Category: Coins

• New IMF data on world currency reserves show: The dollar is losing influence because central banks are diversifying their holdings more widely.
• For the crypto industry, this means a financial system that is becoming more multipolar because Bitcoin and stablecoins are becoming more important.

Die publication of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves (COFER) at the end of 2025 shows continuous long-term trends. The share of the US dollar in world currency reserves is falling. At the same time, they especially win Euro and the Chinese renminbi and even currencies of smaller industrialized countries are becoming more important.

The data shows a slow but clearly visible diversification of central banks, so far without any abrupt shifts. This has several indirect but relevant implications for the crypto industry.

Less dollar influence strengthens Bitcoin

For the crypto industry, the decline in the dollar share is an indication of a long-term decline in trust in the traditional reserve currency. Bitcoin is increasingly being used as a seen as a “neutral alternative, not influenced by state interests” and can therefore continue to rise in price in the long term.

The broader reserve distribution highlights the geopolitical fragmentation of the global financial system. An environment in which no single currency dominates is considered favorable for non-state-controlled digital assetsas these are not tied to national interests.

Stablecoins are becoming more relevant

Although COFER data only captures government reserves, the trend has an indirect impact on the stablecoin discourse: While the dollar loses weight in official reserves, its weight increases digital use via USD stablecoins in international trade. This creates an area of ​​tension between government reserve policy and private sector dollar representations.

The IMF report contains no direct statement about cryptocurrencies. The importance for the industry still arises from the Interpretation of the macro data Analysts and institutional investors.

Can Bitcoin win in the long term?

The new IMF-COFER data confirm the long-term trend Diversification of global currency reserves. This means for the crypto industry: More tailwind for Bitcoin, more geopolitical relevance for stablecoins, and an environment in which non-governmental digital assets look more attractive.

• VeChain and 4ocean rely on incentive-based apps to make sustainable behavior measurable.
• Cleanup activities are verified using AI and blockchain and rewarded transparently.

In a new interview, VeChain CEO Sunny Lu classifies the partnership with 4ocean not as a classic “blockchain-meets-sustainability” project, but as an attempt to address a structural problem with measurable incentives. Removing plastic from the oceans is necessary, but not sufficient.

What is crucial is to change behavior permanently, and this is exactly where Lu sees the starting point for VeChain.
“The biggest challenge is not just the plastic waste that already exists,” Lu said CNF reported. “It’s also about how we reduce consumption overall.”

Lu refers to a joint cleanup operation in Miami, which UFC President Dana White also took part in. The VeChain CEO cited the campaign as an example of reach and impact: “We thought Dana would stop by, take a photo, answer a few questions and leave. In fact, he worked for an hour.” Each participant collected 20 to 25 pounds of trash. “It shows what kind of influence you have to really get even people with a wide reach to take action.”

This direct effort has a lasting effect, says Lu: “Once you see how a beautiful place is full of plastic, paper and waste, then it changes something. People develop an awareness and say to themselves: I don’t want to be part of this problem.”

This is exactly where VeChain comes in with incentive-based applications. “What we’re building uses apps to motivate people to take positive actions,” Lu explains. “When you look back and see what you have specifically achieved in the last few weeks, motivation arises.” The collaboration with 4ocean is therefore obvious: “We come from the technology perspective, you from the practical problem solving. They complement each other.”

The role of VeChain

Lu specifically mentions the Cleanify app, which has already been used in joint campaigns. “Cleanify makes daily cleanup activities visible and rewarding,” he says. Users document their actions with photos, which are then verified. “The AI ​​checks the images, supplemented by location data such as GPS. Rewards are then paid out.”

The approach should deliberately be low-threshold. Lu describes a private example: “My daughter uses a similar app when she walks her dog. She documents it and gets a small reward. It’s simple – but effective.”

For Lu, this is where the real benefit of blockchain technology lies: “This is real utility. People not only become users, but also develop their own ideas on how to improve applications. Competition is expressly desired, this is how better products are created.”

