Daily News 19

Tag: Kevin Warsh

  • Bitcoin Price Falls After Warsh’s Hawkish Jackson Hole Keynote

    Bitcoin Price Falls After Warsh’s Hawkish Jackson Hole Keynote

    Bitcoin has pulled back from its weekly high of $81,455, but its August gains remain substantial. As of Aug. 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m., bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,588 to $77,984 per coin. The leading cryptocurrency had declined about 2% to 2.5% over the previous 24 hours, while still gaining 23.2% against the U.S. dollar since Aug. 15.

    Bitcoin’s initial rally followed the Treasury’s mid-August announcement about expanding bond buybacks. During the same week, U.S. President Donald Trump met with several cryptocurrency industry executives and made positive comments about the sector. He discussed bringing Hyperliquid to the United States and remained open to acquiring substantial amounts of $BTC after receiving advice from members of his administration.

    Those developments helped drive demand for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded nine consecutive days of inflows. The streak ended Friday, when spot bitcoin ETFs posted their first day of outflows, with approximately $202 million leaving the funds.

    Sticky Inflation Meets Positive Crypto News

    Several developments put pressure on bitcoin toward the end of the week. U.S. inflation remained persistent, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising in July. Bitcoin initially absorbed the news and recovered from a modest decline before reaching its weekly high of $81,455.

    Additional positive developments supported the market, including a proposed draft to rewrite U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) custody rules and Charles Schwab’s expansion of its digital asset offerings.

    Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Pressures Bitcoin

    Market sentiment shifted during the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first speech at the annual event. Speaking at 10 a.m. EDT on Friday, Warsh addressed the symposium’s theme, “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

    The keynote was viewed as hawkish. Warsh said the U.S. central bank has “work to do” and argued that specific financial conditions remain difficult. He also said forward guidance had “overstayed its welcome.”

    Following the speech, the probability of a rate hike rose immediately from 35% to the mid-50% range. Treasury yields increased, while precious metals such as gold posted modest declines.

    Before Warsh’s keynote, bitcoin was trading sideways near $79,500. After the speech, its price briefly fell below $77,000 before buyers absorbed the intraday selling pressure. The move also coincided with the first day spot bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows after their extended inflow streak.

    Despite the break in consecutive inflow days, August remains a strong month for spot bitcoin ETF demand, with approximately $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion entering the funds.

    Bitcoin Tests $77,000 Support as Technical Indicators Signal Overheating

    Bitcoin’s immediate resistance this weekend is positioned between $79,500 and $80,300, a range the cryptocurrency lost following the Federal Reserve chair’s speech. Resistance becomes stronger at higher price levels.

    Support is currently holding near the $76,800 to $77,000 zone. Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume was approximately $28.731 billion. Technical indicators suggest momentum had already become stretched before the keynote. The daily relative strength index (RSI) was at 70, while the Stochastic indicator was higher at 85, indicating overbought conditions.

    Although the RSI is neutral and the Stochastic indicator points to overheating, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) remains positive. Taken together, the oscillators and moving averages suggest bullish momentum is still intact despite bitcoin’s latest decline—at least for now.

  • Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates in September? Latest Probability Figures Revealed

    Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates in September? Latest Probability Figures Revealed

    Expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its September meeting have increased sharply after cautious comments on inflation from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. The probability of a rate hike in forecasting markets has reached one of its highest levels in recent months, while U.S. Treasury yields have also risen significantly.

    Rate hike expectations shift ahead of September Fed meeting

    Market expectations are changing rapidly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on September 16. Data from forecasting markets indicate that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is about 55%, while a 25-basis-point rate hike is priced at approximately 46%. The probability of a larger increase is estimated at only about 1%.

    CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that investors have raised the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting to 55.7%, an increase of approximately 20 basis points in a single day.

    Warsh says inflation trend has not improved significantly

    Speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation remains elevated.

    Warsh acknowledged that inflation data released during the summer was more positive than expected but said it did not demonstrate a lasting improvement in underlying inflation trends.

    Warsh stated, “While inflation data released this summer was better than expected, it doesn’t indicate a significant improvement in underlying trends.”

    The Fed chairman added that policymakers must ensure inflation is moving clearly and quickly enough toward the level targeted by the central bank.

