Daily News 19

Tag: Kevin Warsh

  • Markets Eye Federal Reserve: Goolsbee on Inflation, Bessent on Warsh

    Markets Eye Federal Reserve: Goolsbee on Inflation, Bessent on Warsh

    Key Highlights

    • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled openness to rate cuts if inflation meaningfully decelerates toward the 2% target, while emphasizing the need for decisive action against price pressures.
    • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and noted President Donald Trump shares that confidence, alongside an expansion of the Treasury’s bond repurchase program.
    • With U.S. PCE inflation at 3.7% as of July, Goolsbee stressed that reaching the 2% goal depends on easing supply constraints and distinguishing between supply-driven and demand-driven inflation components.

    Goolsbee Outlines Conditional Path for Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Fight

    Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee delivered a nuanced assessment of monetary policy during a meeting in London, stating that the central bank would not oppose interest rate reductions if inflation slows significantly toward its 2% target. His remarks come on the heels of the Fed’s 25 basis point rate increase last week—the first hike since 2023—with markets now pricing potential further increases in October or December. Goolsbee emphasized that the Federal Reserve must have the courage to respond forcefully to inflation when necessary, expressing optimism that the 2% goal remains achievable provided there are no signs of overheating demand.

    Disentangling Supply Shocks from Demand Pressures

    Central to Goolsbee’s analysis is the ongoing effort to parse how much of current inflation stems from supply disruptions versus demand strength. He pointed specifically to robust investment in artificial intelligence as a factor supporting demand, while noting that persistent supply shocks continue to exert upward pressure on prices. As of July, U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation stood at 3.7%, and Goolsbee underscored that returning to the 2% target hinges on the easing of supply-side constraints. Officials, he said, are still analyzing the relative contributions of supply and demand dynamics to the current inflation picture.

    Bessent Backs Warsh, Highlights Treasury Market Operations

    Following the Fed’s latest rate decision, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on CNBC to convey a message of stability regarding Fed leadership. Bessent reiterated his confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and added that President Donald Trump also maintains confidence in Warsh’s stewardship of monetary policy. The Treasury chief also addressed market liquidity conditions, disclosing that the department has increased the size of its bond repurchase program—a move aimed at supporting smooth functioning in the government securities market.

    Central Bank Independence Takes Center Stage

    Goolsbee waded into the institutional dimension of monetary policy, arguing that expectations for the Fed to lower federal government borrowing costs underscore the critical importance of central bank independence. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve must set monetary policy strictly in line with its inflation mandate, free from fiscal dominance considerations. The comments arrive at a moment when the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and Treasury market interventions is under intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike.

    Why This Matters

    The divergent but complementary signals from the Fed and Treasury reflect a delicate balancing act as policymakers navigate the final stretch of 2026. Goolsbee’s conditional dovishness—openness to cuts only if inflation data cooperates—signals that the Fed remains data-dependent despite the recent hike. Meanwhile, Bessent’s public backing of Chairman Warsh and the expansion of the Treasury’s buyback operation aim to anchor market confidence in both leadership continuity and plumbing liquidity. With PCE inflation still nearly double the target and AI-driven investment bolstering demand, the path to 2% remains contingent on supply-side normalization, making upcoming inflation prints and Fed communications pivotal for market pricing through year-end.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What conditions would prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts according to Goolsbee?

    Goolsbee stated the Fed would not oppose rate cuts if inflation slows significantly toward the 2% target, provided there are no signs of overheating demand and supply pressures continue to ease.

    What is the current level of U.S. PCE inflation and the Fed’s target?

    As of July, U.S. PCE inflation was at 3.7%, while the Federal Reserve’s target remains 2%.

    What actions has the Treasury taken to support market liquidity?

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an increase in the size of the Treasury’s bond repurchase program to address liquidity conditions in the government securities market.

  • Bitcoin Absorbs Fed Rate Hike as Officials Anticipate Further Tightening

    Bitcoin Absorbs Fed Rate Hike as Officials Anticipate Further Tightening

    Bitcoin maintained its position near pre-announcement levels around $76,000 on Wednesday, showing minimal immediate reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023.

    Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points

    The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase rates by 25 basis points, setting a new target range of 3.75% to 4%. This move, typically associated with pressure on stocks and risk assets, came as the central bank continues to address persistently high inflation.

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $76,663, representing a 1.35% gain over the previous 24 hours.

    Market Reaction Largely Anticipated

    Cooper Duschang, research analyst at Talos, noted in comments shared with Cointelegraph:

    “The initial reaction suggests the Fed’s decision was largely anticipated by crypto markets. Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient, holding broadly around pre-announcement levels even as equities moved lower.”

    Equities Decline While Bitcoin Holds

    U.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday following the rate decision. Crypto analysts caution that Bitcoin’s current resilience could face fresh tests if the Fed implements additional rate hikes before year-end.

    During the FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation remains too high while the U.S. economy shows signs of strengthening. Updated economic projections indicate a majority of officials anticipate at least one more rate increase before the end of the year.

    16 out of 18 FOMC participants expected another rate increase this year. Source: US Federal Reserve

    Andrew Melville, head of research at Block Scholes, characterized a potential additional increase as a “more hawkish surprise than today’s 25bp hike.”

    Derivatives and Spot Markets Show Divergence

    While Bitcoin’s spot price remained stable, Duschang highlighted significant activity beneath the surface:

    “Perpetual futures have shifted towards net selling, led by approximately $82 million in Bitcoin and $68 million in Ether over the past hour. In contrast, Bitcoin recorded around $15.5 million of net spot buying, suggesting spot demand is absorbing some of the selling pressure coming through derivatives.”

    Duschang also pointed to notable exchange flows, with approximately 2,170 Bitcoin moving onto exchanges following the rate announcement, followed by a withdrawal of 1,260 Bitcoin.

    “Rather than a uniform risk-off response, investors appear to be actively repositioning as they digest the Fed’s message. The key question now is whether Bitcoin’s resilience and spot demand hold as attention shifts from today’s widely anticipated hike to the prospect of further tightening.”

    Analysts Warn of Repricing Risk

    Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, warned that the Fed’s renewed “hawkish stance” of “higher for longer” rates would lead to risk-on assets “repricing this new reality.”

    Related: Bitcoin awaits Fed rate decision below $76K as analysis discounts ‘dovish surprise’ odds

    Magazine: HYPE price could suffer as Binance takes its revenue: Alice Liu

  • Goldman Pivots, Now Forecasts Fed Rate Hike in October

    Goldman Pivots, Now Forecasts Fed Rate Hike in October

    Goldman Sachs Revises Fed Rate Forecast, Now Expects October Hike

    Goldman Sachs has executed a significant reversal in its Federal Reserve policy outlook, now projecting that the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate once more in October. This new forecast marks a 180-degree pivot from the firm’s previous expectation of a September hike followed by an extended pause.

    Fed Signals Further Tightening After September Increase

    The shift follows the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision to lift rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. Perhaps more critically, the central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed that a strong majority of policymakers anticipate at least one additional rate increase before the end of the year.

    Warsh Strikes Hawkish Tone at Press Conference

    At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a notably hawkish stance. He stated that inflation remains “too high” and characterized the latest hike as having merely removed a “dose of accommodation”. The implication is clear: the current policy stance is still not restrictive enough, and further rate hikes remain in the pipeline.

    Markets Price In Elevated Probability of October Move

    Financial markets have quickly adjusted to the revised guidance. As of this writing, traders are pricing in just over a 50% probability of another 25 basis point hike at the Fed’s October meeting, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

    Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Macro Uncertainty

    Despite the shifting rate outlook, Bitcoin has shown resilience, continuing to trade near the $76,260 level. The cryptocurrency is up a marginal 0.5% over the past 24 hours, suggesting digital asset markets are currently digesting the hawkish pivot without significant volatility.

  • Fed Decision to Determine Gold’s Next Move: XAUUSD Risks $4,355 Rejection or Eyes $4,388 Breakout

    Fed Decision to Determine Gold’s Next Move: XAUUSD Risks $4,355 Rejection or Eyes $4,388 Breakout

    Fed Rate Decision Looms as Key Catalyst for Gold Price Direction

    The Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest rate decision stands as the pivotal event for gold markets this week, with traders closely monitoring XAUUSD for signs of a decisive breakout or rejection following the FOMC announcement. Gold has rebounded from the $4,300 level to trade between $4,335 and $4,345 as markets price in a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike.

