Daily News 19

Tag: CPI data

  • Ethereum Price Momentum Builds as $1M+ Whale Transactions Surge

    Ethereum Price Momentum Builds as $1M+ Whale Transactions Surge

    Ethereum Surges Toward $2,700 as CPI Data Sparks Whale Activity and Short Liquidations

    Ethereum (ETH) is building momentum after a sharp post-CPI rally pushed the asset toward $2,667, bringing the critical $2,700–$2,800 resistance zone back into focus. The move was accompanied by a nearly 14% increase in transactions exceeding $1 million, signaling heightened whale participation as market volatility returns. With institutional flows adding another dimension to the setup, traders are closely monitoring whether ETH can sustain its breakout structure or if profit-taking will cut the recovery short.

    Whale Activity Accelerates Following CPI-Driven Repricing

    Ethereum’s latest advance coincided with a notable spike in large-holder activity. On-chain data shows transactions above $1 million rose nearly 14% as ETH surged in the wake of the U.S. Consumer Price Index release, while approximately $250 million in ETH short positions were liquidated during the surge.

    The August CPI report showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.4%, providing risk assets room to rally without a major inflation surprise. ETH climbed from roughly $2,433 to $2,667 in the move. The key signal now is whether elevated whale activity persists after the CPI-driven volatility fades. Continued large-wallet participation would lend credibility to the breakout; a quick reversal would suggest the move was driven more by short covering than fresh demand.

    ETH Price Analysis: Bulls Target $2,700–$2,800 Supply Zone

    Technical charts show Ethereum recovering from a prolonged consolidation before accelerating higher. The breakout carried ETH through the upper portion of its recent range and briefly to $2,667. The next major supply area sits around $2,700–$2,800. A decisive move through that region would strengthen the breakout structure and bring the $3,000 psychological level back into play.

    The $2,500 area now serves as the key near-term reference on any pullback. Holding above it would preserve the recent recovery structure, while a deeper decline back into the previous range would weaken the breakout thesis. Momentum has improved substantially, but ETH has also moved quickly. A period of consolidation after the CPI-driven surge would be constructive if buyers continue defending the breakout rather than allowing the entire move to unwind.

    Outlook: Breakout Quality Hinges on Sustained Demand

    Ethereum’s latest move has been driven by a clear market catalyst rather than a random price spike. CPI data triggered the initial repricing, short liquidations accelerated the advance, and rising large-value transactions confirmed that whale activity increased alongside the move. Institutional flows remain another variable to watch as ETH approaches heavier resistance.

    The next phase will determine the quality of the breakout. Holding the higher range would keep the recovery intact; sustained selling would signal that Friday’s surge was largely a positioning event rather than the start of a lasting trend.

  • Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

    Bitcoin’s Daily Golden Cross Fails as Hawkish Fed Expectations Trigger Pullback

    Bitcoin’s brief daily golden cross collapsed Friday evening as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) slipped back below the 200-day EMA, reversing a bullish signal that had confirmed earlier in the session. The cryptocurrency retreated to $77,438 after reaching an intraday high near $79,837, tracking a sharp repricing in interest-rate markets following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

    Rate-Hike Odds Surge After CPI Release

    The pullback coincides with a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed core monthly inflation at 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast. In response, CME FedWatch Tool data indicates the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting spiked from roughly 69% immediately after the data release to 86.5% within hours.

    A rate increase would typically trigger a risk-off move, pressuring assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks. Despite the intraday reversal, Bitcoin remains up 1.19% on the day.

    Daily Candle Structure: Volatile Round Trip

    Friday’s daily candle opened at $76,529, surged to $79,837, dropped to a low of $76,040, and settled near $77,438. That volatility was sufficient to flip the daily EMA crossover back to bearish after the 50-day average had briefly pierced above the 200-day average—a pattern traders call a golden cross, widely regarded as a strong bullish signal. Bitcoin had not printed a daily golden cross since November 2024.

    Why the Golden Cross Flickered

    A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average (the 50-day, based on the last 50 daily closes) crosses above a longer-term one (the 200-day). It is among the most watched trend signals across markets, historically preceding significant Bitcoin rallies. However, it is a lagging indicator constructed entirely from past prices. When the two averages trade in close proximity—as they do now—intraday swings can toggle the signal on and off within a single session.

    Today’s push to $79,837 lifted the 50-day EMA above the 200-day, and the subsequent retreat to $77,438 pulled it back under. For daily chart watchers, the episode underscores how fragile such crossovers can be when the averages sit near each other. The daily candle remains open, so the reading could flip again before the close.

