Daily News 19

Tag: FOMC meeting

  • Wall Street Banks Revise Forecasts for Fed’s Next Rate Move

    Wall Street Banks Revise Forecasts for Fed’s Next Rate Move

    Key Highlights

    • Major Wall Street banks have shifted to more hawkish rate forecasts following the Federal Reserve’s September 25 basis point hike, with the median analyst prediction now pointing to one additional 25 basis point increase.
    • Forecasts are split on timing: NatWest, Swedbank, and Goldman Sachs see an October hike, while Standard Chartered and Commerzbank target December; Morgan Stanley projects two more hikes by Q1 2027.
    • A notable divide persists: ING, SEB, and Citi maintain the September move was the cycle peak, while JPMorgan, Barclays, UBS, and others expect only 25 basis points more, versus 50 basis points from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and others.

    Wall Street Recalibrates Fed Rate Path After September Meeting

    The Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, which delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate increase, has triggered a broad reassessment across Wall Street’s leading financial institutions. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NatWest, Rabobank, Swedbank, and Commerzbank have all shifted their forward guidance in a more hawkish direction, reflecting the central bank’s signaling that inflation remains sticky enough to warrant further tightening. While the consensus has coalesced around at least one more rate hike, the dispersion in timing and terminal rate expectations underscores deep uncertainty about the trajectory of monetary policy into 2024 and beyond.

    Divergent Timing: October Versus December for Next Move

    The most immediate point of contention among strategists is the calendar. NatWest and Swedbank have penciled in a 25 basis point increase for the Federal Open Market Committee’s October gathering, a view now shared by Goldman Sachs, which also pushed out its projected rate cuts to September and December 2027 and March 2028. Standard Chartered and Commerzbank, by contrast, have slotted their additional hike into the December meeting. Morgan Stanley stands out with a more aggressive call, forecasting a cumulative 50 basis points of further tightening—two quarter-point moves—by the first quarter of 2027. The median of analyst predictions compiled across the Street aligns with a single 25 basis point increase from current levels, but the range of projected meeting dates spans October through December.

    Terminal Rate Split: 25 Versus 50 Basis Points of Additional Tightening

    Beyond timing, firms are divided on the total magnitude of remaining hikes. A cohort including ANZ, Bank of America, RBC, TD Securities, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Société Générale anticipates a full 50 basis points of additional tightening. Another group—JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Standard Chartered—sees the cycle ending after just 25 more basis points. On the dovish fringe, ING, SEB, and Citigroup argue the September increase marked the terminal rate, projecting no further hikes in the near term. This fragmentation has eroded the previously dominant “one-and-done” narrative, shifting market focus squarely onto whether the next move arrives in October or December.

    Why This Matters

    The recalibration of Wall Street’s rate forecasts carries direct implications for asset allocation, corporate financing costs, and global capital flows. A higher-for-longer rate environment pressures equity valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities, while supporting the U.S. dollar and lifting yields across the Treasury curve. For businesses, the widened spread between the 25 and 50 basis point camps translates into material uncertainty around the cost of capital for 2024 investment planning. Policymakers at the Fed will closely monitor financial conditions indices as they weigh the lagged effects of 525 basis points of cumulative tightening since March 2022 against resilient labor markets and persistent core inflation. The next Critical Consumer Price Index and employment reports ahead of the November 1 FOMC meeting will likely determine whether the October hike scenario gains traction or the December camp prevails.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the current median Wall Street forecast for additional Fed rate hikes?
    The median analyst prediction points to one more 25 basis point increase from current levels, though institutions are split between October and December for the timing.
    Which major banks believe the Fed has already finished hiking rates?
    ING, SEB, and Citigroup maintain that the September 25 basis point hike was the final move in the current tightening cycle and do not expect another increase in the near future.
    How have Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley updated their rate projections?
    Goldman Sachs now expects a 25 basis point hike in October and has delayed its forecast for rate cuts to late 2027 and early 2028. Morgan Stanley projects two additional 25 basis point hikes totaling 50 basis points by the first quarter of 2027.
  • Fed Decision to Determine Gold’s Next Move: XAUUSD Risks $4,355 Rejection or Eyes $4,388 Breakout

