getting excited at what he considers a daily cycle low, with a bullish divergence setup forming underneath the price action.

    “See ya at $90k+ by early November,” he wrote.

    Swing trader Roman replied, “Yeah, part of me really thinks this was a low,” with Hyland acknowledging that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could fall further, though he pointed to liquidity clustered around $75,000.

    “So far it was just a liquidity grab IMO,” he stated, adding that there was “not really much liquidity below” that level.

    Hyland added that current prices look solid to him, even though most bears still aren’t buying the bottom narrative and are hoping for a much deeper decline.

    That view contrasts sharply with more pessimistic calls on X. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has lost its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and wrote:

    “a drop to $70K-$72K zone is highly likely before any reversal.”

    Fellow market watcher Crypto Patel has been tracking the bearish move since Bitcoin fell from $82,500 to roughly $74,900 following a rejection near an $83,000 bearish order block on the daily chart. He maintains a $50,000 target unless Bitcoin closes above $83,000 on a higher timeframe.

    On-Chain Data Points to Mid-Cycle Floor

    Taking a different approach, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech focused on Bitcoin holdings rather than price structure. They observed that the 6- to 12-month supply band has climbed to 30.8% of realized cap, up from 16.2% in December last year—a pattern that aligned with the last three Bitcoin bottoms.

    The analyst characterized this as a bullish setup but stopped short of declaring it the cycle low outright, noting that the original cryptocurrency is still down nearly 40% from its peak.

    “this reads as mid-cycle floor building, not the cycle low.”

    CLARITY Act Failure Triggers Capitulation

    At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $76,000, down about 1.5% in 24 hours and nearly 5% over the past week, though still up close to 19% across the last 30 days.

    The decline follows Tuesday’s Senate vote, where cloture on the CLARITY Act failed to secure the 60 votes required to advance the legislation. As reported earlier by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin short-term holders sent more than 23,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss in the aftermath, totaling nearly $1.8 billion and marking the largest capitulation event in approximately a month.

  • Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Falls to One-Month Low: Key Drivers Behind the Drop

    Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Falls to One-Month Low: Key Drivers Behind the Drop

    Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Slumps to Four-Week Low as U.S. Demand Weakens

    Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium has dropped to its lowest level in four weeks, signaling fading U.S. buying pressure as traders digest a legislative setback for the crypto industry and brace for tighter monetary policy.

    Coinbase Premium Turns Negative

    The premium measures the price gap between Bitcoin’s dollar value on Coinbase and its USDT-denominated price on Binance. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index tracks this spread as a percentage of price. Tuesday’s reading of approximately -0.07% translates to roughly $50 on a $75,900 Bitcoin — a narrow margin that nonetheless points to relatively weak demand on the U.S. exchange.

    The discount deepened from roughly -0.02% a day earlier after the Clarity Act failed to advance on Tuesday. The move marks a sharp reversal from late August and early September, when the premium flipped positive for the first time in months as Bitcoin rallied toward $80,000. Since then, Bitcoin has retreated to around $75,000.

    Legislative Setback Weighs on Sentiment

    The failure of the Clarity Act — a bill aimed at establishing clearer regulatory frameworks for digital assets — has removed a potential catalyst for institutional inflows. Market participants had viewed legislative progress as a key driver for sustained U.S. exchange premiums, which typically reflect stronger domestic appetite.

    Fed Policy Decision Looms

    Monetary policy presents an additional headwind. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision later Wednesday, with markets widely pricing in a 25-basis-point increase that would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4%. Higher rates tend to dampen risk appetite across speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    Traders will closely monitor the accompanying policy statement and press conference for signals on the pace of future hikes, which could further influence Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory and exchange-specific pricing dynamics.

  • Michael Saylor Calls Bitcoin ‘digital capital’ as BTC Bull Case Faces Reality Test

    Michael Saylor Calls Bitcoin ‘digital capital’ as BTC Bull Case Faces Reality Test

    Michael Saylor Positions Bitcoin as ‘Digital Capital’ and Potential Global Reserve Asset

    Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor continues to advocate for Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term store of value, recently outlining an investment thesis that frames the cryptocurrency as “digital capital” and a potential new global reserve asset.

    Why Saylor Calls Bitcoin an Open Global Reserve Asset

    According to Strategy, Bitcoin combines qualities found across traditional assets—scarcity, portability, divisibility, global liquidity, independent verification, and the ability to transfer ownership without a central issuer. Saylor argues that instead of viewing Bitcoin mainly as a payment network, investors should consider it as a store of wealth and potential hedge against the loss of purchasing power.

    However, Saylor made clear that in no sense did he argue that Bitcoin must replace the dollar, banks, or traditional financial markets. Instead, he believes Bitcoin could capture a portion of the monetary premium held in assets such as gold, real estate, equities, bonds, and collectibles.

