Daily News 19

Category: Coins

Digital assets, cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and currency news.

  • Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $75K After $82K Rejection

    Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $75K After $82K Rejection

    Bitcoin Tests Critical Daily Support After $82,000 Rejection Amid Global Market Pressure

    Bitcoin is approaching a decisive technical juncture after failing to sustain its September advance above $82,000. The cryptocurrency has pulled back to approximately $76,900 as sellers regained control following the latest rejection at resistance.

    Daily Structure Faces Key Test at Change in State of Delivery

    The retreat has brought Bitcoin back toward a crucial area on the daily chart. The previous advance followed roughly 32 days of upward price delivery from the August low near $62,200, but momentum has now weakened significantly.

    Price is currently testing a daily Change in State of Delivery (CISD) near $77,150. A decisive move around this level could determine whether the recent rally remains intact or shifts into a deeper corrective phase. The CISD matters because it marks a potential change in the direction of daily price delivery. A decisive close below that level would confirm weakening short-term structure, a risk that has become more pronounced after Bitcoin briefly traded above $82,000 on September 3 before retreating.

    Key Technical Levels Define Near-Term Outlook

    The chart now places $81,468 as nearby resistance, while the broader trading range remains between $76,000 and $82,000. As a result, the $76,000 level has emerged as a key technical threshold. A firm break below it would strengthen the bearish outlook and increase the risk of a deeper decline.

    The current support area is particularly important. A confirmed loss of the $76,000-$77,000 region would place $75,000 as the first major downside test. Lower chart levels then become increasingly relevant. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement sits near $72,000, while the 0.62 retracement lies around $69,500-$70,000. The chart also highlights liquidity around the broader $69,000 area. These levels represent deeper retracements of the August-to-September rally rather than guaranteed destinations. Their importance would increase only after a confirmed daily structural breakdown.

    The current setup centers on whether the previous 32-day upward delivery remains intact. A sustained loss of support would mark a clear deterioration from that earlier structure.

    Global Macro Pressure Adds Weight to Technical Test

    The technical test is unfolding alongside broader pressure across global markets. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.2% Friday as Japanese government bond yields continued rising. The 10-year JGB yield climbed to 2.98%, while Brent crude briefly reached $109.97. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also touched 4.979%.

    Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% next week. Higher Japanese rates reduce the attractiveness of yen-funded carry trades. Reuters has previously linked yen strength with concerns about carry-trade unwinding and tighter liquidity conditions. Those developments add pressure to risk assets while Bitcoin remains close to technical support.

    Bullish Scenario Requires Reclaim of Key Levels

    However, the downside scenario still requires confirmation. Holding the $76,000-$77,000 region would preserve the possibility of another consolidation or accumulation phase. A recovery above $80,000 would provide the first sign that buyers are regaining control.

    In such a scenario, the next resistance levels would remain at $81,468 and the broader $82,000 zone. A sustained break above $82,000 would restore the upward structure that weakened after the September rejection. The chart does not directly confirm $100,000 as an immediate target, though that level remains a longer-term psychological objective if upward momentum returns.

    For now, daily closes around $76,000-$77,000 remain the key signal. They will determine whether the rejection develops below $75,000 or stabilizes before another recovery attempt.

  • Bitcoin Price Surges Despite Hot US Inflation Data

    Bitcoin Price Surges Despite Hot US Inflation Data

    Bitcoin Price Spikes, Shrugs Off Hot US Inflation Data

    Bitcoin’s price rose on Friday despite data revealing that U.S. inflation had accelerated, defying typical market expectations that higher inflation would pressure risk assets.

    Bitcoin Trades Near $79,000 Amid Inflation Surprise

    The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently trading close to $78,749 after jumping 2% over a 24-hour period. At one point on Friday morning in New York, bitcoin rose as high as $79,607.

    The price spike came after the release of August consumer price index data showing U.S. consumer prices accelerated, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

    Core Inflation Exceeds Forecasts

    The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier, which was higher than expected. Inflation in the U.S. has been difficult to tame due to the war with Iran, which has lifted oil prices, in turn raising the costs of food, gasoline, and other goods.

    Higher inflation typically means the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which in turn could stop bitcoin’s price climbing higher. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders think there is an 85% chance interest rates will be higher by next week.

