Daily News 19

Tag: Bitcoin price analysis

  • Analyst Warns U.S. Midterm Elections Could Trigger ‘Bitcoin dump’

    Analyst Warns U.S. Midterm Elections Could Trigger ‘Bitcoin dump’

    Key Highlights

    • Bitcoin fell after the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 US elections, with declines ranging from 27% to 72%.
    • Bitcoin was trading at $84,180 on September 29, 2026, after a 0.55% 24-hour gain.
    • Ali Martinez identified $73,000 as a potential support zone if the historical post-midterm pattern repeats.

    Bitcoin’s Historical Post-Election Performance Draws Attention

    Bitcoin investors are assessing whether historical price movements following US midterm elections could offer clues about market conditions ahead of November 3, 2026. The cryptocurrency declined by 72% after the 2010 election, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022.

    Ali Martinez highlighted the pattern while cautioning that historical correlation does not establish that elections caused the declines. “Following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, $BTC fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively. That does not prove elections caused the declines, but the pattern is worth watching ahead of November 3, 2026,” Martinez wrote.

    The US midterm elections are just over a month away, adding a potential source of uncertainty for Bitcoin traders. At press time on September 29, Bitcoin was trading at $84,180, up 0.55% over the previous 24 hours.

    Bitcoin price 24-hour chart. Source: Finbold

    Bitcoin’s Fourth-Quarter Record Is Mixed

    Historical fourth-quarter performance adds complexity to the outlook. Bitcoin surged 391% in the fourth quarter of 2010, but declined 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018 and 14.75% in Q4 2022.

    Based on the combination of prior post-midterm declines and uneven fourth-quarter performance, Martinez warned that the beginning of Q4 could bring increased volatility for Bitcoin investors. The analyst said a repeat of the historical post-midterm pattern could make the $73,000 level an important area to monitor.

    “If this post-midterm pattern repeats, Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near $73,000 could become the key support zone. During confirmed bull markets, this level has often held through major corrections, potentially creating a buying opportunity if $BTC pulls back,” he wrote.

    The $73,000 area represents Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis and has historically acted as support during confirmed bull markets. However, Martinez had also offered a more positive medium-term outlook a day earlier, predicting a possible move toward $100,000 if Bitcoin holds above the $82,000 neckline.

    Why This Matters

    The historical data gives Bitcoin traders specific levels and time periods to watch, but it does not establish a direct causal link between elections and cryptocurrency sell-offs. Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter record has varied substantially across election cycles, meaning broader market conditions and price structure remain important factors in evaluating the outlook.

    For now, the $82,000 neckline, the potential $73,000 support zone and the November 3, 2026, election date are the key reference points identified in the analysis. A sustained hold above $82,000 would support the medium-term scenario toward $100,000, while a pullback could test the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    How did Bitcoin perform after previous US midterm elections?

    Bitcoin fell 72% after the 2010 election, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022.

    What Bitcoin price level is being watched as potential support?

    Ali Martinez identified approximately $73,000 as a potentially important support zone because it represents Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis.

    What level could support a move toward $100,000?

    Martinez previously predicted a potential medium-term move toward $100,000 if Bitcoin holds above the $82,000 neckline.

  • Bitcoin Holds $75,900 as Market Cap Falls 4.70%, Charts Split

    Bitcoin Holds $75,900 as Market Cap Falls 4.70%, Charts Split

    Bitcoin Price Analysis: $75,926 Caught Between Daily Uptrend and Hourly Bearish Structure

    As of September 16, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $75,926.01, trapped in a technical standoff. The daily chart maintains a constructive long-term structure, while the hourly timeframe has already flipped bearish. The broader cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with total market capitalization declining 4.70% over the past 24 hours.

    Key Market Snapshot

    • Bitcoin Price: $75,926.01 (September 16, 2026)
    • 24-Hour Market Cap Change: -4.70%
    • BTC Dominance: 58.49%
    • Fear & Greed Index: 51 (Neutral)
    • Daily ATR14: $2,163.62 (elevated volatility)

    Daily Timeframe: Uptrend Intact but Momentum Fading

    Bitcoin’s daily trend remains structurally sound. Price sits above the EMA50 ($73,581.64) and EMA200 ($72,042.87), confirming the medium- and long-term uptrend persists. However, price has slipped below the EMA20 ($76,891.81), signaling cracked short-term momentum despite the bigger trend holding.

    Momentum Indicators Show Deceleration, Not Reversal

    • Daily RSI14: 49.26 — dead center, no conviction either way
    • MACD Line: 1,003.27 (above prior positive territory)
    • MACD Signal: 1,800.67 (line crossed below signal)
    • MACD Histogram: -797.41 (negative, momentum decelerating)

    The MACD configuration depicts a market losing steam rather than collapsing — momentum decelerating inside an uptrend, not reversing outright.

    Bollinger Bands and Key Pivot Levels

    Level Price
    Bollinger Upper Band $80,893.42
    Bollinger Mid-Band $78,088.60
    Daily Pivot $75,831.51
    Current Price $75,926.01
    Support S1 $75,552.02
    Bollinger Lower Band $75,283.78
    Resistance R1 $76,205.50

    Price has drifted into the lower third of the daily Bollinger Band range without breaching it. The daily ATR14 of $2,163.62 confirms elevated volatility — swings of this magnitude are the norm, not noise. Bitcoin is holding just above the daily pivot with resistance at R1 and support at S1, creating a tight, undecided zone.

