Daily News 19

Tag: Technical analysis

  • XRP Faces Key Test as Historical Pattern Points to Possible Pullback

    XRP Faces Key Test as Historical Pattern Points to Possible Pullback

    XRP Weekly Super Trend Flips Bullish, But Analyst Warns of Historical Pattern

    XRP’s weekly Super Trend indicator turned bullish on August 17 after the token rallied roughly 70% from $0.98 to $1.70. However, analyst ChartNerd cautions that this exact signal has marked local tops before deep pullbacks in every previous cycle dating back to 2019, and XRP is currently stalling at the resistance level that decided those earlier setups.

    Bullish Signal Meets Key Resistance Zone

    ChartNerd’s analysis focuses on the price action following XRP’s recovery from the $0.98 area. The token advanced about 70% toward $1.70, where it encountered the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $1.52. Simultaneously, XRP has been trading between that resistance and the 20-week EMA around $1.29 to $1.30.

    “Whilst beneath the 50 and above the 20, we’re simply compressing,”

    ChartNerd said, describing the recent price action as a period of chop while traders wait for a clearer direction.

    That caution stems from XRP’s earlier cycle history. In 2022, the token rallied about 90% from its cycle low before a bullish Super Trend flip appeared around the 50-week EMA, a move followed by a 45% correction. In 2019, another bullish flip during the bear market preceded a 56% correction, and after the 2020 cycle low, XRP also printed a bullish flip before falling 32%.

    ChartNerd argues this pattern has appeared often enough to warrant caution.

    “Bullish super trends usually mark local tops,”

    the analyst said, while stressing that historical behavior does not guarantee the same outcome this time.

    He also placed a greater structural change around $1.90, noting that XRP would need to clear the $1.50 to $1.90 zone before the move toward its previous high looks more convincing. A short-term push above $1.52 is still possible, the analyst said, but even a close above the 50-week EMA would not automatically remove the historical warning.

    Price Action Remains Choppy This Week

    As CryptoPotato reported earlier, XRP dipped toward $1.39 during one leg of Bitcoin’s recent slide before buyers stepped back in to push it to $1.44. At the time of writing, the token had fallen close to 4% in the last 24 hours and was again trading near $1.38, according to CoinGecko data. It is up 1.5% over the past week but down more than 53% from a year ago, and remains about 62% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 2025.

    Bitcoin has been chopping between $77,600 and $80,000 over the past few days, and XRP’s swings have largely tracked that back-and-forth rather than moving on independent catalysts.

    Futures Volume Surges, ETF Inflows Slow

    The Ripple token’s futures volume picked up in August, with trading across the three biggest exchanges topping $64 billion, the busiest month in half a year. Spot XRP ETFs continued adding money, although the pace slowed significantly, with weekly inflows dropping to just under $19 million last week after bringing in more than $110 million the week before. So far this week, SoSoValue data shows net inflows have hit about $13.83 million.

  • Bitcoin Holds $78,000 as Altcoin Market Falters

    Bitcoin Holds $78,000 as Altcoin Market Falters

    Bitcoin Holds $78K as Crypto Market Cap Dips to $2.76 Trillion

    Bitcoin traded at $78,378 on Tuesday, gaining roughly 1% over the past 24 hours and the past week, even as the broader cryptocurrency market slipped. Total crypto market capitalization fell nearly 1% to $2.76 trillion, with Bitcoin outperforming most altcoins. BTC’s own market cap hovered near $1.57 trillion, supported by daily trading volume between $29 billion and $35 billion across major exchanges.

    Range-Bound Trading Persists Below $83,000

    Bitcoin has remained stuck in a tight range below $83,000 for close to two weeks, a consolidation pattern that mirrors a similar quiet stretch in July and August. That earlier range eventually resolved into a bullish breakout. Currently, price is holding above a short-term floor near $77,000, with a recent low of $76,230 marking the next line of defense if the range breaks down.

    Some technical analysts argue that a clean daily close above $83,000 could open the door to a larger structural move, with a measured target projecting toward $160,000. That figure is framed as a pattern-based projection rather than a direct price forecast.