    Fed Policy Outlook and Bitcoin’s Rate Sensitivity

    Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment because it means people can buy more of the cryptocurrency with increased liquidity. The Federal Reserve will meet next week and reveal what it will do with borrowing costs.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who took the helm in January, last month gave his first speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had more work to do to fight inflation.

    Political Context: Affordability Crisis and Midterm Elections

    The U.S. is currently in the grips of an affordability crisis and rising oil prices are a hot topic ahead of the midterm elections. U.S. President Donald Trump has reassured voters that prices will get under control and repeatedly put pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.

    Recent Catalysts: Regulatory Clarity and Treasury Policy

    Bitcoin in August had its biggest run in years following positive regulatory news and an announcement from the U.S. Treasury. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, helping non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold. The cryptocurrency then benefited from President Trump urging lawmakers to get key crypto legislation, the Clarity Act, over the line.

    This post first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.

  • Treasury Buys $5.2 Billion in Bonds as Bitcoin ETF Flows Remain Negative

    Treasury Buys $5.2 Billion in Bonds as Bitcoin ETF Flows Remain Negative

    Treasury Buyback Targets Off-the-Run Liquidity as Yields Climb

    The U.S. Treasury purchased $5.187 billion of long-dated government bonds on Sept. 10, marking the first operation under its expanded buyback program. The move came as Bitcoin investors monitored markets for signs of improving liquidity, but initial cross-market signals pointed in the opposite direction.

    Treasury’s daily nominal yield curve showed the 10-year yield rising 12 basis points from 4.83% to 4.95%. The real yield curve, which adjusts for expected inflation, saw the 10-year real yield climb 9 basis points from 2.46% to 2.55%. Higher real yields increase the return hurdle for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Simultaneously, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another net outflow of roughly $282 million, underscoring that regulated-fund demand and broader financing costs remained unfavorable.

    Operation Details and Market Mechanics

    The buyback targeted off-the-run securities—older Treasury issues that trade less actively than the newest benchmark bonds. Treasury’s official results showed $10.489 billion of securities offered against a $6 billion maximum, with 23 of 40 eligible issues accepted. Maturities ranged from February 2037 through August 2046.

    The $6 billion figure was a ceiling. Treasury describes itself as a price-sensitive buyer in its buyback guidance, allowing it to accept less than the maximum when offers do not meet its criteria. Accepted securities are retired after settlement, managing the composition of Treasury’s own debt rather than conducting a Federal Reserve monetary-policy purchase.

    Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explains that off-the-run bonds trade less frequently, rely more on dealer intermediation, and can benefit from a predictable buyer. The study also characterizes the program as modest relative to overall Treasury market volumes and dealer holdings. The accepted amount demonstrates the operation found more than $5 billion of eligible offers at acceptable prices, though it does not establish whether bid-ask spreads, dealer capacity, or economy-wide financing costs improved—those outcomes require separate market evidence.

    Bitcoin ETF Outflows Persist

    U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $282.7 million on Sept. 10, according to Farside Investors. ETF flows signal demand through regulated funds rather than proving one-for-one selling in the spot market. Even with that caveat, the latest outflow offered no evidence that easier conditions were reaching Bitcoin funds.

    CryptoSlate’s Bitcoin market page recorded a Sept. 10 reference close of $76,568 before recovering to around $77,800 at press time. That rebound left the asset near the $76,000 support cluster identified in recent market coverage, while real yields and ETF flows still pointed to pressure.

    Concurrent Macro Forces Complicate Causal Reading

    The buyback shared the session with several macro forces that influence bond yields and risk appetite, preventing a clean causal reading of the Treasury operation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported final-demand producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% year-over-year. Goods prices increased 1.1%, led partly by a 4.2% rise in energy. Persistent pipeline inflation can keep market rates elevated as investors demand more compensation for inflation risk and anticipate tighter monetary policy.

    The European Central Bank added another tightening signal by raising its three key rates 25 basis points on Sept. 10. It also noted its asset-purchase and pandemic-program portfolios continued to decline as maturing principal was no longer reinvested.

