Daily News 19

Tag: Galaxy Research

  • ‘Only hedge funds, retail sold’ — Will BTC Sustain Rally as Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive?

    ‘Only hedge funds, retail sold’ — Will BTC Sustain Rally as Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive?

    Key Highlights

    • U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion in net inflows across five consecutive trading days, flipping year-to-date flows positive with $349 million, led by BlackRock commanding half of all demand.
    • Bitcoin surged to an eight-month high of $87,000 before retreating below $84,000 as 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.1% and CME FedWatch data priced a 64% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
    • Galaxy Research data reveals cumulative ETF flows have recovered half of the $12 billion deficit since October 2023, though Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart identifies hedge funds and retail traders as the primary sellers over the past year.

    Five-Day Inflow Surge Turns YTD Flows Positive

    U.S. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds extended a winning streak to five consecutive sessions, amassing $2.65 billion in net inflows and marking a decisive shift in market sentiment. According to Galaxy Research data, the complex attracted $1 billion on Monday alone, followed by $714 million on Tuesday and $346 million on Wednesday. The sustained demand lifted year-to-date flows into positive territory for the first time, registering a net $349 million inflow since January. The bullish wave propelled Bitcoin to an eight-month peak of $87,000, signaling renewed institutional conviction after months of sideways price action.

    BlackRock Leads Institutional Demand Amid Cumulative Flow Recovery

    BlackRock’s IBIT fund drove approximately half of the five-day inflow total, underscoring the asset manager’s dominant position in the Bitcoin ETF landscape. The recent surge has significantly repaired cumulative flow metrics that had deteriorated sharply since October 2023. Galaxy Research figures show cumulative flows had contracted by $12 billion, equivalent to 77,800 BTC, during the preceding drawdown. The current rebound has erased roughly half that deficit, with cumulative flows now down only 5.7% from inception highs, standing at approximately $55 billion in total assets despite the crypto winter.

    Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that the recent traction could soon help the cumulative flows (aggregate demand since inception) turn positive too. Seyffart added that the outflows were mainly driven by hedge funds and retail. “By far, the biggest sellers of the ETFs over the last ~year were hedge funds and retail traders/investors.” This distinction highlights a structural shift: while speculative participants exited positions during the downturn, institutional allocators have maintained or expanded exposure, providing a more resilient demand base.

    Macro Headwinds: Bond Yields and Fed Rate Hike Fears

    Despite the ETF momentum, Bitcoin’s advance stalled mid-week as macroeconomic pressures intensified. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.1%, while oil prices ticked higher, reigniting inflation concerns across risk markets. Interest rate traders, per CME FedWatch data, priced a 64% probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting. This repricing dampened risk appetite and dragged Bitcoin from its $87,000 high to below $84,000, a decline of approximately 4% in short order.

    Historical precedent offers a nuanced perspective. In the past, U.S. Treasury intervention plans to control bond yields have been viewed as net inflationary and an overall boost to scarce assets such as BTC and gold. Whether that narrative will hold and drive BTC higher remains to be seen. For the rate hike fears, however, the asset typically remains muted before the Fed decision and tends to push higher afterwards. Market participants are closely monitoring whether the current ETF demand can withstand sustained bond market volatility.

    Technical Analysis: $82K Weekly Close as Key Confirmation Level

    From a technical standpoint, analyst Benjamin Cowen projected that the uptrend could only be confirmed if there is a weekly candlestick close above $82K (May peak). This level, corresponding to Bitcoin’s previous local high from May, serves as a critical structural reference point. A weekly close above this threshold would validate the breakout structure and suggest the recent ETF-driven rally has legs beyond short-term momentum. Conversely, failure to reclaim and hold $82,000 on a weekly basis could expose the asset to further consolidation or retest of lower support levels.

