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• Crypto institutions see 2026 as a year of internationally convergent regulation and restructuring.
• Blackrock sees stablecoins as future channels of global dollar payments, and Grayscale speaks of the beginning of the era of institutions.

In the USA, the “GENIUS Act” makes stablecoins regulated financial instruments, embedded in treasury flows and cross-border settlement. Grayscale calls it the beginning of the “Institutional Era.”

ETF flows replace the assumptions about the consequences of the cryptocurrency halving. For Bitcoin, a new all-time high is considered certain, and privacy tech and RWA tokenization will become structural growth drivers, at least if you follow the assumptions of the experts in the institutions.

Market restructuring expected

• Coinbase Institutional recognizes a shift in focus to market structures. Perpetual futures dominate pricing and price development, prediction markets become serious information markets, and stablecoins remain the largest real-world use case. At the same time, digital treasury structures are becoming more professional, while tokenized stocks and bonds are becoming mainstream.
• Galaxy Digital describes 2026 as the year of the RWA super cycle. Tokenized assets will become standard collateral, stablecoin volumes will overtake that of traditional payment systems, and at least one major blockchain will adopt an “enshrined revenue model.”
• ARK Invest expects an economic “Goldilocks year” with neutral inflation and acceptance by institutions as the driving force. ARK CEO Catherine Wood’s long-term goal for Bitcoin remains at $2.4 million by 2030.
• LBank Labs, CoinGecko and CoinGape see 2026 as a phase of re-institutionalization after the flash crash of 2025. DeFi becomes invisible but useful: it merges with neobanking as the industry divides into regulated gardens and sovereign platforms.
• 21Shares predicts a structurally strong but not euphoric year. Stablecoins cross the $1 trillion mark, tokenization becomes the core market, and AI agents automate capital allocation.

2026 will not be a year of hype, but rather a year of infrastructure. The crypto industry has grown up. Anyone who still relies on supposedly plausible rumors and “narratives” in 2026 will be proven wrong by the realities of the markets.

• After strange token transfers, an abrupt price drop and numerous fake listings on decentralized exchanges, Pi Network is once again under fire.
• Analysts assume an insider dump, but the Pi Core team vehemently denies all allegations and speaks of “normal mainnet migration”.

The current debate was triggered by the analysis of the on-chain observer Atlaswhich identified movements of more than 12 million PI. According to his assessment, these transfers could have been a coordinated dump that triggered the subsequent price drop of over 50%.

Atlas called Pi Network a potential “mega-rug” and spoke of one of the biggest fraud cases of the year. The allegations spread quickly on social media and increased the already growing skepticism about the project.

Pi denies it

The Pi‑Core team immediately dismissed the allegations as “false and misleading.” The transfers in question were part of the regular main net‑Migration where previously mined PI would be paid out to customers.

No team tokens were sold and all large movements were transparently marked as “migration distribution”. The criticism is based on misinterpretation and there were no fact checks.

A public statement by the Bybit CEO, who described Pi Network as a “scam” and made it clear that Pi was not listed on Bybit, caused additional explosiveness.

This statement significantly increased the damage to its reputation, especially since Pi Network had already struggled with unofficial listings and mix-ups in the past.

Now there are warnings about a new wave of fraudulent fake listings on decentralized exchanges. Several alleged “PI pairs” are not authorized and could lead to total losses.

Pi Network emphasizes that the official Pi Coin is currently not freely tradable and may only be used via verified partners as part of the enclosed or open network model.

The fake listings would take advantage of the project’s brand recognition and target inexperienced customers.

The allegations hit Pi Network at a phase in which the project is already being watched critically.

Criticism for years

For years, there have been complaints about a lack of transparency, a diffuse roadmap and the discrepancy between the claimed 60 million pioneers – miners – and the actual activity on the internet.

Previous data protection irregularities and doubts about the Pi Network mining model are also being revisited in the current debate. Whether the latest transfers are legitimate migrations or a coordinated dump remains unclear for the time being.

However, one thing is clear: the combination of price declines, contradictory statements, fake quotes and growing criticism is currently putting Pi Network under more pressure than ever.

• Unusual shortage of 10-year US Treasuries signals possible liquidity shortages and increased volatility potential for Bitcoin.
• Long-term Bitcoin holders reduce their selling pressure; the LTH supply is turning positive again, which is historically rather bullish.