    Hourly Chart: Confirmed Bearish Structure

    The hourly timeframe has flipped decisively bearish. Price trades below all three key exponential moving averages, stacked in textbook downtrend formation:

    • H1 EMA20: $76,162.11
    • H1 EMA50: $76,748.53
    • H1 EMA200: $77,750.43

    Hourly RSI14 at 42.46 leans bearish without reaching oversold territory, leaving room for further downside before any stretched-condition bounce becomes likely.

    Hourly MACD Shows Faint Bullish Divergence Attempt

    • MACD Line: -362.40
    • MACD Signal: -436.20
    • MACD Histogram: +73.80 (positive tick)

    The histogram has ticked positive — a small bullish crossover attempt unfolding inside an otherwise bearish setup. This signal typically appears when short-term buyers attempt to stall a decline rather than reverse it. The hourly pivot sits at $75,947.85 with resistance at R1 ($76,075.70) and support at S1 ($75,798.16), a narrow band effectively boxing price in.

    15-Minute Chart: Execution Context Only

    The 15-minute timeframe offers execution context rather than directional bias. It remains neutral and compressed, more useful for timing entries than reading the broader trend.

    • 15m RSI14: 51.43 (mildly constructive)
    • 15m MACD Histogram: +6.58 (hinting at short-lived intraday bounce)
    • EMA20: $75,900.04 | EMA50: $75,978.42 | EMA200: $76,765.24
    • 15m Pivot: $75,910 | R1: $75,944.01 | S1: $75,892

    The extremely tight range reflects the broader stalemate rather than resolving it.

    What Would Flip the Bias

    Bullish Reclamation Scenario

    Reclaiming the daily EMA20 ($76,891.81) would flip the bias back to bullish. Buyers must first push through daily R1 ($76,205.50) to open a path toward the Bollinger mid-band at $78,088.60. For this to begin, the hourly chart must invalidate its bearish regime — a close back above the H1 EMA20 ($76,162.11) and H1 EMA50 ($76,748.53) would be the first real sign the pullback is over.

    Bearish Extension Scenario

    A daily close below S1 ($75,552.02) and through the lower Bollinger Band ($75,283.78) would confirm the pullback is turning structural. Next reference points: daily EMA50 at $73,581.64 and EMA200 at $72,042.87. The hourly regime already supports this scenario with price stacked below all three EMAs. Losing the 15-minute pivot support at $75,892 with volume would confirm intraday buyers have abandoned the zone.

    Positioning and Risk Assessment

    Bitcoin currently reflects a market that has not made up its mind. The daily trend structure holds, but momentum indicators and the entire hourly timeframe lean against the bulls. Layer on a broader market that shed 4.70% of total capitalization in a single day, plus political catalysts — the Clarity Act and midterm outcome risk flagged by CNBC — and this is not a one-directional environment.

    With daily ATR above $2,100, volatility is real. A Neutral Fear & Greed reading of 51 suggests no crowd extreme to fade in either direction yet. The sensible approach: let pivot levels and EMA reclaim or loss points dictate bias rather than assuming either scenario is the default outcome.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the Bitcoin price today?

    As of September 16, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $75,926.01. The total crypto market capitalization is down 4.70% over the past 24 hours, with BTC dominance at 58.49%.

    Is Bitcoin in an uptrend or a downtrend right now?

    It depends on the timeframe. The daily chart shows an intact uptrend with price above the EMA50 and EMA200, while the hourly chart has already turned bearish with price below all three key EMAs. This divergence is the central tension in the market right now.

    What are the key levels to watch?

    On the upside, reclaiming the daily EMA20 at $76,891.81 and the daily R1 at $76,205.50 would be a bullish signal. On the downside, a close below S1 at $75,552.02 and the lower Bollinger Band at $75,283.78 would suggest a deeper correction toward the EMA50 at $73,581.64.

    What does the Fear & Greed Index say about current sentiment?

    The index reads 51, squarely in Neutral territory. This indicates the market has not capitulated despite the 24-hour drawdown, and there is no extreme sentiment to fade in either direction.

    Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptocurrency. The analysis provided is not indicative of future results. Investing in crypto assets and financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision.

    Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

  • BTC Holds Above $77,000 as Hourly Momentum Turns Bearish

    BTC Holds Above $77,000 as Hourly Momentum Turns Bearish

    Bitcoin Holds $77K as Daily Uptrend Persists Despite Fading Momentum and Short-Term Weakness

    As of September 11, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $77,218.01, maintaining a bullish daily structure even as underlying momentum shows signs of decay. The broader cryptocurrency market declined 2.31% on the day, yet Bitcoin dominance held firm at 58.15%, signaling capital concentration in BTC while altcoins absorb heavier selling pressure.

