Tag: on-chain data

  • Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Surpass $90K by November on This Setup

    Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Surpass $90K by November on This Setup

    Bitcoin Analyst Predicts $90K by November Amid Bearish Sentiment

    Trader Matthew Hyland argues that Bitcoin is currently sitting at a daily cycle low with a bullish divergence forming on the charts, forecasting prices above $90,000 by early November. His call comes while BTC trades near $76,000, down sharply after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, and as the market’s most vocal participants remain predominantly bearish.

    Conflicting Technical Outlooks

    Posting on X, Hyland noted that bears were getting excited at what he considers a daily cycle low, with a bullish divergence setup forming underneath the price action.

    “See ya at $90k+ by early November,” he wrote.

    Swing trader Roman replied, “Yeah, part of me really thinks this was a low,” with Hyland acknowledging that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could fall further, though he pointed to liquidity clustered around $75,000.

    “So far it was just a liquidity grab IMO,” he stated, adding that there was “not really much liquidity below” that level.

    Hyland added that current prices look solid to him, even though most bears still aren’t buying the bottom narrative and are hoping for a much deeper decline.

    That view contrasts sharply with more pessimistic calls on X. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has lost its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and wrote:

    “a drop to $70K-$72K zone is highly likely before any reversal.”

    Fellow market watcher Crypto Patel has been tracking the bearish move since Bitcoin fell from $82,500 to roughly $74,900 following a rejection near an $83,000 bearish order block on the daily chart. He maintains a $50,000 target unless Bitcoin closes above $83,000 on a higher timeframe.

    On-Chain Data Points to Mid-Cycle Floor

    Taking a different approach, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech focused on Bitcoin holdings rather than price structure. They observed that the 6- to 12-month supply band has climbed to 30.8% of realized cap, up from 16.2% in December last year—a pattern that aligned with the last three Bitcoin bottoms.

    The analyst characterized this as a bullish setup but stopped short of declaring it the cycle low outright, noting that the original cryptocurrency is still down nearly 40% from its peak.

    “this reads as mid-cycle floor building, not the cycle low.”

    CLARITY Act Failure Triggers Capitulation

    At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $76,000, down about 1.5% in 24 hours and nearly 5% over the past week, though still up close to 19% across the last 30 days.

    The decline follows Tuesday’s Senate vote, where cloture on the CLARITY Act failed to secure the 60 votes required to advance the legislation. As reported earlier by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin short-term holders sent more than 23,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss in the aftermath, totaling nearly $1.8 billion and marking the largest capitulation event in approximately a month.

  • Major Shiba Inu (SHIB) Pattern: Triangle Breakout Nears as Whale Concentration Hits 94.68%

    Major Shiba Inu (SHIB) Pattern: Triangle Breakout Nears as Whale Concentration Hits 94.68%

    Shiba Inu ($SHIB) is exhibiting classic pre-breakout conditions as the token compresses at the apex of a large symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. Simultaneously, on-chain data from Etherscan reveals an extreme concentration of supply among a tiny cohort of wallets, a dynamic that suggests any directional move could be swift and decisive.

    Whale Dominance Defines $SHIB Market Structure

    According to Ethereum’s Token Analytics module, 94.68% of the circulating SHIB supply is controlled by just 808 addresses, representing a mere 0.05% of all token holders. The disparity is pronounced: the top 100 wallets alone command 82.73% of the supply, while the vast majority of retail investors—numbering in the millions—hold only 0.04% of tokens.

    This structural reality means price trajectory depends almost entirely on the trading decisions of a few hundred entities capable of directing trend irrespective of broader retail demand. With liquidity locked in such a narrow group, a breakout from the current technical pattern is likely to produce a directional and rapid price impulse.

    Key Technical Levels to Watch

    Traders are monitoring two critical triggers at the triangle’s boundaries that will dictate the next major move:

    • Bullish trigger: A daily candle close above $0.00000540 resistance would open a direct path toward $0.000006 and $0.000008.
    • Bearish trigger: A break below psychological support at $0.00000500 would likely prompt large holders to cut losses, sending $SHIB to new local lows.

    Price Compression at Critical Apex

    On the daily TradingView chart, the descending resistance trendline from the August highs near $0.00000600 has converged with the long-term ascending support line, trapping price near $0.00000520 after a 1.71% decline over the past 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 54.54, signaling a temporary equilibrium immediately before the asset exits a corridor that leaves no room for further consolidation.

    Current on-chain market capitalization stands at $5.19 billion. However, given the overwhelming dominance of large holders, the coming breakout—whichever direction it takes—will be driven by the actions of a concentrated few rather than broad market participation.