    Key Support Levels in Focus

    The broader uptrend dating from the July low remains intact as long as Bitcoin defends the $70,500 to $75,180 zone. A break below $70,500 would signal the first real crack in market structure, since that level represents the 50% retracement of the recent rally.

    Cycle-based timing models suggest a weaker stretch ahead, with a possible low forming in October, a period of calm into November, and a deeper dip near year-end before conditions improve heading into 2026.

    Sentiment Remains in Greed Territory

    Despite sideways price action, market sentiment has not cooled. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 69, firmly in “Greed” territory, indicating traders have not lost confidence even as price refuses to commit to a direction.

    What Analysts Are Watching Next

    • Break above $83,000: Would signal the range is finally resolving to the upside.
    • Drop below $76,230, then $70,500: Would point to a deeper pullback and potential trend change.
    • Historical rhyme: Whether this range snaps the way July–August’s did, with a fast move once the breakout occurs.

    For now, Bitcoin remains in a holding pattern. The levels are clear, the next move is not, and both short-term charts and longer-term timing signals agree on one thing: the market is building toward a decision, even if the direction remains unknown.

  • Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Predictions Today: Why Crypto Is Falling

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Predictions Today: Why Crypto Is Falling

    Crypto Market Pulls Back: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Technical Analysis Amid Treasury Buybacks

    The global cryptocurrency market capitalization declined to $2.75 trillion, marking a 1.2% drop over the past 24 hours, with trading volume reaching $95.24 billion. Major assets retreated across the board: Bitcoin slipped to $78,218.90, Ethereum eased to $2,470.18, and XRP fell to $1.39.

    Bitcoin: Cooling Off, Not Breaking Down

    Bitcoin remains trapped in a resistance zone between $80,000 and $82,000, while support holds firm between $73,000 and $75,000. Chart analysts indicate the pullback follows an overbought signal on the 3-day RSI, combined with a confirmed bearish divergence that emerged roughly a week ago after Bitcoin’s recent short squeeze. Together, these signals point to further consolidation or a mild pullback rather than a sharp reversal.

    Liquidation data highlights the more immediate level to watch between $77,200 and $77,400, with additional liquidity below that near $76,100. A dip toward the $76,000–$77,000 range remains a plausible near-term scenario, even as the broader multi-year trend stays intact.

    Ethereum: Still Structurally Bullish Despite the Dip

    In the near term, Ethereum faces resistance around $2,520 to $2,530, a level that has rejected price multiple times in recent weeks. The analyst noted that repeated tests of resistance without a sharp rejection tend to weaken that resistance over time, increasing the odds of an eventual breakout. However, a potential bearish divergence remains a risk if Ethereum’s RSI fails to clear its prior high during any breakout attempt.

    XRP: Holding Key Support Amid Sideways Action

    XRP continues to defend a critical support zone between $1.30 and $1.40 on the weekly chart, with the token trading sideways in the shorter term. Immediate support sits near $1.34 to $1.35, while resistance lies at $1.46 to $1.47. Because Bitcoin dominance has pulled back slightly, altcoins including XRP may hold up better than Bitcoin during this cooling-off period rather than falling in lockstep.

    Treasury Buybacks Add a Macro Layer

    Away from the charts, the U.S. Treasury bought back $12.5 billion in short-term debt today and is expected to repurchase up to $6 billion in long-term bonds tomorrow—triple the usual size. The moves are aimed at managing bond market liquidity and containing yields, a dynamic that continues to factor into broader risk asset sentiment alongside crypto’s technical setup.

  • Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $70K if $78K Neckline Breaks

    Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $70K if $78K Neckline Breaks

    Bitcoin Holds Near $78,500 as Technical Pressure and Macro Risks Mount

    Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $78,500 on September 9 after retreating from a September 3 peak of $82,283, a decline of roughly 4.6%. The pullback has extended a series of lower highs on the 4-hour chart, with buyers repeatedly defending the $78,000 area but failing to reclaim the psychological $80,000 level.