    Key Takeaways

    • Bitcoin price at $77,218.01 remains above all three major daily moving averages (EMA20, EMA50, EMA200).
    • Daily MACD histogram turns negative at -736.19, indicating decelerating momentum despite intact uptrend.
    • 1-hour chart displays a full bearish moving average stack with RSI14 at 45.68.
    • Fear & Greed Index sits at 56 (Greed), suggesting sentiment has not yet adjusted to intraday weakness.
    • Bitcoin dominance at 58.15% signals capital flight into BTC as total market cap contracts.

    Daily Structure: Bullish Trend Intact, Momentum Cooling

    Bitcoin’s daily chart confirms an unbroken uptrend, with price positioned above the EMA20 ($77,018.30), EMA50 ($72,881.04), and EMA200 ($72,271.40). This classic bullish stacking is supported by a daily RSI14 reading of 54.87 — neutral to firm, leaving room for extension should buyers re-engage.

    However, momentum indicators tell a more cautious story. The daily MACD line (2,016.8) remains above zero but has crossed below its signal line (2,752.99), producing a negative histogram of -736.19. This reflects a market that rallied sufficiently to hold above key averages, yet where the propulsive force behind the advance is fading — a textbook decelerating uptrend rather than a fresh breakout.

    Bollinger Bands reinforce this view: price trades below the mid-band ($78,621.15) and drifts toward the lower band ($76,276.11), rather than testing the upper band ($80,966.20). Average True Range (ATR14) stands at 2,234.41, indicating wide daily ranges and suggesting any directional resolution will arrive with velocity.

    The daily pivot rests at $77,718.20, with price currently below it. Resistance (R1) sits at $79,389.81 and support (S1) at $75,546.39. Trading beneath the pivot while the broader trend structure remains bullish favors patience over directional conviction.

    Short-Term Timeframes: Concentrated Weakness on 1H and 15m

    Intraday charts reveal a clear bearish shift. On the 1-hour timeframe, price ($77,200.48) trades below its EMA20 ($77,585.80), EMA50 ($77,749.40), and EMA200 ($78,489.49) — a full bearish moving average stack. RSI14 at 45.68 confirms seller control over recent sessions.

    A minor nuance: the 1H MACD histogram is slightly positive at 37.6 (line 72.53 above signal 34.93), hinting at nascent momentum stabilization. However, this signal is too small to constitute a reversal call, especially against a backdrop of macro uncertainty — including political overhang and regulatory ambiguity — that contrasts with the constructive daily structure.

    On the 15-minute chart, the picture remains soft. RSI14 at 40.24 and a clearly negative MACD histogram (-147.14) show sellers active into the latest candles. Price is pinned near its pivot ($77,190.01), with R1 at $77,226.01 and S1 at $77,156.00 defining a tight, indecisive range. The 15m chart signals a market awaiting a catalyst.

    Sentiment and Flows: Greed Persists Amid Pullback

    The Fear & Greed Index at 56 (Greed) has not yet recalibrated to match the 2%+ market decline, creating a notable sentiment-price disconnect. This can precede either a dip-buying resurgence that validates the daily uptrend, or a sharper flush if the 1H downtrend extends and forces overdue sentiment correction.

    On-chain data paints a mixed picture. Uniswap V4 fees rose double-digits over 24 hours, while Curve DEX fees dropped sharply over 7 days despite a strong 30-day trend. This divergence points to choppy, uneven risk appetite across DeFi rather than a clean directional read.

    Bullish Scenario: Reclaim Daily Pivot and EMA20

    Bulls need price to recapture the daily EMA20 ($77,018.30) and pivot ($77,718.20) to confirm the uptrend remains dominant. As long as price holds above the EMA50 ($72,881.04), the daily structure stays intact. A move back above the Bollinger mid-band ($78,621.15) would signal momentum re-acceleration, opening a path toward R1 at $79,389.81.

    Invalidation: A convincing break below daily S1 ($75,546.39) driven by deepening 1H bearish structure would shift the narrative from digestion to something more serious.

    Bearish Scenario: 1H Downtrend as Leading Edge of Deeper Correction

    Bears argue the 1H downtrend represents the vanguard of a larger correction, with regulatory and political uncertainty providing catalyst for continued de-risking. A break of daily S1 ($75,546.39) and sustained trade below the lower Bollinger Band ($76,276.11) would confirm the correction has legs.

    Invalidation: Reclaim of the 1H EMA200 ($78,489.49) coupled with daily RSI pushing convincingly above 55–60 would signal bulls back in control across timeframes, not just on the daily chart.

    What This Means for Traders

    Current price action reflects a market undecided on whether recent gains mark the start of a larger advance or a level requiring retest before trend continuation. The daily bullish regime, 1H bearish regime, and 15m indecision are not conflicting stories — they are a single narrative of a market pausing after a strong run, with sentiment still greedy and dominance favoring Bitcoin.

    ATR readings across timeframes imply the next move will not be slow. With dominance near 58% while total market cap contracts, altcoin exposure appears more vulnerable to downside than BTC itself. This is not a setup for blind conviction. The next few daily closes relative to the EMA20 and pivot levels will likely determine which scenario the market commits to.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is Bitcoin’s price today?

    Bitcoin trades at $77,218.01 as of September 11, 2026, hovering below its daily pivot of $77,718.20 but still above all three major daily moving averages.

    Is Bitcoin’s daily trend still bullish?