    Why This Matters

    The five-day inflow streak represents the most sustained institutional accumulation since the ETFs’ January launch, suggesting that the “crypto winter” narrative has fundamentally shifted for professional allocators. BlackRock’s outsized participation signals deepening integration of Bitcoin into traditional portfolio construction. However, the immediate price reversal underscores that Bitcoin remains acutely sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations and Treasury market dynamics. The interplay between ETF flow momentum—now structurally positive on a cumulative basis—and macro liquidity conditions will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory through the fourth quarter. Investors should watch the October Fed meeting, weekly close above $82,000, and whether cumulative flows breach inception highs as key catalysts.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    How much have U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated in the recent five-day streak?

    The ETF complex recorded $2.65 billion in net inflows across five consecutive trading days, with $1 billion on Monday, $714 million on Tuesday, and $346 million on Wednesday, per Galaxy Research data.

    Who were the primary sellers during the previous outflow period?

    According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, hedge funds and retail traders/investors were by far the biggest sellers of the ETFs over the last year, driving the $12 billion cumulative flow deficit since October 2023.

    What technical level must Bitcoin reclaim to confirm the uptrend?

    Analyst Benjamin Cowen projects that a weekly candlestick close above $82,000—the May peak—is required to confirm the uptrend structure following the recent ETF-driven rally.

  • Bitcoin Clears Key Hurdle That Historically Preceded Major Bull Runs

    Bitcoin Clears Key Hurdle That Historically Preceded Major Bull Runs

    Key Highlights

    • Bitcoin closed the week ended September 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, signaling a potential trend reversal.
    • The cryptocurrency gained nearly 6% during the week, trading around $81,000 and extending its rebound to 29% over the past 35 days.
    • Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn described the weekly close above the key moving average as “a potentially important confirmation that the market’s bear phase may have run its course and a new uptrend is upon us.”

    Bitcoin Breaks 45-Week Barrier Above Critical 50-Week Moving Average

    Bitcoin (BTC) has cleared a major technical hurdle that had resisted bullish attempts for nearly a year. For the first time since late 2023, the world’s largest cryptocurrency posted a weekly close above its 50-week moving average, a development market analysts are interpreting as a potential confirmation that the prolonged bearish phase has concluded.

    The weekly candlestick close—recorded at 23:59 UTC on Sunday, September 20—shows Bitcoin settling around $81,000 after a weekly gain of nearly 6%. This advance extends the asset’s recovery to approximately 29% over the preceding 35-day period. Unlike previous instances where price action briefly pierced the moving average only to retreat, this week’s candle closed decisively above the indicator, a distinction technical analysts consider significant for trend validation.

    Why the Weekly Close Carries More Weight Than Intraday Tests

    Bitcoin trades continuously across global exchanges, but technical analysis frameworks rely on defined session closes—daily at 00:00 UTC and weekly at 23:59 UTC on Sundays—to construct candlestick charts. A weekly close above a major moving average carries substantially more analytical weight than an intraday or intraweek breach that fails to hold into the close.

    The 50-week moving average represents the arithmetic mean of weekly closing prices over roughly the past year. In Bitcoin market analysis, this metric serves as a widely watched proxy for the asset’s long-term trend direction. When price action sustains above this level on a weekly basis, it historically correlates with the early stages of sustained uptrends; conversely, extended periods below the average typically coincide with bearish or consolidation phases.

    Analyst Perspective: Galaxy Research Signals Trend Shift

    Commenting on the technical development, Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn characterized the weekly close as “a potentially important confirmation that the market’s bear phase may have run its course and a new uptrend is upon us.” Thorn’s assessment underscores the significance market participants attach to the 50-week average as a regime-change indicator rather than merely a short-term support or resistance level.