    Fed Decision to Determine Gold’s Next Move: XAUUSD Risks $4,355 Rejection or Eyes $4,388 Breakout

    Fed Rate Decision Looms as Key Catalyst for Gold Price Direction

    The Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest rate decision stands as the pivotal event for gold markets this week, with traders closely monitoring XAUUSD for signs of a decisive breakout or rejection following the FOMC announcement. Gold has rebounded from the $4,300 level to trade between $4,335 and $4,345 as markets price in a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike.

    The central question for gold traders centers on whether Fed guidance, U.S. dollar movements, and Treasury yield reactions will push prices below the $4,355 resistance or provide sufficient momentum for a sustained break above $4,388.

    FOMC Meeting Schedule and Market Expectations

    The Federal Reserve’s September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting concludes with a policy announcement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 16. The release will be followed by the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the updated “dot plot,” and a press conference with Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 PM ET.

    Markets are assigning approximately a 92% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase, suggesting the immediate rate decision itself is unlikely to drive significant XAUUSD volatility. Instead, the gold price trajectory after the Fed decision will depend heavily on how the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields respond to the central bank’s forward guidance on the future policy path.

    Why Fed Guidance Drives Gold Price Action

    Gold’s price sensitivity to real interest rates and the U.S. dollar remains the fundamental driver. As a non-yielding asset, gold’s opportunity cost rises when real yields surge and the dollar strengthens. A hawkish surprise from the Fed could push yields higher and firm the dollar, pressuring XAUUSD lower. Conversely, a restrained or “one-and-done” policy message could ease yield and dollar pressures, supporting a relief rally in gold.

    At press time, spot gold was trading at $4,341.50, with traders awaiting either a rejection of the $4,355–$4,388 resistance zone or a move higher. The initial market reaction may involve a liquidity sweep near Monday’s $4,355 peak before a clearer directional move emerges. Key support levels to monitor if gold reverses include $4,304, $4,292, and $4,253.

    Dot Plot and Chair Warsh’s Commentary in Focus

    The updated dot plot will be scrutinized for any indication of a higher median rate path through 2026–2027. If projections signal continued tightening, or if Chair Warsh emphasizes persistent inflation risks and a readiness to hike further, Treasury yields could climb and the dollar could strengthen, creating headwinds for gold. More restrained forecasts, however, could alleviate yield and dollar pressures, allowing XAUUSD to stabilize or recover.

    Resistance Zone Analysis: $4,355–$4,388

    A Fed-driven strengthening of the U.S. dollar or rise in Treasury yields following the announcement could trigger a rejection of XAUUSD from the $4,355–$4,388 resistance zone. A price move above $4,355 that fails to hold above that level would constitute a liquidity sweep rather than a genuine breakout.

    Should rejection occur below $4,355, the resistance zone remains intact and exposes the aforementioned support levels at $4,304, $4,292, and $4,253. However, a sustained break above $4,388 would invalidate the rejection scenario and shift market attention toward the $4,443 target.

    Identifying a Liquidity Sweep vs. True Breakout

    A move above $4,355 signals a liquidity sweep rather than a legitimate gold breakout if XAUUSD quickly falls back below the level. In the event of a Fed-triggered reversal, traders should monitor $4,304, $4,292, and $4,253 as critical XAUUSD support levels.

    Conversely, sustained acceptance above $4,388 would confirm stronger upside momentum and shift the gold price forecast higher, with $4,443 becoming the next technical target. The $4,355 and $4,388 levels therefore represent the critical inflection points for gold prices following the Fed decision.