    Warsh indicated that the Fed could otherwise need to tighten monetary policy further, saying, “Otherwise, we have more work to do. This is our duty, our authority, and our responsibility.”

    However, Warsh did not provide direct guidance on how the Fed will act at upcoming meetings or offer a definitive framework for the economic data that will determine future interest rate decisions.

    U.S. Treasury yields rise after Warsh’s remarks

    Following Warsh’s speech, U.S. stock indexes rose, while selling pressure emerged in the bond market.

    The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, climbed approximately 8 basis points to 4.31%. That was the highest level for the 2-year yield since the end of July.

    The increase in short-term Treasury yields suggests that investors increasingly expect the Fed to pursue tighter monetary policy in the coming period.

    With approximately two and a half weeks remaining before the September meeting, upcoming inflation and employment data are expected to be critical in determining the direction of interest rate expectations. If inflation remains stronger than expected, the likelihood of a rate hike will increase. A significant slowdown in price pressures, however, could reinforce expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Bitcoin Drops After Warsh Speech as Rate-Hike Odds Reach 57% — Can BTC Reclaim $80K?

    Bitcoin Drops After Warsh Speech as Rate-Hike Odds Reach 57% — Can BTC Reclaim $80K?

    Bitcoin price fell 3% to $77,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole event, signalling that the central bank may not be finished fighting inflation despite recent macroeconomic data.

    We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.

    Discussing the latest summer inflation data, Warsh added:

    While this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.

    Why did Bitcoin fall below $80,000?

    U.S. equities and cryptocurrency markets interpreted Warsh’s comments as hawkish. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.52%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.25%. Crypto markets followed, with Bitcoin leading the downturn with a 3% drop.

    Source: $BTC/USDT, TradingView

    Bitcoin had rallied 30% in the second half of August, supported by the Treasury’s planned $1 trillion intervention to curb rising bond yields. The upswing also helped BTC reclaim its crucial 200-day moving average.

    However, the rally has stalled below $80,000, delaying Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim the 50-week moving average at $81,800 and officially mark the end of the BTC bear-market cycle.

    Can Bitcoin rally despite September Fed rate hike fears?

    Inflation directly influences Federal Reserve interest-rate policy and risk sentiment across financial markets. Following Warsh’s speech, interest-rate traders raised the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 57%, a 20% increase from the previous week. The repricing reinforced renewed fears of another rate hike.

    Source: CME FedWatch

    Bitcoin options traders, including sophisticated professionals and institutional investors, also moved to increase downside protection.

    This was reflected in the BTC 25 Delta Skew, which rose from -10% to nearly 5%, representing a 15% increase and signalling renewed demand for downside hedging.

    During Bitcoin’s explosive rally last week, the metric fell below 0% for the first time this year. That indicated traders were reducing their downside hedges as many analysts expected the rally, supported by the so-called debasement trade, to continue amid concerns over U.S. fiscal debt and turmoil in the bond market.

    Source: Velo

    The metric’s weekend spike now suggests that Warsh has forced Bitcoin bulls to reassess their strategy.

    Analyst Luke Gromen, however, believes the bond-market crisis will overshadow Federal Reserve rate decisions in the short term.

    It remains a variant perception that both Fed hikes or cuts will cause the long end to rise…even as long bond yields are now up on Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ speech today.

    If fears of a Fed rate hike intensify and weigh on market sentiment, Bitcoin’s price could retrace toward its 200-day moving average at $69,300.

    However, if the debasement-trade narrative continues, the $80,000 level could become support for the next leg of the uptrend.

    Bitcoin price outlook

    Bitcoin fell 3% to $77,000 after Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech. The Nasdaq declined 0.52%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.25%. Meanwhile, the probability of a September Fed rate hike increased to 57%.

  • Why Bitcoin Crashed After Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech—and What Happens Next

    Why Bitcoin Crashed After Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech—and What Happens Next

    Bitcoin’s recovery from below $65,000 to above $81,000 has encountered its first major macroeconomic setback after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message at Jackson Hole on Friday. The key question now is whether the prospect of higher interest rates and rising U.S. Treasury yields could undermine the cryptocurrency market’s sharp rebound.

