Key Highlights:
- US spot Solana ETFs recorded $188 million in combined net inflows over the five trading sessions through Sept. 25.
- Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade is being tested on the public devnet and testnet, targeting transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds.
- $SOL is trading near $121.11, with a move above $124.95-$125 potentially opening the way toward $130 and, later, the $140-$145 region.
Solana ETF inflows and Alpenglow testing support the $SOL market
Institutional demand remains one of the main factors supporting Solana’s recent market performance. US spot Solana ETFs recorded a combined $188 million in net inflows during the five trading sessions through Sept. 25, according to SoSoValue data. The inflows have arrived as development progresses on Alpenglow, one of Solana’s largest planned network upgrades.
Alpenglow is now running on both Solana’s public devnet and testnet. These environments allow developers to test applications before the proposed consensus changes reach the mainnet. The upgrade is designed to replace TowerBFT with the Votor consensus system and targets transaction finality of approximately 150 milliseconds, down from roughly 12.8 seconds under the existing system.
Solana has not confirmed a mainnet launch date for Alpenglow, and the 150-millisecond target has not yet been demonstrated under live market conditions. Testing therefore remains a critical stage before the upgrade can deliver the performance targeted by developers.
Solana stablecoin supply reaches a record $17.3 billion
Liquidity within the Solana ecosystem has also been rising. Stablecoin supply on the network reached a record $17.3 billion on Sept. 25, approximately $600 million above the previous high recorded in August, according to DefiLlama figures.
Solana remained the third-largest blockchain by stablecoin supply, behind Ethereum and Tron. $USDC accounted for roughly $8.4 billion of Solana’s total stablecoin supply. The number of Solana wallets holding $USDC also increased from around 8.1 million on Aug. 10 to more than 9.3 million by Sept. 25.
ETF inflows are therefore occurring while $SOL trades close to its highest levels since the latest rally began, Alpenglow testing continues, and stablecoin balances on Solana remain near record levels.
Can $SOL break above $125?
$SOL’s daily chart shows the token recovering from the $72-$75 region in August to around $120 at the time of writing. The move has produced a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since mid-August, although the price stalled below $125 after reaching that area in late September.
$SOL/$USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.
The Elder Force Index remains positive after rising sharply during the August and September rally. Its latest reading is around 4.38 million, above the central reading near 3.17 million but below recent highs above 7 million. A positive EFI reading indicates that buying force remains present, while the retreat from the latest high suggests buyers are not exerting the same pressure seen during the strongest phase of the move.
$SOL would need another increase in buying force to support a clean break above the late-September high. The nine-day Rate of Change offers a similar signal. ROC remains positive at 1.75%, meaning $SOL is still trading above its level nine days earlier, but momentum has cooled significantly from readings above 20% during parts of September.
Holding above $120 while ROC remains above zero would keep the recent upward structure intact. Conversely, a move below zero accompanied by a loss of the $116-$118 area would indicate that short-term momentum had turned negative.
Technical levels show $124.95 as the immediate breakout point
On the four-hour chart, the immediate breakout level is $124.95, the upper boundary of the 20-period Donchian Channel. $SOL is currently trading near $121.11, while the channel midpoint is at $120.64 and the lower boundary is at $116.32.
$SOL/$USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.
$SOL has moved back above the $120.64 midpoint after recovering from below $118. A four-hour close above $124.95