At the turn of the year, two rather inconspicuous but very relevant signals come into focus: tensions in the US bond market and a noticeable change in mood among long-term Bitcoin investors (LTH). Both data points suggest that there could soon be more volatility in the market.

US Treasury Bond Shortage: What This Means for Bitcoin

The first data point comes from the bond market. As the well-known YouTuber and expert Furkan Yildirim writes on In just one week, so-called “fails” affected a volume of around $30.5 billion. This is the highest value since 2017.

Yildirim explains the mechanism like this:

“Imagine you buy something and the payment goes through, but the goods don’t arrive on time. Not because it’s broken. But because it’s difficult to get. With bonds, this happens when a certain security is suddenly in extremely high demand.”

Specifically, numerous market participants needed exactly this ten-year bond at short notice, for hedging, to close positions or for technical reasons in trading. The result: scarcity. A particularly striking detail was that investors sometimes had to pay to borrow the bond. An atypical signal indicating demand exceeding available supply.

According to Yildirim, part of the reason lies with the US Federal Reserve.

“Part of the explanation is pretty simple: The Fed has been holding fewer bonds since 2022 because it is reducing its holdings. And: If the Fed has less of this new ten-year bond in its portfolio, it can also make less of it available to the market. This reduces the freely available share,” said Yildirim.

This is relevant for Bitcoin investors because such tensions can indicate when liquidity in the financial system is becoming scarcer or more expensive. Not a crisis signal, but an environmental factor that influences risk assets. “Such friction is often an early indicator that something is becoming tighter in the financial system,” explains Yildirim, adding the connection to Bitcoin:

“Bitcoin reacts strongly to liquidity. When there is enough leeway in the system, risky assets often perform better. When things get tight, things can quickly become unsettled. This bond shortage is not a direct Bitcoin trigger. But it is an example of how technical bottlenecks suddenly become visible in the background.”

Long-term Bitcoin holders are accumulating again

The second data point comes directly from the Bitcoin on-chain space. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju refers to an analysis by analyst Darkfrost (@Darkfost_Coc), which shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have recently significantly reduced their selling pressure.

In his analysis, the CryptoQuant expert eliminated disturbing effects, in particular the movement of around 800,000 BTC from Coinbase, and discovered a bullish signal.

Darkfrost explains via X:

“Since July 16th, the monthly change in LTH supply (30-day total) was clearly in a distribution phase until recently. In other words, the proportion of the supply held by LTHs has been steadily declining for months. Now we have returned to positive territory – around 10,700 BTC have moved into long-term held coins.”

While it’s only a moderate shift so far, “historically, such shifts have often preceded the formation of consolidation phases – or even bullish recovery moves, depending on how the overarching trend evolves,” said the on-chain analyst.

Taken together, both data points do not indicate an immediate trigger for strong price movements, but provide important contextual information for the new year, especially for market participants who are keeping an eye on the mechanics in the background alongside central bank policy and technical analysis. As CNF reported yesterday, the vast majority of experts are bullish for 2026.

• Pi Network will release around 134 million PI tokens in January. It is probably the largest token unlock of its development to date.
• Compared to this, the December release of 8.7 million tokens can be classified more as a technical stress test.

The planned release of around 134 million PI tokens marks a significant jump compared to the December event, which served more as a technical stress test with 8.7 million tokens. The background is the emission-based architecture of the project: tokens are only released when certain network and activity thresholds are reached.

This includes the now more than 60 million registered users, known as “Pioneers,” as well as over 15 million successfully migrated mainnet accounts. The developers use this to control the controlled opening of the system, which gradually creates liquidity without overwhelming the network.

Importance for investors

For customers in the DACH region, who mostly see Pi Network as a project with a potential Web3 perspective, the activation primarily means an expansion of internal use. Trading in PI has so far only been possible to a limited extent, and therefore the market impact depends less on the additional supply than on the question of how quickly good, real applications emerge.

An ambivalent picture emerges for investors: On the one hand, the amount of tokens in circulation increases, which can theoretically lead to dilution. But the system is growing at the same time – for example through increasing validator activity, new app integrations and the increasing number of onchain transactions.

