Daily News 19

Tag: Scott Bessent

  • Bitcoin ETFs Erase $5.8 Billion Hole

    Bitcoin ETFs Erase $5.8 Billion Hole

    Key Highlights

    • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reversed a $5.8 billion year-to-date deficit to post nearly $800 million in net inflows, per SoSoValue data.
    • Nearly $4 billion of inflows arrived after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August announcement of increased bond purchases amid surging yields.
    • Despite a six-day winning streak, 2025 inflows remain far below the $35.2 billion recorded in 2024 and $21.4 billion in 2025 full-year totals.

    Bitcoin ETFs Stage Dramatic Turnaround as Net Inflows Turn Positive for 2025

    Investors in U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have engineered a remarkable reversal. After sitting on a staggering $5.8 billion year-to-date outflow as recently as July 13, according to CoinDesk’s analysis of SoSoValue data, the funds now boast nearly $800 million in net inflows for the year. The swing coincides with Bitcoin’s price recovery to approximately $85,000 from a June low below $58,000, a movement that has led several analysts to declare a new bull market is already underway.

    Liquidity Injection Catalyzes $4 Billion Inflow Surge

    The inflection point aligns closely with a pivotal macroeconomic shift. Since U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August announcement detailing increased bond purchases—a liquidity management tool deployed as bond yields climbed to multi-year highs—nearly $4 billion has flowed into the ETF complex. This policy-driven liquidity expansion appears to have provided the tailwind necessary to overcome the persistent selling pressure that defined the first half of the year.

    Six-Day Winning Streak Tests Resistance at $85,000

    Momentum remains visible in recent trading sessions. The ETF suite has recorded six consecutive days of net inflows, a streak that has persisted even as Bitcoin’s price rally has stalled near the $85,000 level since Tuesday. The decoupling of fund flows from immediate price action suggests institutional allocation decisions are increasingly driven by strategic portfolio positioning rather than short-term momentum chasing.

    Why This Matters

    The shift from deep negative territory to positive year-to-date flows marks a critical psychological and structural threshold for the digital asset ecosystem. The 2024 calendar year saw $35.2 billion in total net inflows, while the source cites a $21.4 billion figure for 2025—indicating that despite the recent rebound, the current pace remains well below the run-rate established during the peak adoption phase. The sustained inflows following the Treasury’s bond-buying program highlight the sensitivity of Bitcoin-linked products to global liquidity conditions, reinforcing the narrative that Bitcoin functions as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset. Market participants will closely monitor whether the six-day streak can extend into a sustained trend capable of closing the gap with prior-year totals, and whether Bitcoin can decisively break above the $85,000 resistance that has capped gains this week.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    How much have U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted in net inflows for 2025?

    As of the latest data from SoSoValue, the funds hold nearly $800 million in net inflows year-to-date, a dramatic reversal from a $5.8 billion deficit recorded on July 13.

    What triggered the recent surge in ETF inflows?

    Approximately $4 billion of the inflows occurred after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August announcement of increased bond purchases, implemented as bond yields reached multi-year highs.

    How do current 2025 inflows compare to previous years?

    Despite the turnaround, the $800 million year-to-date figure remains significantly smaller than the $35.2 billion recorded for full-year 2024 and the $21.4 billion cited for 2025.

  • Markets Eye Federal Reserve: Goolsbee on Inflation, Bessent on Warsh

    Markets Eye Federal Reserve: Goolsbee on Inflation, Bessent on Warsh

    Key Highlights

    • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled openness to rate cuts if inflation meaningfully decelerates toward the 2% target, while emphasizing the need for decisive action against price pressures.
    • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and noted President Donald Trump shares that confidence, alongside an expansion of the Treasury’s bond repurchase program.
    • With U.S. PCE inflation at 3.7% as of July, Goolsbee stressed that reaching the 2% goal depends on easing supply constraints and distinguishing between supply-driven and demand-driven inflation components.