    August U.S. consumer inflation data is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Sept. 11, according to the BLS release calendar. That release is the next immediate test: inflation data consistent with cooling price pressure could pull nominal and real yields lower, while an upside surprise could extend the higher-yield backdrop.

    Transmission Signals Needed for Convincing Case

    CryptoSlate’s analysis identified accepted purchases and subsequent funding conditions—rather than the headline ceiling—as the meaningful test. The completed purchase supplies the first half of that test; the second half must come from markets.

    A convincing transmission signal would combine lower real yields with evidence that easier cash conditions persist beyond settlement. Renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows across more than one session would add demand-side confirmation. Bitcoin holding above the recent support cluster while those macro and flow measures improve would strengthen the case further.

    Conversely, a continued squeeze would produce the reverse pattern: elevated real yields, repeated ETF outflows, and Bitcoin losing support while Treasury continues buying selected off-the-run bonds. Each indicator can move for its own reasons, so the case depends on alignment rather than any single print.

    Treasury’s purchase may improve liquidity in a specific corner of the government-bond market. The first post-operation readings showed that benefit had yet to appear in the financial conditions most relevant to Bitcoin.

    Related Reading

    Bitcoin traders bet borrowed money on a rally as oil surges ahead of Friday’s inflation test

  • Riot Games Holds Sponsorship Talks With Polymarket, Kalshi

    Riot Games Holds Sponsorship Talks With Polymarket, Kalshi

    Riot Games Explores Prediction Market Sponsorships Ahead of League of Legends World Championship

    Riot Games has entered discussions with prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket regarding potential esports sponsorship agreements, according to a Bloomberg report published on September 11. The talks come weeks before the League of Legends World Championship kicks off in October.

    Riot Evaluates Emerging Prediction Market Space

    The Tencent-owned developer, which operates competitive tournaments for League of Legends and Valorant, has not committed to either platform. Sources familiar with the private discussions told Bloomberg that any agreement would involve Riot’s esports business.

    “Prediction markets are an emerging space that we’re evaluating with a focus on safeguarding competitive integrity, potential value for teams, impact on the fan experience, and alignment with our broader ecosystem goals,” Riot Games spokesperson Joe Hixson told Bloomberg.

    Kalshi declined to comment on the discussions, while Polymarket did not respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment.

    Official Esports Data Requirement Through GRID

    Any prediction market sponsor approved by Riot would be required to obtain official betting data through GRID Esports, one person familiar with the discussions told Bloomberg. GRID already maintains ties to Polymarket, having partnered with the prediction market operator in June. That agreement granted Polymarket access to official esports data and included plans for faster streams, a redesigned esports section, and data taken directly from game servers.

    The requirement would place official game data within any sponsorship arrangement as Riot considers bringing prediction markets closer to its competitive ecosystem.

    Massive Esports Betting Market Drives Interest

    League of Legends and Valorant tournaments draw millions of viewers globally, with esports audiences skewing younger than those of traditional sports. Riot has previously cited Sportradar data showing betting tied to its two major titles reached $10.7 billion in 2024. Most of that activity took place through unregulated markets and unlicensed bookmakers, according to Riot.

    The company began permitting sponsorships from traditional sports betting operators in 2025, subject to restrictions intended to protect competitive integrity. Prediction markets already offer contracts on esports matches, allowing traders to take positions on game outcomes without a formal sponsorship relationship with Riot.

    Kalshi has been recruiting for an esports-focused position tasked with forming league partnerships and increasing its presence in the sector. Polymarket had employees working on esports by at least 2025, according to LinkedIn information cited by Bloomberg.

    Prediction Markets Expand Across Professional Sports

    The Riot discussions would extend a series of deals bringing prediction markets into professional sports and entertainment. At the end of August, Kalshi secured an exclusive U.S. Open partnership with the U.S. Tennis Association. The agreement gave the company prediction market partner status and restricted competing platforms from advertising at the tournament venue and across its television coverage.

    Kalshi had already gained FIFA World Cup exposure through an agreement with ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official prediction market partner for the 2026 tournament. The World Cup partnership placed Kalshi branding alongside ADI Predictstreet across stadium, television and digital coverage during the competition.