    4-Hour Technicals Show Fading Momentum

    On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin sat at approximately $78,522, below the middle Bollinger Band at $79,079 and only slightly above the lower band at $78,015. Proximity to the lower band often signals increasing selling pressure, though the nearby support could also trigger a short-term bounce. A recovery above the middle band would be needed to weaken the immediate bearish setup.

    The upper Bollinger Band sits near $80,144, making the $80,000–$80,150 region the first major resistance zone. A daily close above that area would give bulls another chance to challenge recent highs around $81,500 and $82,300.

    The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) read 43.58, below both the neutral 50 mark and its signal average of 44.71, indicating bearish momentum without reaching oversold territory.

    Macro Headwinds: Oil, Yields, and Fed Policy

    Bitcoin’s decline coincided with a broader risk-off move driven by escalating Middle East tensions. Brent crude climbed to $99.22 per barrel on September 9, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $94.13, reviving fears that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated.

    Rising inflation expectations affect Federal Reserve interest-rate projections. Higher rates and bond yields boost returns on lower-risk assets, creating competition for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

    U.S. Treasury yields added pressure. The benchmark 10-year yield surged above 4.85% after the Treasury announced a $6 billion buyback of older bonds (10- to 20-year maturities). The 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2007. Rising yields tighten financial conditions by increasing borrowing costs and reducing appetite for volatile assets.

    Traders are now focused on incoming inflation data and oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting for clues on whether the central bank will maintain a restrictive stance.

    Daily Structure Still Intact, but Head-and-Shoulders Looms

    Daily indicators remain less bearish. Bitcoin continues to trade above the daily Supertrend support at $72,786, meaning the broader recovery structure has not been invalidated despite the recent drop.

    The daily Aroon lines are closely matched at 57.14% and 50%, showing neither buyers nor sellers have established firm control on the higher timeframe.

    Crypto analyst Gerla identified a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder near late-August highs, the head at the September 3 peak, and the right shoulder possibly forming during the latest rebound.

    “$78K–$79K is the line in the sand. Lose that and $70K could come pretty quick,” Gerla said in a Sept. 9 post on X.

    The pattern remains unconfirmed while Bitcoin holds its neckline. A decisive daily close below $78,000 would strengthen the bearish setup and expose the $76,000–$77,000 zone before the larger downside target near $70,000.

    Liquidation Heatmap Highlights Key Liquidity Zones

    CoinGlass’s three-day liquidation heatmap shows heavy leveraged-position clusters above current levels. The strongest nearby liquidity sits between roughly $79,700 and $80,200, with additional concentrations extending toward $82,000. These levels can act as magnets during high-leverage periods, though they do not guarantee price will reach them. A recovery through $79,100 could trigger short liquidations and fuel a test of the $80,000 cluster.

    Downside liquidity is concentrated near $78,000 and between approximately $77,500 and $77,800. A break below current support could accelerate volatility as leveraged longs are closed. Further liquidity appears around $76,000, aligning with the next technical support area beneath the proposed neckline.

    Key Levels to Watch

    • Immediate range: Lower Bollinger Band (~$78,015) to middle band (~$79,079). Holding $78,000 keeps a relief move toward $79,700–$80,150 in play.
    • Bullish trigger: Sustained break above $80,150 weakens the short-term bearish structure and puts $81,500 and $82,283 back in focus. Clearing the September peak would confirm a renewed uptrend.
    • Bearish confirmation: Daily close below $78,000 shifts focus to $77,500, then the wider $76,000–$77,000 support zone. The head-and-shoulders interpretation gains credibility below the neckline, though the daily Supertrend near $72,786 remains a critical barrier before the $70,000 scenario can develop.
  • Bitcoin Gold Cross Alert: Analyst Warns “Bullish at First, But Then…”

    Bitcoin Gold Cross Alert: Analyst Warns “Bullish at First, But Then…”

    Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned investors that Bitcoin historically declines following a “Golden Cross” pattern, a technical formation typically interpreted as a bullish signal.

    Golden Cross Often Precedes Short-Term Pullback

    The Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. While technicians widely view this crossover as a long-term buy signal, Cowen’s analysis of past cycles shows the pattern frequently coincides with local market tops.