    Source: TradingView

  • Clarity Law Fails, Bitcoin and Altcoins Drop; Analysts Say “Don’t Worry About It,” Outline Recovery Needs

    Clarity Law Fails, Bitcoin and Altcoins Drop; Analysts Say “Don’t Worry About It,” Outline Recovery Needs

    The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed to advance in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, falling short of the 60-vote threshold required to proceed. The procedural vote tally stood at 49 in favor and 50 against, effectively stalling the comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.

    The outcome triggered immediate sell-offs across Bitcoin and altcoin markets. However, analysts speaking to The Block characterized the legislative setback as a delay rather than a structural shift for the crypto sector, emphasizing that macroeconomic forces—particularly Federal Reserve monetary policy—remain the primary driver of medium-to-long-term market direction.

    “The Failure of the Law to Pass is Not a Structural Problem”

    Arctic Digital Research President Justin d’Anethan told The Block that while the CLARITY Act’s failure was disappointing, it does not signal a fundamental market problem.

    d’Anethan pointed out that current Bitcoin price levels and previous all-time highs were achieved before the Clarity Act was in effect. He noted that institutional investors view the development not as a complete failure of the regulatory framework, but rather as a delay in the regulatory timeline. According to the analyst, interest rates and the overall monetary policy environment may be more decisive than regulatory clarity in determining the direction of the crypto market.

    Regulation Not a Key Determinant in Current Cycle

    BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas offered a parallel assessment, stating that regulatory efforts are not a key determinant in the current crypto market cycle and that the market is more sensitive to interest rates.

    Lucas identified three critical areas for investors to monitor in the coming period:

    “1) Whether the Fed’s expected interest rate hikes will mark the beginning of a longer period of tightening, 2) Whether capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will accelerate again, 3) Whether an alternative regulatory path will emerge that can proceed without requiring 60 Senate votes.”

    Lucas added that capital is not exiting the market but concentrating in specific assets. While Congress is not strictly necessary for a fourth-quarter recovery, the analyst stressed that a prerequisite for such a rebound is for interest rates not to worsen further.

    “All Eyes Are on the FED Today!”

    Market attention has now pivoted squarely to the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023 at today’s FOMC meeting, with a 25-basis-point increase widely anticipated. Futures markets are pricing in a higher than 90% probability of a hike at this session, with an additional increase projected before year-end.

    This is not investment advice.

  • FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Expected to Hike Rates 25 Bps – Will Bitcoin Drop Again?

    FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Expected to Hike Rates 25 Bps – Will Bitcoin Drop Again?

    Fed Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points

    Crypto markets are already under pressure ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with Bitcoin trading below $75,000. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, a move that is largely priced in. Traders are now focused on Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for clues on future rate hikes and whether another wave of selling could hit Bitcoin.

    The FOMC will announce its decision at 2:00 PM EDT, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM EDT. Markets are pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, which would move the federal funds rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This would be the Fed’s first rate hike in three years.

    🚨 REMINDER: 🇺🇸 FED INTEREST RATE DECISION TODAY AT 2:00 PM ET!
    Current: 3.50% – 3.75%
    Forecast: 3.75% – 4.00%
    HIKE → MARKETS DROP HARD
    HOLD → MARKETS RALLY
    CUT → MARKETS RALLY HARD
    PRESS CONFERENCE AT 2:30 PM ET!
    pic.twitter.com/Du0sWRoIBp
    — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) September 16, 2026

    However, traders are already looking beyond today’s decision. They are watching Warsh’s comments for signals about future rate hikes. The markets have shifted from expecting two hikes to pricing in at least three by June 2027. Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida warned that another hike could follow.

    “If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones. This is certainly not one and done.”

    CLARITY Act Failure Adds More Pressure

    The Fed’s decision comes as the crypto market deals with another setback. On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, weakening a major regulatory catalyst for the market. Even after a last-minute substitute text included 126 bipartisan changes, lawmakers could not overcome major political and ideological differences. Prediction markets now put the bill’s 2026 passage odds at around 12%.