    Yes. The daily structure remains technically bullish with price above the EMA20 ($77,018.30), EMA50 ($72,881.04), and EMA200 ($72,271.40). However, MACD momentum is decelerating, suggesting the uptrend is maturing rather than accelerating.

    What does the Fear & Greed Index indicate?

    The index reads 56 (Greed), signaling sentiment has not yet washed out to match the intraday pullback. This leaves room for either a dip-buying resurgence or a sharper correction.

    What are the key levels to watch for Bitcoin?

    Critical levels include the daily pivot at $77,718.20, resistance at R1 ($79,389.81), and support at S1 ($75,546.39). A break above the Bollinger mid-band ($78,621.15) would signal renewed momentum, while a drop below S1 would suggest the correction has further to run.

    Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptocurrency. The analysis provided is not indicative of future results. Investing in crypto assets and financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision.

    Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

  • Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $75K After $82K Rejection

    Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $75K After $82K Rejection

    Bitcoin Tests Critical Daily Support After $82,000 Rejection Amid Global Market Pressure

    Bitcoin is approaching a decisive technical juncture after failing to sustain its September advance above $82,000. The cryptocurrency has pulled back to approximately $76,900 as sellers regained control following the latest rejection at resistance.

    Daily Structure Faces Key Test at Change in State of Delivery

    The retreat has brought Bitcoin back toward a crucial area on the daily chart. The previous advance followed roughly 32 days of upward price delivery from the August low near $62,200, but momentum has now weakened significantly.

    Price is currently testing a daily Change in State of Delivery (CISD) near $77,150. A decisive move around this level could determine whether the recent rally remains intact or shifts into a deeper corrective phase. The CISD matters because it marks a potential change in the direction of daily price delivery. A decisive close below that level would confirm weakening short-term structure, a risk that has become more pronounced after Bitcoin briefly traded above $82,000 on September 3 before retreating.

    Key Technical Levels Define Near-Term Outlook

    The chart now places $81,468 as nearby resistance, while the broader trading range remains between $76,000 and $82,000. As a result, the $76,000 level has emerged as a key technical threshold. A firm break below it would strengthen the bearish outlook and increase the risk of a deeper decline.

    The current support area is particularly important. A confirmed loss of the $76,000-$77,000 region would place $75,000 as the first major downside test. Lower chart levels then become increasingly relevant. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement sits near $72,000, while the 0.62 retracement lies around $69,500-$70,000. The chart also highlights liquidity around the broader $69,000 area. These levels represent deeper retracements of the August-to-September rally rather than guaranteed destinations. Their importance would increase only after a confirmed daily structural breakdown.

    The current setup centers on whether the previous 32-day upward delivery remains intact. A sustained loss of support would mark a clear deterioration from that earlier structure.

    Global Macro Pressure Adds Weight to Technical Test

    The technical test is unfolding alongside broader pressure across global markets. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.2% Friday as Japanese government bond yields continued rising. The 10-year JGB yield climbed to 2.98%, while Brent crude briefly reached $109.97. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also touched 4.979%.

    Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% next week. Higher Japanese rates reduce the attractiveness of yen-funded carry trades. Reuters has previously linked yen strength with concerns about carry-trade unwinding and tighter liquidity conditions. Those developments add pressure to risk assets while Bitcoin remains close to technical support.

    Bullish Scenario Requires Reclaim of Key Levels

    However, the downside scenario still requires confirmation. Holding the $76,000-$77,000 region would preserve the possibility of another consolidation or accumulation phase. A recovery above $80,000 would provide the first sign that buyers are regaining control.

    In such a scenario, the next resistance levels would remain at $81,468 and the broader $82,000 zone. A sustained break above $82,000 would restore the upward structure that weakened after the September rejection. The chart does not directly confirm $100,000 as an immediate target, though that level remains a longer-term psychological objective if upward momentum returns.

    For now, daily closes around $76,000-$77,000 remain the key signal. They will determine whether the rejection develops below $75,000 or stabilizes before another recovery attempt.

  • Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Predictions Today: Why Crypto Is Falling

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Predictions Today: Why Crypto Is Falling

    Crypto Market Pulls Back: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Technical Analysis Amid Treasury Buybacks

    The global cryptocurrency market capitalization declined to $2.75 trillion, marking a 1.2% drop over the past 24 hours, with trading volume reaching $95.24 billion. Major assets retreated across the board: Bitcoin slipped to $78,218.90, Ethereum eased to $2,470.18, and XRP fell to $1.39.

    Bitcoin: Cooling Off, Not Breaking Down

    Bitcoin remains trapped in a resistance zone between $80,000 and $82,000, while support holds firm between $73,000 and $75,000. Chart analysts indicate the pullback follows an overbought signal on the 3-day RSI, combined with a confirmed bearish divergence that emerged roughly a week ago after Bitcoin’s recent short squeeze. Together, these signals point to further consolidation or a mild pullback rather than a sharp reversal.

    Liquidation data highlights the more immediate level to watch between $77,200 and $77,400, with additional liquidity below that near $76,100. A dip toward the $76,000–$77,000 range remains a plausible near-term scenario, even as the broader multi-year trend stays intact.