    In a previous report published by AMBCrypto, Saylor called Bitcoin “digital monetary energy” and stated:

    Bitcoin is the engineering solution to the problem of money.

    Four-Year Investment Horizon and Historical Returns

    Beyond theoretical frameworks, Saylor highlighted a four-year investment horizon by analyzing Bitcoin’s rolling historical returns through September 4, 2026:

    • Median one-year total return: approximately +97.7%
    • Median two-year total return: approximately +272.2%
    • Median three-year total return: approximately +481.7%
    • Median four-year total return: approximately +1,301.7%

    Volatility remains significant. Bitcoin’s worst one-year period lost 83.6%, while the worst four-year period still returned approximately +32.6%.

    According to the Strategy report, Bitcoin has delivered a 62.8% annualized return over the past 10 years and 37.2% since Strategy’s “Bitcoin Standard Era” began in August 2020.

    Yet as of September 4, 2026, Bitcoin was 36.1% below its all-time high, with a historical maximum drawdown of roughly 93.1%. Strategy itself sold 6,916 BTC in 2026 alone, though a recent purchase of 4,603 BTC on August 31 suggests renewed buying momentum.

    Bitcoin’s Reality Test: Tug-of-War Between Long-Term Buying and Short-Term Selling

    At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $77,106.64 after a modest 24-hour drop but a hike of over 22% in the past month. The asset remains caught between strong long-term accumulation and short-term selling pressure.

    Market dynamics reflect mixed signals: U.S. CPI met expectations overall, but hotter core inflation raised concerns about higher-for-longer rates, pushing BTC to $76,700 before recovering toward $80,000 and falling back into the $77,000s.

    While Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw three consecutive weeks of inflows and long-term investors continued accumulating, weak spot demand, Binance’s two-year-high BTC holdings, and rising futures selling are adding downward pressure.

    CryptoQuant summarized the shift in market psychology:

    Investor sentiment has shifted from FOMO to loss aversion.

    Key Takeaways

    • Saylor does not suggest Bitcoin must replace the dollar, banks, or traditional financial markets.
    • Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between strong long-term buying and short-term selling pressure.
  • 241 Billion Shiba Inu Netflow Threatens Rally

    241 Billion Shiba Inu Netflow Threatens Rally

    Shiba Inu Rally Stalls as Exchange Inflows Signal Rising Sell Pressure

    Shiba Inu ($SHIB) opened the session with a bullish advance of roughly 4%, but on-chain data suggests the uptick may be losing steam as traders move large volumes of tokens back onto trading platforms.

    Exchange Netflow Turns Sharply Positive

    According to the latest figures from CryptoQuant, Shiba Inu recorded a net exchange inflow of 241,877,000,000 $SHIB over the past 24 hours. A positive netflow of this magnitude typically signals bearish sentiment, as it indicates that the volume of tokens deposited to exchanges for selling far exceeds the amount withdrawn for accumulation.

    The data implies that market participants are opting to realize gains following the recent price recovery rather than add to positions. With sellers dominating order flow, the path of least resistance for $SHIB appears tilted to the downside in the near term.

    Price Action Reverses Intraday

    Consistent with the on-chain shift, $SHIB erased its early gains and slipped into negative territory. As of the latest print, the token trades down approximately 0.45% on the day, underscoring how quickly exchange-driven supply can overwhelm buying interest.

    Market Watchers Await Flow Reversal

    Traders are now monitoring exchange netflow metrics for signs of a turnaround. A return to negative netflow — where withdrawals exceed deposits — would suggest renewed accumulation and could provide the catalyst for a faster price recovery.

  • XRP ‘Anti-Volatile’ Pattern Returns, Echoing Prior 240-Day Sideways Drift

    XRP ‘Anti-Volatile’ Pattern Returns, Echoing Prior 240-Day Sideways Drift

    XRP’s brief August rally has lost momentum, with the token’s price retreating to the $1.34–$1.37 range. Daily volatility has nearly evaporated, evidenced by Bollinger Bands tightening into a narrow horizontal line on the daily chart, according to TradingView data. Historically, this state of “anti-volatility” signals only one outcome for XRP: the market is hitting pause.

    Previous Cycles Point to Extended Sideways Action

    Historical patterns show that after such a lull, the asset typically enters a sluggish sideways drift lasting up to 240 days. The market’s current stillness is not without catalyst. Major participants and speculators are openly reluctant to establish positions ahead of a pivotal week that could reshape the macroeconomic landscape.

    Two Critical Events Loom Next Week

    First, the U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. The legislation stalled throughout the summer, prompting institutions to freeze activity, while inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds plunged by 93%.