    Following the setback, the total crypto market fell more than 3%, while Bitcoin dropped below $75,000. The decline also triggered around $770 million in liquidations, adding more selling pressure from leveraged long positions.

    Bitcoin Could Face More Selling If Warsh Sounds Hawkish

    The biggest risk for crypto may not be the 25-basis-point increase itself, because traders have already priced it in. Instead, Bitcoin could face more selling if Warsh signals that more hikes are coming or the Fed’s updated projections point to tighter policy for longer. Such a signal could strengthen the dollar, lift bond yields, and push investors away from riskier assets. Bitcoin has already fallen below $76,000, now trading around $75,860.

  • Wall Street Bets on Fed Rate Hike: What It Means for Bitcoin, Bonds, and Trump

    Wall Street Bets on Fed Rate Hike: What It Means for Bitcoin, Bonds, and Trump

    Federal Reserve Poised for First Rate Hike Since 2023 Amid Inflation Pressure

    Wall Street is bracing for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday, a move that would mark the first increase since 2023. The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting this week, and CME’s FedWatch tool places the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at 94.5%, up from under 50% just a month ago. Such a move would lift the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4% from the current 3.50%–3.75%.

    Wall Street Consensus Shifts Rapidly Toward Tightening

    The shift from unlikely to near-universal expectation happened quickly. A Wall Street Journal survey published this week found nearly every major bank now anticipates a hike on Wednesday. Most institutions—including Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS—forecast 50 basis points of total tightening by year-end. Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC are more hawkish, calling for 75 basis points of tightening in 2026. Goldman Sachs sits at the dovish end of the hiking camp, penciling in only this week’s quarter-point increase. Jefferies and Oxford Economics remain outliers, forecasting a rate cut in December and in 2027, respectively.

    Higher rates increase borrowing costs, dampen spending, and pressure assets that thrive on cheap capital, such as equities and Bitcoin. They also boost yields on safe government bonds, drawing capital away from riskier investments. However, market anxiety stems less from the hike itself than from uncertainty about the trajectory of future moves. Markets are repricing now, ahead of the Fed’s communication, to account for that ambiguity.

    Inflation and Labor Data Drive the Decision

    The case for tightening rests on persistent inflation. Headline CPI ran at 3.4% annually in August, with core inflation at 2.5%—both comfortably above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil prices, elevated by the ongoing conflict with Iran, have added a layer of price pressure that neither tariffs nor rate cuts can easily offset.

    The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in July, but that decision passed by a narrow 9–3 vote, with three policymakers already advocating for a hike at the time. That internal split, combined with a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, tilted the committee toward tightening heading into this week’s meeting.

    Political Tension Mounts as Trump Pressures Fed Chair

    The impending hike places Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a difficult position. President Donald Trump handpicked Warsh for the role in January and, at his swearing-in ceremony in May, urged him to be “totally independent” while making clear he expected lower rates. That expectation has not materialized—at least not in the way Trump likely meant by “totally independent.”

    In the past two weeks, Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have all publicly pushed for rate cuts. Trump went as far as threatening to halt trade with countries running surpluses with the U.S. if rates do not come down. Warsh has stated the president has had no influence on Fed decisions.

    The rate decision lands two months before the November midterms, where polls already show voters frustrated with high prices and borrowing costs. The tightening cycle arrives in part because of the tariff and Iran-conflict policies Trump himself has championed.

    Bond Markets Price In Higher-for-Longer Rates

    Bond markets have not waited for Wednesday’s announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04% this week, its highest level since July 2007, as traders priced in both the hike and a prolonged period of elevated rates. The two-year yield, more sensitive to Fed policy, hit its highest level since July 2024. Higher yields make Treasurys more attractive relative to risk assets and tend to strengthen the dollar—a headwind for assets like cryptocurrency that benefit from abundant liquidity.

