Author: admin

• Bitcoin fell as low as $86,074 on Sunday: thin liquidity, stops below $88,000 and a long flush accelerated the downward move.
• The trigger was a sudden jump in the shutdown probability on Polymarket; There were also high liquidations and a defensive stancees TradFi-Sentiment.

The Bitcoin price fell to as low as $86,074 on Sunday, January 25th, after hovering around $89,900 on Saturday and closing at just over $89,000 at the end of the day. The decline of around 4 percent over the weekend initially seemed like a classic “weekend flush”, but had clearly identifiable triggers from macro and derivatives markets.

Why did the Bitcoin price fall?

The trigger came from Washington: On Polymarket, the shutdown probability for the end of January jumped significantly within hours. On X, the jump was largely interpreted as a short-term negative factor for Bitcoin. Jim Bianco wrote:

“The chart below shows Polymarket’s bet on another government shutdown on January 31st. It has risen from 9% to 74% today in response to the Border Patrol shooting in Minneapolis. The thought is that this event could encourage Senate Democrats to block passage via filibuster (thereby shutting down the government) to defund ICE/CBP or significantly alter its current mission.”

To put it into perspective: A “Continuing Resolution” on November 12th ended the shutdown that had been running since September 30th, but it expires on January 30th. The House of Representatives passed the next budget step on January 22nd, in the Senate the passage was previously treated as a formality, “but now there are questions” as to whether the dynamic is changing; In addition, a major winter storm could delay return trips for senators and further compress the schedule.

Zerohedge (@zerohedge) wrote via X: “Bitcoin algos took 24 hours to receive news of the shutdown.” Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson commented thereupon:

“I said the same thing yesterday and last weekend. That shows the apathy in [Bitcoin]that it takes so long to react to obviously bad news. In both cases, I had almost all day to short clearly negative news. Strange market behavior. Are there no sellers anymore?”

The news hit the typical weekend setup: thin order books and low liquidity. With the break of the $88,000 zone, stops took effect; There were also liquidations on the derivatives market.

According to Coinglass, liquidations in the last 24 hours total $750.77 million, of which $579.27 million were longs and $171.50 million were shorts. This included $274 million in ETH, $207 million in BTC, $64 million in SOL and around $60.6 million in other tokens. A clear “long flush”: liquidations force sales, which act as market orders in the falling movement and drive it further.

At the same time, the sentiment on the TradFi markets changed: due to the uncertainty from the USA, futures weakened, gold benefited again and rose above $5,000 for the first time (another record high).

Added to this is a week full of market-moving events, including the market reaction to Trump’s 100% Canada tariff threat and the increased shutdown chances, the Fed interest rate decision and press conference on Wednesday, the quarterly figures from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday and the PPI inflation data for December on Friday. In such “risk-off” moments, Bitcoin is often sold.

Bitcoin recovery sustainable?

This Monday there was a recovery to $88,424 (intraday high), but the setup remains fragile. The renowned German YouTuber Furkan Yildirim classifies the bounce as follows: “Futures-CVD (orange): recently flat/sideways – the derivatives provide little additional buying flow. Spot-CVD (gray): recently with a clearly positive slope – the bounce is carried by the spot market. Open interest: slightly recovered after the flush and sideways – cautious rebuilding, no aggressive risk-on.”

Yildirim names concrete conditions for short-term viability: He sees sustainability as “medium” and links it to continued positive spot CVD, controlled increasing open interest and ideally stable to neutral funding; If the spot CVD turns down or the OI rises when funding increases without price progress, the risk of a setback increases.

CryptoQuant Contributor Axel Adler Jr. points However, there is a warning signal:

“Net realized profit/loss has fallen by 97% and is back to zero. The last time this happened was in June 2022 – just before the collapse from $30,000 to $16,000. Large investors (whales) are still in the black (with a buffer of 25-80%), so there is no panic yet. However, the market is not supported by buyers, but by the absence of sellers.”

• The situation in the USA is causing unrest in Berlin. Critics warn that Germany would not get its gold if Washington decided to block access.
• The FDP politician Strack‑Zimmermann is therefore calling for the gold to be returned from the USA and is demanding a clear risk assessment from the federal government.

Germany holds around 3,350 tons of gold second largest gold reserve in the world. Of these, 1,236 are stored in the US central bank branch in New York. During the Cold War, quick dollar convertibility and proximity to Wall Street were an advantage.

The Cold War may be gone now, but the gold is still there – power of habit. But that could now turn out to be colossal stupidity given the wandering resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The critics’ arguments: The Storage of gold reserves abroad is an unnecessary geopolitical risk and endangers Germany’s economic independence. The limited options for physically checking the stocks – audits are only possible in strictly controlled samples – also raise doubts about the actual control over the gold.

Stability at the price of dependency?

Die German Bundesbank However, points out the advantages of international storage. The New York Central Bank branch has been considered a reliable custodian for decades, and its proximity to global trading centers enables quick transactions in the event of a crisis. In addition, geographical spread is a safety factor. That’s why another 405 tons of Bundesbank gold are at the Bank of England in London.

But these arguments become less convincing as geopolitical tensions grow. The question of whether Germany could actually freely dispose of its reserves in an emergency remains unanswered.

The sovereignty question

The debate about gold has long since become more than a technical question of warehouse logistics. It touches on fundamental questions of sovereignty, transatlantic relations and strategic preparedness. In a world where economic power is increasingly used as political leverage, relying on a foreign depository seems to many to be an unnecessary risk.