    The central question for gold traders centers on whether Fed guidance, U.S. dollar movements, and Treasury yield reactions will push prices below the $4,355 resistance or provide sufficient momentum for a sustained break above $4,388.

    FOMC Meeting Schedule and Market Expectations

    The Federal Reserve’s September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting concludes with a policy announcement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 16. The release will be followed by the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the updated “dot plot,” and a press conference with Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 PM ET.

    Markets are assigning approximately a 92% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase, suggesting the immediate rate decision itself is unlikely to drive significant XAUUSD volatility. Instead, the gold price trajectory after the Fed decision will depend heavily on how the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields respond to the central bank’s forward guidance on the future policy path.

    Why Fed Guidance Drives Gold Price Action

    Gold’s price sensitivity to real interest rates and the U.S. dollar remains the fundamental driver. As a non-yielding asset, gold’s opportunity cost rises when real yields surge and the dollar strengthens. A hawkish surprise from the Fed could push yields higher and firm the dollar, pressuring XAUUSD lower. Conversely, a restrained or “one-and-done” policy message could ease yield and dollar pressures, supporting a relief rally in gold.

    At press time, spot gold was trading at $4,341.50, with traders awaiting either a rejection of the $4,355–$4,388 resistance zone or a move higher. The initial market reaction may involve a liquidity sweep near Monday’s $4,355 peak before a clearer directional move emerges. Key support levels to monitor if gold reverses include $4,304, $4,292, and $4,253.

    Dot Plot and Chair Warsh’s Commentary in Focus

    The updated dot plot will be scrutinized for any indication of a higher median rate path through 2026–2027. If projections signal continued tightening, or if Chair Warsh emphasizes persistent inflation risks and a readiness to hike further, Treasury yields could climb and the dollar could strengthen, creating headwinds for gold. More restrained forecasts, however, could alleviate yield and dollar pressures, allowing XAUUSD to stabilize or recover.

    Resistance Zone Analysis: $4,355–$4,388

    A Fed-driven strengthening of the U.S. dollar or rise in Treasury yields following the announcement could trigger a rejection of XAUUSD from the $4,355–$4,388 resistance zone. A price move above $4,355 that fails to hold above that level would constitute a liquidity sweep rather than a genuine breakout.

    Should rejection occur below $4,355, the resistance zone remains intact and exposes the aforementioned support levels at $4,304, $4,292, and $4,253. However, a sustained break above $4,388 would invalidate the rejection scenario and shift market attention toward the $4,443 target.

    Identifying a Liquidity Sweep vs. True Breakout

    A move above $4,355 signals a liquidity sweep rather than a legitimate gold breakout if XAUUSD quickly falls back below the level. In the event of a Fed-triggered reversal, traders should monitor $4,304, $4,292, and $4,253 as critical XAUUSD support levels.

    Conversely, sustained acceptance above $4,388 would confirm stronger upside momentum and shift the gold price forecast higher, with $4,443 becoming the next technical target. The $4,355 and $4,388 levels therefore represent the critical inflection points for gold prices following the Fed decision.

    Source: TradingView

  • FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Expected to Hike Rates 25 Bps – Will Bitcoin Drop Again?

    FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Expected to Hike Rates 25 Bps – Will Bitcoin Drop Again?

    Fed Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points

    Crypto markets are already under pressure ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with Bitcoin trading below $75,000. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, a move that is largely priced in. Traders are now focused on Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for clues on future rate hikes and whether another wave of selling could hit Bitcoin.

    The FOMC will announce its decision at 2:00 PM EDT, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM EDT. Markets are pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, which would move the federal funds rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This would be the Fed’s first rate hike in three years.

