Daily News 19

Tag: Multicoin Capital

  • HYPE Token Drops From $98 Record High as Whales Signal Potential Deeper Selloff

    HYPE Token Drops From $98 Record High as Whales Signal Potential Deeper Selloff

    Key Highlights

    • Hyperliquid’s $HYPE token declined over 3% on September 24 to trade near $93.80, pulling back from a record high of $97.98 reached the previous day as Multicoin Capital moved another $12.15 million in tokens to Coinbase Prime.
    • Multicoin Capital has deposited approximately 4.23 million $HYPE worth $285 million to Coinbase Prime since July 28, while five other large addresses initiated unstaking of 983,600 $HYPE ($90.44 million) with a seven-day unlock period ending around October 1.
    • Derivatives data shows $3.30 million in long liquidations and a $74 million drop in open interest over two days, signaling leveraged position unwinding, though $HYPE remains up 18.4% on the week and holds above key exponential moving averages.

    Multicoin Capital Transfers Renew Selling Pressure on $HYPE

    Hyperliquid’s native token $HYPE retreated more than 3% during the September 24 session, slipping to approximately $93.80 after briefly dipping below $92 earlier in the day. The pullback interrupted a sharp rally that had carried the token to an all-time high of $97.98 on September 23, representing a roughly 25% surge from the September 17 level near $78. Despite the intraday decline, $HYPE retains substantial gains of 18.4% over the past seven days and 16.1% over the past 30 days, outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market which has also seen Bitcoin retreat from recent highs.

    The immediate catalyst for renewed selling concern came from onchain analytics platform Lookonchain, which reported that venture firm Multicoin Capital transferred another 130,331 $HYPE—valued at $12.15 million—to Coinbase Prime after a one-week pause in such transfers. Since July 28, Multicoin Capital has deposited approximately 4.23 million $HYPE worth an estimated $285 million to the institutional custody and execution platform. While transfers to Coinbase Prime do not confirm outright sales—the venue provides prime brokerage, custody, and execution services for institutional clients—the consistent flow of tokens from a single large holder has kept market participants focused on potential supply overhang.

    Large Holder Unstaking Adds to Supply Concerns

    Compounding the narrative, Lookonchain identified five addresses that began unstaking a combined 983,600 $HYPE worth approximately $90.44 million on September 24. The largest of these addresses initiated the unstaking of roughly 391,800 $HYPE valued near $36 million. Hyperliquid’s protocol imposes a mandatory seven-day waiting period on unstaking, meaning these tokens are not expected to become liquid until around October 1. This delayed timeline suggests any selling pressure from these specific positions would be staggered rather than immediate, though the sheer volume of tokens exiting staking contracts underscores a shift in large-holder positioning after the token’s rapid ascent.

    Derivatives Unwinding Accompanies Spot Pullback

    The spot price decline coincided with notable weakness in derivatives markets. Recent data indicates approximately $3.30 million in $HYPE long liquidations over 24 hours, accounting for roughly 93% of the token’s total liquidations during that period. Simultaneously, open interest fell by approximately $74 million over a two-day window. The combination of a falling price and declining open interest typically signals that leveraged long positions are being closed—either voluntarily or via forced liquidation—rather than new short positions being established. This dynamic suggests the current correction is being driven primarily by profit-taking and risk reduction among leveraged participants rather than aggressive new bearish bets.

    Technical Structure Remains Constructive Despite Near-Term Weakness

    Daily Timeframe: Uptrend Intact Above Key EMAs

    On the daily chart, $HYPE continues to trade well above its primary exponential moving averages despite the retreat from the $97.98 peak. At approximately $93.26, the token sits comfortably above the 20-day EMA at $87.12, while the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs stand at $79.21, $71.24, and $60.50 respectively. The stacked ordering—each shorter EMA above the longer—remains a bullish configuration. The 20-day EMA near $87.12 represents the first major dynamic support if the pullback extends, with a daily close below that level bringing the 50-day EMA around $79.21 into focus, near the pre-breakout consolidation zone.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 62.84 after breaching the 70 overbought threshold during the late-September rally. While still above the neutral 50 level, the retreat from overbought territory confirms that buying momentum has eased meaningfully since the approach to $98.

