Daily News 19

Tag: Crypto market sell-off

  • Crypto Market Plunges as Fed Rate Hike Odds Surpass 92%

    Crypto Market Plunges as Fed Rate Hike Odds Surpass 92%

    The cryptocurrency market shed more than 2% of its total value on Sept. 15, dragging Bitcoin below the $76,000 threshold as traders braced for a widely expected Federal Reserve rate hike and a pivotal Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.

    Broad-based sell-off hits digital assets

    Data showed the aggregate crypto market capitalization falling to approximately $2.6 trillion as investors reduced risk exposure ahead of two major U.S. catalysts. Bitcoin declined over 3% after failing to sustain earlier gains, and losses extended across major altcoins. U.S.-listed companies with direct crypto exposure — including Strategy, Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood — also came under selling pressure.

    Fed rate hike odds surge above 92%

    The decline accelerated as markets priced in the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Sept. 15–16. Federal funds futures implied a probability above 92% for a 25-basis-point increase, effectively making a hike the baseline expectation rather than a tail risk.

    A quarter-point move would lift the Fed’s target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. The decision is due Sept. 16, followed by remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that could signal whether officials view the increase as a one-off response to inflation or the start of a prolonged tightening cycle.

    Earlier on Sept. 15, crypto.news reported the implied probability of a quarter-point hike had climbed to 86.5% from 69.4% the previous Friday, surpassing 92% as the meeting approached — a rapid recalibration of rate expectations.

    Inflation concerns drive tighter policy bets

    Expectations for restrictive policy have grown alongside renewed anxiety over U.S. inflation. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both forecast a 25-basis-point increase at the September meeting, according to reports cited in earlier coverage. Morgan Stanley anticipates a quarter-point hike in September and another in December, linking its outlook to persistent inflation, higher oil prices, and robust demand tied to artificial intelligence investment, Reuters reported.

    Higher borrowing costs typically dampen appetite for non-yielding assets. After a rate increase, investors can earn more from Treasury securities, raising the hurdle for holding volatile assets such as Bitcoin. Elevated policy rates also increase the cost of leveraged positions, potentially prompting crypto traders using borrowed funds to deleverage. A stronger U.S. dollar can add further pressure on dollar-denominated assets.

    The market’s reaction will hinge partly on the accompanying guidance. While a quarter-point hike is largely priced in, any signal of additional increases could force a reassessment of the liquidity and borrowing-cost trajectory.

    Notably, Bitcoin now enters a tightening cycle with a significantly larger institutional investor base than during the Fed’s previous rate-hike cycle. Spot exchange-traded funds, corporate Bitcoin holdings, and other regulated products have tethered crypto more closely to traditional portfolio decisions.

    Trump pledges to respect Fed independence

    National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said President Donald Trump would support Warsh’s right to make an independent policy decision, even though the White House does not favor another rate increase.

    “President Trump 100% respects the independence of Kevin Warsh,” Hassett said, according to comments reported by Yahoo Finance.

    Hassett added that the administration would back Warsh regardless of the outcome. His remarks clarified Trump’s position on the Fed’s authority but did not signal White House approval of higher rates. Both Trump and Hassett have opposed raising borrowing costs. During a Fox News interview, Hassett said he would be cautious about increasing rates near the U.S. midterm elections because an independent central bank should avoid becoming part of the political cycle.

    The distinction matters for U.S. investors because the Fed sets monetary policy without White House direction. Political commentary can influence expectations, but the FOMC votes based on its assessment of inflation, employment, and financial conditions. Recent inflation readings have kept pressure on policymakers, with Wall Street firms warning that the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred gauge — could run hotter than expected, giving officials more reason to keep rates elevated after September.

    CLARITY Act procedural vote adds legislative uncertainty

    Alongside the Fed decision, the Senate is preparing a cloture vote on whether to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The procedural motion requires 60 senators to support opening debate on the measure.

    A successful cloture vote would not enact the bill. It would allow the Senate to begin considering the legislation, followed by an amendment process, another procedural vote, and potential negotiations with the House. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, making the bill dependent on support from several Democrats. Negotiations grew more uncertain after Democrats presented a counteroffer that met Republican resistance shortly before the scheduled vote.

    A recent analysis noted the revised text had expanded from roughly 616 pages to 635 pages. The proposal includes language on the division of authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, along with provisions affecting the treatment of individual digital assets.

    For American crypto holders, the bill could determine which federal regulator oversees different market segments and how tokens are classified under U.S. law. Failure to advance the measure would leave the current regulatory framework in place while lawmakers decide whether to revise or reintroduce the proposal.