    Galaxy Digital, the financial services and investment management firm founded by Mike Novogratz, operates Galaxy Research as its dedicated market analysis division. The firm’s commentary often influences institutional sentiment given its focus on digital asset markets and its position as a bridge between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

    Why This Matters

    The 50-week moving average breach represents more than a standalone technical signal; it occurs against a backdrop of evolving macroeconomic conditions, including anticipated shifts in global monetary policy and growing institutional adoption through spot exchange-traded products in major markets. A sustained weekly close above this threshold could attract trend-following capital allocation strategies that use the 50-week average as a systematic entry filter. However, market structure analysts caution that the true test lies in whether Bitcoin can convert the former resistance into support during subsequent weekly candles, particularly if macroeconomic volatility prompts risk-off sentiment across broader financial markets.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the 50-week moving average and why is it significant for Bitcoin?

    The 50-week moving average calculates the average weekly closing price of Bitcoin over approximately the past year. Technical analysts use it as a long-term trend indicator; sustained trading above it typically signals a bullish regime, while extended periods below suggest bearish or consolidation conditions.

    How does a weekly candle close differ from an intraday price move?

    A weekly candle closes at 23:59 UTC every Sunday, capturing the full week’s price action. Analysts consider a weekly close above a key level more reliable than an intraday breach because it reflects sustained conviction across all global trading sessions rather than a temporary liquidity-driven spike.

    What was Bitcoin’s price performance during the week of this breakout?

    Bitcoin rose nearly 6% during the week ended September 20, closing around $81,000. This weekly gain contributed to a broader 29% rebound over the preceding 35-day period.

  • Post-Satoshi Bitcoin Wallet Activates After 2,486,052% Gains

    Post-Satoshi Bitcoin Wallet Activates After 2,486,052% Gains

    Key Highlights

    • A dormant Bitcoin wallet containing 100 BTC ($8.09 million) has been activated after 14.9 years, with the coins moved in block 967732 on September 19, 2026.
    • The wallet address (1Mj5R3kbScUeccyiNKJnAMk6vhHppzsEq8) is attributed to “Noah Doe #3113” by Galaxy Research, linking it to a New York Supreme Court lawsuit seeking quiet title to over 3.7 million BTC across 39,069 addresses.
    • Onchain analysis suggests the 100 BTC were likely mined before the first Bitcoin halving in November 2012, placing the holder among early miners when block rewards were 50 BTC.

    Galaxy Research Identifies Dormant Wallet Movement

    Blockchain analytics firm Galaxy Research reported via its X account on September 19, 2026, that a long-dormant Bitcoin wallet containing exactly 100 BTC has been awakened after more than 14 years of inactivity. The coins were first received on November 2, 2011 — months after Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto exited the public stage — and remained untouched until their recent movement in block 967732.

    🌚 Awakened — dormant 14+ years100.00 $BTC ($8.09M) untouched since first received 2011-11-02 (14.9y ago) — just moved in block 967732Address: 1Mj5R3kbScUeccyiNKJnAMk6vhHppzsEq8Sender Attribution: Noah Doe #3113💰 Realized PnL: +$8.09M (+2,486,052% gain) – basis ~$3 avg -…

    According to Galaxy Research, the transaction represents a realized profit of $8.09 million, reflecting a staggering 2,486,052% gain from an estimated cost basis of approximately $3 per BTC. At the time of the report, Bitcoin traded at $80,347.

    Connection to “Noah Doe” Legal Battle

    The wallet’s attribution to “Noah Doe #3113” ties the movement to a high-profile legal case filed in March 2026 in the New York Supreme Court. The lawsuit, brought by plaintiff “Noah Doe” and two unnamed Wyoming limited liability companies, seeks quiet title to more than 3.7 million BTC associated with 39,069 Bitcoin addresses. The complaint includes coins potentially linked to Satoshi Nakamoto himself.

    The crypto community closely monitored a significant hearing in the “Noah Doe” case on September 8, 2026, just eleven days before this wallet’s activation. The timing has fueled speculation about whether the movement relates to the ongoing litigation, though no direct causal link has been established.

    Pre-Halving Mining Origins Suggested

    Onchain data indicates the 100 BTC stash was likely mined before Bitcoin’s first halving event on November 28, 2012. During the pre-halving era, 10.5 million BTC were issued across 210,000 blocks, with each block producing a 50 BTC coinbase reward. The presence of exactly 100 BTC in a single address — equivalent to two full block rewards — suggests the holder may have been an early Bitcoin miner, though Galaxy Research cautions that no further facts currently support this hypothesis.

