Frances Tiafoe, the No. 11-ranked player in the 2026 U.S. Open, begins his tournament Monday night against fellow American Martin Damm Jr.
The matchup marks the second consecutive year that Damm and Tiafoe have met at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Tiafoe won their 2025 meeting in the Round of 64.
After reaching at least the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open in three straight years, Tiafoe was eliminated in the third round in 2025. He will look to return to his best form in 2026.
Damm, meanwhile, is making only the fourth Grand Slam appearance of his career. He reached the second round at Wimbledon earlier this year.
Oddsmakers have installed Tiafoe as the favorite, but his moneyline is only -382 to advance—a shorter price than some other highly ranked players. That raises the question of whether Damm has a realistic chance to pull off an upset.
Here is a look at the betting odds, each player’s U.S. Open history and a prediction for Monday’s first-round match.
Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Martin Damm Jr.: +279
- Frances Tiafoe: -382
- Total: 40.5 (Over -115/Under -130)
How to Watch Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe
- Date: Monday, Aug. 31
- Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
- TV: ESPN2
Head-to-Head History and U.S. Open Performance
Damm and Tiafoe have met once before, in the 2025 U.S. Open. Tiafoe won in four sets, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 7-5.
Martin Damm Jr.
Damm does not have an extensive U.S. Open history, but he reached the second round in his tournament debut in 2025. The 22-year-old recently advanced to the Round of 16 at the Winston-Salem Open, although he was eliminated in qualifying at the Cincinnati Masters.
Damm took a set from Tiafoe in their first meeting, which helps explain why he is priced around +275 to win the match outright.
Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe has performed better at the U.S. Open than at any other Grand Slam tournament during his career. He has reached the quarterfinals three times and the semifinals twice at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
By comparison, he has made only two other Grand Slam quarterfinals across the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon.
Following his early exit in 2025, Tiafoe enters this year’s U.S. Open after reaching the final of the Cincinnati Masters.
Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction
Tiafoe’s record at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center is difficult to overlook.
The 28-year-old reached at least the quarterfinals in three consecutive years and is coming off a strong performance at the Cincinnati Masters. He appears slightly undervalued against Damm, who has limited Grand Slam experience and is 9-12 across 21 matches in 2026.
Tiafoe has not reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal in 2026, but he has advanced to at least the third round in all three major tournaments played so far this year. He should advance against Damm, although the moneyline does not offer much value.
The set spread provides a better option, with Tiafoe priced at -175 to win 3-0 or 3-1.
Damm could take a set from Tiafoe on Monday night, as he did at the 2025 U.S. Open. However, Tiafoe is the more experienced player and should win in three or four sets. The set spread offers additional cushion while keeping Tiafoe at a more manageable -175 price.
Pick: Tiafoe -1.5 sets (-175 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Source: www.si.com