    Second, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. U.S. inflation is accelerating again, with the Producer Price Index jumping to 5.4%, while Brent crude has surged above $107. Markets are pricing in a hawkish outcome with a 70% probability, driving major capital into cash positions.

    XRP/USD daily chart showing Bollinger Bands squeeze and declining volatility, Source: TradingView

    Holder Sentiment Provides Downside Support

    Despite macro pressure, XRP is being shielded from a deeper decline by a sharp shift in holder behavior. According to analytics platform CryptoQuant, the peak inflow of coins onto exchanges on September 9 was followed by a rapid outflow. In a single day, XRP reserves on Binance alone fell to 2.631 billion tokens.

    The price drop to a local low of $1.33 forced traders to stop selling and begin withdrawing assets from trading platforms while awaiting the upcoming catalysts.

    Two Historical Timeframes Frame the Consolidation

    Raw data from XRP’s previous accumulation periods reveals two clear scenarios:

    Short Cycle (79–89 Days)

    This duration matches how long the token accumulated strength during previous local cycles in 2025. If history repeats, the chart will not “wake up” until late November or early December 2026.

    Macro Cycle (Up to 240 Days)

    This aligns almost exactly with the previous exhausting sideways period before the August 31 breakout: nearly eight months, or 236 days. In the worst-case scenario, XRP will not emerge from its current consolidation until spring 2027.

    The timer for a potentially prolonged flat has already started. Its actual duration will be determined by the Senate vote and the Federal Reserve’s decision over the next few days.

  • Binance Bitcoin Reserves Hit 2-Year High — Is Selling Pressure Building?

    Binance Bitcoin Reserves Hit 2-Year High — Is Selling Pressure Building?

    Binance Bitcoin Holdings Surge to 693,000 BTC, Highest Level in Nearly Two Years

    Binance’s Bitcoin (BTC) reserves have climbed above 693,000 BTC, marking the highest level in almost two years. According to data from CryptoQuant, the exchange’s holdings have risen by approximately 77,000 BTC since the end of April.

    Why Are Investors Moving Bitcoin to Binance?

    The most straightforward explanation for this surge is that investors transferred Bitcoin to Binance during periods of strong price appreciation—primarily the May rally and the more recent August rally. When traders anticipate selling, they often move BTC from personal or cold wallets to exchanges to facilitate large trade execution.

    While a rising exchange balance can signal that potential selling supply is building up, it is not a definitive confirmation of an imminent sell-off.

    Three Key Drivers Behind the Inflow

    1. Deep Liquidity Attracts Large Orders

    Binance’s deep liquidity makes it the preferred platform for traders executing substantial BTC orders. Large trades can be filled with minimal market price impact, drawing significant volume to the exchange.

    2. SAFU Fund Deployment

    The Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU)—Binance’s emergency protection mechanism—intends to deploy $1 billion to secure roughly 15,000 BTC to help the Bitcoin community through the current transitional period.

    3. Rise in Scams and Hacks

    Total losses from scams and hacks have already crossed $1.732 billion in 2026. Following incidents such as the ColdCard exploit—where the attacker is still moving stolen Bitcoin—some holders have temporarily moved funds to established third-party platforms for safety.

    Is This an Early Warning Sign of a Sell-Off?

    The surge coincides with Bitcoin’s supply growth accelerating in 2026 at a faster pace than in several previous years. By around day 250, the 2026 supply growth line has reached roughly 6–7 million BTC. Compared with 2025 and earlier years at similar points, the 2026 pace appears relatively strong, suggesting more BTC is entering the market.

    Source: CryptoQuant

    However, this influx has also generated FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). If a large portion of the over 693,000 BTC held on Binance eventually moves into the market for sale, it could increase available supply and potentially create additional downward pressure on price.

    BNB Price Action: $725 Reclaim Critical for Recovery

    At press time, BNB was trading at $712.97 after a modest daily and weekly decline, but with a monthly gain of over 16%. AMBCrypto recently reported that BNB is testing the $700 support level.

    • Holding above $700 could stabilize the price.
    • A break below $700 could push BNB toward $680–$690.
    • For a recovery, BNB must first reclaim $725, followed by resistance around $750.

    Optimism remains, however, as BNB Chain gains momentum in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Tokenized-asset holders have risen 320% in 30 days, with the user base potentially reaching 800,000.

    Bitcoin Price Context

    Bitcoin’s price was down at $76,983.20 at press time. Yet unrealized profit remains elevated near $120K, indicating underlying bullish support in the market.