The decisive factor will be whether Pi Network continues its path to the open mainnet in a controlled manner and whether the community uses the additional tokens productively. An uncontrolled price impulse is unlikely in the short term due to limited tradability, but in the long term everything depends on actual adoption.

Plans and goals for 2026

The timing of the activation was well chosen. Pi Network has been in a transition phase since 2025, gradually opening the closed mainnet to real economic activity. The developers consciously rely on the step-by-step process to keep the network stable and at the same time prepare the community for the next development stage.

The January event is therefore seen as a “maturity test”: If the network succeeds in absorbing the 134 million tokens in a similarly stable manner as the tokens released in December, confidence in the long-term token economy is likely to grow.

The release is a crucial moment for investors in German-speaking countries. It shows whether Pi Network actually manages to make the step from an ambitious community project to a resilient Web3 system – or whether the structural challenges are greater than the vision.

• Spot XRP and spot Bitcoin ETFs see inflows as Fed minutes signal timely rate cuts in 2026 are less likely.
• In the crypto sector, market shares (Perps-DEX race) are shifting as companies continue to aggressively accumulate BTC/ETH.

Even at the end of the year, the crypto market does not stand still. Below are the 12 most important news stories from the last 24 hours.

1) Spot XRP ETFs: 29 days of inflows in a row

The American spot XRP ETFs continue their inflow streak to 29 days, even though sentiment in the crypto market is currently in the basement. According to SoSoValueData The cumulative net inflows since launch are around $1.15 billion and the net assets are around $1.24 billion.

Yesterday, Tuesday, the XRP ETFs attracted $15.55 million in capital, and on Monday it was $8.44 million. Even on December 24th it was $11.93 million. The data suggests a steady but not euphoric allocation.

2) Fed Minutes: 25 basis points in 9-3 vote

The December Fed Minutes paint a picture of heightened internal tensions: the 25 basis point move came in a 9-3 vote on 9/10. December through.

Not only inflation versus the labor market was discussed, but also the question of how close policy is to neutral interest rates. Several participants described the decision as a “close call,” which increases sensitivity to new data. The internals of the protocol are relevant for the crypto market in that the hurdles for the next interest rate cut have increased.

3) Don’t rush for more cuts

The tenor repeatedly appears in the Minutes that interest rates could remain unchanged “for some time” while we wait to see the effect of the steps taken so far. Accordingly, the chances of an early cut in 2026 fell after publication.

CME FedWatch Ocean Tool The majority does not expect the first interest rate cut in 2026 until April. For the first meeting at the end of January, the chances are around 82% that the Fed will leave interest rates at 3.5-3.75%. There is around a 46% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the end of March meeting.

4) Perps-DEX race: Lighter passes Hyperliquid

The DEX “Lighter” reported around $200 billion in 30-day volume, overtaking competitors such as Hyperliquid. According to DefiLlama data, Aster and Hyperliquid were in the same window below.

The jump coincided with the launch of the LIT token, an indication that incentives and launch dynamics can quickly redirect volumes. What will be crucial is whether Lighter can stabilize this level without acute token incentives.

5) BitMine buys 32,938 ETH

BitMine Immersion Technologies continues its buying spree. According to data from Nansen, the Tom Lee-led company purchased an additional 32,938 ETH for around $97.6 million. The company’s total ETH holdings are approximately 4.07 million ETH.

6) Tom Lee (CNBC): S&P -10 to -15% in Q1 2026, then recovery in Q3

In a CNBC interview, Lee explained that US stocks could see a 10-15% decline in the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, he expects the markets to “come back” later in the year, with a noticeable recovery towards Q3.

This is particularly relevant for crypto because beta assets often correlate more strongly in phases of stress, but also react disproportionately in phases of recovery. The call is therefore less crypto-specific than a macro framework for risk-on/risk-off.

TOM LEE ON CNBC: 2026 SETUP

2026 could mirror 2025 volatility.

Q1:
• S&P may drop 10–15%
• Delayed Fed cuts
• Policy uncertainty
• Tariff conflicts
• AI skepticism

Q3:
• Strong recovery
• Year-end markets likely higher

Takeaway for crypto:
Volatility creates… pic.twitter.com/0EmUFSsvfI

— Crypto Tice (@CryptoTice_) December 30, 2025

7) Metaplanet buys Bitcoin again

Metaplanet upped the ante at the end of the year and purchased 4,279 BTC at a cost of around $451 million. This reportedly brought the total holdings to 35,102 BTC, in the region of around $3 billion in market value.

