Daily News 19

Tag: CLARITY Act

  • XRP Price Prediction 2029: Where Could XRP Be in 3 Years?

    XRP Price Prediction 2029: Where Could XRP Be in 3 Years?

    XRP Price Prediction 2029: Three Scenarios Shaped by Regulation, Bitcoin Halving, and Quantum Resistance

    XRP closed September 2023 at $0.51 and trades near $1.39 today, representing a 2.7x gain over roughly three years. The prior three-year window, from September 2020 to September 2023, delivered a 2.1x return as XRP climbed from $0.24 to $0.51. Despite these successive rallies, the token has never reclaimed its all-time high of $3.84 set in January 2018. As of mid-2025, XRP approached that peak, touching $3.65 in July before closing the month at $3.02—still 64% below the record.

    With a presidential election, the CLARITY Act legislation, and the April 2028 Bitcoin halving all fixed on the calendar, the next three-year window to September 2029 is largely pre-scheduled. Analysts outline three distinct outcomes depending on which catalysts materialize.

    Historical Context: Two Rallies, No New High

    Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that XRP sold on secondary markets is not a security. XRP closed September 2023 at $0.51, three months after that decision. The SEC lawsuit, filed in December 2020, had overhung the token for most of the earlier window. Notably, neither the 2.1x nor the 2.7x rally was driven by payment volume or on-chain utility that consumes XRP. Eight years after the 2018 peak, no significant XRP-burning use case has emerged.

    Scenario 1: XRP Stays Below $2 if CLARITY Act Fails

    The bear case assumes the CLARITY Act—which would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC—fails permanently. It also requires the Federal Reserve to hold rates at 3.75% (the level since December 2025) and the 10-year Treasury yield to remain near 4.95%. At those yields, capital prefers government bonds over crypto.

    Under this regime, spot ETFs stall at roughly 2% of circulating supply. Ripple continues releasing up to one billion XRP monthly from escrow, relocking most but leaving 200–400 million tokens hitting the market each month without sufficient institutional demand to absorb them. XRP would drift between $0.80 and $2.00, roughly the range it has occupied for much of the past five years. The token already tested $1.11 on February 5, 2026, its lowest level in 15 months. A drop to $0.80 would represent a further 42% decline from current prices, leaving buyers at $1.39 with dead money rather than a loss by 2029.

    Scenario 2: XRP Reaches $4–$7 if CLARITY Passes and a Bull Cycle Arrives

    The base case requires two conditions: the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 or 2027, and a broad crypto bull cycle—likely triggered by the April 2028 Bitcoin halving and subsequent rate cuts—unfolds before 2029. Historical precedent shows a broad bull market has followed each of the three prior halvings within 12–18 months as capital rotates from Bitcoin into other assets.

    Additional requirements include ETF holdings doubling to 4–5% of supply and the launch of XRPL lending with enough collateral to generate fee revenue, finally giving the network utility beyond payments. With those pieces in place, XRP clears $3.84 and sets a new record between $4 and $7—a 2.9x to 5.0x move from $1.39, compared with the 2.7x achieved from 2023 to 2026.

    However, $7 implies a market capitalization near $440 billion, five times today’s $87.4 billion. Circulating supply has grown from roughly 34 billion at the 2018 peak to 62.87 billion, meaning the same price must now support nearly twice as many tokens.

    Scenario 3: XRP at $10–$20 Requires Institutional Collateral Demand

    The bull case builds on the base scenario but adds a critical new variable: banks and funds must begin using XRP as on-chain collateral at scale. That demand cannot materialize until XRPL lending goes live, creating a market for it. Ripple’s dollar-backed stablecoin, RLUSD, would also need to carry the bulk of value moving across the ledger, and Bitcoin would need a fresh cycle pushing it above $150,000.

    Standard Chartered’s published ladder places $19.60 at the top of this band for 2029, a target the bank has maintained even as XRP fell 62% from its cycle high.

    Quantum Resistance: A Decisive Differentiator

    All three forecasts assume banks still trust the XRP Ledger to settle funds in 2029. Ripple targets 2028 for an XRPL amendment implementing quantum-resistant signatures, which would prevent a sufficiently powerful quantum computer from forging transactions. The urgency increased in September 2026 when the estimated cost to crack Bitcoin’s encryption halved, pulling the quantum threat forward for every chain, including XRP.