    4-Hour Timeframe: Fibonacci Levels Frame Immediate Support and Resistance

    The shorter timeframe offers more granular levels around current prices. A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the September low at $75.19 to the recent high at $98.04 places the 23.6% retracement at $92.65. $HYPE was trading just above this level at approximately $93.34, making the $92.65 area the first support to watch. A decisive break below $92.65 would expose the 38.2% retracement at $89.31, followed by the 50% level at $86.62 and the 61.8% retracement at $83.92. A deeper correction could target the 78.6% level around $80.08.

    Momentum indicators on the four-hour chart have already turned bearish. The MACD line stood at 0.732, below the signal line at 1.319, with the histogram at minus 0.587. The negative histogram and bearish MACD crossover confirm that near-term momentum has shifted in favor of sellers following the rejection near the record high.

    Key Levels to Watch

    • Immediate Support: $92.65 (23.6% Fib retracement)
    • Secondary Support: $89.31 (38.2% Fib) / $86.60–$87.10 zone (50% Fib + 20-day EMA confluence)
    • Immediate Resistance: $94–$95 (recent consolidation area)
    • Upside Targets: $98.04 (record high) → $100 (psychological level)

    Holding above $92.65 would keep $HYPE in the upper portion of its recent range, leaving the door open for a recovery attempt toward $94–$95 and a potential retest of the $98.04 high. A clean break above the all-time high would put the psychological $100 level in play. Conversely, a failure at $92.65 opens the path toward the $89.31 and $86.62 Fibonacci levels, with the latter converging with the daily 20-day EMA to form a significant support zone around $86.60–$87.10.

    Why This Matters

    The $HYPE price action encapsulates a classic post-breakout dynamic: a rapid, low-float rally attracts speculative leveraged interest, large early backers begin distributing into strength, and the market digests the supply overhang through a correction that flushes excess leverage. Multicoin Capital’s sustained transfers to Coinbase Prime—totaling $285 million since late July—represent one of the largest identifiable distribution campaigns by a single institutional holder in the current cycle. Meanwhile, the coordinated unstaking by five large addresses signals that other major stakeholders are also preparing to reduce exposure or rebalance.

    For Hyperliquid, a high-performance decentralized perpetual exchange, $HYPE’s tokenomics tie staking rewards and governance to the platform’s fee revenue. The seven-day unstaking lock provides a structural buffer that prevents immediate dumping, but the sheer scale of tokens exiting staking (nearly 1 million $HYPE) suggests a meaningful shift in holder sentiment. The derivatives unwind—$74 million in open interest evaporation and 93% long liquidations—is a healthy reset that removes fragile positioning, potentially setting the stage for a more sustainable uptrend if spot demand reasserts itself at the 20-day EMA or Fibonacci confluence zones.

    Broader market context matters: Bitcoin’s simultaneous pullback from recent highs has weighed on risk appetite across crypto, and $HYPE’s outsized weekly gains (+18.4%) made it a natural candidate for profit-taking during a risk-off episode. The coming week will test whether the $86.60–$87.10 support zone holds and whether spot buyers step in to absorb the anticipated October 1 unlock supply.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Has Multicoin Capital sold its $HYPE holdings?

    Not necessarily. Multicoin Capital has transferred approximately 4.23 million $HYPE worth $285 million to Coinbase Prime since July 28, but Coinbase Prime is an institutional custody and execution platform. Transfers to Prime do not confirm sales; the tokens may be held in custody, used for market-making, or deployed in other strategies. However, the consistent flow from a single large holder creates a perceived supply overhang that weighs on market sentiment.

    When will the unstaked $HYPE from the five large addresses become available for sale?

    Hyperliquid imposes a mandatory seven-day unstaking period. The unstaking transactions were initiated on September 24, meaning the approximately 983,600 $HYPE (worth ~$90.44 million) are expected to become liquid around October 1. They cannot be sold or transferred before the unlock completes.

    What are the key technical levels for $HYPE right now?

    On the 4-hour chart, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $92.65 is the first support. A break below exposes $89.31 (38.2%) and the $86.60–$87.10 zone where the 50% Fibonacci level converges with the daily 20-day EMA. On the upside, $94–$95 is immediate resistance, followed by the all-time high at $98.04 and the psychological $100 level. The daily structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the 20-day EMA at $87.12.