It is important that the system does not only work for crypto-savvy users. “With social login and custody solutions, people don’t have to worry about wallets or technical details. They can log in with Google or Apple and get started right away.”

Schulze also sees blockchain integration as a central lever: “Transparency is crucial, and consumers are increasingly demanding it. Together we can reach a new level and make visible the impact that individual actions can have.”

The entry point for those interested is deliberately kept simple. “You go to vebetter.com,” says Lu. “There are currently 42 applications there. You choose one and can try it out immediately.”

The partnership between VeChain and 4ocean was officially announced in May, as CNF reported, and aims to combine real-world environmental work with blockchain-based verification and incentive infrastructure. Specifically, it’s about making 4ocean’s cleanup activities – such as beach, canal or ocean cleaning – digitally traceable and rewarding them via VeChain’s app ecosystem.

Users can document real clean-up operations, which are then technically checked, while brands and partners can for the first time transparently understand where, when and to what extent environmental work was actually carried out.

• CryptoQuant sees slowing capital inflows and significantly slowing demand growth for Bitcoin, including weaker institutional/whale dynamics.
• The regime score is positive and a short liquidation wave could trigger a mechanical year-end boost at the end of December.

After crashing to almost $80,000, the Bitcoin price is still in the discovery phase. While bearish voices continue to grow on crypto Twitter, the data is not clear.

On the one hand, the on-chain inflows are weakening, the demand side seems tired. On the other hand, the current derivatives flow could provide exactly the kind of boost that is often called the “Santa Rally” at the end of December, even if technically it looks more like a liquidation mechanic.

The bearish argument for Bitcoin

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju wrote on Sunday evening on

The leading on-chain analysis company already had a new one last Friday Message published, which can clearly be assigned to the bearish side.

“Bitcoin demand growth has slowed significantly, signaling a transition into a bear market. After three major waves of spot demand since 2023 – triggered by the US spot ETF launch, the US presidential election result and the ‘Bitcoin Treasury Companies’ bubble – demand growth has fallen below trend since the beginning of October 2025.”

And further: “This suggests that the majority of the incremental demand of this cycle has already been realized, thus removing a key pillar of price support.”

Another observation from the analysis company is also very bearish. “Institutional and large holder demand is now shrinking instead of growing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become net sellers in Q4 2025, with holdings down by 24,000 BTC – a sharp contrast to the strong accumulation in Q4 2024.”

In addition, there is the observation that addresses in the 100-1,000 BTC range are growing “below trend” and that looks more “like late 2021” than a fresh bull market. In short, the flow data doesn’t sound like the start of a new rally, but more like a tough bear market.

The bullish argument

However, a look at the derivatives market still gives hope in the short term. Verified CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. writes today via

In his „Morning Brief“ (#66) he adds, and it gets heavy on numbers, but good. “The BTC market is in the upper part of the regime score neutral zone, which has historically shown positive expected returns. The current liquidation structure in the futures market suggests a dominance of short closes, which creates additional mechanical pressure in favor of buyers.”

According to the letter, Adler’s regime score is +16.3, i.e. in the +15 to +30 zone. His backtests for 2025 show: in this subzone BTC rose by an average of +3.8% over 30 days, while the -15 to 0 zone brought negative prices. When it becomes “too bullish” (>30), it often becomes dangerous.

“An important point from the backtesting: the transition into the formal bull regime (+30 and above) has historically coincided with local tops and delivered negative average returns of −3.3% over 7 days.” However, the score currently shows bullish potential: “This means that the current zone of +15 to +30 could be optimal for tactical positions”

The US ETF market remains the most important demand driver for the Bitcoin price and sounds less like a bear market than like long-term adoption.

Senior Bloomberg-ETF-Analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on Friday via

And then the sentence that sticks: “That’s a really good sign in the long term, in my opinion. If you do $25 billion in a bad year, imagine the flow potential in a good year.”

• The Paris-based asset manager Amundi, part of Crédit Agricole, has launched a tokenized version of its euro money market fund on Ethereum.
• The Ethereum version combines a private distributed ledger with a public blockchain. This combines regulatory security with the interoperability of open networks.