    🚨 REMINDER: 🇺🇸 FED INTEREST RATE DECISION TODAY AT 2:00 PM ET!
    Current: 3.50% – 3.75%
    Forecast: 3.75% – 4.00%
    HIKE → MARKETS DROP HARD
    HOLD → MARKETS RALLY
    CUT → MARKETS RALLY HARD
    PRESS CONFERENCE AT 2:30 PM ET!
    pic.twitter.com/Du0sWRoIBp
    — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) September 16, 2026

    However, traders are already looking beyond today’s decision. They are watching Warsh’s comments for signals about future rate hikes. The markets have shifted from expecting two hikes to pricing in at least three by June 2027. Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida warned that another hike could follow.

    “If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones. This is certainly not one and done.”

    CLARITY Act Failure Adds More Pressure

    The Fed’s decision comes as the crypto market deals with another setback. On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, weakening a major regulatory catalyst for the market. Even after a last-minute substitute text included 126 bipartisan changes, lawmakers could not overcome major political and ideological differences. Prediction markets now put the bill’s 2026 passage odds at around 12%.

    Following the setback, the total crypto market fell more than 3%, while Bitcoin dropped below $75,000. The decline also triggered around $770 million in liquidations, adding more selling pressure from leveraged long positions.

    Bitcoin Could Face More Selling If Warsh Sounds Hawkish

    The biggest risk for crypto may not be the 25-basis-point increase itself, because traders have already priced it in. Instead, Bitcoin could face more selling if Warsh signals that more hikes are coming or the Fed’s updated projections point to tighter policy for longer. Such a signal could strengthen the dollar, lift bond yields, and push investors away from riskier assets. Bitcoin has already fallen below $76,000, now trading around $75,860.

  • Wall Street Bets on Fed Rate Hike: What It Means for Bitcoin, Bonds, and Trump

    Wall Street Bets on Fed Rate Hike: What It Means for Bitcoin, Bonds, and Trump

    Federal Reserve Poised for First Rate Hike Since 2023 Amid Inflation Pressure

    Wall Street is bracing for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday, a move that would mark the first increase since 2023. The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting this week, and CME’s FedWatch tool places the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at 94.5%, up from under 50% just a month ago. Such a move would lift the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4% from the current 3.50%–3.75%.

    Wall Street Consensus Shifts Rapidly Toward Tightening

    The shift from unlikely to near-universal expectation happened quickly. A Wall Street Journal survey published this week found nearly every major bank now anticipates a hike on Wednesday. Most institutions—including Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS—forecast 50 basis points of total tightening by year-end. Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC are more hawkish, calling for 75 basis points of tightening in 2026. Goldman Sachs sits at the dovish end of the hiking camp, penciling in only this week’s quarter-point increase. Jefferies and Oxford Economics remain outliers, forecasting a rate cut in December and in 2027, respectively.

    Higher rates increase borrowing costs, dampen spending, and pressure assets that thrive on cheap capital, such as equities and Bitcoin. They also boost yields on safe government bonds, drawing capital away from riskier investments. However, market anxiety stems less from the hike itself than from uncertainty about the trajectory of future moves. Markets are repricing now, ahead of the Fed’s communication, to account for that ambiguity.

    Inflation and Labor Data Drive the Decision

    The case for tightening rests on persistent inflation. Headline CPI ran at 3.4% annually in August, with core inflation at 2.5%—both comfortably above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil prices, elevated by the ongoing conflict with Iran, have added a layer of price pressure that neither tariffs nor rate cuts can easily offset.

    The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in July, but that decision passed by a narrow 9–3 vote, with three policymakers already advocating for a hike at the time. That internal split, combined with a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, tilted the committee toward tightening heading into this week’s meeting.

    Political Tension Mounts as Trump Pressures Fed Chair

    The impending hike places Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a difficult position. President Donald Trump handpicked Warsh for the role in January and, at his swearing-in ceremony in May, urged him to be “totally independent” while making clear he expected lower rates. That expectation has not materialized—at least not in the way Trump likely meant by “totally independent.”

    In the past two weeks, Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have all publicly pushed for rate cuts. Trump went as far as threatening to halt trade with countries running surpluses with the U.S. if rates do not come down. Warsh has stated the president has had no influence on Fed decisions.

    The rate decision lands two months before the November midterms, where polls already show voters frustrated with high prices and borrowing costs. The tightening cycle arrives in part because of the tariff and Iran-conflict policies Trump himself has championed.