    Polymarket has pursued a similar strategy, signing agreements spanning Major League Baseball, the Bundesliga and other sports properties. Its Bundesliga agreement made Polymarket the league’s exclusive U.S. prediction market partner and included the use of market data during pay-per-view programming.

    NBA star LeBron James became one of the latest prominent athletes connected with the company when he confirmed a Polymarket partnership through a video posted on X on September 5. The initial campaign is expected to focus on American football, according to CNBC.

    Record Trading Volumes Fuel Competition

    Prediction market operators have been competing for sports users as trading activity across the sector has climbed. Combined monthly volume across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US reached a record $50.59 billion in July, with Kalshi accounting for $37.7 billion.

    Integrity Concerns Shape Riot’s Evaluation

    Riot’s consideration of prediction market sponsors comes as sports organizations take different positions on partnerships with the sector. The National Football League has held back from signing prediction market sponsorships, citing concerns over inadequate regulation and ongoing legal challenges, Bloomberg reported earlier this month.

    Riot has its own concerns because betting activity can create integrity risks around professional matches. Its evaluation of prediction markets is therefore considering competitive integrity alongside the possible financial benefits for esports teams and effects on fans, according to Hixson.

    Sponsorship income remains an important source of revenue for esports organizations. NewZoo estimates that sponsorships can account for as much as 60% of an organization’s revenue, while the industry has historically struggled to generate sufficient income from merchandise and ticket sales.

    Prediction market companies have spent heavily to place their brands around major sporting events while developing systems intended to detect prohibited trading. Kalshi uses its proprietary Poirot detection system and has worked with Solidus Labs, IC360 and the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab on surveillance and integrity controls. Polymarket has developed Vergence AI, an integrity monitoring system created with support from Palantir and TWG AI.

    Regulatory Battles Continue Across States

    Sports contracts remain one of the main sources of regulatory pressure on Kalshi and Polymarket in the United States. State gaming regulators and attorneys general have argued that contracts tied to game winners, player statistics and other sporting outcomes amount to sports betting and should fall under state gambling laws. Prediction market operators have countered that their event contracts are derivatives subject to federal oversight.

    The dispute has produced different outcomes across U.S. courts. A Washington state judge in July granted a preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi from offering sports prediction markets to residents after finding the state was likely to succeed in arguing that the products violated local gambling laws. Kalshi has faced similar challenges in New York and Michigan, while lawsuits involving prediction market regulation have spread across numerous states.

    Baltimore sued both Kalshi and Polymarket in August, accusing the companies of offering unlicensed sports betting. The city’s case against Kalshi named Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull over their role in distributing sports event contracts.

    Despite the legal disputes, sports have become a major source of activity for prediction markets. During the 2026 FIFA World Cup, monthly sports prediction volume reached $9.5 billion on Kalshi and $5.3 billion on Polymarket, according to Defirate data reported in June.

    Riot’s discussions are taking place weeks before the League of Legends World Championship begins in October. No sponsorship agreement with either Kalshi or Polymarket has been announced.

  • Bitcoin Trades Now Face Liquidation Risk After a Stock Crash

    Bitcoin Trades Now Face Liquidation Risk After a Stock Crash

    RWA Perpetual Futures Volume Surges to $799.5 Billion

    Monthly volume on real-world-asset (RWA) perpetual futures climbed from $85 billion in January to a record $799.5 billion in August, with equities representing 62.3% of that total across both decentralized and centralized venues, according to CoinMarketCap data.

    Unified Portfolio Margin Reshapes DeFi Trading

    Trading venues are shifting away from single-asset margin models toward unified portfolio accounts. In this structure, a trader’s entire holdings collateralize every position simultaneously, moving well beyond the traditional single stablecoin deposit.

    DeFi trading originally required depositing USDC as margin for crypto perpetuals. Hyperliquid’s portfolio margin now allows spot balances and perpetual positions to offset each other directly, with assets like HYPE and BTC eligible as non-stablecoin collateral. Backpack expanded this pool on September 3 by adding equity holdings, enabling shares in SPCX to support perpetual trades, dollar borrowing, and spot-margin positions within one unified account. Synthetix built a dedicated liquidity vault this year to handle ETH-denominated collateral, market-making, and liquidations in concert.

