2026 MLB Awards Watch: Cy Young, MVP, Rookie and Manager Races Enter Final Stretch
With the 2026 regular season winding down, the major award races are crystallizing across both leagues. Advanced metrics highlight historic performances, while traditional counting stats and team success continue to shape voter narratives. Here is a comprehensive breakdown of the leading candidates for the Cy Young, MVP, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year awards.
National League Cy Young: A Historic Class of Aces
This season stands out as a banner year for elite starting pitching in the National League. Preseason favorite Paul Skenes has endured a down year, yet the depth of excellence is unprecedented. By Bradford Doolittle’s AXE rating system—where a score of 130 represents performance three standard deviations above league average—nearly the entire NL Cy Young top 10 clears that threshold. That group excludes Tarik Skubal, whose 136 overall AXE is split between leagues following his deadline trade from Detroit to Los Angeles.
Despite the crowded field, betting markets have increasingly tilted toward Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski. His 150.9 pitching AXE is more than awards-worthy, though for much of the season he trailed Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez in the metric. AXE serves as an index to narrow the candidate pool; deeper analysis separates the front-runners: Misiorowski, Sanchez, Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jesus Luzardo.
The “Wow” Factor and Game-Score Dominance
“Good luck voters! With advanced numbers all over the place, it might simply come down to this: Misiorowski has the ‘wow!’ factor in a big way, leads the NL with a sub-2.00 ERA and is the ace of the NL’s best regular-season team. Though AXE can justifiably disagree, the case for Misiorowski is very easy to make.”
Doolittle introduces a consistency metric based on Bill James’ Game Score. A starter earns a “W” if his game score exceeds the opponent’s, an “L” if not. The record is then converted to a Fibonacci Win Score. By this measure, Misiorowski posts a sparkling 24-4 mark, yielding an MLB-best 40.57 Fibonacci Win Score. “I love that 24-4 record, which harkens back to the actual win-loss records posted in the 1980s by Dwight Gooden in 1985 and Roger Clemens a year later. Misiorowski’s 2026 season is the 2020s equivalent to those memorable seasons by similarly splashy phenoms from a different era.”
Comparable figures for the other contenders: Sanchez (18-13, 15.45), Sale (17-9, 19.12), Yamamoto (17-10, 17.7) and Luzardo (21-8, 28.2).
Leader Trend: Sanchez’s AXE Edge vs. Misiorowski’s Narrative
Doolittle notes he favors Misiorowski despite AXE favoring Sanchez. “So much of Sanchez’s edge in AXE is fueled by a strangely big lead in bWAR that I don’t think is a real thing. Of course, it’s not the only bottom-line metric in which Sanchez leads, so maybe we’re all ignoring reality. Either way, Sanchez’s stinker against the struggling Nationals this week in the midst of the Phillies’ playoff push did no favors for his Cy Young case.”
Biggest Mover: Luzardo’s Injury Derails Momentum
Jesus Luzardo gained 6.9 AXE points since the last update, second only to Tampa Bay’s Freddy Peralta among starters. However, a shoulder injury has ended his regular season and cast doubt on his postseason availability, nullifying any late charge.
Watch List: Mason Miller’s Reliever Case
San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller (133.0 AXE) won’t win the Cy Young, but his elite win probability added and championship probability added figures among NL pitchers make his final ranking noteworthy for a reliever.
American League Cy Young: Schlittler’s September Surge
New York Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler (153.1 AXE) has combined dominance with consistency. He entered September 12-6 with a 2.09 ERA, then posted a 0.89 ERA over his first three starts this month. Dylan Cease (145.8 AXE) remains outstanding but picked the wrong season to peak. Cease holds a slight edge in Game Score record (22-6, 33.3 Fibonacci points vs. Schlittler’s 22-9, 28.6), though Doolittle expects it won’t matter.
Reid Detmers (132.6 AXE) emerges as a notable second-half riser for the Angels: 3-2, 1.65 ERA and a near 7.0 K/BB ratio over 11 starts since the All-Star break.
National League MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong Runs Away With It
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (165.3 AXE) has effectively clinched the award and is now chasing history. “MLB.com’s Mike Petriello pointed out that Crow-Armstrong has an unheard of chance to lead baseball in both offensive and defensive runs above average, per FanGraphs. He’s three steals away from a 40-homer/40-steal season. And with 10.4 fWAR on the board, he has an outside shot of topping Rogers Hornsby’s 11.0 figure in 1929 for the Cubs’ team record. Not a bad body of work.”
The chase pack includes Shohei Ohtani (145.9), Cristopher Sanchez (143.7), Jacob Misiorowski (141.7) and Brice Turang (139.7). Pitchers appear on the MVP board because AXE values for the award compare them against the entire MLB talent pool, not just pitchers.