    Bond Markets Price In Higher-for-Longer Rates

    Bond markets have not waited for Wednesday’s announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04% this week, its highest level since July 2007, as traders priced in both the hike and a prolonged period of elevated rates. The two-year yield, more sensitive to Fed policy, hit its highest level since July 2024. Higher yields make Treasurys more attractive relative to risk assets and tend to strengthen the dollar—a headwind for assets like cryptocurrency that benefit from abundant liquidity.

    Bitcoin and Altcoins Enter Decision Week Under Pressure

    Crypto markets approach the Fed decision already weakened. On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded around $75,700, down roughly 3.2% on the day after the Clarity Act—crypto’s long-awaited market structure legislation—failed a Senate cloture vote. Bitcoin remains well below its September peak near $82,000.

    Technical analysts highlight $73,200 as a critical level: a daily close below it could open the door to $71,000 and even $66,900, negating the bullish structure that recently triggered a golden cross pattern.

    Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingView

    Not all analysts view a hike as purely bearish. Some argue a quarter-point move aimed primarily at anchoring long-term Treasury yields—rather than genuinely tightening financial conditions—could leave crypto’s medium-term outlook largely intact. In this view, the market’s reaction hinges on whether the decision and Warsh’s tone during the press conference surprise relative to what is already priced in.

    Higher-beta altcoins are expected to experience sharper percentage swings than Bitcoin in either direction, given thinner liquidity and heavier leverage.

    Key Events to Watch Wednesday

    The Fed’s policy statement and updated dot plot are due at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Traders will scrutinize whether officials still pencil in just one more hike this year or something closer to the two additional moves Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC now project.

  • Bitcoin Price Surges Despite Hot US Inflation Data

    Bitcoin Price Surges Despite Hot US Inflation Data

    Bitcoin Price Spikes, Shrugs Off Hot US Inflation Data

    Bitcoin’s price rose on Friday despite data revealing that U.S. inflation had accelerated, defying typical market expectations that higher inflation would pressure risk assets.

    Bitcoin Trades Near $79,000 Amid Inflation Surprise

    The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently trading close to $78,749 after jumping 2% over a 24-hour period. At one point on Friday morning in New York, bitcoin rose as high as $79,607.

    The price spike came after the release of August consumer price index data showing U.S. consumer prices accelerated, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

    Core Inflation Exceeds Forecasts

    The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier, which was higher than expected. Inflation in the U.S. has been difficult to tame due to the war with Iran, which has lifted oil prices, in turn raising the costs of food, gasoline, and other goods.

    Higher inflation typically means the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which in turn could stop bitcoin’s price climbing higher. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders think there is an 85% chance interest rates will be higher by next week.

    Fed Policy Outlook and Bitcoin’s Rate Sensitivity

    Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment because it means people can buy more of the cryptocurrency with increased liquidity. The Federal Reserve will meet next week and reveal what it will do with borrowing costs.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who took the helm in January, last month gave his first speech as head of the U.S. central bank and said he had more work to do to fight inflation.

    Political Context: Affordability Crisis and Midterm Elections

    The U.S. is currently in the grips of an affordability crisis and rising oil prices are a hot topic ahead of the midterm elections. U.S. President Donald Trump has reassured voters that prices will get under control and repeatedly put pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.

    Recent Catalysts: Regulatory Clarity and Treasury Policy

    Bitcoin in August had its biggest run in years following positive regulatory news and an announcement from the U.S. Treasury. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, helping non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold. The cryptocurrency then benefited from President Trump urging lawmakers to get key crypto legislation, the Clarity Act, over the line.

    This post first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.

  • PPI Data Shows Wholesale Prices Rose as Expected

    PPI Data Shows Wholesale Prices Rose as Expected

    Wholesale Inflation Rises as Expected in August, Producer Prices Climb 0.4%

    U.S. wholesale inflation advanced largely in line with forecasts in August, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report arrives days before the closely watched Consumer Price Index release and as traders weigh the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

    Monthly Producer Price Gains Accelerate

    The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.4% in August from the previous month, matching economists’ consensus estimates. The reading marks a notable pickup from July’s revised gain of 0.1%.