    Of the 210,000 original 50 BTC coinbase unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), 172,042 (83.5%) have been spent, with the vast majority moved before 2014. Approximately 33,995 unspent 50 BTC coinbase outputs remain, representing roughly 1.699 million BTC. Notably, an estimated 21,922 of these outputs (1.096 million BTC) are believed to have been mined by Satoshi Nakamoto, accounting for 64.5% of the remaining unspent pre-halving supply.

    Why This Matters

    The awakening of this 14.9-year dormant wallet underscores several converging narratives in the Bitcoin ecosystem. First, it highlights the ongoing resolution of early Bitcoin supply — whether through long-term holder conviction, legal adjudication, or estate settlements. Second, the “Noah Doe” litigation represents an unprecedented attempt to claim ownership of millions of dormant BTC through U.S. court proceedings, potentially setting legal precedent for digital asset property rights. Third, the movement of pre-halving coins provides rare onchain visibility into the behavior of Bitcoin’s earliest participants. With only 33,995 unspent 50 BTC coinbase outputs remaining, each activation reduces the floating supply of Bitcoin’s “genesis era” coins and offers data points for analyzing holder demographics from the network’s formative years.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the “Noah Doe” lawsuit and why does it involve 3.7 million BTC?

    Filed in March 2026 in New York Supreme Court, the lawsuit seeks quiet title — a legal determination of ownership — to over 3.7 million BTC across 39,069 addresses. The plaintiffs, “Noah Doe” and two Wyoming LLCs, claim ownership of these long-dormant coins, some of which may be linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. The case represents one of the largest legal claims over Bitcoin holdings in history.

    How does Galaxy Research attribute wallets to “Noah Doe #3113”?

    Galaxy Research uses onchain analytics and clustering heuristics to label addresses associated with specific entities or legal designations. The “#3113” suffix suggests this wallet is one of thousands cataloged within the “Noah Doe” address cluster identified during the firm’s investigation of the litigation’s scope.

    Why is the pre-halving mining era significant for this wallet?

    Before the first halving in November 2012, each Bitcoin block rewarded miners with 50 BTC. A wallet holding exactly 100 BTC in a single address aligns with two full block rewards, a pattern consistent with early solo mining. With 83.5% of pre-halving coinbase outputs already spent, remaining unspent coins from this era are increasingly rare and historically significant.

  • Crypto VC funding hits $5.68B in Q2, Galaxy says

    Crypto VC funding hits $5.68B in Q2, Galaxy says

    Venture investment in crypto and blockchain companies surged 31% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter, while deal volume rose 10%, according to a September 16 report from Galaxy Research. The rebound pushed total first-half investment to $10.018 billion across 744 deals, putting the industry on pace for roughly $20.037 billion for the full year — slightly below the $20.3 billion recorded in 2025.

    Q2 Rebound Driven by Later-Stage Financing

    The second quarter saw $5.683 billion deployed across 384 deals, a sharp recovery from Q1 when startups received around $4 billion across 355 deals. Galaxy’s Q1 report showed capital falling by about half quarter-over-quarter after a large later-stage financing surge in late 2025.

    The Q2 rebound was larger in dollar terms than in transaction volume. Capital increased 31% while deal count rose only 10%, indicating that larger financings accounted for much of the quarterly increase. Galaxy said the rise was driven primarily by later-stage transactions, with mature companies receiving approximately 78% of the capital invested during the quarter.

    Deal Sizes Reach New Highs

    Galaxy reported a median crypto deal size of roughly $4.9 million in Q2, a new high. However, valuation information was available for only 16% of Q2 transactions and was heavily weighted toward later-stage companies.

