Author: admin

• VanEck expects Bitcoin consolidation in 2026.
• Declining volatility and adjusted leverage tend to suggest bottoming out.

VanEck expects Bitcoin to be a year of consolidation in 2026, rather than a new parabolic rise or a deeper crash.

In a 2026 outlook titled “Plan for 2026: Predictions from Our Portfolio Managers,” Matthew Sigel (Head of Digital Assets Research) writes that the broader crypto market “enters 2026 with mixed but constructive signals. Bitcoin fell about 80% in the last cycle, but realized volatility has since fallen by about half, implying a proportional decline of around 40% this time.”

No Bitcoin price target, but a bottom forecast

Since the Bitcoin price is already almost 35% below October’s all-time high of $126,199, VanEck assumes that the further fall is likely to be relatively small. A 40% drawdown from the all-time high could mean a cycle low around $75,000.

Additionally, Sigel relies on the historical halving cycle: “Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which typically peaks immediately after the US election, remains unchanged after peaking in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 will be a year of consolidation rather than a year of rapid rise or collapse.”

In support of this thesis, VanEck’s chief analyst highlights three other reasons: First, global liquidity is “mixed”: possible interest rate cuts could be bullish, while US liquidity tightens “a little” as AI-driven bubble worries meet a more fragile funding environment and credit spreads widen. This is rather bearish.

Secondly, leverage levels across the crypto market have reset after several “washouts” such as the October 10 crash, which is also a bullish signal. Third, Sigel observes positive on-chain signals, “even if they are not yet clear.”

However, VanEck consciously remains defensive. To its institutional clients, the asset manager recommends “a disciplined Bitcoin allocation of 1 to 3%, built up via dollar-cost averaging,” supplemented by active timing: follow-up purchases in the event of “leverage unwinds” and scale “into speculative excesses.”

2026 predictions from VanEck PMs in replies. pic.twitter.com/iWpdSobkPE

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) December 22, 2025

In addition to the macro events, VanEck addresses the increasingly loud topic of quantum computers. “We also note that Quantum Security has become an active topic within the community, and while it is not an immediate threat, any coordinated response could be similar to the early Blocksize debates.”

The key is the process: During the 2017 Blocksize Wars, “a transparent and technically rich public process attracted large numbers of new observers to the ecosystem and strengthened long-term commitment,” said Sigel.

Bitcoin miners and stablecoins

However, VanEck sees the strongest opportunities not in the Bitcoin spot market, but in the mining sector. The authors expect the “strongest opportunity” in capital-intensive competition for 2026: Miners would have to simultaneously expand hashrate and finance AI and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure. “This is pushing balance sheets to their limits and widening the cost of capital spread within the sector.”

According to VanEck, miners with hyperscaler partnerships can take out new loans on attractive terms, while second-tier operators rely on dilutive converts or “sell Bitcoin into weakness.”

VanEck speaks of “the cleanest consolidation setup since 2020 to 2021” and sees the best risk-reward profile in miners evolving into “energy-backed compute platforms” with “credible HPC economics,” cheap electricity access and advantageous financing routes.

VanEck cites stablecoins in B2B payment transactions as a second, more selective thesis: real settlement flows could improve working capital and reduce cross-border costs. However, the authors see the “most lasting” opportunity in fintech and e-commerce operators that enable adoption, rather than in broad token exposure.

• XRP is seeing significantly negative social media sentiment and is falling below the important $1.95 mark.
• The US spot XRP ETFs continue to report net inflows, although the chart picture is stressed in the short term.

Shortly before Christmas, XRP is in a classic area of ​​tension: While social sentiment data has slipped significantly into the negative again and thus historically favors a rebound, the price has lost much-noticed support at higher time levels. In parallel, inflows into US spot XRP ETFs remain green.

XRP sees extremely negative social media sentiment

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has a chart on X dividedwhich shows above-average negative sentiment on social media towards XRP. Santiment commented on X on Thursday:

“XRP is currently experiencing significantly more negative comments on social media than usual. Historically, this pattern often led to price increases. When retail investors doubt that a coin can rise, an increase becomes significantly more likely.”