If the federal government initiates a repatriation, the next crisis could arise between Berlin and Washington. By the way, the same question is currently also being asked for Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and Austria.

They also have more or less large parts of their gold reserves in the basement of the central bank in New York.

• The Europol report on the “priority of migrating post-quantum cryptography into financial services” is classic official gibberish and trivializes how urgently financial institutions need to overhaul their security systems – now.
• Although quantum computers do not yet have the computing power required to break common encryption methods, you do not need quantum computers to steal and illegally store the data that will be hacked in the future today.

The time when banks and other financial service providers could view the threat of quantum computing as a future scenario is over. Although there are currently no quantum computers that can break classic encryption in real time, the risk of a criminal “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy is growing.

Attackers collect already encrypted financial data to later decrypt it using more powerful machines. For an industry whose business model is based on trust and data security, this creates an immediate need to take action.

Potentially affected institutions must act today

Most cryptographic methods currently in use – such as RSA and elliptic curves – are not secure against a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. But Europol emphasizedthat financial institutions are not allowed to react until quantum attacks are possible in practice. It is mainly about master data that can be current for an entire generation and in several contexts at the same time.

The transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is complex, primarily affects mid-range systems and requires long lead times. In addition, companies must ensure that their data remains protected retroactively. The threat situation is worsening because criminals, but also state actors, are already accessing encrypted data on a large scale, the cryptography of which is still secure today, but will be decrypted tomorrow or the day after.

The financial industry must therefore develop strategies at an early stage to ensure the integrity, confidentiality and availability of its systems in the long term.

Measures

Financial service providers can take steps now to be prepared against future quantum attacks. This initially includes a comprehensive inventory of all cryptographic processes in the company.

Only those who know where which algorithms are used can realistically assess future risks. Institutes should test hybrid encryption models that combine classical and post-quantum-proof methods. Such interim solutions allow the systems to be gradually modernized without endangering operational stability. Equally important is the introduction of a “crypto-agility” approach.

This means: Security architectures must be designed in such a way that algorithms can be flexibly replaced as soon as new standards are established. In addition, close cooperation with regulatory authorities, technology providers and industry initiatives is recommended in order to benefit from best practices and certification processes at an early stage.

And finally, companies should start training their staff immediately, because the transition to the post-quantum era must begin now, and it is not only a technical but also an organizational change that must take place simultaneously and while operations continue.

But at some point a US prosecutor had enough. Binance-US was forcibly shut down and Zhao ended up in custody, facing the prospect of a 20-year stay in a US federal prison.

EU MiCA application in Greece

• IOTA founder Dominik Schiener is changing the strategic direction of IOTA, with a focus on the $35 trillion global trade.
• His focus is on digital identity, tokenization, the TWIN platform project and onchain infrastructure. His goal: to establish IOTA as a neutral network for global trade.

IOTA founder Schiener diagnoses a structural crisis in global trade: It forms the backbone of the global economy, but its infrastructure is paradoxically in a state that is more reminiscent of the 20th century than of the digital age. Despite an annual volume of over $35 trillion, supply chains, banks, logistics service providers and government agencies continue to rely on paper-based documents, manual review processes and siled IT systems.

This fragmentation leads to enormous frictional losses. Border clearance often takes weeks because documents are physically transported, copied multiple times and checked by different authorities. The lack of transparency creates distrust between trading partners, which in turn leads to excessive collateral, high financing costs and a global trade finance deficit of several trillion dollars.

You give the IOTA-Manifest describes this situation as a systemic weakness that not only inhibits efficiency, but also endangers the resilience of global supply chains. In a world increasingly characterized by geopolitical tensions, climate change and economic shocks, this aging infrastructure is becoming a strategic risk.

IOTA as a trustworthy digital trading structure

Against this background, the manifesto presents IOTA as a neutral, open and scalable infrastructure that aims to lead global trade into a digital, interoperable and forgery-proof future. The authors emphasize that IOTA should not be understood as another crypto project competing for attention in the speculative market.

Instead, IOTA positions itself as a technological base layer that maps identities, documents, goods and financial flows onchain, thereby creating a common, immutable source of truth. This architecture is intended to structurally solve the central problems of world trade – lack of transparency, inefficient processes, lack of interoperability.

The manifesto points to specific applications that are already in use: The TWIN framework enables the digital mapping of trade documents on the IOTA mainnet, while projects in the African Free Trade Area and the United Kingdom show how regulatory processes, customs clearance and supply chain management can be accelerated through onchain technology.

IOTA acts as a neutral intermediary between companies, governments and financial institutions without exercising control over data or processes. This neutrality is highlighted as a key advantage as it creates trust and forms the basis for a global, interoperable infrastructure.

Vision of an onchain global economy

In the final part, the manifesto creates an ambitious vision of the future that goes far beyond technological optimization. It describes a global economy in which all trade processes – from identity verification and documentation to financing and customs clearance – are digitally, transparently and immutably mapped onchain. This scenario creates a global network that is not only more efficient, but also fairer and more resilient.

Schiener argues that even a small proportion of the over two billion cross-border shipments annually would generate enormous onchain activity, which in turn would structurally anchor demand for the IOTA token. In this vision, the token is not viewed as a speculative asset, but rather as a functional component of a global infrastructure that reflects real economic processes.

The manifesto sets out the goal of bringing a significant proportion of global trade onchain within a decade, ushering in a new era in which efficiency, transparency and trust are no longer hindered by outdated systems. This vision is deliberately big, but it is underpinned by real pilot projects, institutional partnerships and a clear strategic direction.