    Ethereum: Still Structurally Bullish Despite the Dip

    In the near term, Ethereum faces resistance around $2,520 to $2,530, a level that has rejected price multiple times in recent weeks. The analyst noted that repeated tests of resistance without a sharp rejection tend to weaken that resistance over time, increasing the odds of an eventual breakout. However, a potential bearish divergence remains a risk if Ethereum’s RSI fails to clear its prior high during any breakout attempt.

    XRP: Holding Key Support Amid Sideways Action

    XRP continues to defend a critical support zone between $1.30 and $1.40 on the weekly chart, with the token trading sideways in the shorter term. Immediate support sits near $1.34 to $1.35, while resistance lies at $1.46 to $1.47. Because Bitcoin dominance has pulled back slightly, altcoins including XRP may hold up better than Bitcoin during this cooling-off period rather than falling in lockstep.

    Treasury Buybacks Add a Macro Layer

    Away from the charts, the U.S. Treasury bought back $12.5 billion in short-term debt today and is expected to repurchase up to $6 billion in long-term bonds tomorrow—triple the usual size. The moves are aimed at managing bond market liquidity and containing yields, a dynamic that continues to factor into broader risk asset sentiment alongside crypto’s technical setup.

  • Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $70K if $78K Neckline Breaks

    Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $70K if $78K Neckline Breaks

    Bitcoin Holds Near $78,500 as Technical Pressure and Macro Risks Mount

    Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $78,500 on September 9 after retreating from a September 3 peak of $82,283, a decline of roughly 4.6%. The pullback has extended a series of lower highs on the 4-hour chart, with buyers repeatedly defending the $78,000 area but failing to reclaim the psychological $80,000 level.

    4-Hour Technicals Show Fading Momentum

    On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin sat at approximately $78,522, below the middle Bollinger Band at $79,079 and only slightly above the lower band at $78,015. Proximity to the lower band often signals increasing selling pressure, though the nearby support could also trigger a short-term bounce. A recovery above the middle band would be needed to weaken the immediate bearish setup.

    The upper Bollinger Band sits near $80,144, making the $80,000–$80,150 region the first major resistance zone. A daily close above that area would give bulls another chance to challenge recent highs around $81,500 and $82,300.

    The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) read 43.58, below both the neutral 50 mark and its signal average of 44.71, indicating bearish momentum without reaching oversold territory.

    Macro Headwinds: Oil, Yields, and Fed Policy

    Bitcoin’s decline coincided with a broader risk-off move driven by escalating Middle East tensions. Brent crude climbed to $99.22 per barrel on September 9, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $94.13, reviving fears that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated.

    Rising inflation expectations affect Federal Reserve interest-rate projections. Higher rates and bond yields boost returns on lower-risk assets, creating competition for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

    U.S. Treasury yields added pressure. The benchmark 10-year yield surged above 4.85% after the Treasury announced a $6 billion buyback of older bonds (10- to 20-year maturities). The 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2007. Rising yields tighten financial conditions by increasing borrowing costs and reducing appetite for volatile assets.

    Traders are now focused on incoming inflation data and oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting for clues on whether the central bank will maintain a restrictive stance.

    Daily Structure Still Intact, but Head-and-Shoulders Looms

    Daily indicators remain less bearish. Bitcoin continues to trade above the daily Supertrend support at $72,786, meaning the broader recovery structure has not been invalidated despite the recent drop.

    The daily Aroon lines are closely matched at 57.14% and 50%, showing neither buyers nor sellers have established firm control on the higher timeframe.

    Crypto analyst Gerla identified a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder near late-August highs, the head at the September 3 peak, and the right shoulder possibly forming during the latest rebound.

    “$78K–$79K is the line in the sand. Lose that and $70K could come pretty quick,” Gerla said in a Sept. 9 post on X.

    The pattern remains unconfirmed while Bitcoin holds its neckline. A decisive daily close below $78,000 would strengthen the bearish setup and expose the $76,000–$77,000 zone before the larger downside target near $70,000.

    Liquidation Heatmap Highlights Key Liquidity Zones

    CoinGlass’s three-day liquidation heatmap shows heavy leveraged-position clusters above current levels. The strongest nearby liquidity sits between roughly $79,700 and $80,200, with additional concentrations extending toward $82,000. These levels can act as magnets during high-leverage periods, though they do not guarantee price will reach them. A recovery through $79,100 could trigger short liquidations and fuel a test of the $80,000 cluster.

    Downside liquidity is concentrated near $78,000 and between approximately $77,500 and $77,800. A break below current support could accelerate volatility as leveraged longs are closed. Further liquidity appears around $76,000, aligning with the next technical support area beneath the proposed neckline.

    Key Levels to Watch

    • Immediate range: Lower Bollinger Band (~$78,015) to middle band (~$79,079). Holding $78,000 keeps a relief move toward $79,700–$80,150 in play.
    • Bullish trigger: Sustained break above $80,150 weakens the short-term bearish structure and puts $81,500 and $82,283 back in focus. Clearing the September peak would confirm a renewed uptrend.
    • Bearish confirmation: Daily close below $78,000 shifts focus to $77,500, then the wider $76,000–$77,000 support zone. The head-and-shoulders interpretation gains credibility below the neckline, though the daily Supertrend near $72,786 remains a critical barrier before the $70,000 scenario can develop.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) at a Critical Junction After Rally: Analysts Say Further Gains Depend on Two Events

    Bitcoin (BTC) at a Critical Junction After Rally: Analysts Say Further Gains Depend on Two Events

    Bitcoin surged 24% in August, marking its strongest monthly gain since November 2024. After the sharp rally, the cryptocurrency stabilized near $78,000 as high oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields limited further upside.

