MLB Playoff Preview 2026: Executive and Scout Poll Reveals World Series Favorites and Sleepers
As the 2026 MLB regular season concludes, the race for the World Series remains wide open. While the National League boasts a deeper collection of contenders than the American League, that disparity disappears once the Fall Classic begins. To gauge the postseason landscape, ESPN surveyed a panel of 16 executives and scouts — none affiliated with contending teams — asking which clubs are the teams to beat in each league and which underdogs could surprise.
Last year’s consensus sleeper pick, the Seattle Mariners, fell one game short of the World Series. They are absent from this year’s poll entirely, as they are unlikely to reach the postseason. While no single sleeper emerged as a consensus choice to win it all, the panel agreed on an underdog in each league.
National League: Milwaukee Brewers Voted Team to Beat
Voting in the NL was tight, mirroring last year’s split. The Milwaukee Brewers edged out the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, earning five votes to the Dodgers’ four and the Phillies’ four. The Chicago Cubs received one vote.
Despite Milwaukee’s 2025 NLCS loss to the Dodgers, voters doubled down on the Brewers for one primary reason: pitching. Insiders say the staff is even stronger than a year ago. While the team ERA is similar, the top of the rotation and the bullpen rank among the game’s best.
Why the Brewers?
“The Brewers’ offense — especially at home — can hang with anyone. They even hit home runs there. With home-field advantage, I don’t worry about them scoring. But it’s Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson that give me more confidence this time around than last year when I picked them. That one-two combo can hang with the Dodgers.”
“I like the Brewers. Their young players don’t ever seem fazed by the moment. And there could be some weakness with the Dodgers if [Shohei] Ohtani can’t be himself [and pitch]. Milwaukee is just a little bit better in all phases plus has more pitching than a year ago. Miz can match up with anyone.”
Biggest Threats to Milwaukee
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies returned most of their 2025 roster, giving Bryce Harper another shot at his first championship. Philadelphia reached the World Series in 2022, and several voters believe this group can break through.
“Unfortunately, we faced the Phillies more recently, instead of early in the season when they were going bad. They pitched really well. I know how good the Dodgers and Brewers are, but I’m not betting against [Cristopher] Sanchez, [Zack] Wheeler and [Jesus] Luzardo — not to mention Bryce and [Kyle] Schwarber. They’re one team that doesn’t HAVE to have the bye because of those pitchers. Remember, they’ve been as good as anyone for a long time now.”
Los Angeles Dodgers: The perennial contenders drew votes based on track record and roster construction.
“I’m not picking against the Dodgers. They’ve played it perfectly this year in terms of pressing down on the gas when needed and then backing off. As long as they get a bye, they’re in great shape. It would be one thing if they exhausted themselves just getting into the postseason, but from day one, they’ve seemingly had this three-peat in mind.”
Chicago Cubs: One voter highlighted Chicago’s balanced roster.
“I’ll take the Cubs. First in offense, first in defense and a No.1-type starter in Clay Holmes. I know they just had bullpen problems, but as long as they keep the ball in the park, the Cubs will always have a chance.”
NL Sleeper: San Diego Padres Emerge as Consensus Pick
The Padres earned seven votes as the NL sleeper, ahead of the Cubs (four), Atlanta Braves (two), and Arizona Diamondbacks (one). Like the Brewers, San Diego’s case rests on pitching. Since acquiring Casey Mize and Robbie Ray at the trade deadline, the Padres have posted the NL’s best ERA. An elite bullpen anchored by Mason Miller completes the profile of a dangerous postseason team — if they qualify.
“For me, San Diego is the perfect sleeper team. They’re better now than they have been all season, but because they’ve been fighting for a playoff spot and have no chance at the division, it doesn’t feel like people are talking about them. Their last-second grab of Mize and Ray might be [general manager AJ] Preller’s best work if they go far. And it just seems like everyone who was slumping in the first half is hot now.”
“Jackson Merrill is going good. So is that bullpen. They’re my sleeper pick.”
The Cubs appeared in both the favorite and sleeper categories, reflecting their volatility: a record-setting August followed a 10-game May losing streak. Their ceiling depends on bullpen stability, but depth, defense, and a veteran rotation give them a path to a deep run.
American League: New York Yankees the Clear Choice
In the AL, voting concentrated heavily on the New York Yankees, who received the most support after Aaron Judge returned from a three-month injury absence. The Tampa Bay Rays earned four votes and the Boston Red Sox three, but the Yankees’ health has unified the panel.
Some voters noted that if the Yankees fail to win the AL East, a wild-card series against Boston could eliminate them early, leaving the Rays or Red Sox as the league’s top team.
Why the Yankees?
“I love the Yankees now. Judge is back. [Carlos] Rodon is back. Even without [Giancarlo] Stanton, that offense is dangerous, especially at Yankee Stadium. [Max] Fried hasn’t been going deep in games, but they have so much pitching, they may not need him to. And anyone who hasn’t seen Cam Schlittler pitch is in for a treat.”
“The Yankees have been the best team in the AL all season, they just didn’t know it. Does that make sense? The injuries are the only thing that’s held them back. They just have every key ingredient for the postseason.”
Biggest Threats to New York
Tampa Bay Rays: Tampa Bay owned the AL’s best record for most of the season.
“I’m taking the Rays thinking maybe the Yankees and Red Sox exhaust themselves a little playing each other in the first round. I mean, the Rays have been the best team in the AL all season and I love the top of their order. And I’ll take Bryan Baker up against anyone, including Aroldis Chapman. His fastball/changeup combo is great.”
Boston Red Sox: Boston’s pitching depth makes them dangerous in a short series.
“I like the amount of arms the Red Sox can put out there in a playoff series. And then once you get to the back of a game, they’re lights out with [Garrett] Whitlock and Chapman. I think they’re best positioned to win from the wild-card teams. They’ll keep the Yankees in the park when they play in the first round.”
AL Sleeper: Houston Astros Win by Default
The Houston Astros received seven votes as the AL sleeper, followed by the Chicago White Sox (three) and Toronto Blue Jays (one). However, several voters expressed low confidence in any AL sleeper, describing their choice as a forced selection.
Houston’s postseason pedigree likely tipped the scales. The White Sox, once a trendy sleeper, have faded, while the Blue Jays — last year’s World Series finalist — are not currently in a playoff position.
“I can’t pick the White Sox anymore. I would have a month ago. So Houston is about the only choice left for a sleeper. It’s not an easy case to make, but Yordan Alvarez can change a series by himself, while Josh Hader is as good as ever right now. I just don’t know about the rest of their pitching, but Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert could carry the day. Hayden Wesneski has been excellent.”
“The Astros are not great, but they have pedigree. I think Hayden Wesneski could be a guy for them in October. His sweeper is really good right now. They have some home run power outside of Alvarez, which could surprise teams in October.”
“If the White Sox can get just a little starting pitching, they could still make some noise. They have a bullpen. That’s always a need in the playoffs. And they can hit home runs. They just haven’t lately. I like them as a sleeper, assuming [Davis] Martin or [Sean] Burke are good.”
If a team outside the AL East trio of New York, Tampa Bay, and Boston emerges from the American League, it will truly define the sleeper label this October.