  • Multicoin Founder: “Bitcoin and Ethereum Will Lag Behind in This Cycle,” Shares Altcoin Outlook

    Multicoin Founder: “Bitcoin and Ethereum Will Lag Behind in This Cycle,” Shares Altcoin Outlook

    Key Highlights

    • Multicoin Capital co-founder Tushar Jain warns that “bear market trauma” causes investors to underestimate bull market potential, citing historical examples like Ethereum’s 100x rise in 2017 and Solana’s surge from $2 to $250 in 2021.
    • Jain predicts Bitcoin and Ethereum will significantly underperform high-quality altcoins in the current cycle, suggesting capital rotation could drive sharper altcoin gains without requiring the previous cycle’s market cap expansion.
    • Based on CoinGecko data showing crypto market cap nearly quadrupled from $770 billion to $3 trillion in the last cycle, Jain argues a mere twofold increase from the current $2.1 trillion to $4.2 trillion could fuel substantial altcoin appreciation.

    Multicoin Capital’s Jain Identifies “Bear Market Trauma” as Key Investor Pitfall

    Tushar Jain, co-founder of cryptocurrency investment firm Multicoin Capital, has warned that prolonged market downturns inflict psychological damage that blinds investors to the explosive potential of subsequent bull runs. In a detailed analysis of current market dynamics, Jain articulated how extended periods of decline erode conviction in the magnitude of bull market movements, leading to what he terms a pervasive cognitive bias among market participants.

    Central to Jain’s thesis is the concept of “bear market trauma” — a phrase he uses to describe the tendency of investors to forget how powerful price movements can be in a bull market after enduring a long and painful period of decline. This psychological anchoring to recent price action, he argues, causes systematic underestimation of upside potential precisely when opportunity is greatest.

    Historical Precedents Underscore Altcoin Outperformance Potential

    To illustrate the magnitude of gains possible during bullish expansions, Jain cited two landmark historical examples. He pointed to Ethereum’s ascent from $10 to $1,000 during the 2017 cycle — a 100x appreciation — and Solana’s (SOL) remarkable climb from $2 to $250 in the 2021 cycle. These cases, he contends, demonstrate that high-quality alternative assets can deliver returns that dwarf major large-cap cryptocurrencies during periods of broad market expansion.

    Jain stated that he believes $BTC and $ETH will underperform significantly compared to other high-quality crypto assets in the current market cycle. This conviction underpins his argument that capital rotation from the two dominant cryptocurrencies into a broader set of quality altcoins could produce much sharper gains in those assets, even without a proportionate increase in total market capitalization.

    Market Capitalization Math Suggests Lower Threshold for Altcoin Gains

    Supporting his outlook with quantitative analysis, Jain referenced CoinGecko data showing that total cryptocurrency market capitalization nearly quadrupled in the previous cycle, growing from approximately $770 billion in 2021 to $3 trillion at its peak. He contrasted this with the current cycle’s starting point, noting that if the market were to grow only twofold this time around — a more modest expansion — the total value could reach $4.2 trillion from the current $2.1 trillion.

    This mathematical framing suggests that altcoins may not require a repeat of the last cycle’s explosive total market growth to achieve significant price appreciation. Instead, a redistribution of capital within a moderately expanding total addressable market could be sufficient to drive outsized returns in selected high-quality assets, according to Jain’s analysis.

    Why This Matters

    Jain’s perspective carries weight given Multicoin Capital’s track record as an early institutional backer of Solana and other layer-one ecosystems that subsequently achieved massive valuations. His framework challenges the prevailing narrative that Bitcoin and Ethereum must lead any sustainable bull market, instead positing a scenario where capital efficiency favors rotating into assets with higher beta to market expansion. For market participants, the analysis underscores the importance of distinguishing between psychological anchoring to past trauma and objective assessment of current risk-reward dynamics. The next critical test will be whether Bitcoin dominance continues to decline amid rising total market cap — a pattern that would validate the capital rotation thesis — or whether the major assets reassert leadership, undermining the altcoin outperformance scenario.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is “bear market trauma” according to Tushar Jain?

    Jain defines “bear market trauma” as the common investor mistake of forgetting how powerful price movements can be in a bull market after a long and painful period of decline, leading to systematic underestimation of upside potential.

    Why does Jain believe Bitcoin and Ethereum will underperform altcoins this cycle?

    Jain argues that capital will shift from BTC and ETH toward high-quality altcoins as they lag behind broader market momentum, producing sharper gains in those assets without requiring the same magnitude of total market cap expansion seen in prior cycles.

    What market cap levels does Jain cite from CoinGecko data?

    Jain notes total crypto market cap nearly quadrupled from approximately $770 billion in 2021 to $3 trillion in the last cycle, and projects that a twofold increase from the current $2.1 trillion could bring total valuation to $4.2 trillion.

    This is not investment advice.