    At the same time, expectations for a September interest rate hike increased significantly following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole. Despite the more hawkish outlook from the Fed, analysts say Bitcoin continues to hold key support levels.

    Bitcoin Holds Critical Support at $77,100

    According to Bitfinex analysts, Bitcoin is holding its critical support level at $77,100 despite signals that the Federal Reserve may pursue a more hawkish monetary policy.

    Bitfinex’s latest Alpha report said Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback last week after climbing to $81,500 following Kevin Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole. However, Bitcoin’s ability to remain above $77,100 suggests that the broader uptrend has not yet been broken.

    Spot Bitcoin Buying Supports the Rally

    Bitfinex analysts said Bitcoin’s August surge was not driven solely by leveraged trading. Actual purchases in the spot market also contributed to the cryptocurrency’s rise.

    U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $924.5 million during the week of August 24-28. Bitfinex said liquidity concentrated in ETFs and stablecoins is supporting the Bitcoin and broader crypto market uptrend, although high inflation and expectations of future interest rate hikes could restrict additional gains.

    U.S. employment data due on September 4 and inflation data scheduled for September 11 are expected to be important for market expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision.

    Can Bitcoin Hold Above $80,000?

    Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole but has continued to hold the $77,100 support level.

    Questions remain over whether Bitcoin can sustain a move above $80,000. Bitfinex points to strong spot Bitcoin demand and approximately $925 million in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs as factors supporting the market. However, some analysts remain cautious about the durability of the rally.

    Greeks.live analyst Adam said ETFs had recorded large inflows, but the strong inflow streak ended with a $202 million outflow on August 28. The analyst warned that continued ETF outflows, and the possibility that they could become permanent, may make it more difficult for Bitcoin to remain above $80,000.

    The analyst also discussed Strategy’s decision to resume Bitcoin purchases after a long pause. According to the analyst, Strategy’s purchases could support the price in the short term but may not be sufficient on their own to alter the long-term trend.

    Macroeconomic Risks Remain

    The analyst said the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and broader macroeconomic uncertainty remain among the main risks facing Bitcoin, echoing concerns raised by Bitfinex.

    These factors are putting additional pressure on investor confidence and the Bitcoin price. The analyst believes it is too early to describe the market as a new strong bull trend without a sustained move above $80,000. ETF flows and Federal Reserve policy are likely to play a decisive role in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Bitcoin Needs Sustained ETF Demand as Fed Rate Hike Risks Grow, Analysts Say

    Bitcoin Needs Sustained ETF Demand as Fed Rate Hike Risks Grow, Analysts Say

    Bitcoin’s August rally is facing a tougher test as investors assess whether sustained spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand can offset rising expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike.

    Bitfinex analysts said in an Aug. 31 market report shared with crypto.news that Bitcoin’s latest advance has increasingly been driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage. That could leave the market better positioned to absorb selling even as U.S. monetary conditions become less supportive.

    Bitcoin ($BTC) was trading near $78,700 at the time of writing, down about 0.4% over 24 hours, according to crypto.news data. The cryptocurrency briefly climbed above $81,000 last week before falling to $76,857 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole address to signal that interest rates may still need to rise.

    The decline interrupted a rally that lifted Bitcoin from below $65,000 in mid-August to above $80,000. As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin gained about 24% during the preceding week as Treasury buybacks, ETF demand and forced short covering fueled the recovery.

    Bitcoin ETF demand faces a tougher test

    Bitfinex analysts said the derivatives market has not displayed the rapid leverage buildup typically associated with an overheated rally. Bitcoin open interest stood at $55.6 billion, more than 20% above its level at the start of August, but the increase has been gradual and basis levels have remained relatively low.

    “We are in a market driven by spot buying and, notwithstanding large short liquidations, open interest has only gradually increased, while basis has remained relatively low and at healthy levels historically,” the analysts said.

    According to the report, Bitcoin holding the $77,100 level, which Bitfinex identified as important lower-timeframe support, alongside continued spot buying would suggest that market conditions remain relatively balanced.

    ETF flows offer another indication of whether that demand can continue. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed about $3.04 billion during nine consecutive positive sessions from Aug. 17 through Aug. 27, according to Bitfinex. Friday marked the first net outflow in 10 sessions, with investors withdrawing $201.9 million as Bitcoin reversed from above $81,000.

    Despite those redemptions, the funds recorded $924.5 million in net inflows for the week. Inflows over the preceding two weeks totaled about $2.8 billion.

    BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for just $33.4 million of Friday’s withdrawals after attracting roughly $2.3 billion during the previous nine sessions. ARKB and BITB recorded a combined $164.6 million in outflows.

