Tag: National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Marie is unlikely to reach California, but the storm could still affect the region over the holiday weekend. Possible impacts include high surf, coastal flooding, rip currents, and perhaps showers and thunderstorms across the Los Angeles Basin.

Where Hurricane Marie is now

Marie is currently well off Mexico’s Pacific coast. The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast shows the storm’s location, status, and five-day forecast cone.

(MORE: What the forecast cone means)

Where Hurricane Marie could go

Forecast models have offered two different scenarios for Marie’s path in recent days.

One group of models shows Marie continuing west-northwest this weekend and into next week, keeping the storm far from land. Another group turns Marie toward the north, bringing what remains of the storm close to—or possibly over—parts of Southern California early next week.

While it is too soon to rule out either scenario, the more likely outcome is that Marie remains far from land.

Even if Marie moves farther north, dry and stable air combined with the cooler, although still much warmer than usual, waters of the California ocean current would likely weaken the storm significantly. A similar process occurred in August 2023 with what was once Hurricane Hilary.

Because of these conditions, tropical cyclones are rare near Southern California. The only known Southern California hurricane struck San Diego before the Civil War.

Possible impacts in California

California could still experience weather effects from Marie and the broader atmospheric pattern, even if the storm stays hundreds of miles offshore.

High surf, rip currents and coastal flooding

Swells generated by Marie are expected to move toward the Southern California coast this weekend, according to the National Weather Service. Large breaking waves and dangerous rip currents could result even if Marie remains far offshore.

The National Weather Service also warned of possible coastal flooding, particularly along south-facing shores.

Showers and thunderstorms

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase across much of the West, including parts of California, from later this week through early next week.

A southward plunge of the jet stream into the West Coast will draw additional tropical moisture into the region, including some moisture associated with Marie. Storms could produce locally heavy, flooding rainfall, especially in hilly, mountainous, urban, and desert areas.

What residents should do

People in California and the Desert Southwest should continue monitoring the forecast for Marie in case the storm’s projected path changes.

Residents and visitors should also:

• Stay out of the ocean unless you are an experienced surfer or strong swimmer. If you enter the water, stay near lifeguards.
• Know whether you live near areas recently burned by wildfires.
• Keep a go-bag ready in case flash flooding or debris flows lead to evacuations.
• Never drive through flooded roads or around barricades. Turn around and find an alternate route.
• Consider postponing hikes and outdoor activities in canyons or mountainous areas when thunderstorms are forecast.

Thunderstorms several miles away can trigger dangerous, fast-moving flash floods that sweep through canyons with little warning.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com who has covered national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.