    Katana CEO Matthew Fisher said that unified margin adds leverage to the system. He argued that it also lets sophisticated trading firms net risk across an entire book, turning the same tool into something that can support genuine hedging alongside larger directional bets.

    Collateral Risk: A Second Liquidation Trigger

    A stablecoin-margined Bitcoin long carries only BTC’s price as the risk variable. Fisher’s point is that collateral built from anything else introduces a second, independent trigger.

    If Bitcoin falls, the position loses money as expected. If the collateral backing that position falls instead, the margin ratio deteriorates on its own, even with Bitcoin unchanged. Fisher described a trader who can end up liquidated while the underlying derivative is still profitable, purely because the asset propping it up has dropped far enough.

    Fisher frames adding yield-bearing collateral as reconciling two separate clocks. Yield accrues on a smooth, near-continuous schedule, while the asset’s price still moves tick by tick, and the margin engine has to stay accurate about both at the moment a liquidation might trigger.

    Liquidation Challenges: Pricing vs. Selling

    Every crypto venue can already tell a trader what their tokenized gold, staked ETH, or equity position is worth at any given moment, but Fisher noted that knowing the price solves only half the problem.

    He said:

    “The challenge is basically liquidating the new collateral safely.”

    Even an asset as liquid as Bitcoin or gold needs a route into a stable settlement asset that works quickly and without meaningful slippage once a forced sale begins. That distinction between knowing what something is worth and being able to sell enough of it fast enough is where Hyperliquid’s design becomes evident. Its documentation routes portfolio-margin liquidations through a dedicated backstop liquidator, a different track from the ordinary market process used for perpetuals.

    Seized collateral converts through a time-weighted average price with a 10-minute half-life, because spot order books have less consistent liquidity than perpetual markets. Synthetix built its liquidity vault around the identical problem, assigning it the combined role of market maker, liquidator, and collateral converter for every non-stablecoin asset it accepts.

    Real-World Test: SK Hynix Incident Exposes Weakness

    Galaxy’s research on an August incident described a Seoul pre-market print for SK Hynix that came in 29.96% below the prior close and fed directly into a tokenized perpetual contract margined in USDC on Hyperliquid. That triggered roughly $60 million of leveraged long liquidations across nearly a thousand accounts. Galaxy concludes that correct price discovery is not the same as sound liquidation design.

    Fisher expects DeFi to eventually rediscover the same collateral hierarchy traditional finance built over decades: cash first, then government debt, high-quality credit, other debt, equities, and only then more volatile or illiquid assets. Wrapping something in an ERC-20 standard makes it transferable, though it says nothing about how that asset behaves under real selling stress. What determines an asset’s place on that ladder remains the same two things traditional finance has always weighed: volatility and how easily it can be sold once a sale becomes mandatory.

    TradFi’s Collateral Hierarchy vs. DeFi Innovation

    Fisher’s read on the competitive landscape runs counter to the usual crypto assumption that DeFi always innovates first and traditional finance follows years later. Banks and prime brokers have accepted securities, gold, and money-market fund shares as collateral for decades, complete with established haircut methodologies and stress-testing frameworks. Tokenization functions as an infrastructure upgrade to a practice institutions already run, well short of a new discipline they need to learn from scratch.

    Recent moves support that reading. Nasdaq has agreed to invest $100 million in Kraken parent Payward to help build infrastructure for tokenized assets trading outside conventional market hours, and US market plumbing is separately extending toward round-the-clock clearing and settlement.

    The Collateral Arms Race: Bull and Bear Cases

    The bull case sees RWA perpetual volume continuing to grow, tokenized Treasuries and equities building genuinely deep order books, and backstop liquidation vaults proving they can convert seized collateral profitably through real stress events. Under that path, decentralized exchanges come to resemble on-chain prime brokers, offering spot holdings, perpetuals, lending, and collateral management inside one account. Bitcoin benefits directly, since traders can hold it spot while shorting perpetuals or borrowing against it without ever selling.

    The bear case envisions a crowded trade that reverses sharply with collateral assets gapping down together. Spot order books prove unable to absorb seized positions anywhere near their oracle-marked value, echoing what happened during the SK Hynix incident at far larger scale.