    Institutional demand has also absorbed Bitcoin sold by larger holders, Bitfinex said. Whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 $BTC reduced their balances by 50,500 $BTC since the end of June, while institutional custodial holdings associated with exchanges and ETF platforms increased by 59,100 $BTC.

    During the latest August advance, custodial balances rose by 31,500 $BTC, closely tracking ETF inflows, according to the analysts.

    “While whales took profits during the rally, institutional demand absorbed that supply, indicating that assets moving into these regulated vehicles may be less prone to sudden liquidation on the basis of short-term macroeconomic news.”

    $80K–$83K could test the strength of real demand

    Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, told crypto.news that part of Bitcoin’s August rally resulted from Treasury buybacks pushing yields and the dollar lower while traders held large short positions.

    Ko said the mechanical portion of the resulting short squeeze has now “largely played out,” making spot demand increasingly important around $80,000.

    “Treasury buybacks pushed yields and the dollar lower, and that impulse collided with crowded short positioning to produce the squeeze,” Ko said. “What matters from here is whether spot buyers keep absorbing supply around $80K.”

    The Treasury catalyst had already produced a sharp market response earlier in August. On Aug. 19, the department announced that it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year nominal coupon securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4.

    The change helped compress long-term yields as Bitcoin surged. An Aug. 20 analysis of the buybacks found that $BTC rose 8.2% from an intraday low of $64,100 to $69,500 within 12 hours of the Treasury announcement, while $1.44 billion in short positions were liquidated.

    Ko views the $80,000–$83,000 range as more than a technical resistance zone. The area could reveal whether new investment can replace the buying pressure previously generated by forced short covering.

    “It is a major supply zone, and the point at which the rally stops being a short squeeze and becomes a test of real capital allocation.”

    Ether could provide another signal of broader cryptocurrency risk appetite. Ko said ETH traded near $2,490 heading into Jackson Hole but subsequently lagged Bitcoin in price performance. If Treasury yields and the dollar remain elevated while Ether begins outperforming Bitcoin in both price and investment flows, he would view that as evidence of stronger crypto demand.

    Bitfinex also identified Ether ETFs as a potential demand gauge. U.S. spot Ether products attracted $815.7 million last week, extending their positive streak to 10 sessions, according to the firm. Nearly 12.3% of cumulative Ether ETF inflows since launch arrived during August, while demand adjusted for the relative size of the assets was roughly four times stronger than Bitcoin ETF demand during the past week.

    Fed rate hike risk threatens Bitcoin’s liquidity support

    Bitcoin is now facing pressure from a less favorable interest-rate outlook. Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks lifted the market-implied probability of a September rate increase to about 57%, according to Bitfinex.

    Ko said CME-implied odds rose from 39.9% on Aug. 21 to 57% following the speech. The two-year Treasury yield moved to around 4.31%, while the dollar returned toward a two-week high.

    Bitfinex analysts said persistent inflation remains a key obstacle to easier monetary policy. Headline Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation stood at 3.7%, with core inflation at 3.3%, while private domestic demand expanded at a 4.2% annualized pace during the second quarter.

    Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of BTSE, told crypto.news that Warsh’s speech raised the hurdle for Bitcoin because higher interest rates could reduce the liquidity available to cryptocurrency assets.

    “For a sustained rally, we need a few things to happen. First, ETF demand has to stay strong across all ETF products, and not just BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. Second, we need better inflation data for the Fed to back off and keep rates steady.”

    Mei also warned that the boost from Treasury buybacks could fade quickly. Earlier in August, Bitcoin broke above $76,000 as ETF inflows accelerated alongside improving U.S. liquidity conditions. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $606 million on Aug. 20 alone, extending the institutional demand that accompanied the recovery from mid-August lows.

    U.S. economic data could shape Bitcoin’s next move

    Market attention is turning to a series of U.S. economic releases that could change interest-rate expectations before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

    Ko identified Friday’s August payroll report as the most important immediate event and the final jobs report before the FOMC decision. July payrolls fell by 23,000 compared with an 80,000 consensus estimate, while May and June payrolls were revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs, according to figures cited by Ko. The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.1%.

    Before the payrolls report, ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS data are due Tuesday. ADP employment figures and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are scheduled for Wednesday, followed by ISM Services data on Thursday. Bitfinex analysts also identified the August labor-market and inflation reports as the next major tests for rate expectations.

    The August inflation report is scheduled for Sept. 11, placing another important data release immediately before the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting.

    Ko also pointed to the CLARITY Act as a crypto-specific U.S. catalyst, with a Senate procedural vote currently scheduled for Sept. 15. He considers the vote one of the largest asset-specific events on the September calendar, while the Federal Reserve meeting will determine the monetary backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

    For Bitcoin’s price, Mei sees $87,000 as the next level that would materially strengthen the bullish case after the cryptocurrency clears nearer resistance zones.

    “If we break the $87k mark and hold, $100K becomes the real target, and we could be looking at a bull market.”

  • Bitcoin Tests Crucial $80K–$81K Resistance: Will BTC Reach $100K or Fall to $70K?

    Bitcoin Tests Crucial $80K–$81K Resistance: Will BTC Reach $100K or Fall to $70K?