Amundi has completed its entry into the onchain representation of fund shares with the tokenized “Amundi Funds Cash EUR”. The structure is based on a two-stage model. It combines a private Distributed-Ledger-infrastructure of the CACEIS-Bank as a depository with public availability Ethereum.

The CACEIS banking group, which is also part of Crédit Agricole, offers asset servicing for asset managers, insurance companies, pension funds, banks, private equity and real estate funds, brokers and other business customers.

The underlying fund has a volume of around five billion euros, and sales continue to take place in parallel via traditional channels.

According to official notice Amundi is pursuing an approach that combines the regulatory requirements of institutional fund products with the technical interoperability of public networks. The Tokenization accelerates the settlement process, increases the transparency of the register and integrates other digital assets – in particular Stablecoins – into institutional workflows.

Money market funds as an entry into the RWA world

According to Amundi, money market funds are the most suitable asset class for the new fund duality, as they can be relatively easily converted into a real-world asset structure due to their standardization, liquidity and low volatility.

Amundi also sees enough potential in tokenization for more efficient liquidity management and more precise intraday processing.

With this move, Amundi is moving into a growing market segment in which several large US asset managers are either testing or already using blockchain-based fund shares.

The expansion to other asset classes could take place, but according to the company, this depends on the design of the regulatory framework and the market acceptance of digital settlement models.

Jean-Jacques Barbéris, Amundi division manager for institutional and corporate clientscomments on the background of the new hybrid fund:

“The tokenization of assets is a change that will accelerate worldwide in the coming years. This first initiative for a money market fund demonstrates our know-how and the robustness of our methodology in covering concrete use cases. Ensuring the highest security standards, Amundi will continue and expand its tokenization initiatives for the benefit of its customers in France and internationally.”

Two-pronged for a broader customer base

Jean-Pierre Michalowski, Chief Executive Officer bei CACEISexplained the custody service adapted to the hybrid fund:

“With the new hybrid transfer agent service, our customers can quickly and easily benefit from a new distribution channel via blockchain to their investors. This is a crucial step towards our goal of offering 24/7 subscription and redemption services for mutual fund shares denominated in stablecoins or one digital central bank currency are payable as soon as they become available.”

• At VeChain we see the future in blockchain networks that are designed as infrastructure for institutions.
• To be successful, such blockchains must be technically highly resilient, economically adaptable and strictly compliant with regulations.

VeChain has been relying on institutions to introduce blockchain for years, so far predominantly in its own home market of Asia. The Hayabusa upgrade now clearly aligns VeChain with this target group.

But they had already expanded with this target group in mind: When the small state of San Marino, located in northern central Italy, needed a trustworthy digital Covid certificate, the administration turned to VeChain, and San Marino received VeChain Thor as a blockchain infrastructure for the forgery-proof management of the national certificate system.

VeTrust was used for hygiene and risk management during the pandemic, which ensured clear responsibilities and a high level of transparency both at the state administration level and among the companies involved.

With VeChain, the retail chain Walmart China also received a blockchain that met its size and requirements precisely. Walmart is essentially about precisely tracking every single product, which requires tracking numerous supply chains at scale. Tens of millions of transactions were processed without any problems right from the start.

The role of Hayabusa

Hayabusa is now optimizing the rapid integration of VeChain with institutions. It makes VeChain fully MiCA compliant, a feature that is now seen as a regulatory quality standard for blockchain technology outside the EU.

This significantly increases the attractiveness of VeChain applications among potential institutional partners. So it is no coincidence that VeChain wins global brands, the public sector of states and global companies as customers.

Synergies with institutions for the benefit of customers

Customers see that they can establish different services for millions of people. The central question is no longer: “Can we trust this network?” but “What projects do we want to set up on it?”

VET investors are not left out either. They can help secure the blockchain network. “Compliance by Design” makes transparent how values ​​flow in the chain, because it is, in a sense, an open source principle as a basis for trust.