    Crypto-linked stocks fell ahead of the vote as investors trimmed exposure to both legislative uncertainty and the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.

    Market entered week on defensive footing

    A weekly market recap published Sept. 12 placed Bitcoin near $80,000 and reported $463 million in weekly outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Continued withdrawals from those funds would indicate that regulated investment products remain a source of selling pressure during this policy-heavy week.

  • Solana Price Risks Falling Below $100 as Bearish Momentum Intensifies

    Solana Price Risks Falling Below $100 as Bearish Momentum Intensifies

    Solana Price Dips Below $102 as Macro Risks Trigger Broad Crypto Sell-Off

    Solana (SOL) declined 3.5% over the past 24 hours to trade near $101 on September 10, putting the critical $100 support level under threat as selling pressure intensifies across digital asset markets. According to CoinGecko data at the time of writing, SOL was priced at $100.96 after retreating from the $104–$105 range and touching an intraday low of roughly $100.60.

    Despite the near-term pullback, the token remains up 1.1% over the past seven days and has surged 34.5% over the last 30 days, climbing from the mid-$70s in August to briefly test the $110 level.

    Macroeconomic Headwinds Drive Risk-Off Sentiment

    The decline coincides with a broad risk-off move across global markets. Brent crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the U.S.–Iran conflict escalated and attacks on shipping lanes disrupted energy flows through the Middle East. Higher energy costs have reignited concerns over U.S. inflation just ahead of key consumer price data and next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

    Asian equities fell in tandem with cryptocurrencies as investors reduced exposure to risk assets. Additional pressure stemmed from the bond market, where the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.85%—its highest level since late 2023—after the Treasury announced a $6 billion long-dated bond buyback that was smaller than market participants had anticipated. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like crypto at a time when markets are reassessing the trajectory of U.S. interest rates.

    Traders are currently pricing in roughly a 60% probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike following strong labor market data. The macro-driven selloff swept across the crypto complex: Bitcoin hovered near $79,000, while roughly $246 million in leveraged positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours as volatility spiked.

    No Solana-Specific Catalyst Behind the Drop

    Coinbase market data linked SOL‘s decline to broad inflation concerns and weakness across smart contract platform tokens, supporting the view that the sell-off is not driven by a new Solana-specific event. Profit-taking likely amplified the move once SOL slipped from the $105 area.

    Solana (SOL) Technical Price Analysis

    Daily Chart: Momentum Fades, $100 Support in Focus

    On the daily timeframe, SOL/USDT was trading near $101.19 after printing an intraday low of $100.50.

    SOL/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.
    • Price has fallen below the 9-day simple moving average (SMA) at $102.88, leaving the short-term average above the market after supporting much of the August advance.
    • The daily Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has dropped to -10.02 from over 300 during the August breakout. Its moving average remains elevated at 64.77.
    • The CCI’s fall back through zero indicates the strong positive momentum behind the rally toward $110 has dissipated, though the indicator has not reached the -100 level typically associated with oversold conditions.

    $100 now acts as immediate support after SOL repeatedly held the $100–$101 zone during the recent decline. A daily close below this level could bring $95 into focus, with the $90–$92.50 area forming the next major support zone stemming from the August breakout.

    For a recovery to gain traction, SOL must first reclaim the 9-day SMA at $102.88. The next resistance cluster sits around $105–$107, where several recent upside attempts have stalled. A decisive break above that zone could put the August high near $110 back in play.

    4-Hour Chart: Bearish Structure Intensifies

    The 4-hour timeframe shows a similar deterioration in momentum.

    SOL/USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.
    • SOL has declined from the $106–$107 region since September 7 and was last trading at $101.18, with the latest candle reaching a low of $100.83.
    • On-balance volume (OBV) has fallen to -44.94 million from roughly -41 million during the prior rebound, confirming that the move toward $100 has been accompanied by declining cumulative volume pressure.
    • The 4-hour MACD line has dropped to -0.46, below the signal line at -0.33, with the histogram at -0.13. Both lines have moved below zero as SOL approaches $100, signaling short-term momentum favors sellers.

    A break below $100 would expose the recent 4-hour support around $97.50–$98. SOL traded in that area during the early-September pullback before recovering toward $106. If $97.50 fails, the next visible support sits around $95.

    For the bearish structure to weaken, SOL would need to recover to $102.50–$103 and push the MACD back toward its zero line. A move through $105 would then open the door to the $107 area, while the late-August peak near $110 remains the next major upside target.