    Analyst: “Bitcoin Generally Seen to Decline After a Gold Crossover”

    According to Cowen, the rallies that precede the Golden Cross push the moving averages higher to create the crossover. However, once the intersection is complete, the market often experiences sell-offs from those local highs. Historical data from the 2019 and 2023 Golden Cross events shows pullbacks ranging between 12% and 15% at the moment of intersection, followed by recovery and new local highs.

    Current Pullback Considered Natural

    Cowen characterizes the ongoing pullback as a natural market structure development. He emphasizes that the critical factor is not the depth of the initial selling wave, but the character of the rebound rally that follows. It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will establish a new high or form a lower peak after the sell-off concludes.

    Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios for Q4

    Outlining forward-looking scenarios, Cowen stated that a higher peak during the rebound would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, if the rebound remains weak and forms a lower peak—similar to the price action observed in 2014 and 2015—the risk of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter could increase.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Solana Price Rises for First Time in 10 Months: What’s Next for SOL?

    Solana Price Rises for First Time in 10 Months: What’s Next for SOL?

    Solana (SOL) is showing renewed momentum across multiple key metrics, with August marking the network’s first positive monthly close in nearly a year. The shift coincides with record-breaking growth in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and continued dominance in memecoin trading volume.

    Technical Breakthrough: First Green Monthly Candle in 10 Months

    After flashing red on the charts for almost a year, Solana finally finished a month in the green in August. The gains were powered by the monthly MACD, which moved close to a bullish crossover at press time. Additionally, SOL‘s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke a downtrend that had remained intact for nearly two years.

    While this technical improvement signals a potential trend change, analysts caution that SOL remains well below its previous all-time highs. A single green monthly candle does not confirm a full trend reversal, though it provides a foundation for bulls to build upon after months of sustained selling pressure.

    RWA Ecosystem Hits $4.35 Billion All-Time High

    Solana’s real-world asset ecosystem crossed $4.35 billion in total value locked, setting a new all-time high. The number of RWA holders on the network also climbed above 420,000, placing Solana among the market’s largest chains for tokenized assets despite competition from Ethereum (ETH) and other Layer 1 networks targeting the same institutional market.

    Memecoin Volume Dominance: 67% of Multichain DEX Activity

    On September 7, Solana captured approximately 67% of spot decentralized exchange (DEX) memecoin volume across tracked chains. This figure nearly triples Robinhood’s 23% share, while BNB Chain accounted for another 9%.

    Memecoin trading has historically been one of Solana’s strongest drivers of on-chain activity. Sustained dominance in this sector could continue to support transaction demand and liquidity across the broader ecosystem.

    Key Takeaways

    • August 2024: First positive monthly candle for SOL in 10 months.
    • RWA Milestone: $4.35 billion total value locked, 420,000+ holders.
    • Volume Leadership: 67% share of multichain memecoin DEX volume (Sept 7).
  • PONS Sees $2.78M Cumberland Buy – Why This Zone Is Crucial

    PONS Sees $2.78M Cumberland Buy – Why This Zone Is Crucial

    A Cumberland-linked wallet has accumulated 3.5 million $PONS tokens, valued at approximately $2.78 million, signaling institutional demand amid persistent exchange outflows that continue to tighten available supply. According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain, the wallet withdrew the tokens from Gate at an average acquisition price of roughly $0.80, moving a significant position off the exchange while the market price traded below that entry level.

    Institutional Accumulation Coincides with Sustained Exchange Outflows

    The withdrawal shifts a considerable token position into cold storage, reinforcing a supply-constrained backdrop. However, with $PONS trading below the wallet’s $0.80 average cost basis, the position currently sits at an unrealized loss, leaving the accumulation as a demand-zone signal rather than confirmation of an immediate price recovery.

    Exchange flow data from CoinGlass underscores the tightening supply dynamic. Spot netflow remained firmly negative across consecutive daily readings. On September 7, netflow hit –$1.96 million, indicating outflows exceeded inflows by that margin. The negative trend persisted on September 8, with netflow recording –$271,800. Although the imbalance narrowed significantly, outflows continued to surpass inflows in the most recent session, maintaining a limited exchange-supply environment as the Cumberland-linked wallet accumulated separately.