    Bitcoin ($BTC) held relatively steady during Warsh’s speech, but fell by $3,000 within hours of its conclusion, dropping below $77,000 for the first time in nearly a week. The sell-off spread across financial markets, weighing on stocks, precious metals and other risk-sensitive assets.

    Why Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Hurt Bitcoin

    Warsh did not explicitly say that the Federal Reserve is seriously considering raising interest rates, but his message was clear. Inflation remains elevated, the U.S. economy remains strong, and the central bank cannot simply declare victory. The Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge is currently at 3.7% year over year, while its six-month annualized rate is even higher at 4.1%. Both measures remain well above the Fed’s target.

    Warsh emphasized that the Fed’s 2% inflation objective is “firm and fixed” and argued that price stability will not restore itself without further action from the central bank.

    He also played down some of the summer’s more encouraging inflation data, including the June figures, saying they had not convinced him or his colleagues that the underlying trend had improved substantially. Until the Fed can reassure markets that inflation is moving toward 2% “clearly and at sufficient speed,” policymakers will continue to “have work to do,” he added.

    Rate-Hike Expectations Rise as Bitcoin Falls

    Before Warsh’s speech, traders had assigned a one-third chance to an interest-rate increase in September. Those odds moved toward 60% after the speech, based on market pricing cited by Reuters. U.S. Treasury yields climbed again, while the dollar strengthened sharply after weakening the previous week.

    That is almost the opposite of the macroeconomic backdrop that helped Bitcoin surge 10 days earlier. The shift may explain why BTC fell from a recent peak above $80,000 to below $77,000 within hours, pulling most altcoins lower as well.

    Warsh also highlighted business investment growth of roughly 9% annually and a 20% rise in the S&P 500. Unemployment remained around 4%, while credit conditions were relatively easy. In practical terms, the economy is not currently giving the central bank an obvious reason to accept inflation above its target.

    Higher expected policy rates generally push Treasury yields higher, increasing the returns investors can earn from assets viewed as considerably safer. A more hawkish Federal Reserve also tends to support the U.S. dollar and tighten broader financial conditions. Historically, that combination has been unfavorable for Bitcoin and more speculative altcoins.

    Treasury Support Conflicts With the Fed’s Inflation Fight

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent intervention in the bond market helped drive long-term yields lower, at least temporarily, and contributed to Bitcoin’s major rally. However, Warsh reminded investors that the Federal Reserve has a different mandate.

    The Treasury may want to reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity, but the central bank must continue addressing inflation that remains above its target.

    As a result, markets remain caught between two powerful forces: Treasury efforts to support financial conditions and a Federal Reserve that may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer than investors had expected.

    Source: cryptonews.net

  • Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Prompts Markets to Reassess Fed Rate Outlook

    Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Prompts Markets to Reassess Fed Rate Outlook

    Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to outline his approach to monetary policy, inflation control, economic conditions, financial markets and the growing role of artificial intelligence in the economy.

    Markets reacted quickly, with investors adjusting expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions. Treasury yields moved higher as traders increased bets that the central bank could keep interest rates elevated or consider additional increases if inflation fails to improve further.

    🇺🇸 Kevin Warsh just delivered his first ever Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, and the tone was hawkish1. Inflation data doesn’t show meaningful improvement, 2% target remains firm and fixed2. Fed has more work to do unless underlying inflation moves toward target with speed…
    — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) August 28, 2026

    The post from Bull Theory on X described Warsh’s speech as hawkish and highlighted his comments on inflation, economic activity, artificial intelligence investment and monetary policy. The discussion reflected market attention on Warsh’s first major public address as Fed chair.

    Warsh’s message centered on the need for clearer evidence that inflation is moving steadily toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal before policymakers change direction.

    Inflation Remains the Federal Reserve’s Main Focus

    Warsh said recent inflation data has not improved enough for the Federal Reserve to become comfortable with current price trends. He reiterated that the central bank’s 2% inflation target remains unchanged.

    The Fed chair said policymakers must continue monitoring underlying inflation measures. He added that more work would be necessary if inflation does not move toward the target at a faster pace.

    Investors viewed the remarks as a signal that the Federal Reserve is not ready to shift toward easier monetary policy. Market participants had been watching Jackson Hole for indications that the Fed might become more supportive of interest-rate cuts.