    If Ethereum or Bitcoin deploys quantum resistance on mainnet first, XRP’s pitch as the settlement layer for regulated finance weakens. If Ripple delivers first, every scenario above strengthens.

    $3.84 Is the Pivot Level Separating the Outcomes

    The $4–$7 base case is the most actionable framework. It requires the CLARITY Act enacted, one bull cycle within the window, and XRP reclaiming $3.84 before any upside counts. A floor vote on the CLARITY Act provides the fastest signal on the bill’s viability. Passage in 2027 opens the ladder above $3.84; stagnation likely condemns XRP to another three years in the $0.80–$2.00 range, pushing a $4 target to 2032 or beyond.

  • Banking Groups, New York Lawyers Oppose CLARITY Act Ahead of Sept. 15 Senate Vote

    Banking Groups, New York Lawyers Oppose CLARITY Act Ahead of Sept. 15 Senate Vote

    Banking Groups and State Attorneys General Challenge CLARITY Act Ahead of Senate Vote

    Major banking associations and a coalition of state attorneys general are mounting opposition to the CLARITY Act as the Senate prepares for a crucial vote scheduled for September 15. The legislation, which aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, faces mounting pressure from two distinct fronts, each raising separate concerns about the bill’s implications for financial stability and state enforcement authority.

    Banking Industry Raises Concerns Over Stablecoin Rewards and Deposits

    Banking trade groups argue that the current draft of the CLARITY Act creates an uneven playing field by permitting stablecoin issuers to offer yield-bearing products that function similarly to bank deposits but without equivalent regulatory safeguards. Industry representatives contend that allowing stablecoin rewards to compete directly with traditional interest-bearing accounts could destabilize deposit funding models, particularly for community and regional banks that rely on stable core deposits for lending operations.

    The groups emphasize that stablecoin issuers operating under the proposed framework would not be subject to the same capital requirements, deposit insurance premiums, or examination regimes that apply to insured depository institutions. This regulatory disparity, they warn, could accelerate deposit outflows from the banking system into less-regulated digital assets, potentially undermining monetary policy transmission and financial intermediation.

    State Attorneys General Defend Enforcement Authority

    In a parallel challenge, a bipartisan group of state attorneys general has objected to provisions that would preempt state enforcement powers over stablecoin activities. The coalition argues that the CLARITY Act’s federal preemption clauses would strip states of their ability to investigate and prosecute fraud, consumer protection violations, and anti-money laundering failures involving stablecoin issuers and wallet providers operating within their jurisdictions.

    State enforcement officials maintain that their on-the-ground oversight has been critical in addressing crypto-related scams, unlicensed money transmission, and deceptive marketing practices. They contend that a purely federal regulatory model, without preserved state concurrent enforcement authority, would create enforcement gaps and leave consumers with fewer avenues for redress when harmed by bad actors in the stablecoin ecosystem.

    Legislative Timeline and Stakes

    The Senate Banking Committee is expected to bring the measure to the floor during the week of September 15, setting up a high-stakes debate over the balance between federal regulatory certainty and state-level consumer protections. Proponents of the CLARITY Act argue that a unified federal framework is essential for providing legal clarity, fostering responsible innovation, and maintaining U.S. competitiveness in digital asset markets.

    Opponents counter that the bill, as currently structured, sacrifices critical safeguards in favor of industry-friendly provisions. With both banking lobbyists and state law enforcement officials actively engaging congressional offices, the outcome of the September vote remains uncertain. Any passed legislation would still require reconciliation with House counterparts before reaching the president’s desk.

    Market Implications

    Financial markets are closely monitoring the legislative proceedings, as the CLARITY Act represents the most significant federal attempt to date to regulate payment stablecoins. The bill’s treatment of reserve requirements, issuance standards, and the permissible activities of nonbank stablecoin issuers could reshape the competitive landscape for digital payments and dollar-denominated tokenized assets globally.