    That risk sits more concentrated than headline volume implies. DEX share of RWA perpetual trading fell from roughly 45% in December to just 13% by August. Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets carry most of the remaining DeFi share, with a single deployer behind nearly all of that volume. In that scenario, venues cut loan-to-value ratios, shrink collateral caps, and retreat toward stablecoin-first margin. Bitcoin ends up absorbing much of the shock anyway, since forced liquidations in less liquid collateral often settle through crypto’s deepest, most liquid derivatives market, regardless of where the stress began.

    The harder question for DeFi now is whether it can sell a tokenized asset fast enough, at scale, the one moment it has to.

  • Whale 7GP6Bz Buys 11,487 SOL, Sparking Interest in Solana

    Whale 7GP6Bz Buys 11,487 SOL, Sparking Interest in Solana

    Solana Whale Accumulates 11,487 SOL Worth $1.14 Million, Signaling Bullish Sentiment

    A major Solana whale identified as 7GP6Bz has purchased 11,487 SOL tokens valued at approximately $1.14 million, according to on-chain data highlighted by crypto analyst @lookonchain. The transaction has drawn immediate market attention, underscoring growing confidence in Solana’s ecosystem despite mixed broader crypto market signals.

    Whale Activity Points to Institutional-Grade Conviction

    The acquisition occurred against a backdrop of divergent market trends, where certain assets face selling pressure while others—like Solana—attract significant whale interest. Large-scale purchases by deep-pocketed entities often precede notable price movements, as they reduce circulating supply and signal long-term holding intent.

    Solana’s high-performance blockchain, designed for decentralized applications and scalable crypto projects, continues to position itself as a foundational layer for Web3 development. This latest accumulation reinforces the narrative that sophisticated investors are betting on Solana’s technical roadmap and ecosystem expansion.

    Key Metrics at a Glance

    • Buyer: Whale address 7GP6Bz
    • Asset Acquired: 11,487 SOL
    • Total Value: ~$1.14 million
    • Source: @lookonchain on-chain monitoring

    Market Implications and Levels to Watch

    Traders and analysts are now monitoring Solana’s price action closely for follow-through momentum. Whale-driven demand can catalyze short-term rallies, especially if retail participation increases in response. Key technical levels and on-chain metrics—such as exchange inflows, staking rates, and active addresses—will provide further clues on whether this accumulation marks a local bottom or the start of a sustained uptrend.

    As with all on-chain signals, context matters. While whale buying is a bullish indicator, broader macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and Bitcoin’s price trajectory will continue to influence Solana’s near-term direction.

  • Why Crypto Market Is Falling Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Under Pressure

    Why Crypto Market Is Falling Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Under Pressure

    Crypto Market Correction Deepens as Bitcoin Slides Below $78K Amid Macroeconomic Pressure

    The cryptocurrency market is facing renewed selling pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) failing to sustain its recent recovery and sliding toward the $77,000 level. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has dropped from approximately $78,500 to around $77,225, dragging the broader market down with it. Total crypto market capitalization has fallen 1.55% to $2.62 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume has risen 3.1% to roughly $84.3 billion, indicating heightened activity amid the decline.

    Broad-Based Weakness Across Major Altcoins

    The sell-off is not confined to Bitcoin. Major altcoins are posting significant losses, signaling a market-wide risk-off move rather than an isolated correction:

    • Ethereum (ETH) remains capped below $2,500 but is showing relative strength against Bitcoin, holding above $2,450.
    • XRP has plunged over 3% to $1.34.
    • BNB trades around $714.
    • Solana (SOL) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) have both dropped below key support levels at $100 and $80, respectively.

    Stablecoins continue to dominate market activity, with their combined 24-hour volume exceeding $90 billion, underscoring the ongoing rotation of capital through stablecoin pairs.

    Top Gainers and Losers Highlight Divergence

    Amid the broad decline, a few assets are bucking the trend. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap:

    • Raydium (RAY) leads gainers with a 27.23% jump.
    • ether.fi (ETHFI) follows with a 9.60% gain.
    • Aptos (APT) and Polkadot (DOT) are up 3.64% and 2.10%, respectively.

    On the downside, Zcash (ZEC) has plunged 13.23% but continues to hold above the $1,000 support level.

