Daily News 19

Tag: Cryptocurrency price analysis

  • Ethereum Exchange Supply Hits Record Low, Fueling ETH Price Speculation

    Ethereum Exchange Supply Hits Record Low, Fueling ETH Price Speculation

    Key Highlights

    • Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to a historic low of 3.49% of total supply, with 1.16% withdrawn since June 1, according to Santiment data.
    • Approximately 35% of ETH is now staked, while decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols absorb significant additional supply, reducing centralized exchange liquidity.
    • Analysts caution that declining exchange balances alone do not guarantee price appreciation, as staking withdrawals or renewed exchange deposits could quickly reverse the supply dynamic.

    Ethereum Exchange Supply Hits Record Low Amid Staking and DeFi Migration

    On-chain analytics provider Santiment reports that the percentage of Ethereum (ETH) held on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to just 3.49% of the total circulating supply, marking the lowest level recorded. The data reveals that an amount equivalent to 1.16% of the entire ETH supply has been withdrawn from trading platforms since June 1, signaling a sustained shift away from custodial holdings. This decline follows a volatile period for the asset: after breaking its 2021 all-time high in August 2025, ETH experienced a sharp correction in 2026, falling to price levels around $1,500.

    Staking and DeFi Drive Structural Supply Shift

    The migration of ETH off exchanges is not solely driven by holder sentiment. Santiment highlights that staking and decentralized finance (DeFi) activity play a major role in the supply redistribution. Approximately 35% of all ETH is currently staked, locking those tokens into the network’s consensus mechanism rather than leaving them available for immediate sale on centralized venues. Additional supply is deployed across DeFi protocols for lending, borrowing, and yield generation, further reducing the float accessible on traditional order books. This structural relocation means a growing portion of ETH is utilized within blockchain-native applications instead of sitting on exchange wallets.

    Price Implications: Sensitivity Over Certainty

    A shrinking exchange reserve typically indicates a reduction in the immediately available sell-side supply, which can amplify price movements during periods of strong buying pressure. With fewer coins on order books, large market orders may produce more pronounced price swings. However, Santiment and market observers emphasize that low exchange balances should not be interpreted as an outright bullish signal. The liquid supply can rebound rapidly if stakers unstake en masse, DeFi positions are liquidated, or holders redeposit funds to exchanges to capture profits or hedge risk. Consequently, the trajectory of ETH price depends on the interplay between exchange flows, staking participation rates, DeFi utilization, and fresh demand entering the market.

    Why This Matters

    The ongoing decline in Ethereum exchange reserves reflects a maturation of the asset’s holder base and infrastructure. As staking becomes mainstream — reinforced by the Shanghai and subsequent upgrades enabling withdrawals — and DeFi ecosystems deepen, the traditional metric of exchange supply loses some of its predictive power for short-term price action. Investors and analysts must now monitor a broader dashboard: validator queue dynamics, liquid staking token (LST) adoption, DeFi total value locked (TVL), and net exchange flows in concert. The current 3.49% exchange supply ratio represents a multi-year low, but the market’s next directional move will hinge on whether new demand absorbs the illiquid supply or whether latent supply re-enters centralized venues.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What percentage of Ethereum supply is currently on exchanges?

    According to Santiment, only 3.49% of the total Ethereum supply is held on centralized exchanges as of the latest data, the lowest level on record.

    Why is ETH leaving exchanges if the price fell to $1,500 in 2026?

    The outflow is driven primarily by structural factors: approximately 35% of ETH is staked for network security, and significant additional supply is deployed in DeFi protocols. These movements are largely independent of short-term price action.

    Does low exchange supply guarantee ETH price will rise?

    No. While reduced exchange reserves can increase price sensitivity to buying pressure, supply can return to exchanges quickly through staking withdrawals, DeFi liquidations, or holder deposits. Price direction depends on the balance of all supply sources and demand.

  • Dogecoin Whales Accumulate 240M DOGE: Why Is Price Still Falling?

    Dogecoin Whales Accumulate 240M DOGE: Why Is Price Still Falling?

    Dogecoin Whales Accumulate 240M DOGE Amid Correction, But Derivative Selling Pressure Persists

    Dogecoin ($DOGE) has remained in a retracement phase over the past three weeks, with the price correction showing no immediate signs of ending. The decline mirrors broader weakness across the memecoin sector, where the top ten assets by market capitalization all traded in negative territory over the last 24 hours.

    Spot Whale Accumulation Intensifies at Discounted Levels

    On-chain data reveals that large holders are using the pullback to increase positions. The number of $DOGE tokens held by whales rose from 18.72 billion to approximately 19 billion over the past week. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, spot holders purchased over 240 million $DOGE tokens worth more than $20 million during this period.

    Source: Ali Martinez/X

    While this accumulation signals growing confidence ahead of a potential rebound, analysts caution that buying activity alone does not guarantee immediate price appreciation. The current price action reflects a market awaiting exhaustion of selling pressure before a directional move.

    Technical Outlook: 0.618 Fibonacci Level Tested as Key Support

    On the 4-hour chart, Dogecoin is trading near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the prior rally between $0.07 and $0.10. Bulls are encountering resistance at $0.085, which aligns with the 50% retracement level. The lower boundary of the recent sideways range sits at $0.082, identified as the most recent demand zone that previously propelled price to $0.095.

    Source: $DOGE/USDT on TradingView

    Maintaining support above $0.080 and clearing the $0.085 resistance would reopen the path toward $0.10. However, market structure remains mildly bearish. A decisive break below $0.080 would reinforce downside risks. Supporting this view, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator flashed red at press time, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 remains 10 points above oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure has not yet fully exhausted.

    Derivative Data Reveals Profit-Taking and Leveraged Unwinding

    Data from CryptoQuant shows that large whales have dominated the Futures Average Order Size since $DOGE reached $0.10 on August 22, indicating profit-taking by major holders following the rally. Further analysis of the Futures Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) confirms that sellers have been the dominant force in derivatives markets.

    Source: CryptoQuant

    Compounding the bearish signals, Open Interest (OI) has declined across major exchanges including Binance, OKX, Bybit, KuCoin, and Gate. On KuCoin Futures alone, $DOGE open interest fell by 5%, according to CoinGlass data. The combination of leveraged profit-taking, declining OI, and persistent derivative selling explains why prices continue to fall despite notable spot accumulation by whales.

    Summary

    • Whales accumulated over 240 million $DOGE in the past week during the correction.
    • $DOGE is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a historically significant bounce zone.
    • Technical indicators show selling pressure remains unexhausted, with RSI at 40 and BBP negative.
    • Futures data points to large-holder profit-taking and broad-based Open Interest decline as primary drivers of the downtrend.