    Bitcoin is approaching a critical technical zone after retreating from last week’s three-month high of $81,455 and moving back toward $78,000. The pullback has made the $80,000-$81,000 range the market’s key battleground, with a breakout potentially opening the path toward $100,000 and a rejection raising the risk of a decline toward $70,000.

    Bitcoin’s next move will depend on several measurable factors rather than price momentum alone. Technical indicators have improved, but rising Binance whale inflows and upcoming U.S. economic data could influence broader risk appetite.

    Bitcoin’s $81,000 Resistance Could Determine the Next Move

    Technical analyst Ash Crypto described Bitcoin’s weekly market structure as neutral, suggesting that neither buyers nor sellers currently have clear control. However, several momentum indicators have strengthened during the latest recovery.

    The MACD has turned bullish, the RSI has moved above 50, and stochastic RSI momentum has also improved. Buyers have continued defending the $77,000-$78,000 area following the recent pullback.

    Source: X

    The main obstacle remains the 50-week moving average near $81,000. A sustained weekly move above that level would break an important technical barrier and bring $90,000 back into focus as the next major price zone.

    Bitcoin could then target the broader upside level of $100,000 identified by the current market structure. However, another rejection near $81,000 would keep the cryptocurrency below key moving-average resistance.

    In that scenario, $75,000 would become the next notable support area, followed by approximately $69,000 if selling pressure intensifies.

    Binance Whale Inflows and U.S. Jobs Data Test Bitcoin’s Breakout

    On-chain activity introduces another important variable. CryptoQuant analyst BorisD reported that 30-day Binance whale inflows increased from roughly $3.47 billion to $5.5 billion during Bitcoin’s rally.

    Source: CryptoQuant

    However, the analyst cautioned that exchange deposits do not automatically signal incoming selling. Large holders may also be using Bitcoin as collateral for leveraged positions.

    U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.9 million in net outflows on Aug. 28, ending a nine-day inflow streak. Despite that reversal, the latest outflows remain small compared with longer-term fund activity. Cumulative ETF net inflows stand near $54.63 billion, indicating that institutional participation remains substantial.

    Macroeconomic data will provide another test for Bitcoin’s price action. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is due September 1, followed by the August U.S. employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

    Economists expect payrolls to increase by about 45,000. Because markets are closely watching economic data for signals about Federal Reserve policy, the releases could influence Bitcoin’s next attempt to break above $81,000 resistance.

    Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, while weaker readings could shift those expectations. Either outcome could add volatility around Bitcoin’s $81,000 resistance and its lower support levels.

    Related: Bitcoin and XRP Face>

  • Bitcoin Ready for Its Next Rally, Top Trader Says

    Bitcoin Ready for Its Next Rally, Top Trader Says

    Bitcoin may be positioning for another move higher after holding key support despite a sharp intraday sell-off, according to prominent crypto trader DonAlt.

    “Looks like we’re gonna get another leg up soon,” DonAlt said in a post on X on Aug. 31.

    The outlook comes as Bitcoin enters September following an unusually strong August and a powerful third-quarter recovery. The largest cryptocurrency has climbed sharply from around $64,700 earlier in the month. Recent price action shows $BTC consolidating near $78,000 after briefly approaching $81,000.

    Bitcoin holds support after sharp sell-off

    Bitcoin briefly moved above $80,000 in late August before retreating toward $77,000. Instead of extending its decline, however, the cryptocurrency stabilized and began to recover, suggesting that buyers remain active below $78,000.

    Bitcoin recently suffered an almost 6% intraday decline after Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh adopted a more hawkish tone, according to Bitfinex. The cryptocurrency nevertheless held near $77,100.

    Strategy buys another 4,603 Bitcoin

    Strategy, the Michael Saylor-led business intelligence company that has made Bitcoin the centerpiece of its treasury strategy, purchased another 4,603 $BTC for approximately $369.7 million. The purchases took place between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30 at an average price of $80,318.

    The acquisition shows that Strategy continued buying despite considerable Bitcoin volatility toward the end of the month. Whale activity has also remained elevated. Whale Alert reported the transfer of 1,922 $BTC, worth approximately $149.7 million, between two unidentified wallets on Aug. 31.

    Large cryptocurrency transfers do not necessarily indicate buying or selling. They can also reflect internal wallet movements, custody changes or other forms of repositioning.

    Bitcoin posts one of its strongest August performances

    Bitcoin’s technical setup comes as the cryptocurrency closes one of its strongest months in years.

    Bitcoin’s third-quarter return currently stands at approximately 32.48%, substantially above its historical average Q3 return of 7.94%. The performance is particularly notable because it follows two consecutive quarterly declines: a 22.2% loss in Q1 and a 14.09% decline in Q2.

    Analysts remain divided over a sustained Bitcoin rally

    Despite the increasingly bullish technical picture, some analysts remain skeptical that Bitcoin has entered a new sustained bull market.

    Mike McGlone, a longtime Bitcoin bear, argued that the cryptocurrency continues to face significant macroeconomic headwinds. He cited Federal Reserve policy, competition across the broader crypto market and Bitcoin’s growing correlation with equities as reasons for caution.

    As a result, the $80,000-$81,000 range could become a major test for Bitcoin bulls.