    Bitcoin and Altcoins Enter Decision Week Under Pressure

    Crypto markets approach the Fed decision already weakened. On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded around $75,700, down roughly 3.2% on the day after the Clarity Act—crypto’s long-awaited market structure legislation—failed a Senate cloture vote. Bitcoin remains well below its September peak near $82,000.

    Technical analysts highlight $73,200 as a critical level: a daily close below it could open the door to $71,000 and even $66,900, negating the bullish structure that recently triggered a golden cross pattern.

    Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingView

    Not all analysts view a hike as purely bearish. Some argue a quarter-point move aimed primarily at anchoring long-term Treasury yields—rather than genuinely tightening financial conditions—could leave crypto’s medium-term outlook largely intact. In this view, the market’s reaction hinges on whether the decision and Warsh’s tone during the press conference surprise relative to what is already priced in.

    Higher-beta altcoins are expected to experience sharper percentage swings than Bitcoin in either direction, given thinner liquidity and heavier leverage.

    Key Events to Watch Wednesday

    The Fed’s policy statement and updated dot plot are due at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Traders will scrutinize whether officials still pencil in just one more hike this year or something closer to the two additional moves Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC now project.

  • Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Rally Threatened as September 16 Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 86%

    Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Rally Threatened as September 16 Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 86%

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are bracing for a fresh macroeconomic headwind as market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have climbed sharply.

    Bitcoin Faces Key Test Ahead of September FOMC Decision

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point increase has surged in recent sessions, reflecting sticky inflation data and resilient labor-market readings that have pushed traders to reprice the terminal-rate outlook. The shift puts risk assets—including the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization—on alert for heightened volatility in the days leading up to the policy announcement.

    Rate-Hike Expectations Reaccelerate

    Fed futures now show a materially higher chance of a hike compared with a week ago, when the consensus leaned strongly toward a pause. The repricing follows a run of economic releases—including consumer-price-index and producer-price-index reports—that came in above forecast, reviving concerns that the central bank’s disinflation progress has stalled.

    Crypto Market Implications

    Bitcoin, often viewed as a liquidity-sensitive asset, has historically sold off when rate-hike expectations rise, as higher discount rates pressure valuations across the risk spectrum. Ethereum and XRP tend to exhibit even higher beta to macro shifts, amplifying downside moves during hawkish repricing episodes. Traders are monitoring key technical levels on BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and XRP/USD pairs for signs of trend exhaustion or breakout confirmation once the FOMC statement and accompanying Summary of Economic Projections are released.

    What to Watch on September 16

    • Policy rate decision: Whether the Fed raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points or holds steady.
    • Dot-plot projections: Updated median forecasts for the policy path through 2024 and beyond.
    • Chair Powell’s press conference: Tone on inflation persistence, labor-market tightness, and the reaction function for future meetings.

    Market participants will parse every word for clues on whether the hiking cycle has truly ended or if one more increase remains on the table before a prolonged pause. The outcome will likely set the near-term trajectory for digital-asset prices as well as traditional risk markets.

  • Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 87% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

    Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 87% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

    Federal Reserve officials face a critical policy test next week as financial markets now assign an 87% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting. The sharp repricing follows August consumer price index data that showed inflation remaining stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. With Bitcoin trading near $77,256, cryptocurrency traders are assessing how tighter monetary policy could influence digital asset flows.

    Markets Sharply Reprice September Hike Odds

    Rate futures indicate an 87% chance of a hike, up from 72% just a day earlier. Nearly all economists surveyed now expect a quarter-point move, a dramatic reversal from earlier consensus. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate currently sits at 3.50%–3.75%.

    Before the latest inflation report, most economists anticipated a pause, citing easing price pressures and the approaching U.S. midterm elections. Only 13 of 48 economists had penciled in a September increase. Hotter-than-expected core inflation upended that view. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI rose 3.4%, matching forecasts, while core CPI held at 2.4%, also in line with estimates.