    Stablecoin market participants, including major issuers and blockchain infrastructure providers, have lobbied for clear federal rules that would enable broader institutional adoption. Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions seek either equal regulatory treatment or explicit barriers preventing stablecoins from replicating deposit-like functions without banking charters.

  • Critical Week for Altcoins: Analyst Assesses Ethereum (ETH), XRP, SUI Outlook

    Critical Week for Altcoins: Analyst Assesses Ethereum (ETH), XRP, SUI Outlook

    A pivotal week is unfolding for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with a convergence of major financial events and key technical setups drawing intense trader focus. The calendar kicks off on September 15 with the highly anticipated Clarity Act vote, followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has issued updated technical analyses for Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Sui (SUI), highlighting specific price levels and chart patterns that could dictate near-term market direction.

    Ethereum Eyes $3,000 on Ascending Triangle Breakout

    Martinez has identified a developing ascending triangle formation on the Ethereum 12-hour chart. According to his analysis, a decisive break above the pattern’s upper resistance zone could trigger a significant upward leg. The analyst draws a historical parallel, noting that ETH previously surged approximately 31 percent in just three days following a breakout from a similar structure. Should history rhyme, Martinez projects a measured move targeting the psychological $3,000 resistance level.

    SUI Flashes Potential Reversal Signal at Key Support

    For Sui, the TD Sequential indicator on the 12-hour timeframe has presented a new signal, which the analyst suggests could indicate a possible trend reversal. This signal materialized after SUI pulled back to the critical $0.70–$0.72 support zone. However, Martinez cautions that this single indicator does not, by itself, confirm the establishment of a new uptrend, urging traders to seek additional confirmation before committing capital.

    XRP Consolidates Ahead of Potential Triangle Apex Breakout

    Martinez also highlighted a significant technical formation for XRP. In a recent post, he outlined a scenario where the asset holds above the $1.31–$1.35 support zone. If this floor remains intact, the price action could compress toward the apex of the prevailing triangle formation. The analyst identifies $1.38 as the crucial resistance level to watch. A strong breakout above this threshold would strengthen the bullish case, potentially clearing a path for a rally toward the $1.60 region. Martinez notes that while he expects price to migrate toward the triangle’s peak if support holds, no specific ultimate price target was provided in the analysis.

    Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

  • Lighter Surges 11% as Whale Buys $2M LIT: Is $5 Still on the Cards?

    Lighter Surges 11% as Whale Buys $2M LIT: Is $5 Still on the Cards?

    Lighter ($LIT) Stages Trend Reversal, Surging 11% on Volume Spike and CLARITY Act Optimism

    Lighter ($LIT) appears to have found a local bottom after five consecutive days of declines, touching a low of $4.00 before mounting a sharp recovery. The altcoin surged 11% to a local high of $4.68 before settling near $4.55 at the time of writing, signaling a potential trend reversal.

    Volume Surge Confirms Buying Pressure

    The upside move was underpinned by a 52% spike in trading volume, which climbed to $75 million. Turnover also jumped significantly, rising by over $9 million to reach $37 million, according to data from Coinank. The simultaneous rise in volume and turnover points to strong buying pressure rather than short-covering alone.

    CLARITY Act Developments Fuel Renewed Demand

    Market sentiment received a boost from growing social chatter surrounding the CLARITY Act. Analyst Andy highlighted that Lighter stands to benefit from recent legislative developments, noting that Vlad’s presence on the CFTC innovation advisory committee positions the protocol favorably as clearer digital asset rules take shape. The market interprets this regulatory involvement as a strategic advantage for Lighter.

    Whales and Retail Traders Return Aggressively

    On-chain data reveals participation from both large holders and retail speculators. Arkham Intelligence shows a whale address withdrawing 500,000 $LIT—worth approximately $2.07 million—from the Lighter protocol during the rally. The accumulation amid rising prices suggests confidence in further upside.

    Derivatives activity corroborates the bullish tilt. Open Interest surged 13% to $512 million, while derivatives volume exploded 127%, per CoinGlass. The sharp rise in Open Interest alongside heavy volume indicates aggressive new position opening. The Long/Short Ratio on Binance reached 2.8, signaling that the majority of these new positions are long-biased.