    Goolsbee Outlines Conditional Path for Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Fight

    Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee delivered a nuanced assessment of monetary policy during a meeting in London, stating that the central bank would not oppose interest rate reductions if inflation slows significantly toward its 2% target. His remarks come on the heels of the Fed’s 25 basis point rate increase last week—the first hike since 2023—with markets now pricing potential further increases in October or December. Goolsbee emphasized that the Federal Reserve must have the courage to respond forcefully to inflation when necessary, expressing optimism that the 2% goal remains achievable provided there are no signs of overheating demand.

    Disentangling Supply Shocks from Demand Pressures

    Central to Goolsbee’s analysis is the ongoing effort to parse how much of current inflation stems from supply disruptions versus demand strength. He pointed specifically to robust investment in artificial intelligence as a factor supporting demand, while noting that persistent supply shocks continue to exert upward pressure on prices. As of July, U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation stood at 3.7%, and Goolsbee underscored that returning to the 2% target hinges on the easing of supply-side constraints. Officials, he said, are still analyzing the relative contributions of supply and demand dynamics to the current inflation picture.

    Bessent Backs Warsh, Highlights Treasury Market Operations

    Following the Fed’s latest rate decision, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on CNBC to convey a message of stability regarding Fed leadership. Bessent reiterated his confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and added that President Donald Trump also maintains confidence in Warsh’s stewardship of monetary policy. The Treasury chief also addressed market liquidity conditions, disclosing that the department has increased the size of its bond repurchase program—a move aimed at supporting smooth functioning in the government securities market.

    Central Bank Independence Takes Center Stage

    Goolsbee waded into the institutional dimension of monetary policy, arguing that expectations for the Fed to lower federal government borrowing costs underscore the critical importance of central bank independence. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve must set monetary policy strictly in line with its inflation mandate, free from fiscal dominance considerations. The comments arrive at a moment when the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and Treasury market interventions is under intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike.

    Why This Matters

    The divergent but complementary signals from the Fed and Treasury reflect a delicate balancing act as policymakers navigate the final stretch of 2026. Goolsbee’s conditional dovishness—openness to cuts only if inflation data cooperates—signals that the Fed remains data-dependent despite the recent hike. Meanwhile, Bessent’s public backing of Chairman Warsh and the expansion of the Treasury’s buyback operation aim to anchor market confidence in both leadership continuity and plumbing liquidity. With PCE inflation still nearly double the target and AI-driven investment bolstering demand, the path to 2% remains contingent on supply-side normalization, making upcoming inflation prints and Fed communications pivotal for market pricing through year-end.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What conditions would prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts according to Goolsbee?

    Goolsbee stated the Fed would not oppose rate cuts if inflation slows significantly toward the 2% target, provided there are no signs of overheating demand and supply pressures continue to ease.

    What is the current level of U.S. PCE inflation and the Fed’s target?

    As of July, U.S. PCE inflation was at 3.7%, while the Federal Reserve’s target remains 2%.

    What actions has the Treasury taken to support market liquidity?

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an increase in the size of the Treasury’s bond repurchase program to address liquidity conditions in the government securities market.

  • Bitcoin’s ‘Unusual Mix’: Bearish Inflation Print, Bullish Buyback Failure

    Bitcoin’s ‘Unusual Mix’: Bearish Inflation Print, Bullish Buyback Failure

    Bitcoin’s near-term upside faces fresh headwinds after hotter-than-expected core inflation data, but a potential failure of the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback program could strengthen the longer-term bullish case, according to a new report from European asset manager CoinShares.

    Sticky Inflation Raises Odds of Tighter Fed Policy

    In a Friday note, CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill said firmer-than-expected core inflation raises the probability of tighter Federal Reserve policy and could cap Bitcoin below $80,000 in the short term. Data released Friday showed the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from the previous month — above consensus estimates.

    According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders see an 85% chance interest rates will be higher after the Federal Reserve meets next week. Bitcoin has historically performed better in low interest rate environments.

    Treasury Buyback Failure Could Fuel Debasement Narrative

    Butterfill argued the longer-term case for Bitcoin rests on the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback program failing to bring down long-end yields — a development that could ultimately feed the currency debasement narrative that has supported both Bitcoin and gold.

    “The result is therefore a somewhat unusual policy mix for Bitcoin,” the report read. “Today’s CPI data is negative at the margin, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy and potentially limiting the immediate upside.