    Heather Long: September Hike “Almost Locked In”

    Chief economist Heather Long described a September increase as “almost locked in,” warning that the risk of entrenched inflation continues to grow. Long reinforced the call on social media:

    A September Fed rate hike is almost locked in now
    85% chance the Fed hikes next week.
    It’s the right call. The risks are growing that inflation remains entrenched (or keeps broadening). Fed Chair Warsh doesn’t want to make the same mistake Powell did of waiting too long to… pic.twitter.com/RdGcjhTP4G

    — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 11, 2026

    If enacted, the move would mark the first Federal Reserve rate increase in three years.

    Traders Now See Multiple Hikes Through 2027

    The repricing extends well beyond September. Futures markets now imply at least three rate hikes through June 2027, up from two previously, with a base case of four increases by July 2027. That trajectory represents a stark turnaround from the start of 2026, when investors were pricing in four rate cuts over the same horizon.

    Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida emphasized the likelihood of a sustained tightening cycle:

    “If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones.”

    “It would not be a ‘one and done’ move.”

    The shift signals a higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook as investors brace for prolonged inflation-fighting efforts.

    Implications for Bitcoin and Crypto Markets

    Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of riskier assets, as investors can earn competitive yields from safer instruments such as government bonds. That dynamic can drain capital from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader cryptocurrency complex.

    Despite the hawkish repricing, digital assets rallied on the inflation data. Bitcoin briefly approached $77,500, while Ether climbed above $2,511, suggesting near-term momentum may be decoupling from rate expectations.

  • Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin’s Daily Golden Cross Fails as Hawkish Fed Expectations Trigger Pullback

    Bitcoin’s brief daily golden cross collapsed Friday evening as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) slipped back below the 200-day EMA, reversing a bullish signal that had confirmed earlier in the session. The cryptocurrency retreated to $77,438 after reaching an intraday high near $79,837, tracking a sharp repricing in interest-rate markets following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

    Rate-Hike Odds Surge After CPI Release

    The pullback coincides with a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed core monthly inflation at 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast. In response, CME FedWatch Tool data indicates the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting spiked from roughly 69% immediately after the data release to 86.5% within hours.

    A rate increase would typically trigger a risk-off move, pressuring assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks. Despite the intraday reversal, Bitcoin remains up 1.19% on the day.

    Daily Candle Structure: Volatile Round Trip

    Friday’s daily candle opened at $76,529, surged to $79,837, dropped to a low of $76,040, and settled near $77,438. That volatility was sufficient to flip the daily EMA crossover back to bearish after the 50-day average had briefly pierced above the 200-day average—a pattern traders call a golden cross, widely regarded as a strong bullish signal. Bitcoin had not printed a daily golden cross since November 2024.

    Why the Golden Cross Flickered

    A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average (the 50-day, based on the last 50 daily closes) crosses above a longer-term one (the 200-day). It is among the most watched trend signals across markets, historically preceding significant Bitcoin rallies. However, it is a lagging indicator constructed entirely from past prices. When the two averages trade in close proximity—as they do now—intraday swings can toggle the signal on and off within a single session.

    Today’s push to $79,837 lifted the 50-day EMA above the 200-day, and the subsequent retreat to $77,438 pulled it back under. For daily chart watchers, the episode underscores how fragile such crossovers can be when the averages sit near each other. The daily candle remains open, so the reading could flip again before the close.

    Underlying Trend Strength Remains Intact

    Despite the moving-average whipsaw, broader trend metrics support a constructive outlook. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength irrespective of direction, reads 45 on the daily chart—well above the 25 threshold that separates a genuine trend from noise. Positive directional movement continues to outpace negative.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator scaled 0–100, sits at 55.5 on the daily timeframe, holding on the bullish side of neutral (above 50). Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions; below 30 indicates oversold.