    By transaction count, pre-seed rounds accounted for 21% of completed deals, while later-stage investments represented 26%. This distribution produced a large gap between the number of early-stage transactions and the amount of capital committed to mature companies. Early-stage businesses continued to attract deals, but larger financing rounds drove the majority of dollars invested.

    Trading and Exchange Category Dominates Capital Allocation

    Trading, exchange, investing and lending companies received roughly $3.523 billion during the quarter, representing close to three-fifths of all crypto venture capital invested in Q2. DeFi followed with approximately $478 million. More than 90% of the capital invested in the trading, exchange, investing and lending category went to later-stage companies.

    By deal count, trading, exchange, investing and lending companies recorded 51 transactions. DeFi and payments/rewards each recorded 40 deals. Web3, NFT, DAO, metaverse and gaming companies completed 37 deals, followed by tokenization with 36, enterprise blockchain with 34, and infrastructure with 32.

    Bitcoin Price Correlation Remains Weak

    Galaxy’s data shows that the relationship between bitcoin prices and crypto venture activity remains weaker than during the 2017 and 2021 cycles. Bitcoin reached new highs in late 2025 while venture activity moved unevenly, although both bitcoin and venture investment increased during Q2 2026.

    U.S. Companies Capture Lion’s Share of Capital

    U.S.-headquartered companies captured 73.5% of the capital represented in Galaxy’s Q2 dataset. The United Kingdom followed with 4%, while France accounted for 3.2%. The U.S. share was smaller when measured by transaction count: American companies represented 39.1% of the 384 deals, followed by the United Kingdom at 7% and Singapore at 5.7%.

    The geographic concentration was higher than in Q1, when U.S.-based startups received 70.2% of capital and represented 43.5% of completed transactions, according to Galaxy’s earlier report.

    Recent Notable Financing Activity

    Recent financing activity has included transactions involving exchanges, stablecoin payments, and tokenized markets. Payward, the parent company of Kraken, was the largest disclosed crypto funding deal during the September 5–11 period after Nasdaq Ventures agreed to invest $100 million in the company. Latitude raised $35 million in a Series A during the same week to develop stablecoin-based cross-border payment infrastructure, while Antarctic Exchange announced a $7 million financing tied to its derivatives trading platform.

    Fundraising Concentrated Among Fewer New Funds

    Five new crypto-focused funds raised approximately $3.9 billion in Q2, according to Galaxy. The firm said the number of new funds was the lowest for a quarter since Q3 2019. Galaxy cited macroeconomic conditions, investor interest in artificial intelligence, spot crypto exchange-traded products, and digital asset treasury companies as factors competing for allocator capital.

    The report stated that “fund managers still face a difficult environment.”

    The dollar amount raised was higher than the roughly $1.1 billion secured across eight new funds in Q1. Galaxy’s first-quarter report described Q1 as the lowest quarterly new-fund count since Q3 2020. If first-half fundraising continues at the same pace, Galaxy estimates that crypto venture funds could raise around $10 billion during 2026, above the $8.75 billion raised in 2025. The average fund size reached approximately $377.98 million, while the median fund size stood near $80 million.

    Weekly Activity Shows Continued Momentum

    During September 5–11, five disclosed crypto funding deals totaled $151 million, according to crypto.news. Payward’s $100 million transaction accounted for roughly two-thirds of the weekly total. Galaxy’s next quarterly dataset will provide the next measurement of venture activity after the Q2 rebound.

  • New Clues Emerge in Satoshi’s Bitcoin Genesis Block Puzzle, but Mystery Remains

    New Clues Emerge in Satoshi’s Bitcoin Genesis Block Puzzle, but Mystery Remains

    A Bitcoin puzzle built from information in the Genesis Block has attracted attention from blockchain analysts and the wider Bitcoin community, but it remains unsolved.

    Bitcoin puzzle uses data from the Genesis Block

    The puzzle was created on August 23, 2026, using information contained in the Genesis Block created by Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

    According to the Galaxy Research X account, the puzzle was hidden in human-readable text in Bitcoin Block 963,629. Its creator used the information to generate a wallet with extremely low entropy, which he said required no backup.