    Key Drivers Behind Today’s Crypto Market Sell-Off

    The correction is being driven by a convergence of macroeconomic headwinds that are pushing investors toward a defensive posture across global financial markets.

    Middle East Tensions Push Oil Prices Above $100

    Escalating geopolitical tensions around critical Middle East shipping routes have sent Brent crude soaring to $109.97 per barrel. The benchmark is on track for an approximate 11% weekly gain, raising fears of sustained energy-supply disruptions that could reignite inflation.

    FED Rate-Hike Expectations Surge

    Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain tighter monetary policy to combat renewed inflationary pressures. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting has risen to ~71%, up from 61% in prior sessions.

    Inflation Concerns Return to the Forefront

    The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) showed producer prices rising 0.4% month-over-month in August and 5.4% year-over-year. A hotter-than-expected reading reinforces the case for prolonged restrictive policy, adding another layer of pressure on risk assets like crypto.

    Treasury Yields Approach Critical 5% Threshold

    U.S. Treasury yields have surged as investors reassess the inflation and rate outlook. The 10-year yield hit 4.979%, flirting with the psychologically important 5% level, while the 30-year yield climbed to ~5.38%.

    Stronger Dollar Tightens Global Liquidity

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near 99, supported by rising yields and safe-haven demand. A stronger dollar typically tightens global financial conditions and weighs on dollar-denominated risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    Bitcoin ETF Outflows Accelerate

    Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $120.2 million in net outflows in the latest session, following a $46.6 million outflow the prior day. That brings total withdrawals over two consecutive sessions to roughly $166.8 million, signaling weakening institutional buying pressure.

    Leveraged Liquidations Amplify Downside Volatility

    High leverage is exacerbating the sell-off. Recent data shows over $386 million in leveraged positions liquidated, including approximately $270 million in long positions, fueling a cascading effect as stop-losses trigger further selling.

    What’s Next for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market?

    The near-term trajectory for crypto will likely hinge on three key macro variables: oil prices, U.S. inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. If these pressures ease, Bitcoin and altcoins could find a footing to stabilize and recover. However, a further spike in energy costs, hotter inflation prints, or sustained ETF outflows could extend the current correction deeper into key support zones.

  • Bitcoin Flashes Unprecedented 17-Year On-Chain Anomaly

    Bitcoin Flashes Unprecedented 17-Year On-Chain Anomaly

    Bitcoin On-Chain Analyst Flags Unprecedented HODL Wave Anomaly Suggesting Single Whale Accumulation

    Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo has identified an unusual signal in Bitcoin’s HODL Wave data that appears to have no precedent across nearly two decades of available history. The anomaly centers on how Bitcoin was accumulated around the recent market bottom, with Woo suggesting the buying pattern points to a single large entity rather than broad retail participation.

    Analyst Highlights “Anomaly” in 17.5 Years of HODL Wave Data

    In a post on X, Woo emphasized the rarity of the current data pattern:

    We have an ANOMALY.Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale.When it’s many investors, you expect to see spikes in buying activity. That’s happened every time across 17.5 years of Hodl Wave data except now. pic.twitter.com/1cU23USB3R

    According to Woo, the absence of typical accumulation spikes is the key deviation. “Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale,” he stated. The analyst explained that widespread investor participation historically produces clear spikes in Bitcoin’s youngest HODL Wave bands. “When it’s many investors, you expect to see spikes in buying activity. That’s happened every time across 17.5 years of Hodl Wave data except now,” Woo elaborated.

    How HODL Waves Reveal Accumulation Patterns

    HODL Waves segment Bitcoin’s circulating supply based on the duration coins have remained unmoved. The youngest bands are especially sensitive to recent buying activity because newly acquired coins appear there first before migrating to older age bands if held long-term. If those coins are spent again, they cycle back to the youngest bands.

    Normally, a market bottom accompanied by broad participation generates conspicuous bursts in these short-term waves. The current absence of such spikes suggests accumulation may have been driven by a very large investor or a small number of entities operating quietly.