It serves both the blockchain users in their role as VeChain customers, but also their own customers, for whom the traceability of their purchased products becomes tangible.

• Dom Schiener says in the last AMA of the year: IOTA is ready for production after “Rebased”, trading adoption counts in 2026.
• Kenya to go on-chain in Q1 2026; the token should be more closely linked to real use.

IOTA founder Dom Schiener said at the end of the yearOR The goals for the next year were announced on December 18th. After the technical reset was achieved with “Rebased” in 2025, the focus should be on real adoption in 2026 so that IOTA comes out of the pure “market beta” drawer.

“I am very satisfied with the new IOTA Layer 1 because I really believe that IOTA is one of the oldest Layer 1 projects today – but without any technical legacy,” said Schiener.

“This is a big advantage because I can honestly say today: IOTA is ready for production. If we sit down at the table with a country today, I can say very confidently: We will get your millions of transactions per year or per month on the IOTA mainnet – without interruptions, without security problems and without these constant teething problems.”

Schiener made it clear that the rebase decision did not come from “tech vanity,” but because the market had changed. “We realized: You no longer compete on technology in this market. You can no longer come up with nice-sounding words and say: ‘I am now zk-Layer 2′ or Omptimistic Rollup’ – no one cares about that anymore,” he said.

“Today it’s about competing at the application level: about adoption and how much of it actually happens in a tangible way on the mainnet. And that’s exactly why we had to fundamentally change Layer 1,” said the IOTA founder.

With Rebased, three things have come together: programmable Layer 1 smart contracts, full decentralization and token utility through staking. “With Rebased we finally have smart contracts directly on Layer 1,” said Schiener.

“These smart contracts use IOTA tokens to pay fees and computing power. And we introduced the Move VM – so Move smart contracts run on IOTA Layer 1. In my opinion, Move is the most exciting language next to Solidity because it is more secure, more robust and at the same time not difficult for developers to learn.”

On decentralization, he pointed to the final farewell to the coordinator and a growing set of validators: “Now the network is completely decentralized. We are at around 80 to 100 validators,” Schiener said. “And the really exciting thing is: you can now set up a validator yourself, secure the network – you basically just need infrastructure and a bit of IOTA stake.”

Performance and scaling should underpin the “production” claim. “The network is incredibly fast – transactions are confirmed in less than a second, 400 milliseconds to be precise,” he said. “And it’s extremely scalable: we’re at more than 50,000 transactions per second that we can do.”

He announced the “Starfish” upgrade for the beginning of 2026, which will be “even more performant, more resilient and faster”.

IOTA In 2026

Schiener openly said that IOTA deliberately does not follow the usual crypto playbook of memecoins, NFT hype or broad DeFi expansion. “About a year and a half ago we said, ‘We’re going all in on trading,’” he said. “We’ve scaled back almost everything else – including a lot of classic ecosystem development – and are focusing on trade because that’s where we saw the first real validation. That’s the area where we found product-market fit.”

He describes TWIN as a product suite for trade digitization, tokenization, trade finance and stablecoin payments. “TWIN is essentially a product suite: Firstly, we digitize trade – we get rid of paper documents and put them in a digital form,” said Schiener. “We tokenize this data as assets so that it can be shared across borders. And that’s exactly where a blockchain like IOTA makes sense as a ‘single source of truth’: data is authentic, the origin is traceable, and it is tamper-proof.”

The market is large enough to structurally support IOTA: “Cross-border trade accounts for a third of global value creation – around $30 trillion per year,” said Schiener. “This is exactly the kind of market where IOTA can be used and where millions of transactions per day can arise – through shipments, digital product passports, identities and payments. I want to be a supply chain guy – I don’t want to be a crypto guy.”

Africa in focus

Schiener cited the partnership with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as the strongest adoption signal. “In my view, this was the largest adoption case in the history of IOTA, and I am incredibly proud to be part of it,” he said. “After months of conversations and presentations, we were able to convince them that IOTA should be one of their partners on the mission to digitize commerce. This is exactly the vision we had ten years ago – and now it’s actually happening.”