    Galaxy Research said the puzzle creator answered two questions intended to help others solve the challenge. The first asked whether the witness script was a hash lock, a multisig or something else. The creator indicated that it was a multisig.

    The second question asked how many keys were involved, what threshold applied and how the keys were derived from the Genesis Block. The puzzle creator answered that there were two keys, adding: “both required. The rest is for you to derive.”

    In a follow-up post on August 25, Galaxy Research said the puzzle jackpot had reached 125,779 sats and shared additional clues from the creator:

    “The witness script is a multisig. Two keys, both required. The rest is for you to derive. Both keys use the same Genesis field, and there is no hash. Both keys are derived independently from Genesis.”

    Puzzle jackpot reaches 142,779 sats

    Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn recently highlighted his efforts to solve the Bitcoin puzzle, saying he had been working on it.

    i’ve been working on this puzzle a bitthe jackpot is currently 142,779 sats (~$111)i haven’t myself sent in any requests for hints, but others have. based on the hints, we assume:- a 2-of-2 multisig- both keys from the same Genesis field with no hash applied- derived… https://t.co/afCkDj1Kxe pic.twitter.com/gFo5tFNZcK
    — Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) August 29, 2026

    In the X post, Thorn said the puzzle jackpot stood at 142,779 sats, or nearly $111. He added that he had not personally requested any hints, although other participants had.

    Based on the available clues, Thorn listed the following assumptions:

    “a 2-of-2 multisig, both keys from the same Genesis field with no hash applied, derived independently, along the BIP48 path root > multisig > mainnet > genesis_data > script_type, the field is one The Times newspaper printed.”

    Using these clues, Thorn said he had searched through more than 19.3 billion candidate scripts but eliminated them from consideration.

    Bitcoin’s Genesis Block remains central to the challenge

    The Genesis Block, also known as Block 0, is the first block ever mined on the Bitcoin blockchain. Satoshi Nakamoto mined it on January 3, 2009, and embedded the hidden message, “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks,” a headline published by The Times on the same date.

    The message remains one of Bitcoin’s most recognizable historical artifacts, and its connection to the puzzle is central to the ongoing challenge.

    The Bitcoin puzzle remains unsolved, but Thorn invited others working on it to collaborate in an effort to claim the jackpot.

  • Bitcoin Whale’s BTC Holdings Begin Moving After 15 Years of Dormancy

    Bitcoin Whale’s BTC Holdings Begin Moving After 15 Years of Dormancy

    Six long-dormant Bitcoin wallets created between 2011 and 2014 have become active again, according to data from Galaxy Research. Between August 16 and 26, the wallets transferred a combined 553.59 $BTC, worth approximately $40 million at current prices.

    Bitcoin wallets inactive for more than 15 years move funds

    One of the wallets had reportedly been inactive for more than 15 years. Its renewed activity indicates that some Bitcoin holdings from the cryptocurrency’s earliest years are beginning to move on-chain again.

    Galaxy Research found that five of the six wallets transferred their Bitcoin to addresses not associated with any known cryptocurrency exchange. As a result, there is no clear evidence that the transactions were intended as direct sales.

    The remaining wallet transferred 40 $BTC to Boerse Stuttgart Digital, a Germany-based provider of cryptocurrency custody and transaction services. However, the transfer does not necessarily indicate that the Bitcoin was sold. The assets may instead have been moved into custody or transferred for another institutional transaction purpose.

    ‘Sleeping Bitcoin’ activity reaches its lowest level since 2022

    Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said on-chain activity involving long-dormant Bitcoin has declined significantly in recent months. Thorn said activity among legacy coins, described as “sleeping Bitcoin,” fell to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2022 by the second quarter of 2026.

    Thorn also expects the total value of transfers from Bitcoin wallets that have been inactive for long periods throughout 2026 to be less than half the level recorded last year.

    This is not investment advice.