    Technical Indicators Flash Early Bullish Signals

    On the technical front, $LIT has reclaimed both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages, reflecting renewed short-term bullish momentum. The Stochastic RSI formed a bullish crossover and climbed to 9, suggesting buyers are beginning to outpace sellers.

    However, the Stochastic RSI reading of 9 also serves as a caution: buyers have not yet fully seized control. The upward trajectory does indicate shifting power dynamics, but confirmation is needed.

    Key Level to Watch: $4.40 Close Above Short-Term MA

    For the uptrend to sustain and target a reclaim of $5.00, $LIT must secure a daily close above its short-term moving average near $4.40. A failure to hold this level could see the reversal stall and price drift back toward recent lows.

    Summary

    • Price Action: $LIT reversed a five-day downtrend, rallying 11% to $4.68 before retracing to ~$4.55.
    • Volume: Spot volume jumped 52% to $75M; turnover rose $9M+ to $37M (Coinank).
    • Catalyst: CLARITY Act progress and Vlad’s CFTC advisory role viewed as regulatory tailwinds.
    • Whale Activity: 500,000 $LIT ($2.07M) withdrawn from protocol amid rally (Arkham).
    • Derivatives: Open Interest +13% to $512M; derivatives volume +127%; Binance Long/Short Ratio 2.8 (CoinGlass).
    • Technicals: Price above 9/21-day MAs; Stochastic RSI bullish crossover at 9 (TradingView).
    • Invalidation: Daily close below ~$4.40 short-term MA.
  • Final CLARITY Act Draft Ends Ripple Supply Debate, Attorney Says

    Final CLARITY Act Draft Ends Ripple Supply Debate, Attorney Says

    Attorney Bill Morgan stated that the newly released final text of the CLARITY Act resolves a long-standing debate in the cryptocurrency sector. He asserted that XRP will be classified as a commodity in secondary markets irrespective of the volume of supply Ripple continues to hold.

    “Deal with it Bitcoin maxis,”

    Morgan wrote, referencing critics who have long argued that Ripple’s substantial XRP holdings should disqualify the token from commodity status.

    What the Final Draft Actually Does

    Senate Republicans released the finalized 635-page CLARITY Act text Sunday night ahead of Tuesday’s cloture vote, describing it as their “last, best and final” offer to Democrats. The draft reflects 126 changes requested by Democrats during negotiations.

    Ethics Provisions and Divestiture Requirements

    The most significant update centers on ethics provisions backed by President Trump. Federal officials covered under the bill would be required to either divest significant digital asset holdings or place them into a qualified blind trust.

    State attorneys general would gain authority to enforce bans on officials issuing, sponsoring, or holding major stakes in digital assets. Exchanges would be barred from listing any digital asset issued in violation of those rules. Penalties for violations would run 20% of the transaction value or $500,000, whichever is greater, with the rules taking effect within 360 days of enactment.

    Stablecoin Oversight and Circuit Breaker Mechanism

    Other changes include a new “circuit breaker” mechanism giving federal regulators, specifically the Treasury, authority to intervene on stablecoin yield if community banks experience significant deposit flight into stablecoins.

    Narrowed Protections and Conflict-of-Interest Rules

    The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act’s protections were narrowed to cover only the Bank Secrecy Act and civil enforcement, removing language that previously extended protections to certain criminal cases.

    The bill also adds tighter restrictions on conflicts of interest and affiliate trading involving digital commodity exchanges, brokers, and dealers. It clarifies that state consumer protection laws remain fully applicable and that developer protections do not exempt anyone from derivatives law or affect prediction markets.

  • CLARITY Act Seeks Emergency Meeting With Senate Democrats Today Before Sept. 15 Vote

    CLARITY Act Seeks Emergency Meeting With Senate Democrats Today Before Sept. 15 Vote

    Senate Democrats are scheduled to convene on Sunday as pressure mounts ahead of a critical vote on the CLARITY Act. According to individuals familiar with the discussions, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer initiated the caucus meeting to align members on strategy.