  • 241 Billion Shiba Inu Netflow Threatens Rally

    241 Billion Shiba Inu Netflow Threatens Rally

    Shiba Inu Rally Stalls as Exchange Inflows Signal Rising Sell Pressure

    Shiba Inu ($SHIB) opened the session with a bullish advance of roughly 4%, but on-chain data suggests the uptick may be losing steam as traders move large volumes of tokens back onto trading platforms.

    Exchange Netflow Turns Sharply Positive

    According to the latest figures from CryptoQuant, Shiba Inu recorded a net exchange inflow of 241,877,000,000 $SHIB over the past 24 hours. A positive netflow of this magnitude typically signals bearish sentiment, as it indicates that the volume of tokens deposited to exchanges for selling far exceeds the amount withdrawn for accumulation.

    The data implies that market participants are opting to realize gains following the recent price recovery rather than add to positions. With sellers dominating order flow, the path of least resistance for $SHIB appears tilted to the downside in the near term.

    Price Action Reverses Intraday

    Consistent with the on-chain shift, $SHIB erased its early gains and slipped into negative territory. As of the latest print, the token trades down approximately 0.45% on the day, underscoring how quickly exchange-driven supply can overwhelm buying interest.

    Market Watchers Await Flow Reversal

    Traders are now monitoring exchange netflow metrics for signs of a turnaround. A return to negative netflow — where withdrawals exceed deposits — would suggest renewed accumulation and could provide the catalyst for a faster price recovery.

  • Analyst: “Whales Are Behind This Altcoin’s Rally”

    Analyst: “Whales Are Behind This Altcoin’s Rally”

    Ethereum Surges 10% in Two Hours as Analyst Highlights Whale Activity

    Ethereum (ETH) experienced a sharp intraday rally today, gaining approximately 10 percent within a two-hour window. The asset’s price climbed rapidly from $2,433 to $2,667, marking a significant short-term recovery for the leading smart contract platform.

    Whale Accumulation Cited as Key Driver

    Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that whale activity played a significant role in the recent surge in Ethereum. According to Martinez, the rise coincided with substantial accumulation by large holders, suggesting that high-net-worth entities are positioning aggressively at current price levels. On-chain data referenced by the analyst indicates that these major addresses have been absorbing supply, providing the fuel for the swift upward move.

    Market Context and Technical Outlook

    The sudden spike broke through immediate resistance zones, triggering a cascade of short liquidations that likely amplified the move. Traders are now watching the $2,680–$2,700 region as the next critical hurdle. A sustained close above this area could open the path toward the $3,000 psychological level, while failure to hold gains may see a retest of the $2,450 support base.

    Volume metrics spiked alongside the price action, confirming genuine buying interest rather than a low-liquidity anomaly. The derivatives market also showed a spike in open interest, signaling fresh capital entering the market rather than purely short-covering dynamics.

  • Curve’s Soft Liquidation Model Helps Borrowers Survive Market Drawdowns

    Curve’s Soft Liquidation Model Helps Borrowers Survive Market Drawdowns

    Curve Finance Soft Liquidation Data Reveals Borrowers Recover After Weeks in Liquidation

    New on-chain data from Curve Finance shows that hundreds of borrowers spent days or weeks in a partially liquidated state before their positions recovered, challenging the conventional assumption that liquidation equals immediate loss.

    How Soft Liquidation Works on Curve

    Unlike traditional hard liquidation — where a position is closed outright once collateral value drops below a threshold — Curve’s crvUSD lending markets use a soft liquidation mechanism. When a borrower’s collateral value falls into a specific price band, the protocol automatically converts a portion of that collateral into crvUSD stablecoins to reduce debt.

    The unusual finding is that these conversions happen while the loan remains open. A position can stay partly liquidated for extended periods and still recover if market prices reverse.

    Curve Finance Market Context

    Curve Finance operates as a major decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol specializing in stablecoin swaps and lending. According to DefiLlama data:

    • Total deposits: Approximately $1.35 billion
    • 30-day DEX volume: Roughly $3.4 billion
    • 30-day protocol fees: About $4.3 million
    • 30-day protocol revenue: Approximately $1.15 million
    • Active loans outstanding: Roughly $46 million

    Costs and Risks Remain for Borrowers

    Soft liquidation is not cost-free. The data indicates borrowers can still lose money through:

    • Trading fees during collateral conversion
    • Rebalancing costs
    • Accrued interest
    • Repeated price movements in both directions

    A position can still progress to hard liquidation if adverse price action continues. Even when prices recover, the borrower may not return to their original position due to accumulated costs and slippage.

    Key Takeaway for DeFi Lending

    Curve’s data establishes that on this system, crossing into liquidation does not mean a loan is dead. Hundreds of borrowers experienced extended periods in soft liquidation — days or weeks — before their positions recovered, demonstrating a materially different risk profile compared to traditional lending protocols.