8) Trump Media: Five Truth Social ETFs launch on the NYSE

Trump Media & Technology Group joined Yorkville in bringing five America-First/Made in America ETFs to the NYSE. The range includes, among other things, products for Defense/Security, Frontier Tech, “Icons”, Energy and REIT Focus, each under Truth Social branding. Further ETFs, including crypto products, have been announced for 2026.

9) Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing inflows

On December 30, US spot Bitcoin ETFs turned positive again after seven consecutive days of net outflows points SoSoValue +$355.1 million. Drivers included BlackRock (US$143.75 million) and Ark/21Shares (US$109.56 million), each with high positive daily values.

10) South Korea postpones crypto law – dispute over stablecoins

South Korea’s “Digital Asset Basic Act” stalls; the submission is now expected in 2026. According to reports, the core of the conflict is who is allowed to issue won-linked stablecoins and which authority has supervisory authority: Financial Services Commission versus Bank of Korea. The period of regulatory uncertainty is extended for the local market.

11) Grayscale files S-1 for Bittensor product

Grayscale filed a Form S-1 with the SEC on Dec. 30 that seeks to enable a U.S.-listed product with TAO exposure. In the filing, the “Grayscale Bittensor Trust (TAO)” is described as a Delaware trust whose shares are intended to track the TAO price.

12) Russia: Justice Ministry wants prison sentences for illegal mining

Russia’s Ministry of Justice presented a draft that would address unauthorized or unregistered crypto and Bitcoin mining in a tougher criminal law. Fines of up to millions of rubles as well as forced labor are mentioned; According to reports, in more serious cases, prison sentences of several years are envisaged. The move follows the trend of tolerating mining as an industry, but strictly binding it to registration and reporting obligations.

• Yesterday there was a disruption in the online banking of several major banks in Germany. Deutsche Bank, Postbank, Norisbank and Commerzbank were affected.
• Customer login was not possible for hours. According to official information, the cause was a technical malfunction on the Deutsche Bank Group’s shared IT platform.

Between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m., thousands of customers were unable to log into their accounts. Because many customers then tried telephone banking, this quickly became overloaded. However, ATMs and card payments continued to work. However, online transfers, account balance inquiries and app access were blocked. The problem was resolved in the afternoon.

Reason for concern?

Technically speaking, these are central failures – so-called “single points of failure”. They are not absolutely safety-critical, but can still have extremely unpleasant consequences:

Late payments, no access to urgently needed liquidity, missed deadlines. This can be a threat to the existence of companies and self-employed people who rely on real-time payment transactions.

Things become critical when such disruptions occur in combination with security gaps or attacks – for example through DDoS attacks or compromised authentication systems.

Can this also happen with crypto systems?

It can, but not like this. Although blockchain databases are distributed systems, i.e. decentralized both physically and organizationally, many altcoins and L2 networks use central cloud services – and they usually are not.

Many will still remember the outage of Amazon’s AWS cloud on October 19th of this year. Polygon, Base, MetaMask and Coinbase were disrupted for hours.

The incident showed that, despite blockchain technology, many crypto projects depend heavily on central infrastructure – and if that fails, the most beautiful, regularly praised dentralization is of no use. Incidentally, Bitcoin remained largely unaffected – evidence of its robust decentralization.

Failures are possible in both worlds

In classic banking they usually arise from central IT problems, in cryptocurrencies from external infrastructure dependencies and their problems. If you are looking for maximum reliability, you have to pay attention to real decentralization – and to redundant, that is to say, accesses that are implemented in different technical ways. Unfortunately, this is very expensive and that is why it is the exception.

There is an official statement from Deutsche Bank on the current incident. A spokesman for the bank said:

“Access to online accounts of Deutsche Bank, Postbank and Norisbank was temporarily restricted on Monday. The cause was a technical malfunction. The malfunction was resolved in the afternoon. In some cases, a second login attempt may be necessary. We ask customers for their understanding of the inconvenience caused.”

The bank did not disclose any further technical details, but the fact that several banks in the group were affected at the same time clearly points to a key infrastructure problem. According to media reports, the disruption was largely resolved by around 1:30 p.m.