Tag: Golden cross

Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen
Bitcoin’s Daily Golden Cross Fails as Hawkish Fed Expectations Trigger Pullback

Bitcoin’s brief daily golden cross collapsed Friday evening as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) slipped back below the 200-day EMA, reversing a bullish signal that had confirmed earlier in the session. The cryptocurrency retreated to $77,438 after reaching an intraday high near $79,837, tracking a sharp repricing in interest-rate markets following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

Rate-Hike Odds Surge After CPI Release

The pullback coincides with a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed core monthly inflation at 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast. In response, CME FedWatch Tool data indicates the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting spiked from roughly 69% immediately after the data release to 86.5% within hours.

A rate increase would typically trigger a risk-off move, pressuring assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks. Despite the intraday reversal, Bitcoin remains up 1.19% on the day.

Daily Candle Structure: Volatile Round Trip

Friday’s daily candle opened at $76,529, surged to $79,837, dropped to a low of $76,040, and settled near $77,438. That volatility was sufficient to flip the daily EMA crossover back to bearish after the 50-day average had briefly pierced above the 200-day average—a pattern traders call a golden cross, widely regarded as a strong bullish signal. Bitcoin had not printed a daily golden cross since November 2024.

Why the Golden Cross Flickered

A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average (the 50-day, based on the last 50 daily closes) crosses above a longer-term one (the 200-day). It is among the most watched trend signals across markets, historically preceding significant Bitcoin rallies. However, it is a lagging indicator constructed entirely from past prices. When the two averages trade in close proximity—as they do now—intraday swings can toggle the signal on and off within a single session.

Today’s push to $79,837 lifted the 50-day EMA above the 200-day, and the subsequent retreat to $77,438 pulled it back under. For daily chart watchers, the episode underscores how fragile such crossovers can be when the averages sit near each other. The daily candle remains open, so the reading could flip again before the close.

Underlying Trend Strength Remains Intact

Despite the moving-average whipsaw, broader trend metrics support a constructive outlook. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength irrespective of direction, reads 45 on the daily chart—well above the 25 threshold that separates a genuine trend from noise. Positive directional movement continues to outpace negative.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator scaled 0–100, sits at 55.5 on the daily timeframe, holding on the bullish side of neutral (above 50). Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions; below 30 indicates oversold.

4-Hour Chart: Bullish Structure Persists, Momentum Cools

Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour timeframe never lost its golden cross. The 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, preserving a bullish structure that formed in late August. However, short-term momentum has deteriorated:
- RSI: Dropped to 43.3, entering bearish territory.
- Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Fired after days of compression, with volatility expanding 3.95%—a pattern that often precedes a sharp directional move, currently to the downside.
- ADX: Stands at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, signaling a much weaker intraday trend compared to the daily reading of 45.
The bigger picture still leans bullish. The 4-hour golden cross has held since late August, and the daily ADX at 45 confirms a robust trend is in place even as the moving-average label flips back and forth on a single volatile session.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
09/11/2026
Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

U.S. Inflation Data Delivers Mixed Signals as Core CPI Runs Hot

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gave markets a mixed bag on Friday. Headline inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, both matching consensus estimates and matching July’s annual pace. However, core CPI—which excludes food and energy—told a more nuanced story. The annual core rate cooled to 2.4% from 2.5%, its lowest level since 2021, but the monthly core reading came in at 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% analysts had forecast. That hotter-than-expected monthly core figure is the detail markets zeroed in on as the Federal Reserve approaches its September 15-16 policy meeting.

Fed Rate Hike Probabilities Tick Up

The report lands five days before the Fed’s next decision, the last major data point Chair Kevin Warsh’s committee will see before voting. Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the Fed still has “work to do” on inflation. Three regional Fed presidents already dissented in favor of a hike at the July meeting, so a move would not be entirely unexpected. CME FedWatch, which tracks probabilities implied by 30-day Fed funds futures, puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at roughly 69%. Prediction markets are slightly more cautious: Polymarket prices the same outcome at 62%, and Myriad—the platform run by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—has it at 61%.

Crypto Market Rallies Despite Initial Dip

Bitcoin initially dipped on the news but quickly reversed, climbing back toward $79,000 as the broader market digested the implications for interest rates. Ethereum led major assets higher, surging 7.48% on the day to reclaim $2,611, while Solana rose 4.53% back above $100. Zcash stood out across the top 10, gaining 23.09% over the past week alongside a 4.71% daily gain. Total crypto market capitalization climbed back near $2.7 trillion.

Sentiment swung hard with the price action. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had slipped to 56 after Thursday’s hot producer-price report, jumped back to 73—firmly in “greed” territory—while the Altcoin Season Index sits at 38, indicating Bitcoin still dominates the ecosystem as traders lack enough risk appetite for a full altcoin rotation. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to show a net outflow of roughly $330.5 million on the day, a reminder that this rally hasn’t yet pulled fresh institutional money off the sidelines.