    Instead, Warsh maintained a firm position on inflation control. His comments increased attention on upcoming economic releases, including inflation reports and employment data.

    Short-term Treasury markets reflected the change in expectations. The two-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, moved higher after the speech.

    Strong US Economy Gives the Fed More Policy Space

    Warsh also discussed the condition of the US economy. He said consumer spending remained healthy and business investment continued to expand.

    The Fed chair pointed to strong economic activity as evidence that higher interest rates have not caused a major slowdown. He also noted that unemployment remains low.

    Warsh said business investment had increased at a strong pace, with spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure contributing to recent growth. He said companies are investing heavily in new technology, although the timing of productivity gains remains uncertain.

    The comments gave investors another factor to consider when assessing future monetary policy. Strong economic activity could allow the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter financial conditions for longer if inflation remains above target.

    Markets had been watching whether economic weakness would force the central bank to consider faster rate cuts. Warsh’s remarks provided a different signal by emphasizing continued economic strength.

    Treasury Yields Rise as Markets Reprice Interest Rates

    The initial market response centered on interest-rate expectations. Treasury yields rose after Warsh indicated that additional measures may be needed if inflation does not improve.

    The increase in short-term yields showed that traders were changing their expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and factoring in a greater risk of tighter policy.

    The US dollar also attracted attention after the speech as markets assessed the prospect of higher interest rates. A stronger interest-rate outlook can increase demand for dollar-denominated assets.

    Equity markets were mixed as investors evaluated the effect of higher borrowing costs on companies. Technology stocks remained in focus because of their role in artificial intelligence investment and their future earnings outlook.

    Warsh did not provide specific guidance on the next rate decision. Instead, he indicated that future action would depend on economic data.

    The approach marked a shift away from detailed forward guidance. Warsh has previously supported a Federal Reserve that communicates less about future decisions and places greater emphasis on incoming economic information.

    Artificial Intelligence Investment Enters the Fed’s Policy Discussion

    Artificial intelligence was another major topic in Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. The Fed chair discussed how AI investment could influence productivity and economic growth.

    Warsh said companies are spending heavily on AI-related infrastructure. However, he questioned how quickly those investments would translate into broader productivity gains.

    The discussion showed that the Federal Reserve is monitoring technology trends as part of its economic assessment. AI development could affect employment, business investment and future growth rates.

    The comments gave financial markets another theme to consider alongside inflation and interest rates. As the Fed maintains a cautious policy stance, investors are watching whether AI investment can help increase corporate profits and productivity.

    Warsh’s priorities became clearer in his first Jackson Hole speech: keeping inflation on a steady path, relying on economic data and avoiding hasty decisions on monetary policy.

    Traders turned to rate futures and the Treasury market’s higher yields to assess short-term expectations and monitor the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

    Upcoming inflation and employment data, along with comments from other Fed officials, will shape the market’s next response.

  • Bitcoin and Gold Plunge as Kevin Warsh Signals Tighter Federal Reserve Policy

    Bitcoin and Gold Plunge as Kevin Warsh Signals Tighter Federal Reserve Policy

    Investors turned cautious on August 28 as the U.S. dollar strengthened and markets assessed more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh during his first speech as Fed chair at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

    Bitcoin dropped below $79,000, while gold and silver also suffered steep losses. The sell-off reportedly erased approximately $670 billion in market value in just seven minutes.

    The common factor was a stronger dollar and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates high to bring inflation under control.

    Warsh Signals That Further Tightening Remains Possible

    Warsh suggested that the Fed’s fight against inflation may not be over, saying that financial conditions don’t seem restrictive enough right now. Although he did not promise an immediate rate hike, the Fed chair made clear that additional monetary tightening remains on the table.

    That outlook is changing investor positioning, particularly for assets that tend to perform well when money is inexpensive and interest rates are low.

    What the Sell-Off Means for Bitcoin and Gold

    Warsh’s remarks and the broader market sell-off have added uncertainty for investors. The key question is whether Bitcoin’s and gold’s recent gains reflected genuine, long-term market shifts or were driven largely by expectations that monetary policy would become increasingly supportive.

    Investors are now watching the dollar, Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations for further signals. A stronger dollar could make conditions more difficult for both Bitcoin and gold by reducing their appeal.