    4-Hour Chart: Bullish Structure Persists, Momentum Cools

    Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour timeframe never lost its golden cross. The 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, preserving a bullish structure that formed in late August. However, short-term momentum has deteriorated:

    • RSI: Dropped to 43.3, entering bearish territory.
    • Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Fired after days of compression, with volatility expanding 3.95%—a pattern that often precedes a sharp directional move, currently to the downside.
    • ADX: Stands at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, signaling a much weaker intraday trend compared to the daily reading of 45.

    The bigger picture still leans bullish. The 4-hour golden cross has held since late August, and the daily ADX at 45 confirms a robust trend is in place even as the moving-average label flips back and forth on a single volatile session.

    Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

  • Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Plunge as US PPI Surges to 5.4%, Fed Rate‑Hike Odds Hit 74%

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Plunge as US PPI Surges to 5.4%, Fed Rate‑Hike Odds Hit 74%

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP extended their losing streak on Thursday after fresh U.S. inflation data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. The renewed sell-off across major cryptocurrencies highlights the asset class’s continued sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and central bank signaling.

    Inflation Data Triggers Rate-Hike Bets

    The latest consumer price figures came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the narrative that the Fed’s tightening cycle may not be over. Markets quickly repriced the probability of a rate hike at the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, sending risk assets — including digital assets — lower.

    Crypto Market Reacts to Macro Pressure

    Bitcoin slipped below key technical levels, while Ethereum and XRP mirrored the downturn. The correlation between crypto and equities remains elevated, meaning that any hawkish tilt from the Fed tends to weigh on both traditional and digital risk markets simultaneously.

    FOMC Meeting in Focus

    Traders are now laser-focused on the September 15–16 FOMC gathering. A rate increase — or even hawkish forward guidance — could prolong the current correction in crypto prices. Conversely, a pause with dovish undertones might provide a short-term relief rally.

    The September 15-16 FOMC meeting could be weighed on risk assets on the crypto market.

  • Bitcoin Faces Critical Two Weeks as Wintermute Reveals Key Price Levels: “The Next Two Weeks Are Very Critical,” and “Below This Is…

    Bitcoin Faces Critical Two Weeks as Wintermute Reveals Key Price Levels: “The Next Two Weeks Are Very Critical,” and “Below This Is…

    Bitcoin rose above $81,000 last week before falling back to approximately $78,000 after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech in Jackson Hole. With BTC trading near $78,000 in recent days, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute has outlined its latest expectations for Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin Could Trade Between $75,000 and $82,000 Before the Fed Meeting

    Wintermute expects Bitcoin to remain between $75,000 and $82,000 until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15–16.

    According to Wintermute’s latest market analysis, Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting increased expectations of a September rate hike to 64.4%. The company expects the September FOMC meeting to become a major catalyst for risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies.

    Wintermute said market expectations for interest rates will be a decisive factor in Bitcoin’s next move. Economic data due during the first two weeks of September could significantly alter those expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting.

    US nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled for release on September 4, will be closely watched for its potential impact on interest-rate expectations and the direction of BTC.

    $82,000 Resistance Remains Key for Bitcoin

    Wintermute also noted that Bitcoin has faced repeated selling pressure near $82,000 following its recent rally. The company identified the following key levels:

    “$82,000: As a significant resistance$75,000: As the first significant support$72,000: As a critical support”

    Wintermute warned that a weekly Bitcoin close below $72,000 could alter the current market outlook. Below that level, the company sees no clearly defined support zone, potentially increasing the risk of further declines.

    In the current market environment, Wintermute considers a pullback toward $75,000 a healthier short-term move for Bitcoin. Such a decline could clear leveraged positions before the market makes another attempt to move higher.

    Based on this outlook, Wintermute expects Bitcoin to consolidate within the $75,000–$82,000 range until the September FOMC meeting.

    This is not investment advice.