The point is not a price target, but a setup: If retail becomes significantly more skeptical than usual, the XRP price has tended to recover in the past.

XRP price slips below central support

Crypto analyst “Guy on the Earth” (@guyontheearth) focuses on the zone around $1.95. He writes via

This directly links the break of a “Rectangle” structure with a technical downside target of $0.90. At the same time, he makes it clear what condition applies to a short-term easing: a price above 1.95 US dollars.

“The goal is to get back above $1.95. We tested this earlier but were rejected and another lower high has formed. Only an attack to 1.95 and a close above (on any time frame now) would turn my short-term bias back to bullish.”

His time window is narrow: He says his “best hope” is that the month doesn’t lose the zone and that XRP gets back above $1.95 “in the next 9 days”. At the same time, he emphasizes the character of the move as structurally bearish: “The chart is bearish – that cannot be explained away.”

The article is also a guide for different risk profiles:

“If you feel uncomfortable with this breakdown, sell to reduce your risk to a level you are comfortable with. Then buy back as soon as there is a close above $1.95 on the daily chart (or on the time frame you trust) – then your percentage loss in XRP will be almost negligible. However, if we fall to $0.90, you would – on the invested capital – “We are looking at another 50% loss.”

For long-oriented buyers, he names staggered zones: 1.61 US dollars, 1.42 US dollars, then 0.90 US dollars and 0.75 US dollars as an “initial breakout”.

Despite the break, he still sees bullish elements: “And it’s not all bad! We’re less than four cents away from resistance, and there continues to be a massive bullish divergence on multiple time frames that can still play out. I still believe we can recover from here – and that this breakdown could be a capitulation, like in April.”

ETF flows remain green

The third data point is the US spot XRP ETFs. After the brilliant launch of the XRP ETFs, SoSoValue data continues to show an uninterrupted series of ETF net inflows that have now lasted six weeks; Cumulative inflows are $1.25 billion and Cumulative Total Net Inflows are $1.12 billion.

Among the five spot XRP ETFs, Canary continues to defend the top position with $384.33 million in capital. In total, all ETFs have attracted a net capital of $93.57 million and $82.04 million, respectively, over the past two weeks. Yesterday, Monday, it was already 43.89 million US dollars.

At the time of writing, XRP was available $1.90 and therefore still below the important market price of $1.95.

• The core of the Council decision are two regulations: The first sets the legal framework for a potential digital euro.
• The second creates clear definitions of its online and offline versions and is intended to ensure its widespread acceptance.

The aim is to increase the autonomy of the Eurozone and thus the entire EU in payment transactions and to reduce dependence on the competing US providers Visa, Mastercard and PayPal.

Particular emphasis is placed on the need for a digital euro to be usable both online and offline. Both versions are “necessary and essential” and must be available from day one with the first issue, according to the council mandate. In doing so, the Council goes beyond previous Parliament proposals, which focused more on the offline functionality of the digital euro.

With the Council position, the trilogue negotiations with the European Parliament can now begin. This must formulate its own position precisely before the talks can start. If an agreement is reached in 2026, the digital euro could be introduced in 2029 – an ambitious schedule, but one that experts at the ECB and national central banks consider to be realistic.

For consumers and companies, the digital euro would offer an additional, government-guaranteed payment option. According to the council’s decision, cash should continue to be protected and its availability increased.

The crypto industry is watching the project closely: While cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and solid altcoins such as Ethereum or Cardano are not directly affected, a digital euro is likely to have a long-term impact on Euro stablecoins and payment service providers.

The EU initiative is intended to make European payment transactions more independent and resilient – it is by no means about displacing private crypto assets.

The Council decision brings the digital euro one step closer, but remains a major political and technical project, the final introduction of which depends on the upcoming negotiations and the decision of the European Central Bank.