    Daily Chart Tests $0.645 Demand Zone and Bullish Pennant Structure

    Technical analysis on the daily timeframe shows $PONS retreating toward the $0.70 level after failing to sustain its prior advance. Price has now entered a demand zone that extends toward the critical $0.645 support level. The pullback places a developing bullish pennant structure at a decisive test; buyers must defend this region for the pattern to retain validity and support another attempt toward overhead liquidity.

    Momentum indicators reflect the cooling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 47.03, slightly below neutral territory following the earlier rally. Its moving average remains elevated at 56.07, highlighting the rapid fade in buying strength. A rebound from the demand zone would likely preserve the bullish structure and reopen the $0.922–$0.96 region as the next major resistance zone. Sustained strength above that band could bring the psychological $1.00 level back into focus. Source: TradingView

    Liquidation Heatmap Highlights Overhead Leverage Clusters

    Binance liquidation heatmap data from CoinGlass supports the upside scenario by concentrating the densest leverage liquidity clusters above the current price rather than below it. The strongest nearby cluster sits in the $0.76–$0.79 zone, creating a clear overhead liquidity magnet. With $PONS trading near $0.70, this cluster is within reach of a renewed recovery move. A stronger reversal could propel the token toward those levels as leveraged positions face mounting liquidation pressure. Additional liquidity bands extend toward the $0.85 zone, mapping further upside targets. Source: CoinGlass

    Key Levels to Watch

    If buyers reclaim the nearby liquidation cluster around $0.76–$0.79, the technical path toward the $0.922 price level could strengthen considerably. Conversely, a decisive break below $0.645 would invalidate the demand-zone defense and undermine the bullish pennant scenario.

    Summary

    • Cumberland-linked accumulation of 3.5M $PONS ($2.78M) at ~$0.80 avg price signals institutional interest.
    • Persistent negative spot netflows (–$1.96M Sept 7; –$271.8K Sept 8) tighten exchange supply.
    • Price tests $0.645 demand zone; bullish pennant structure hinges on buyer defense.
    • Overhead liquidation clusters at $0.76–$0.79 and $0.85 create magnetic upside targets if momentum returns.
    • Invalidation: Daily close below $0.645 weakens the bullish case.
  • USELESS Coin Surges After Bithumb Listing Sparks $3.2M Whale Purchase

    USELESS Coin Surges After Bithumb Listing Sparks $3.2M Whale Purchase

    Useless Coin Surges 19% on Bithumb Listing and Whale Accumulation

    Useless Coin ($USELESS) climbed more than 19% in the past 24 hours, pushing weekly gains above 169% as of press time. Daily trading volume declined but remained sufficient for liquidity needs, with the volume-to-market-cap ratio holding at 47%.

    Key Catalysts Behind the Rally

    The rebound follows a three-day correction from the $0.3188 level. Three primary factors drove the surge: a major exchange listing, a sharp rise in Open Interest (OI), and significant capital inflows from large holders.

    Bithumb Listing Expands Asian Market Access

    The primary driver was increased exposure to the Asian market. South Korean exchange Bithumb listed $USELESS against the Korean Won (KRW), signaling expanding retail and institutional attention in the region.

    Following the listing, Open Interest for the memecoin reached a new all-time high of $146 million, more than doubling the previous peak of $70 million recorded in October 2025. The surge in OI indicates rising buy-side contract activity for $USELESS.

    Source: CoinGlass

    Whale and Institutional Accumulation Signals Long-Term Conviction

    On-chain data reveals substantial accumulation by major holders. A single whale withdrew 14 million $USELESS tokens—valued at approximately $3.20 million—from Coinbase Prime Custody to a private wallet at the $0.215 price zone.

    Additional transactions show institutional-grade custody movements. Over 440,000 tokens moved from Gate exchange to Fireblocks Custody, while 2.20 million coins flowed into KuCoin’s cold wallet. These patterns suggest serious participants are positioning for extended holding periods.