Derivatives activity climbed alongside the rally. Open interest across crypto futures rose 1.52% to $429.99 billion, with 24-hour trading volume up 2.27% to $877.11 billion. The volatile session triggered $897.09 million in liquidations, split between $493.85 million in long positions and $403.24 million in shorts.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Golden Cross Forms on Daily Chart

Bitcoin opened Friday at $76,529 and briefly dipped toward the day’s $76,040 low in the minutes after the CPI print—an initial hawkish reaction before the market reversed hard. Bulls have since taken over, pushing BTC as high as $79,837 through the session. The asset now trades near $79,007, a 3.24% gain on the day and nearing the psychologically significant $80K mark.

Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview

Golden Cross Signals Medium-Term Trend Shift

The chart’s biggest structural shift is the exponential moving average (EMA) crossover. Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA has now crossed above its 200-day EMA, forming a golden cross—a setup traders read as confirmation that the medium-term trend has flipped bullish rather than a warning of a coming reversal, which the opposite death cross would signal. The crossover just happened, meaning it is not technically confirmed yet; there isn’t yet a significant gap between both averages, so traders would be wise to keep their champagne in the refrigerator for a couple of days.

Momentum Indicators Support Upside

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 59.7—bullish territory and well below the 70 reading that would flag the move as overbought. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength regardless of direction, reads in the 40s, comfortably above the 25 threshold that separates a real trend from noise, with the DI+ line above DI- confirming buyers remain in control.

Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Fed Decision

The key zone to watch sits below current prices: a Fibonacci retracement drawn off the summer’s $68,858 low to the $82,281 high hit in late August places Bitcoin’s golden zone—the retracement band bulls need to defend—between $73,986 and $75,569. Above that, the $82,281 high from late August remains the level that needs to break for the rally to extend before the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET.

Myriad: $BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K? Click to make your prediction.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

09/11/2026
Bitcoin Gold Cross Alert: Analyst Warns “Bullish at First, But Then…”

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned investors that Bitcoin historically declines following a “Golden Cross” pattern, a technical formation typically interpreted as a bullish signal.

Golden Cross Often Precedes Short-Term Pullback

The Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. While technicians widely view this crossover as a long-term buy signal, Cowen’s analysis of past cycles shows the pattern frequently coincides with local market tops.

Analyst: “Bitcoin Generally Seen to Decline After a Gold Crossover”

According to Cowen, the rallies that precede the Golden Cross push the moving averages higher to create the crossover. However, once the intersection is complete, the market often experiences sell-offs from those local highs. Historical data from the 2019 and 2023 Golden Cross events shows pullbacks ranging between 12% and 15% at the moment of intersection, followed by recovery and new local highs.

Current Pullback Considered Natural

Cowen characterizes the ongoing pullback as a natural market structure development. He emphasizes that the critical factor is not the depth of the initial selling wave, but the character of the rebound rally that follows. It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will establish a new high or form a lower peak after the sell-off concludes.

Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios for Q4

Outlining forward-looking scenarios, Cowen stated that a higher peak during the rebound would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, if the rebound remains weak and forms a lower peak—similar to the price action observed in 2014 and 2015—the risk of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter could increase.

This is not investment advice.

09/09/2026
ETH Price Eyes 35% Upside in September

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Breaks Out but Faces Critical Supply Zone Test

Ethereum has traveled a significant distance from June’s $1,510 support level, where a double-bottom pattern initially formed. The subsequent rebound proved gradual, with the token contending with the pattern’s neckline from mid-July through mid-August. A decisive breakout finally arrived in late August, propelling ETH to $2,535.

Technical Structure Shifts Bullish with Golden Cross Formation

The chart now presents a cleaner bullish structure. A golden cross has formed between the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) bands, representing an important technical shift that could underpin a longer-term rally provided follow-up demand materializes.

That conditional demand remains pivotal because ETH is currently wrestling with the $2,383–$2,495 range, which has functioned as supply. Should the price sustain above this zone and flip it into demand, September could become particularly interesting, with $2,791 and $3,381 standing as the next major upside targets. Conversely, losing the range would considerably weaken the setup, potentially sending ETH back toward the 200-day EMA near $2,150.

Exchange Balance Data Reveals Accumulation Trend

Beyond the chart, an unusual dynamic is unfolding. Ethereum exchange balances have declined from approximately 7.69 million coins on June 3 to roughly 6.28 million on August 27, an 18% reduction. The withdrawal trend did not pause during the rally; an additional 275,000 ETH left exchanges after August 19, pushing balances to their lowest point of the period.

The timing is noteworthy because ETH has gained roughly 27% since August 16, meaning the exchange drain continued while prices were rising rather than falling. Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange balances moved in the opposite direction, increasing approximately 0.25% over the same 12-week window.

Mixed Indicator Signals Show Strength Alongside Exhaustion Risks

The technical picture is not entirely one-sided. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is rising, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is improving, and the golden cross confirms strengthening bullish pressure.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78.05 signals overheated conditions, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) around 0.33 sits near a peak. These readings suggest the rally may require a cooling-off period before another sustained move higher.

Key Level to Watch: $2,383–$2,495 Zone Dictates Next Direction

For ETH price action, everything now hinges on the $2,383–$2,495 zone. Holding this area as demand emerges could open the path toward $2,791 followed by $3,381. Under bullish continuation these levels come into focus, but losing the range would collapse the price toward the 200-day EMA aligning near $2,150.

08/27/2026