Operationally, it became concrete for Q1 2026: “Kenya will go live on the IOTA mainnet in the first quarter of 2026,” said Schiener. “Over the last year, we have digitized the flower trade in particular in a pilot phase. And now all commodities in Kenya will be switched on in the first quarter – then you can really say: Kenya is on-chain on IOTA.” Ghana is planned as the next step; Overall, he envisaged “three to five countries” as a realistic range for connections by 2026.

Finally, Schiener addressed the token issue. Countries would operate their own validators and stake IOTA to ensure security and neutrality – and IOTA is working on linking the token more closely to the trade ecosystem. “One of the most important pieces of work we’re doing right now is: How does the IOTA token really participate in the growth of this entire trading ecosystem?” he said. “And if we reach even one percent of global trade, I want it to be obvious to everyone: That creates X amount of value for the IOTA token itself.”

• The Federal Agency for Leap Innovations SPRIND and the Bundesdruckerei are jointly developing the federal government’s “Person Identification Data” project.
• It will serve as the core system for the EU Digital Identity Wallet. The EUDI wallet is intended to enable secure, trustworthy online transactions across the EU.

“Together with SPRIND GmbH, we are successfully working on the digital future of Germany and Europe.”

“With the productive PID provider service, Bundesdruckerei, as an expert in digital identities and secure infrastructures, is implementing a core component for the German EUDI wallet system.”

The background system creates a PID from the personal data stored in the ID card chip, which is transferred to the EUDI wallet on the respective user’s smartphone as an interoperable and legally secure digital core identity. The so-called online ID function already enables secure authentication on the Internet.

In an eIDAS reporting process, the underlying national eID system met all requirements for the highest level of trust. This function is therefore also used by the PID provider service, so that the user’s personal data can be used to securely create a PID at any time.

The PID provider service itself uses its own hardware security modules to issue the PID, which are specifically certified for processing highly sensitive data. The development results are made available as open source.

New perspectives for owners, business and administration

On this basis, holders of the EUDI wallet will be able to use their most important identity data such as first and last name, nationality, date of birth, place of birth and their registration address online for various purposes, such as applying for administrative services or opening a bank account. The PID can also be used as proof of age.

In addition, wallet holders will be able to add further personal evidence such as certificates, qualifications or authorizations based on the PID in the future. This enables secure, automated and efficient transmission, including authenticity checks, of numerous documents in the 27 EU countries – from a driving license to online booking of a rental car to digital certificates for a job application via the Internet.

Dr. Torsten Lodderstedt, lead architect of the German EUDI wallet project at SPRIND, emphasizes the wallet’s versatility:

“SPRIND is carrying out the project to implement and introduce the EUDI wallet system on behalf of the federal government. We attach great importance to the fact that EUDI wallets will be trustworthy, user-friendly and universally applicable in the interests of their owners.”

The EUDI wallet makes everyday contact with authorities and companies much easier – while at the same time controlling your own data: The EUDI wallet relies on hardware-based security, multi-factor authentication and data economy to ensure security and data protection.

Through media-free, automated transmission, the ability of public administration to act is increased, while companies benefit from the efficient processes.

• A current study by the Stuttgart Stock Exchange shows a clear divide in trust in the financial industry.
• Key insight: In Germany there are two completely different views of today’s private financial world.

Die Study The Stuttgart Stock Exchange comes to the conclusion that there are clear differentiations in relation to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, particularly based on educational qualifications and income level.

Trust in crypto and Bitcoin increases with education and income

While every second person with a high school diploma is familiar with the German financial industry, only 33 percent of those surveyed without a high school diploma are familiar with it. The gap in income becomes even more drastic:

Among high earners, 55 percent trust the financial market, while among people with lower incomes it is only 21 percent. However, KL could close the trust gap: those under 40 already regularly use Kl tools for their financial education.