    Source: CryptoQuant

    Key Takeaways

    • Binance’s deep liquidity is the primary reason it became the first choice for Bitcoin holders.
    • Rising scams and hacks explain why some holders temporarily moved Bitcoin to established third-party platforms.
  • Altcoin Market Nears $1.07T Breakout as Warning Signs Emerge

    Altcoin Market Nears $1.07T Breakout as Warning Signs Emerge

    Altcoin Market Cap Reaches $1.77 Trillion, Barely Surpassing 2021 Peak

    On October 7, 2025, TOTAL2 — the market capitalization metric tracking altcoins including Ethereum (ETH) — hit an all-time high of $1.77 trillion. The new peak edged out the previous record of $1.71 trillion set on November 8, 2021, by a razor-thin margin.

    Altcoins Lag Bitcoin’s Recovery

    The minimal gain underscores a punishing bear market for long-term altcoin holders. While Bitcoin (BTC) shattered its 2021 all-time high by 58.8%, the collective altcoin market — long viewed by investors and traders as offering greater upside potential — has largely disappointed as an asset class.

    TOTAL2 Trapped in Multi-Year Range

    Source: TOTAL2 on TradingView

    Since 2022, TOTAL2 has consolidated within a long-term range. Its failure to decisively clear the prior peak confirms the range-bound structure. At the time of writing, the mid-range level at $1.07 trillion was being tested as resistance — a level that previously capped advances in May and could do so again.

    A sustained breakout above the mid-range would signal improving conditions for altcoins in the weeks ahead. However, on-chain metrics suggest such a move faces significant headwinds.

    Rising Exchange Inflows Signal Caution

    Source: CryptoQuant

    Crypto analyst Arab Chain highlighted a surge in addresses depositing altcoins to exchanges, reaching the highest level since May. Binance alone recorded 25,856 deposit addresses — the most among tracked platforms.

    This uptick indicates increased movement of altcoins onto trading venues, though it does not necessarily imply an imminent sell-off. The analyst noted the flows could also reflect heightened trader activity or liquidity provisioning.

    Declining Stablecoin Reserves Point to Weaker Buying Power

    Source: CryptoQuant

    Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) reserves across all exchanges have trended downward since December 2024. A brief period of stablecoin inflows during summer 2025 lasted only a few weeks before reversing.

    Falling stablecoin balances on exchanges typically signal reduced dry powder — the capital ready to deploy into crypto assets. Unlike the second half of 2025, the market currently lacks a strong directional bias according to this metric.

    Bullish Sentiment Tempered by Structural Warnings

    Despite growing confidence in broader crypto market sentiment, several warning signs warrant attention. Conditions remain constructive, but a clear, sustained bull run has yet to materialize.

    Key Levels to Watch

    • Altcoin market cap: $1.07 trillion (mid-range resistance)
    • Breakout catalyst: Rising demand and expanding purchasing power

    A meaningful altcoin advance depends on a reversal of current exchange inflow trends and a rebuilding of stablecoin reserves — signals that fresh capital is returning to the market with conviction.

  • Bitcoin Warning: Signal That Failed in Past Bull Runs Flares Up Again

    Bitcoin Warning: Signal That Failed in Past Bull Runs Flares Up Again

    Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Nears Critical 365-Day Average, CryptoQuant Signals Potential Regime Shift

    Cryptocurrency analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is approaching its 365-day moving average — a level that has historically marked major market regime changes. While the indicator is trending toward this threshold, the current reading does not yet confirm the start of a new bull market.

    Historical Significance of the 365-Day Moving Average Breakout

    According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a sustained break above the 365-day moving average on the MVRV Z-Score has previously signaled a transition from a recovery phase to an expansion phase. The firm highlights three prior instances:

    • The 2015–2016 breakout preceded the 2017 bull market.
    • The 2020 move came ahead of the 2020–2021 rally.
    • The 2023 recovery aligned with the final expansion period of that cycle.

    If Bitcoin clears and holds above this level, it could reflect a resurgence of unrealized profits across the network and the beginning of a new expansion regime. Conversely, a rejection would suggest overall market profitability remains insufficient to support a broader bull run.

    Current Cycle Shows Structurally Shallower Correction

    A key distinction in the current cycle is that the MVRV Z-Score did not fall below zero during the recent pullback — unlike at previous major cycle lows, where the indicator entered a low-valuation zone. CryptoQuant notes this could mean one of two things:

    • Bitcoin is experiencing a structurally shallower correction.
    • A capitulation event on the scale of prior macro lows may not yet be complete.

    Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score has formed lower peaks in each successive cycle. This trend suggests that even as Bitcoin’s price reaches higher highs, the market’s valuation excesses are becoming progressively more limited over time.

    Risk Assessment: Key Levels to Watch

    CryptoQuant outlines the following scenarios for market direction:

    • Bullish scenario: MVRV Z-Score reclaims and sustains above the 365-day moving average.
    • Repair regime: Rejection at the 365-day average indicates the market remains in a repair phase.
    • Correction not complete: A move back toward zero would reinforce the view that the current correction process is unfinished.

    This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.