    Source: Arkham

    Traders monitoring chain activity from these wallets—including known market makers—may gain early insight into future market moves.

    Technical Outlook: Can $USELESS Hold Above $0.19?

    Technically, $USELESS is ranging near its 2026 highs and approaching that resistance level. Buying pressure between $0.19 and $0.21 supports potential short-term continuation. However, the token remains 64% below its all-time high of $0.4375.

    The $0.30 supply zone presents a key bearish hurdle, particularly if broader memecoin sector momentum fades. Losing $0.20 as support would shift control to sellers, while a sustained break above $0.30 would reinforce buyer dominance.

    Source: $USELESS/USDT on TradingView

    The Choppiness Index reading at 50 is declining, signaling that the uptrend is gradually strengthening. The MACD has turned green, though small histogram bars indicate the trend lacks robust momentum. Overall, $USELESS maintains a bullish market structure as momentum returns.

    Summary

    • 24-hour gain: +19%
    • Weekly gain: +169%
    • Key catalyst: Bithumb KRW listing and whale accumulation
    • Current range: $0.19 – $0.30
    • Critical levels: Support at $0.20; resistance at $0.30
    • Technical bias: Bullish structure with improving momentum
  • XRP Price Target Following Cup-and-Handle Retest

    XRP Price Target Following Cup-and-Handle Retest

    XRP Price Analysis: Cup-and-Handle Pattern Suggests Potential Breakout Toward $3.63 and Beyond

    XRP has entered a critical technical phase following its August rally, with the weekly chart now signaling a possible cup-and-handle breakout formation. The current price structure indicates the recent decline may represent a retest of this breakout level. If XRP maintains key support and eventually clears the handle resistance, technical projections point to several upside targets, including $3.6330, $6.8899, and $13.5687.

    As of early September, XRP trades around $1.39, reflecting a gain of approximately 3.5% over the past week. The broader structure originates from XRP’s decline from its July 2025 cycle high near $3.65 to a low of roughly $0.99 in mid-August 2026, a drawdown of nearly 73%. That August low sparked a sharp recovery, with XRP surging more than 60% in just a few days to reach an interim high near $1.70.

    Catalysts Behind the August Rebound

    The rebound coincided with several positive developments: expectations of increased liquidity injections, renewed optimism surrounding the CLARITY Act, whale accumulation activity, and continued inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds. However, the rally proved short-lived.

    August Flash Crash Forms the Handle

    On August 22, XRP experienced a flash crash that erased more than 37% of its value intraday. The move triggered approximately $500 million in leveraged long liquidations before the token found stability. Since then, XRP has consolidated throughout the first week of September within a tightening range between $1.30 and $1.50.

    This consolidation range gives the weekly chart a structure that could evolve into the handle portion of a larger cup-and-handle formation. Within this framework, XRP faces resistance around $1.45 to $1.50, while buyers have established stronger support near $1.35, followed by the $1.30 to $1.31 zone. As long as XRP defends these levels, the bullish structure remains valid.

    Weekly Chart Also Shows Descending Wedge

    On the weekly timeframe, XRP’s recent price action also forms a descending wedge, with two converging trendlines containing the August rally and subsequent pullback. The current consolidation near $1.30 to $1.40 could represent the handle before XRP attempts to reclaim the resistance shelf above it.

    Fibonacci Extensions Target $3.63, $6.89, and $13.57

    Fibonacci extensions drawn from the prior price swing provide a series of potential upside objectives. The first target sits at $2.4062, followed by $3.6330, $6.8899, and finally $13.5687. The $3.6330 level carries particular significance because it aligns with XRP’s July 2025 cycle high near $3.65.

    This makes the $3.63 area a crucial test if XRP completes the cup-and-handle breakout. A decisive move beyond that region could then shift market focus toward the higher $6.8899 and $13.5687 Fibonacci extensions. Reaching the $13.5687 target from the current $1.39 price would require a rally of more than 800%, demanding substantially stronger momentum than the initial breakout.