    Democrats Navigate Internal Divisions on CLARITY Act

    The gathering comes at a pivotal moment for the legislation, which has sparked debate within the Democratic ranks over its regulatory framework for digital assets. Lawmakers are weighing concerns from constituent groups, industry stakeholders, and progressive advocates who argue the bill lacks sufficient consumer protections.

    Schumer’s decision to call the meeting signals the leadership’s urgency to secure a unified position before the measure reaches the floor. The closed-door session will allow senators to address amendments, procedural tactics, and the political ramifications of supporting or opposing the act in an election year.

    While the exact agenda remains confidential, sources indicate the discussion will focus on bridging differences between members who view the legislation as a necessary step toward market clarity and those demanding stronger safeguards against fraud and market manipulation.

  • Senate Democrats Hold Last-Minute Meeting Ahead of Crucial Crypto Vote

    Senate Democrats Hold Last-Minute Meeting Ahead of Crucial Crypto Vote

    Senate Democrats Convene Emergency Caucus on Crypto Clarity Act Ahead of Critical Tuesday Vote

    Senate Democrats are holding a last-minute caucus meeting Sunday evening to discuss the Clarity Act, a landmark cryptocurrency market structure bill, ahead of a crucial procedural vote scheduled for Tuesday. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer convened the session as lawmakers continue working to resolve several major disagreements surrounding the legislation, according to Politico.

    Procedural Vote Will Determine Bill’s Path Forward

    The Tuesday vote is expected to determine whether the legislation can advance to broader Senate consideration. The outcome remains uncertain as a group of roughly a dozen Democratic senators has spent months negotiating over the bill, but several major issues remain unresolved.

    Among the lawmakers involved in the discussions are Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Mark Warner, Ruben Gallego, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Andy Kim, and Angela Alsobrooks, according to crypto commentator Chad Steingraber.

    60-Vote Threshold Requires Bipartisan Support

    The legislation will need 60 votes to advance. Assuming all voting Republicans back the measure, at least several Democratic senators would also have to support the procedural motion. Democrats are pushing for stricter conflict-of-interest restrictions, which remain the key obstacle so far.

    The Senate Banking Committee previously advanced the legislation in May in a bipartisan 15-9 vote. A fresh version of the roughly 630-page bill was unveiled on Thursday.

    Weekend Negotiations Continue as Deadline Looms

    Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said earlier on Sunday that negotiations were continuing over the weekend. Tuesday’s procedural vote would make it possible for the legislation to move toward full Senate consideration.

    As reported by U.Today, Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that failure to advance the legislation could delay comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure legislation for years.

  • Trump Meets Advisers on CLARITY Act Ahead of Tuesday Vote

    Trump Meets Advisers on CLARITY Act Ahead of Tuesday Vote

    President Donald Trump convened advisers on Friday, September 11, to negotiate the ethics language holding up the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, four days before a pivotal Senate cloture vote that requires 60 votes to advance the legislation. Politico first reported the closed-door session, citing two people familiar with the talks. Neither the White House nor the negotiators disclosed the outcome. By Sunday, no revised text had circulated. Trump’s crypto policy adviser, Patrick Witt, struck an upbeat tone the following day, writing that it was a “Bad day to be a Clarity Act doomer.” He did not specify what had changed. With the Senate returning Monday, lawmakers have one working day before taking a public position on Tuesday.

    One paragraph of ethics text stalls a 630-page bill

    Lawmakers resolved most of the CLARITY Act months ago. The sole remaining obstacle is a conflict-of-interest provision targeting officials who profit from digital assets—a clause that describes the sitting president with uncomfortable precision. Trump previously accepted a version brokered by Senator Cynthia Lummis, but Senate Democrats and at least one Republican, Thom Tillis, deemed it too weak to secure their votes. Tillis has warned the bill collapses without a White House agreement. The current draft bars officials and their spouses from issuing tokens, yet permits them to hold crypto personally, exempts their children, and sunsets in 2029.

    Trump family collects 75% of $WLFI sale proceeds

    The Trump family launched World Liberty Financial in September 2024, with Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Barron Trump serving as its web3 ambassadors. The venture operates a governance token, $WLFI, and a dollar-pegged stablecoin, USD1, backed by Treasuries and custodied by BitGo. Under the project’s own disclosures, an entity tied to Trump and family members receives 75% of $WLFI sale proceeds after reserves, and the family holds billions of tokens directly. Trump reported more than $1 billion in crypto income for 2025, including roughly $515 million from $WLFI sales. Senator Elizabeth Warren said the draft does nothing to stop him from “vacuuming up his next $1.4 billion in crypto profits.”