    “But the apparent failure of the Treasury’s current buying programme increases the likelihood of much more substantial intervention further ahead.”

    It continued: “If that happens, it could become one of the more powerful medium-term catalysts for Bitcoin.”

    Pressure Building for ‘Bazooka-Style’ Intervention

    The U.S. Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program has so far failed to materially suppress long-term yields. If yields remain stubbornly high, Butterfill said pressure will build on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to escalate to a much larger, “bazooka-style” buying program aimed at forcing borrowing costs down.

    Bitcoin recorded one of its best monthly runs in years this past August after Bessent announced the department would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks. That announcement and subsequent price surge led some market observers to declare the so-called debasement trade had returned — a strategy where investors buy assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against currency devaluation as the dollar weakens.

  • 10-year Treasury yield tops 4.9%, highest since 2023, as oil surge raises inflation fears

    10-year Treasury yield tops 4.9%, highest since 2023, as oil surge raises inflation fears

    Treasury Yields Surge to Multiyear Highs as Oil Tops $100

    U.S. Treasury yields climbed to multiyear highs on Thursday, driven by a spike in oil prices that overshadowed a relatively benign wholesale inflation report. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose more than 6 basis points to 4.908%, marking its highest level since November 2023. This yield serves as a critical reference point for mortgage rates, auto loans, and credit card debt.

    Short- and Long-Term Yields Follow Suit

    The 2-year Treasury note yield, which is highly sensitive to near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations, reached 4.518% — its highest point since July 2023. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury bond yield advanced more than 4 basis points to 5.332%, reflecting broader geopolitical risk premiums. Yields move inversely to prices; one basis point equals 0.01%.

    Oil Price Spike Fuels Inflation Concerns

    The selloff in bonds accelerated after U.S. oil prices breached $100 per barrel on Thursday, stoked by fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict involving the U.S. and Iran. Higher energy costs threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, potentially altering the trajectory of interest rates.

    Wholesale Inflation Data Comes In Mixed

    Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed headline wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, matching Dow Jones consensus estimates. Excluding volatile food and energy categories, core PPI increased just 0.2%, coming in below the forecasted 0.3% gain. The data did little to calm markets already focused on the oil-driven inflation risk.

    Treasury Buyback Adds to Supply Dynamics

    Yields had already risen Wednesday following an announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the department would buy back $6 billion of longer-dated government bonds. The operation added to the supply-side narrative pressuring longer maturities.

    Focus Shifts to CPI and Fed Decision

    With the PPI data released and the 10-year yield testing multiyear peaks, investors are now turning their attention to Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for a clearer picture of consumer-level inflation. Next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be the next major catalyst for rate markets.

  • Bessent Urges Senate to Advance CLARITY Act as Crypto Rules Stall

    Bessent Urges Senate to Advance CLARITY Act as Crypto Rules Stall

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pressing the Senate to advance the CLARITY Act when lawmakers return from their August recess, renewing pressure on Congress to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. In a post on X, Bessent warned that further delays could weaken U.S. leadership in crypto and limit the government’s ability to prevent digital assets from being misused.

    In July, I called on the Senate to advance the Clarity Act — a bill to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets and upgrade our ability to prevent bad actors from exploiting these critical technologies.When the Senate returns from August recess, I…

    — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 9, 2026

    Senate Faces September Test

    Bessent made the appeal, urging senators to “remain at the negotiating table” and agree to a motion to proceed with the bill. The legislation still faces disagreements over crypto holdings, stablecoin rewards, and measures targeting illicit finance. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion in August, setting the stage for a possible vote on Sept. 15. The bill needs at least 60 votes to advance, making Democratic support crucial.

    Regulation and National Security

    The CLARITY Act would divide digital-asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC while adding consumer-protection and anti-money-laundering requirements. Bessent has argued that clearer rules could encourage crypto companies and investment to remain in the U.S. Administration officials have also said stronger regulations could support dollar-backed stablecoins and make digital assets harder to use for illicit finance. If lawmakers fail to advance the bill, the U.S. would remain without a broad framework for crypto market oversight.

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