Biggest Mover: Elly De La Cruz’s Highlight-Reel Excellence
De La Cruz (135.3 AXE) won’t garner serious MVP support but continues to elevate his profile. Doolittle highlights a relay throw against the Dodgers: “De La Cruz drifted well into the grass to take the throw from JJ Bleday, spun, and fired a 102 mph missile to catcher Jose Trevino to cut Hernandez down by several steps. The best part was as soon as De La Cruz released the throw, he started running off the field, similar to Larry Bird walking off the court at the end of the 1988 3-point contest before his last shot had even gone through the basket. By the time Trevino had slapped the tag on Hernandez, De La Cruz was about eight steps toward the Reds’ dugout. Awesome.”
Watch List: Gabriel Moreno’s Playoff Stage
Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno (131.1 AXE) could earn down-ballot votes as Arizona fights for a playoff spot.
American League MVP: Yordan Alvarez Holds Off the Field
Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez (146.9 AXE) leads despite a second-half slowdown. “In many ways, first-half Yordan undermined second-half Yordan by being so locked in. Since the All-Star break, he has seen 4.1% fewer pitches in the zone overall and 5.8% fewer with men on base. Still, the Astros are in position to eke out an AL West crown and Alvarez has a whopping lead in both win probability added and championship probability added among MLB hitters. Houston would be well out of the race without Alvarez even if his slower second half means no Triple Crown.”
Cam Schlittler (143.0) and Bobby Witt Jr. (139.7) round out the top three. Junior Caminero (131.7) has surged in betting markets after delivering clutch home runs, including one that clinched a playoff berth for Tampa Bay.
NL Rookie of the Year: JJ Wetherholt’s Lead Erodes
St. Louis Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt (127.5 AXE) retains the AXE lead, but a second-half slump and a late-August IL stint have eroded his edge. Betting markets now favor Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart. Milwaukee’s Logan Henderson (116.0 AXE) has emerged as a legitimate No. 2 starter behind Misiorowski, going 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA over 10 second-half starts. Atlanta’s Didier Fuentes (115.8 AXE), just 21, has been a high-leverage bullpen weapon (7-2, 2.34 ERA, three saves) and will feature in the Braves’ playoff run.
AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle’s Historic Campaign
Detroit Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle (135.8 AXE) leads all AL hitters in bWAR (6.7) and ranks third in fWAR—not just among rookies, but all hitters. “According to Baseball Reference, as long as McGonigle’s 6.7 bWAR holds steady or goes up even more, he’ll set the Tigers’ rookie record for hitters set by Donie Bush (6.5). Bush isn’t around to congratulate McGonigle, though. He set the record 117 years ago.”
Boston’s Payton Tolle (120.4 AXE) has been a force since August (3-0, 2.44 ERA, 2.37 FIP over eight starts), while Kansas City catcher Carter Jensen (116.0 AXE) is authoring perhaps the best rookie catching season in Royals history.
Manager of the Year: Cash vs. Venable in AL; Murphy’s Three-Peat Bid in NL
American League: Kevin Cash Seeking Third Straight
Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash (113.5 EARL) has nudged ahead of Chicago’s Will Venable (113.0) after the White Sox’s recent slide. Cash has won two previous AL Manager of the Year awards in his 12-year tenure. The Rays have outperformed preseason forecasts and likely enter the playoffs as the AL’s top seed. If Chicago misses the postseason, Venable could fall to runner-up despite exceeding expectations.
National League: Pat Murphy’s Clear Case
Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy (109.7 EARL) is the frontrunner for a third consecutive award. “Murphy should win his third straight award and if he doesn’t, you figure it will be in part because of voter fatigue. But the Brewers are not only the NL’s best team by record, and have again raced past middling preseason forecasts, they’ve done it by turning over several key roster spots from last season. Milwaukee has worked two rookie position players into regular roles — Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara — which is kind of amazing when you consider how well a rookie has to play to help a 100-win team. Breaking in rookies is and always has been a key part of a manager’s job.”
Philadelphia’s Don Mattingly (102.4 EARL) could draw support for the Phillies’ turnaround, but Murphy’s resume appears decisive.
What Is AXE?
AXE is a consensus rating system that combines leading public value metrics—bWAR, fWAR, Win Probability Added and Championship Probability Added—using standard scores weighted to align with current standings. The index sets 100 as average; 110 is one standard deviation above, 120 is two, and 90 is one below. The managerial version (EARL) incorporates factors influencing postseason balloting such as exceeding preseason expectations, outperforming run differential and close-game performance. It is not a measure of managerial ability.
Note: Awards Watch typically excludes pitchers from MVP leaderboards (except Shohei Ohtani). In 2026, pitchers have entered the conversation and are included. AXE values for pitchers differ between MVP and Cy Young tables because MVP values compare against all MLB talent, while Cy Young values compare only against other pitchers.