50 percent of 19 to 29 year olds see Kl as an important factor in financial decisions – among those over 60 the figure is only 12 percent.

Crypto is the new gold

For investors under the age of 39, crypto has already overtaken gold as a diversification tool: among 18 to 29 year olds, 24 percent are invested in crypto – mostly Bitcoin – but only 22 percent are invested in precious metals.

The ratio is even clearer among 30 to 39 year olds: 27 percent crypto versus 24 percent gold investments. From the age of 40, the relationship reverses again.

Perhaps the most surprising finding of the study: Crypto is increasingly being viewed as a retirement planning component. 48 percent of all respondents invested in cryptocurrencies see them as a long-term investment for retirement provision – only 37 percent use crypto primarily for short-term trading.

54 percent hope for a long-term increase in value, 38 percent explicitly state that their crypto investment is for retirement provision. The image of cryptocurrencies has changed fundamentally, from a speculative object to a strategic portfolio.

From the niche to everyday life

Blockchain technologies are becoming suitable for the masses. Almost half of Germans assume that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies will be part of our everyday lives in five to ten years. This expectation is particularly clear among younger generations: 67 percent of 19 to 29 year olds and 63 percent of 30 to 39 year olds expect this; among 60 to 70 year olds it is only 23 percent.

Applications include pay-per-use models via blockchain – such as usage-based billing via smart contracts – cryptocurrencies as a means of payment in restaurants and online shops, as well as the tokenization of assets such as works of art or real estate, which makes even the smallest shares tradable.

The study on this report was carried out by the market research institute Marketagent on behalf of BISON. The study is based on 2,000 online surveys with people between the ages of 18 and 70. The sample is representative of the German population. The survey period extended from August 29, 2025 to September 11, 2025.

BISON is the Boerse Stuttgart Group’s award-winning crypto trading platform for private investors and offers reputable, fully regulated and user-friendly access to more than 50 cryptocurrencies and 2,500 securities.

• At the last ECB press conference in 2025, President Lagarde only briefly discussed key interest rates – and they will remain as they are for the time being.
• Regarding the digital euro, which is due to come in 2026, she said the ball is now in the political institutions’ court because the ECB has done its job.

The introduction of the is expected digital euro in the second half of 2026. This also corresponds to the planning for euro-backed stablecoins that fall under the European Regulation on Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA).

President Lagarde said it is crucial to promote further integration of capital markets by completing the Savings and Investment Union and the Banking Union according to an ambitious timetable and quickly adopting the regulation introducing the digital euro.

When asked whether the European Central Bank (ECB) could become a global model for assessing the importance of central bank digital currencies, Lagarde replied:

“Our goal is not to be a role model. Our goal is to ensure that in the digital age there is a currency that represents the stability anchor for the financial system.

Right now, that anchor is central bank money, which essentially has a material form: it’s the banknotes you have in your wallet. But in the digital age, it must be a digital expression of that sovereignty and a digital anchor to the purpose of the financial system we have.

So that’s what we’re aiming for, in addition to making sure it’s user-friendly, cost-effective, fast, efficient and private, that it can work online and offline.”

In the further course of the question time following the press conference, stablecoins were also discussed. They have gained significant traction around the world, but many experts see them as a threat to Europe’s monetary sovereignty and are calling for greater support for stablecoins. When asked about her position on this, Lagarde replied:

“We are fortunate in Europe to have something called MiCAR. This is the legal framework within which instruments such as stablecoins operate, can be monitored and are considered secure. So we believe that an instrument that is compliant with MiCAR represents an alternative form of payment that has its advantages and could have a business case for those issuing stablecoins.

Regarding MiCAR, however, Lagarde stated that the ECB was basically not responsible for it:

“If it complies with MiCAR, if it is organized correctly, if it has the right one-to-one guarantee for users, then I don’t need to have an opinion. The regulators need to have a look at it, those who control that the reserve actually exists.”