    The “core” reading — which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs — showed producer prices advanced by 0.2% over the previous month. That came in slightly below the 0.3% growth economists had predicted and below July’s revised gain of 0.3%.

    Year-Over-Year Inflation Remains Elevated

    On an annual basis, headline producer prices rose 5.4% in August, slightly above the 5.3% estimate and accelerating from the previous month’s revised 4.8% print. Core inflation came in at 4.6%, in line with estimates but above July’s 4.2% increase.

    CPI Report Next in Focus for Fed Clues

    Today’s wholesale inflation data precedes the monthly Consumer Price Index report due Friday. Market participants will scrutinize the CPI for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

    Economists expect the upcoming CPI data to show that headline consumer prices ticked up month over month but remained flat from a year ago at 3.4%. The “core” CPI — the more closely watched metric — is projected to tick down slightly on a yearly basis to 2.4%.

    Rate-Hike Bets Firm After Hawkish Jackson Hole Remarks

    Following Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech last month at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he took a more hawkish stance than expected, market positioning has shifted further toward a 25 basis point rate hike by year-end.

    Traders are currently pricing in roughly a 64% chance of a hike at the September meeting next week, while bets for at least one increase by the Fed’s December meeting sit at approximately 90%.

    Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering U.S. equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.

  • Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Down Today?

    Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Down Today?

    Bitcoin (BTC) fell about 0.7% over the 24 hours to around $77,800 on Aug. 31, extending its retreat after another failed attempt to hold above the $80,000 level.

    The decline followed a shift in global market expectations after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Warsh said inflation remained too high and indicated that further tightening could be necessary to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.

    The implied probability of a September rate increase climbed to approximately 57% on Monday, while the two-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in more than a month. Barclays also revised its forecast after the speech and now expects two 25-basis-point rate increases, in September and December. The bank had previously expected interest rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026.

    Bitcoin pressured by higher yields and geopolitical tensions

    Higher yields weighed on other risk assets. Asian equities fell on Monday, while US and European stock futures traded lower as markets adjusted to the prospect of tighter monetary policy.

    Renewed conflict between the US and Iran added to selling pressure over the weekend. US forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, followed by retaliatory Iranian attacks against US forces in Jordan.

    Brent crude subsequently rose about 3.3% to $91.01 per barrel. The increase in oil prices added to inflation concerns as markets were already pricing in a higher probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase.

    Bitcoin entered the latest period of macroeconomic pressure after its strong August recovery stalled around $80,000. BTC gained roughly 23% over the past month and briefly traded above $81,000 last week, but repeated attempts to establish support in the $80,000-$82,000 region failed.

    Selling accelerated early on Aug. 31 after Bitcoin reached about $79,300 late on Saturday before falling below $78,000. The cryptocurrency briefly dropped toward $77,300, then surged toward $78,600 before giving up those gains.

    Leveraged positions contributed to the speed of the decline. Bitcoin futures open interest stood near $54.8 billion on Aug. 30, while roughly $390 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the previous 24 hours. Long positions accounted for about 70% of the losses.

    Institutional demand also weakened before the weekend. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $201.8 million in net outflows on Aug. 28 after receiving $314.4 million on Aug. 25, $232.1 million on Aug. 26 and $242.2 million on Aug. 27, according to SoSoValue data.

    Despite Friday’s reversal, the funds remained at approximately $3.3 billion in net inflows for August.

    Bitcoin price analysis

    Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the price holding well above all four major exponential moving averages despite its retreat from $80,000.

    On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin was trading near $77,800, below its 20-period EMA at $78,207, 50-period EMA at $78,288 and 100-period EMA at $77,399. The price remained above the 200-period EMA at $74,572.

    Bitcoin technical analysis

    The setup indicates that short-term momentum has weakened, with Bitcoin trading below its 20- and 50-period moving averages. However, the price remains above the 100- and 200-period EMAs, leaving the broader recovery structure intact for now.

    A sustained break below the $77,400 area could expose Bitcoin to further downside toward the 200-period EMA near $74,600. On the upside, a move back above the $78,200-$78,300 zone would bring the recent highs near $79,000-$80,000 into focus.

    The Stochastic RSI has also retreated from overbought territory. The faster line stands at 43.71, below the slower line at 46.56, indicating that near-term buying momentum has eased.