    Single-Whale Theory Remains an Interpretation, Not a Conclusion

    Woo has acknowledged that the single-whale explanation is only one interpretation. Other factors could account for the anomaly, including:

    • Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows
    • Institutional custody arrangements
    • Derivatives market activity
    • Structural changes in Bitcoin’s market since HODL Wave data first became available

    Bitcoin Price Action Remains Fragile Amid Macro Headwinds

    The on-chain signal arrives as Bitcoin navigates shaky price action. As reported by U.Today, the leading cryptocurrency recently slipped below the psychologically important $77,000 level on Thursday. While Bitcoin has since bounced from those lows, market fragility persists due to the high probability of an incoming rate hike.

    Adding to near-term uncertainty, a major derivatives expiry is scheduled for Friday. According to Coinbase Markets, approximately $2.51 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, with BTC accounting for the overwhelming majority of the total notional value.

  • UniCredit Weighs Tokenized Products and Crypto Services for Clients, Report Says

    UniCredit Weighs Tokenized Products and Crypto Services for Clients, Report Says

    UniCredit is exploring new digital-asset services, including custody and brokerage, as the Italian lender evaluates building infrastructure to support the sector, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

    Technology Provider Selection Underway

    The bank is currently selecting a technology provider that would enable it to hold digital assets and facilitate transactions, according to the sources. Potential services remain under discussion, and no final decision has been made.

    Scope of Digital-Asset Offerings

    UniCredit is considering a range of services, including tokenized investment products and fixed-income securities, stablecoin applications for clients, and cryptocurrency exposure. The plans reflect a broader push by European banks into digital assets as the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation provides greater clarity for financial institutions.

    Existing Digital-Asset Initiatives

    UniCredit has so far targeted professional investors and corporations. Earlier this year, the bank offered a structured product tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Late last year, it issued Italy’s first tokenized minibond on a public blockchain. Tokenization refers to issuing and transferring traditional assets using blockchain networks.

    Strategic Partnerships and Investments

    The bank also joined other European lenders in creating Qivalis to develop a euro-denominated stablecoin. This week, UniCredit announced it acquired a minority stake in VC Trade, a German lending markets platform, to expand its digital capital markets capabilities.

  • Coinbase CEO: “$400,000 Is a Reasonable Target for Bitcoin”

    Coinbase CEO: “$400,000 Is a Reasonable Target for Bitcoin”

    Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Projects $400,000 Bitcoin by 2030

    Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has reiterated his long‑term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, stating that a price of $400,000 by 2030 is a “reasonable target.” In a recent interview, Armstrong outlined the key drivers behind his prediction, citing market cycles, evolving U.S. regulation, and growing institutional capital inflows.

    Bitcoin’s Four‑Year Market Cycle Nearing a Turning Point

    Armstrong emphasized that Bitcoin continues to follow an approximate four‑year cycle characterized by a strong rally, a period of euphoria, and a subsequent correction. He noted that the current downturn may be approaching its end.

    “Typically, there’s a rise, then a period of euphoria, and then a decline. Most declines last about a year, and we’ve already passed the one‑year threshold in the current decline.”

    Pointing to Bitcoin’s rebound from support around $60,000, Armstrong expressed confidence that the cycle bottom is behind us.

    “Personally, I believe that the bottom of this latest cycle in Bitcoin is behind us. We’ve already seen it start rising from around $60,000.”

    Regulatory Clarity and the CLARITY Act

    Regulatory developments in the United States play a significant role in Armstrong’s $400,000 forecast. He highlighted the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to establish a clearer legal framework for cryptocurrencies. While passage of the act would be a major milestone, Armstrong argued that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory does not depend solely on its success; subsequent regulatory rules could also shape the market’s direction.

    Armstrong described the legislation as a “regulatory checkbox” that would remove substantial uncertainty for banks and asset managers, potentially unlocking a wave of institutional investment.

    “This would be a huge milestone. It could pave the way for institutional capital and bring products like tokenized shares to the US. That would be very positive for the industry.”

    Macro Tailwinds: Bond Market Pressure and Alternative Assets

    Beyond crypto‑specific factors, Armstrong pointed to stress in global bond markets as a catalyst for demand for alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin. If these macroeconomic pressures combine with regulatory progress and the natural market cycle, he believes Bitcoin could enter another strong bull phase in the coming years, ultimately reaching the $400,000 level by 2030.

    *This is not investment advice.