    The token has punished outside buyers, trading below $0.06 while early investors remain locked out of most of their holdings. In August, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted a World Liberty affiliate preliminary approval to pursue a national trust bank charter, which would tie the family’s finances to a federally regulated bank for the first time.

    CLARITY Act splits crypto oversight between SEC and CFTC

    Stripping away the politics, the bill draws the regulatory line the two agencies have contested for a decade. A maturity test determines which regulator governs a token: the network must be fully operational, no single entity may control more than 20% of supply or voting power, and founders cannot hold unilateral upgrade authority. Tokens clearing that threshold move from securities law to commodities law, sharply altering their compliance burden.

    How the maturity test works

    • Network status: Fully operational
    • Control threshold: No single holder controls more than 20% of supply or votes
    • Founder authority: No unilateral upgrade power

    Payment stablecoins fall into a shared SEC-CFTC category, with core rules already established by the GENIUS Act.

    Cloture requires 60 votes; Republicans hold 53

    Tuesday’s vote is a procedural cloture motion to begin debate, not final passage. The arithmetic remains unforgiving. Republicans need at least seven Democrats to cross over, and the likeliest Democratic supporters tied their backing to stronger ethics language that never materialized during the recess. The House demonstrated this coalition can hold when the ethics fight subsides, passing the bill 294–134 in July 2025 with 78 Democrats in favor. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15–9 in May. The floor is where personal stakes become explicit, and where Senator Ruben Gallego is drafting a compromise no one has yet endorsed.

    Cloture math at a glance

    Category Count
    Votes needed to proceed 60
    Republican senators 53
    Additional Democrats required 7+

    Key senator positions

    • Rand Paul (R): Firm no
    • Josh Hawley (R): Firm no
    • Thom Tillis (R): Conditional
    • 7 pro-crypto Democrats: Undecided
    • Kirsten Gillibrand (D): Hard line on ethics

    Disclosure without divestment leaves conflict intact

    The administration’s proposed compromise leans on transparency: officials would report crypto holdings rather than divest. Watchdogs argue disclosure does little when assets are liquid and volatile, because knowing what a president owns does not prevent those tokens from moving on the policies he signs. Warren’s committee staff found the provisions riddled with loopholes and noted enforcement would fall to a Justice Department he appoints. Transparency International reached the same conclusion. Friday’s meeting did not visibly close that gap.

    Failed vote hands crypto to agency rulebooks until at least 2029

    Prediction markets have priced in the difficulty. Polymarket odds of 2026 passage slid from 82% in February to roughly 16% by late August, and Galaxy Digital cut its estimate near 10%. A failed cloture vote would end the bill’s legislative year and leave the industry under regulation by enforcement, with the SEC, CFTC, and OCC each writing pieces of the rulebook on their own terms. The SEC has already proposed exempting certain token offerings from securities registration. That reality has fueled the argument that crypto regulation can advance even if CLARITY stalls—a view gaining traction among executives who would prefer a statute but expect to operate without one. Europe’s MiCA regime is already live and licensing firms, and a prolonged U.S. stalemate cedes that ground abroad.

    A calendar problem looms beyond Tuesday

    A timing issue the vote counts rarely mention compounds the uncertainty. The House has canceled its late-September voting weeks to focus on the midterm campaign, meaning even a Senate substitute would need identical House text or a lame-duck session after the November 3 elections to reach the president’s desk. Tuesday reads less as a finish line than as a signal of whether a 2026 deal remains mathematically alive.

  • XRP ‘Anti-Volatile’ Pattern Returns, Echoing Prior 240-Day Sideways Drift

    XRP ‘Anti-Volatile’ Pattern Returns, Echoing Prior 240-Day Sideways Drift

    XRP’s brief August rally has lost momentum, with the token’s price retreating to the $1.34–$1.37 range. Daily volatility has nearly evaporated, evidenced by Bollinger Bands tightening into a narrow horizontal line on the daily chart, according to TradingView data. Historically, this state of “anti-volatility” signals only one outcome for XRP: the market is hitting pause.