    If the dollar continues to rise and yields remain elevated, Bitcoin may face further pressure. However, if markets interpret Warsh’s comments as a warning rather than a signal of aggressive rate hikes, the latest decline could prove to be another sharp market swing rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

    Warsh’s speech was not the only factor behind the decline. Markets were already highly sensitive, with investors preparing for a significant signal on the future direction of monetary policy.

    For now, Bitcoin’s decline and gold’s underperformance suggest that investor sentiment has shifted away from hedging against currency devaluation and toward assessing how many additional interest-rate hikes markets may still need to price in.

    Source: cryptonews.net

  • Bitfinex Signals Start of Bitcoin Bull Market as Gold Correlation Hits Record High

    Bitfinex Signals Start of Bitcoin Bull Market as Gold Correlation Hits Record High

    Bitfinex has highlighted Bitcoin’s rising price correlation with gold as the market’s debasement trade narrative evolves. Analysts say Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like digital gold as investors seek protection against rising debt and monetary manipulation.

    The exchange warned that the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has reached levels that typically do not persist for long, potentially signaling a shift in the current trend.

    “Both trade as one debasement hedge, $BTC the higher-beta version, but this reading has broken before. A potential risk-off environment shows whether bitcoin holds with gold or falls with stocks,”

    Bitfinex said the correlation comes as the macroeconomic backdrop shifts away from the artificial intelligence boom and toward the debasement trade. Recent actions by the U.S. Treasury, along with worsening concerns about U.S. debt, are influencing economic forecasts and prompting renewed questions about the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.

    Bitcoin enters price expansion phase

    Bitfinex also described Bitcoin as a key asset for technology-focused investors pursuing the debasement trade. The exchange said Bitcoin has moved beyond its accumulation phase and entered a period of price expansion.

    “The Delta-Thermo Market Multiple reads 2.03, at the 2.5x threshold where the bull phase begins, with the 3.5x distribution top well above. The model marks this as the start of the bull phase, not a run into a top,”

    The current market setup resembles conditions seen in 2024, when JPMorgan strategists tied the investment trend to “concerns about ‘debt debasement’ due to persistently high government deficits across major economies, waning confidence in fiat currencies in certain emerging markets, and to a broader diversification away from the dollar.”

    However, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh challenged the debasement trade narrative in his Jackson Hole debut by adopting a hawkish stance. He stressed that the central bank’s 2% inflation target remained achievable and hinted at potential interest rate increases ahead.

  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Triggers $488 Million Crypto Liquidation Cascade as Rate Hike Expectations Rise

    Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Triggers $488 Million Crypto Liquidation Cascade as Rate Hike Expectations Rise

    Bitcoin fell below $77,000 on Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh revived concerns that interest rates could move higher at Jackson Hole.

    Data from CryptoSlate showed Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, dropping as low as $76,909 before recovering to $77,712 at press time. The cryptocurrency remained down about 4% over the previous 24 hours.

    The decline intensified a broader crypto deleveraging event that wiped out nearly $488 million from derivatives traders as markets sharply repriced expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

    Warsh revives rate-hike fears

    Traders raised the probability of a September rate increase to about 60%, up from roughly 35% before Warsh’s remarks. Short-term Treasury yields also climbed, while the US dollar strengthened.

    Warsh gave investors several reasons to reassess expectations that the Federal Reserve was preparing to ease monetary policy. He argued that inflation remained too high despite improved price data during the summer.

    The Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index was running at 3.7% over the past year and at a 4.1% annualized pace over the past six months. Both readings remain well above the central bank’s 2% target.

    Recent inflation reports had not convinced Warsh that the underlying trend had changed. He said:

    “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

    Warsh also questioned whether current borrowing conditions were restraining demand sufficiently. Credit markets showed limited signs of policy restraint, while corporate bond spreads remained historically narrow and bank lending standards relatively easy.

    He added:

    “I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”

    The combination delivered a hawkish signal to financial markets. Warsh described labor conditions as consistent with full employment, pointed to healthy consumer spending and strong business investment, and said the Fed’s “predominant focus right now should be on prices.”

    For crypto traders, the implication was immediate. A resilient economy gives the Fed more room to keep monetary policy tight, while persistent inflation increases the risk that its next move could be another rate increase rather than the easier financial conditions that risk assets had been anticipating.