    A renewed move above $78,300 could signal improving momentum, while a deeper decline in the Stochastic RSI would reinforce the risk of further consolidation or a pullback. The bearish crossover shows that upside momentum has weakened while Bitcoin remains below $80,000.

    The Directional Movement Index (DMI) is not currently indicating a clear bearish trend. The positive directional indicator stands at 19.02, above the negative directional indicator at 15.40, while ADX is at 24.44.

    These readings suggest that buyers retain a slight directional advantage, although the relatively narrow gap between the two directional indicators points to limited conviction.

    Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the $78,200-$78,300 area keeps that zone as immediate resistance. A sustained move above it could open the way toward $79,000 and the $80,000 psychological level.

    On the downside, the 100-period EMA around $77,400 is an important near-term support level. A break below it could expose the $76,000-$77,000 region, with the 200-period EMA near $74,600 providing deeper support.

    The Williams %R reading is around -66.11, indicating that Bitcoin has moved back toward the lower portion of its recent trading range but is not yet in oversold territory. The indicator would need to fall below -80 to signal more pronounced oversold conditions.

    A recovery in Williams %R alongside a move back above the $78,200-$78,300 EMA cluster would indicate improving short-term momentum. Conversely, a move below -80 combined with a break under the $77,400 support could increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $76,000 and potentially the 200-period EMA.

  • Renowned Economist Harshly Criticizes the Fed’s Latest Policies: “They’re on the Wrong Track”

    Renowned Economist Harshly Criticizes the Fed’s Latest Policies: “They’re on the Wrong Track”

    Economist James E. Thorne has criticized the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy, arguing that higher interest rates may not address the underlying causes of current inflationary pressures.

    Thorne said Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and Wall Street circles appear to view supply-driven inflation as a conventional overheating problem caused by excessive demand. However, he argued that elevated inflation is not solely the result of strong consumer spending. Energy costs, housing shortages, production cuts, and other supply constraints are also contributing to price pressures.

    He warned that additional rate increases could weaken the economy’s productive capacity rather than reduce inflation.

    Employment Data Challenges the “Overheating” Thesis

    Thorne pointed to declining quarterly full-time employment data as evidence that the economy may be undergoing a structural transformation rather than experiencing a temporary, one-month statistical anomaly. He said the fact that a significant share of the decline came from public-sector employment did not reduce its importance.

    In Thorne’s view, the data suggests that the economy is not necessarily overheating. Instead, the labor market may be adjusting to changes in fiscal policy, industrial structure, and institutional conditions.

    He said the housing market was sending a similar signal. As one of the sectors most sensitive to interest rates, housing is directly feeling the effects of tight monetary policy, Thorne argued, rather than driving inflation.

    Thorne also said recent US economic growth could be attributed less to broad, credit-fueled overheating and more to the early effects of the Trump administration’s supply-side economic policies, along with a long-term investment cycle.

    He highlighted rising investment in artificial intelligence, data centers and computing capacity, electricity generation, and infrastructure. These investments, he said, could expand the economy’s production capacity and improve efficiency.

    According to Thorne, further Federal Reserve rate increases could make it harder to finance productive investment, ultimately limiting the expansion of future supply capacity while doing little to resolve supply-related inflation.

    “Customs Duties Are Not the Same Thing as Persistent Inflation”

    Thorne further argued that, under classical economic theory, the effects of genuine supply shocks should diminish over time as prices and production adjust.

    He noted that an oil-price shock does not necessarily require permanently high interest rates. Tariffs can also produce a one-time increase in the price level, he said, but that is different from a self-reinforcing and continuous inflationary process.

    Thorne also said there is no strong evidence that the neutral real interest rate, a measure considered important for economic stability, or “r*” has increased by approximately 100 basis points over a short period.

    For the Federal Reserve, he said, the central question is whether further monetary tightening is appropriate while full-time employment is declining and the housing sector remains under pressure.

    Thorne concluded that, under current conditions, new rate increases could represent less of “prudent inflation control” and more of a deliberate suppression of demand caused by supply constraints and the mistaken belief that an economy undergoing structural change is overheating.

    This is not investment advice.