    Previous Cycles Point to Extended Sideways Action

    Historical patterns show that after such a lull, the asset typically enters a sluggish sideways drift lasting up to 240 days. The market’s current stillness is not without catalyst. Major participants and speculators are openly reluctant to establish positions ahead of a pivotal week that could reshape the macroeconomic landscape.

    Two Critical Events Loom Next Week

    First, the U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. The legislation stalled throughout the summer, prompting institutions to freeze activity, while inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds plunged by 93%.

    Second, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. U.S. inflation is accelerating again, with the Producer Price Index jumping to 5.4%, while Brent crude has surged above $107. Markets are pricing in a hawkish outcome with a 70% probability, driving major capital into cash positions.

    XRP/USD daily chart showing Bollinger Bands squeeze and declining volatility, Source: TradingView

    Holder Sentiment Provides Downside Support

    Despite macro pressure, XRP is being shielded from a deeper decline by a sharp shift in holder behavior. According to analytics platform CryptoQuant, the peak inflow of coins onto exchanges on September 9 was followed by a rapid outflow. In a single day, XRP reserves on Binance alone fell to 2.631 billion tokens.

    The price drop to a local low of $1.33 forced traders to stop selling and begin withdrawing assets from trading platforms while awaiting the upcoming catalysts.

    Two Historical Timeframes Frame the Consolidation

    Raw data from XRP’s previous accumulation periods reveals two clear scenarios:

    Short Cycle (79–89 Days)

    This duration matches how long the token accumulated strength during previous local cycles in 2025. If history repeats, the chart will not “wake up” until late November or early December 2026.

    Macro Cycle (Up to 240 Days)

    This aligns almost exactly with the previous exhausting sideways period before the August 31 breakout: nearly eight months, or 236 days. In the worst-case scenario, XRP will not emerge from its current consolidation until spring 2027.

    The timer for a potentially prolonged flat has already started. Its actual duration will be determined by the Senate vote and the Federal Reserve’s decision over the next few days.

  • What Happens If the CLARITY Act Bill Doesn’t Pass?

    What Happens If the CLARITY Act Bill Doesn’t Pass?

    CLARITY Act Faces Critical Senate Vote as Industry Warns of Regulatory Vacuum

    With the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act just days away, Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone outlined the likely scenarios if the legislation fails to pass—and he isn’t sugarcoating the odds of a quick legislative fix.

    Don’t Expect a Lame-Duck Save

    Asked whether the bill could still advance during a lame-duck session or early in the next Congress, Carbone was blunt: “I think that is unlikely,” he said. If the bill cannot move forward in the coming weeks before the election, he expects a very different path to take shape.

    Regulators Move Fast

    Carbone said the most immediate response would come from regulators themselves. “You’re going to see the regulators moving fast and furious,” he said, pointing to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, who is already signaling they’ll implement CLARITY’s goals through guidance and rulemaking rather than waiting on Congress. He expects that to start with an innovation exemption from the SEC, arriving quickly if the bill stalls.

    A “Skinny” Version Could Emerge

    The second path Carbone outlined involves breaking the bill apart. He reminded stakeholders that CLARITY isn’t one clean piece of legislation—it’s an amalgamation of roughly 40 to 50 separate bills merged into one package. That structure, he said, opens the door to pulling out individual provisions and attaching them to must-pass legislation later this year, citing the National Defense Authorization Act—which has passed every year for six decades—as a likely vehicle.

    Carbone was cautious about the odds of that approach working. “I don’t know if the latter will be successful,” he said, but he was confident regulators stepping in independently is the more likely outcome. “That will be the regulatory framework implementation for the next two years. It’ll likely be primarily agency action.”

    If CLARITY fails to clear its September 15 hurdle, Carbone’s read is that Washington doesn’t get a clean do-over anytime soon. Instead, expect regulators to fill the gap through rulemaking, with a slim chance that individual provisions get revived by riding along on unrelated must-pass bills before year’s end.