    The two-year Treasury yield rose to a one-month high after the remarks as investors increased their bets on another rate increase.

    Leveraged crypto traders suffer nearly $488 million in liquidations

    The shift in rate expectations hit a crypto market that had entered Friday with substantial leveraged exposure following Bitcoin’s recent rally above $80,000.

    CoinGlass recorded $487.68 million in liquidations across the cryptocurrency market during the previous 24 hours, affecting 97,691 traders. More than $200 million in positions were closed within one hour of Warsh’s speech.

    Bitcoin and Ethereum led crypto liquidations as 24-hour losses reached $487.81 million across 97,772 traders. Source: CoinGlass

    Long positions accounted for more than $360 million of the losses, indicating that traders positioned for further gains absorbed most of the reversal. Bitcoin positions generated about $141 million of the liquidations.

    The largest individual liquidation was an $11.66 million ETH-USDT position on Binance.

    Warsh’s speech also affected the gold market. Reports said gold and silver lost more than $700 billion in combined market value following the remarks.

    Higher interest-rate expectations create several simultaneous headwinds for cryptocurrency markets. Rising Treasury yields increase the returns available from dollar-denominated assets, while a stronger dollar typically tightens financial conditions for speculative investments.

    Expectations for more restrictive monetary policy can also reduce the liquidity that helped drive Bitcoin’s recent advance.

    Friday’s reaction showed how quickly that relationship can reassert itself. Bitcoin had been trading near $80,000 before Warsh’s speech became the dominant macroeconomic catalyst. Contemporaneous reports showed the cryptocurrency falling more than 3% as rate-hike expectations increased.

    Less Fed guidance could increase crypto rate volatility

    Warsh offered little certainty about the Federal Reserve’s next move.

    The chairman has moved away from the forward guidance used heavily by his predecessors, arguing that telegraphing policy paths can distort markets and limit the central bank’s flexibility when economic conditions change.

    He also rejected the idea of giving investors a mechanical reaction function that would dictate how interest rates should respond to individual economic reports.

    This approach could make upcoming inflation and employment data more important for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Traders will have fewer signals from the Fed about how policymakers intend to respond to new economic information.

    Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok has argued that this type of policy regime could push more interest-rate moves outside Federal Reserve meeting days. Investors would continuously reprice economic data instead of waiting for policymakers to validate existing expectations.

    Slok noted that since the Fed began raising rates in 2022, much of the increase in longer-term Treasury yields has occurred outside Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Inflation reports, employment data, Treasury issuance and the term premium became larger drivers of the bond market.

    Warsh reinforced that philosophy on Friday, saying markets should form their own expectations rather than look primarily to the Fed for their “next trade.”

    For Bitcoin, Friday offered an early example of what that environment could look like.

    Warsh stopped short of committing to a September rate increase, leaving incoming data to determine whether the Fed follows through. However, his insistence that inflation remains too high, financial conditions are not particularly restrictive and interest rates remain the central bank’s main policy tool was enough to revive fears of tighter monetary policy.

  • Bitcoin Rally Stalls, but Long-Term Sentiment Remains Bullish

    Bitcoin Rally Stalls, but Long-Term Sentiment Remains Bullish

    Bitcoin fell to $76,877 on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish keynote at Jackson Hole, confirming the resistance zone that had limited the cryptocurrency earlier in the week.

    September rate-hike expectations rose to approximately 56%, up from about 35% a day earlier, after Warsh said the Federal Reserve still has “work to do” on inflation. Despite the sell-off, Myriad traders continued to favor Bitcoin rising to $84,000 over falling to $55,000.

    Bitcoin declined from an overnight high of $81,455, surrendering most of its double-digit weekly gain. The high was reached within a resistance zone that had already capped several attempted breakouts this year.

    Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.

    Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech drives Bitcoin lower

    Warsh marked his 100th day as Fed chair by offering markets no fresh policy guidance, but his comments were enough to pressure risk assets. In his keynote, he said the Fed needs to see inflation moving clearly toward its target and doing so at a sufficient pace before it can declare its work complete. Until then, the central bank still has “work to do.”

    Traders interpreted the remarks as hawkish. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a September rate hike increased to 55.7% from 35.4% the previous day.