She also commented on the possible risks of stablecoins:

“What worries me is the situation of the multi-issuance currency for stablecoins, because without going into the details of the structure, the reserves, the settlement mechanisms and the repayment mechanism in Europe, as organized under the MiCAR, will be exposed to other currencies under which the stablecoin is issued, which could pose a threat and a burden to the provisions of the MiCAR applicable in Europe. So I think that in this particular area we need to pay very close attention to what potential risks to that system itself and for the holders of stablecoins.”

ECB board member Piero Cipollone once again commented on the digital euro. He pointed out a point that has generally barely been noticed by the public:

“A digital euro can ensure the continuity of payments during cyberattacks or power outages that disrupt traditional banking infrastructure.”

• US inflation data triggered a Bitcoin rally to almost $89,500, followed by a quick pullback and rebound.
• Dealer gamma, the ETF cost base around $83,800 and sales from long-term holders will be key factors for the next few days.

The Bitcoin price has been on another wild rollercoaster ride in the past 24 hours. After surprisingly positive inflation data was released in the US yesterday afternoon, BTC initially rallied to $89,477, only to fall to $84,481 within four hours (-4.5%).

However, what followed was just as surprising: at the time of writing, BTC recorded four green 4-hour candles in a row and was able to recover to $88,165.

These are the experts’ assessments of what matters now.

Inflation data creates a roller coaster ride for Bitcoin

The US inflation rate (YoY) was reported at 2.7% for November – lower than the previous month (3.0%) and at the same time below expectations of 3.1%. Core inflation was also expected at 3.0% but actually fell to 2.6%.

The stopped measuring everything, that’s why pic.twitter.com/PsFPKXUJuS

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 18, 2025

The subsequent Bitcoin sell-off may also have been encouraged by the fact that many market observers publicly questioned the reliability of the CPI calculation due to data collection gaps and estimates caused by the shutdown, which quickly dampened the initial euphoria.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. ranked the inflation rates via X as follows: “This is not a consistently bullish signal. It is positive for risk assets, but not enough to clear all risk-off warning flags. At its core, it is support, not a trigger.”

Meanwhile, supply-demand dynamics in the Bitcoin market appear to continue to be the driving force. Glassnode Researcher Chris Beamish writes about the supply pressure from long-term holders via X:

“Long-term BTC holders continue to sell and increase their sales, sustainably increasing supply in the market.”

At the same time, Beamish sets a clear price that should definitely be defended by the bulls: “US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold an average cost base near $83,800, with BlackRock and Fidelity slightly below. It will be interesting to see whether this cost base is defended.”

What’s next for Bitcoin?

CryptoQuant Analyst Markunn refers Meanwhile, on a recurring pattern that is relevant for today’s trading day: “Fridays have not been kind to Bitcoin recently. The most recent Friday price action was consistently rather bearish.” As the chart below shows, the Bitcoin price fell on each of the last five Fridays.

David Eng provides a medium-term roadmap via X. Seine These: By December 26th, a large portion of the gamma structure will be mined in Bitcoin’s options market. We are facing a “double” liquidity event that will wipe out 67% of all derivatives trading by December 26th.

“Tomorrow, $128 million worth of gamma contracts expire (21% of the total), removing the immediate drag that keeps us below $90,000,” writes Eng, who further argues: “Watch the $90,616 flip level. If we cross that level, the intraday shackles fall away.”

But the even more important day will be next Friday, December 26th. $287 million in Gamma expires next week. “An incredible 46.2% of all traders’ gamma exposures occur in this one day,” said Eng.

Why this is important? According to Eng, the dynamics of the options market are more important than the focus on the US spot ETF market. “Trader gamma forces are currently about 13 times stronger than ETF flows,” Eng points out. “Traders ~$507.6M vs. ETF ~$38M. This is why the market follows technical gamma levels ($85,000/$90,000) and ignores ETF volume.”

Dealer Gamma forces are currently ~13x stronger than ETF Flows

Dealer ~$507.6M
ETF ~$38M

This is why the market is obeying the technical gamma levels ($85k/$90k) and ignoring the ETF volume.

— David (@david_eng_mba) December 18, 2025