    Key Support at $1.35 Must Hold

    Several factors continue to support the bullish interpretation. First, XRP has remained above its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level it failed to reclaim in May before dropping toward $0.98. Additionally, a potential golden cross — where the 50-week moving average crosses above the 200-week moving average — could develop, adding weight to the longer-term bullish case.

    However, momentum has already cooled. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to around 58 after previously reaching overbought territory, while trading volume has declined since early September. These conditions indicate XRP needs renewed buying pressure to push through the $1.45 to $1.50 resistance zone and confirm the handle breakout.

    For now, $1.35 remains the pivotal level for the bullish setup. A daily and weekly close below it would weaken the structure, while a break under $1.30 could expose the next support around $1.23. Such a move would place the cup-and-handle thesis under serious pressure before XRP could reach the $2.4062 or $3.6330 targets.

  • Solana Tests $100 Support as Whale Traders Bet on Price Rebound

    Solana Tests $100 Support as Whale Traders Bet on Price Rebound

    Solana (SOL) slipped 2% on Tuesday, trading near $102, yet a cluster of large derivatives traders is positioning for a continuation of the asset’s recent recovery. Five whale addresses on Hyperliquid collectively opened $9.11 million in SOL long positions between September 7 and September 8, according to CoinGlass data.

    Whale Long Positions Signal Confidence Ahead of Network Upgrade

    The concentrated bullish exposure suggests these traders expect Solana to extend the rebound that began on August 17. Their combined $9.11 million commitment reflects confidence that the upcoming network improvement could spark renewed buying demand. Long positions profit when the underlying asset rises, though they carry liquidation risk if SOL resumes its decline. While the activity of a few large traders does not guarantee a rally, sizable whale moves often influence sentiment, especially ahead of a major protocol change.

    Solana’s September 9 Upgrade Expands Transaction Capacity

    The scheduled upgrade will raise the maximum transaction size from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes. This increase allows developers to pack more instructions into a single operation, bundling processes that previously required multiple separate transactions. By more than tripling the size limit, Solana aims to support more complex applications and reduce the need to split related instructions across several transactions.

    Additional context on the upgrade can be found in this post by Scott Melker.

    Broader Derivatives Metrics Remain Bearish

    Despite the whale long positions, Solana’s wider futures market continues to show caution. SOL’s funding rate sits at a positive 0.0025%, meaning long holders are paying shorts to maintain their trades — a sign of stronger demand for bullish positions. However, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.94, indicating short accounts outnumber long accounts. This reading reinforces the view that the five Hyperliquid whales are taking a contrarian stance against prevailing futures sentiment.

    Demand for SOL derivatives has also weakened. Trading volume fell 10% to $6.58 billion, while open interest declined 1.21% to $6.47 billion. Lower volume signals reduced trading activity, and declining open interest shows leveraged positions are being closed. Together, these metrics suggest futures traders are reducing exposure as SOL approaches its upgrade.

    Institutional Demand Paints a More Constructive Picture

    On the institutional side, Solana exchange-traded funds have recorded inflows for ten consecutive weeks. This streak indicates that demand through regulated investment products remains resilient despite weaker futures activity. The result is a divided market outlook: whale positioning and ETF inflows favor an eventual recovery, while negative funding, falling open interest, and a sub‑one long‑to‑short ratio point to short‑term caution. SOL’s reaction to the September 9 upgrade could determine which side gains control.

    Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Points to $124 Resistance or $84 Support

    On the four‑hour chart, SOL is trading within a symmetrical triangle — a pattern that reflects tightening price action and can break out in either direction. The formation’s projected height is approximately 16%. A decisive break below the lower trendline could send SOL down a similar percentage toward $84. Before that target comes into view, sellers would need to push price below the psychological support at $100.

    Conversely, a clear move above the triangle resistance at $107 could trigger a 16% rally toward $124. Momentum currently leans toward sellers: the Relative Strength Index sits at 44, below the neutral 50 level, and its lower lows indicate growing selling pressure. Solana’s immediate outlook therefore hinges on the triangle’s boundaries. Holding $100 and breaking above $107 would strengthen the whale‑backed bullish scenario, while losing triangle support could expose SOL to a decline toward $84.