    The move also affected leveraged crypto positions. CoinGlass data showed approximately $481 million in liquidations across the cryptocurrency market during the 24 hours surrounding the speech. More than $360 million involved long positions caught off guard by Bitcoin’s decline. Bitcoin ended Friday at $77,557, down 3.39%.

    Bitcoin price analysis: What the charts show

    From a technical perspective, the pullback looks more like a consolidation phase than a confirmed trend reversal. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index stands at 69.7, below the overbought level above 80 that preceded Tuesday’s rejection. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index is near 39.5, still indicating a strong trend rather than a broken one.

    Bitcoin remains within the bullish move that carried it from the June low near $68,858 to this week’s high around $81,455. If selling intensifies, traders are likely to monitor the $73,670-$75,157 area first. A close below that zone would put both the 50-week moving average and the June breakout structure under pressure.

    On the upside, the $81,000-$82,500 area remains the key resistance shelf. Bulls need to reclaim it to establish a path toward fresh highs.

    Myriad traders continue to favor Bitcoin at $84,000

    The longer-term bullish outlook is reflected in Myriad’s “BTC next move” market, which has been active since late February. The market has recorded $231,000 in trading volume and has no fixed resolution date.

    Its two outcomes—a move to $84,000 or a decline to $55,000—have repeatedly exchanged the lead since spring as Bitcoin’s price moved sharply in both directions. That pattern changed this month: the probability of the $84,000 outcome rose by 31.7 percentage points to 77%, compared with 23% for the $55,000 scenario. Friday’s rejection from resistance did not materially alter that split.

    Myriad: Where does Bitcoin go next? Click to make your prediction.

    The last time traders were this bullish was around April.

    Bitcoin’s fundamental support remains intact

    The fundamental case for higher Bitcoin prices has not significantly changed. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $2.8 billion in inflows over eight consecutive days through Wednesday, their longest such streak since April.

    The demand followed a Treasury Department announcement that it would at least double its purchases of long-dated bonds beginning September 9. The move supports a segment of the bond market that has faced weak demand since June. Lower long-term yields and a weaker dollar revived the “debasement trade” that helped Bitcoin climb from approximately $62,000 to $80,000 this month.

    Warsh’s remarks did not change that backdrop. He outlined no explicit interest-rate path and instead highlighted an inflation condition the Fed has not yet met.

    Why Bitcoin traders should watch the bears

    In the short term, the market setup still calls for caution. Warsh’s rejection of forward guidance leaves traders without a clear policy signal until the Fed’s next rate decision. Bitcoin therefore remains vulnerable to headline-driven volatility around every inflation report released before then.

    The PCE price index is increasing at an annual rate of 3.7%, nearly twice the Fed’s 2% target, and Warsh provided no timetable for inflation to return to that level.

    Bitcoin has already faced multiple rejections at the current resistance zone in recent months. Warsh’s speech gave bulls no clear reason to expect the Federal Reserve to make the next attempt at a breakout easier.

    Disclaimer

    The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole: Highlights and Bitcoin’s Initial Reaction

    Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole: Highlights and Bitcoin’s Initial Reaction

    Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has begun his highly anticipated address at the Jackson Hole symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

    In his first speech as Fed chairman, Warsh highlighted inflation as a key concern and adopted a hawkish tone, saying price stability should remain the Federal Reserve’s priority. He noted that although summer inflation data had improved, underlying trends had not changed significantly.

    Key points from Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech

    “I’m struggling to define the financial conditions as restrictive.”

    We need to make sure that the downward trend in inflation is moving towards the target, otherwise we’ll have work to do.

    This summer’s inflation figures are better than expected, but don’t tell me that the underlying trends have changed significantly.

    Consumer spending is healthy, and labor markets are stable.

    The Fed needs to ensure that inflation remains stable.

    The economy remains resilient: consumer spending is healthy, labor markets are stable, and business investment is growing rapidly.

    Warsh also said that at the July meeting, there was a good majority that advocated waiting before changing interest rates.

    Bitcoin falls during Warsh’s speech

    Before Warsh’s address, Bitcoin was trading at around $79,000. After the speech began, its price fell to the $78,000 level. The price movement of Bitcoin during Warsh’s speech was as follows:

    This is not investment advice.