    Underlying Trend Strength Remains Intact

    Despite the moving-average whipsaw, broader trend metrics support a constructive outlook. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength irrespective of direction, reads 45 on the daily chart—well above the 25 threshold that separates a genuine trend from noise. Positive directional movement continues to outpace negative.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator scaled 0–100, sits at 55.5 on the daily timeframe, holding on the bullish side of neutral (above 50). Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions; below 30 indicates oversold.

    4-Hour Chart: Bullish Structure Persists, Momentum Cools

    Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour timeframe never lost its golden cross. The 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, preserving a bullish structure that formed in late August. However, short-term momentum has deteriorated:

    • RSI: Dropped to 43.3, entering bearish territory.
    • Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Fired after days of compression, with volatility expanding 3.95%—a pattern that often precedes a sharp directional move, currently to the downside.
    • ADX: Stands at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, signaling a much weaker intraday trend compared to the daily reading of 45.

    The bigger picture still leans bullish. The 4-hour golden cross has held since late August, and the daily ADX at 45 confirms a robust trend is in place even as the moving-average label flips back and forth on a single volatile session.

    Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

  • Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

    Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

    U.S. Inflation Data Delivers Mixed Signals as Core CPI Runs Hot

    The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gave markets a mixed bag on Friday. Headline inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, both matching consensus estimates and matching July’s annual pace. However, core CPI—which excludes food and energy—told a more nuanced story. The annual core rate cooled to 2.4% from 2.5%, its lowest level since 2021, but the monthly core reading came in at 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% analysts had forecast. That hotter-than-expected monthly core figure is the detail markets zeroed in on as the Federal Reserve approaches its September 15-16 policy meeting.

    Fed Rate Hike Probabilities Tick Up

    The report lands five days before the Fed’s next decision, the last major data point Chair Kevin Warsh’s committee will see before voting. Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the Fed still has “work to do” on inflation. Three regional Fed presidents already dissented in favor of a hike at the July meeting, so a move would not be entirely unexpected. CME FedWatch, which tracks probabilities implied by 30-day Fed funds futures, puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at roughly 69%. Prediction markets are slightly more cautious: Polymarket prices the same outcome at 62%, and Myriad—the platform run by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—has it at 61%.

    Crypto Market Rallies Despite Initial Dip

    Bitcoin initially dipped on the news but quickly reversed, climbing back toward $79,000 as the broader market digested the implications for interest rates. Ethereum led major assets higher, surging 7.48% on the day to reclaim $2,611, while Solana rose 4.53% back above $100. Zcash stood out across the top 10, gaining 23.09% over the past week alongside a 4.71% daily gain. Total crypto market capitalization climbed back near $2.7 trillion.

    Sentiment swung hard with the price action. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had slipped to 56 after Thursday’s hot producer-price report, jumped back to 73—firmly in “greed” territory—while the Altcoin Season Index sits at 38, indicating Bitcoin still dominates the ecosystem as traders lack enough risk appetite for a full altcoin rotation. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to show a net outflow of roughly $330.5 million on the day, a reminder that this rally hasn’t yet pulled fresh institutional money off the sidelines.

    Derivatives activity climbed alongside the rally. Open interest across crypto futures rose 1.52% to $429.99 billion, with 24-hour trading volume up 2.27% to $877.11 billion. The volatile session triggered $897.09 million in liquidations, split between $493.85 million in long positions and $403.24 million in shorts.

    Bitcoin Price Analysis: Golden Cross Forms on Daily Chart

    Bitcoin opened Friday at $76,529 and briefly dipped toward the day’s $76,040 low in the minutes after the CPI print—an initial hawkish reaction before the market reversed hard. Bulls have since taken over, pushing BTC as high as $79,837 through the session. The asset now trades near $79,007, a 3.24% gain on the day and nearing the psychologically significant $80K mark.

    Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview

    Golden Cross Signals Medium-Term Trend Shift

    The chart’s biggest structural shift is the exponential moving average (EMA) crossover. Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA has now crossed above its 200-day EMA, forming a golden cross—a setup traders read as confirmation that the medium-term trend has flipped bullish rather than a warning of a coming reversal, which the opposite death cross would signal. The crossover just happened, meaning it is not technically confirmed yet; there isn’t yet a significant gap between both averages, so traders would be wise to keep their champagne in the refrigerator for a couple of days.

    Momentum Indicators Support Upside

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 59.7—bullish territory and well below the 70 reading that would flag the move as overbought. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength regardless of direction, reads in the 40s, comfortably above the 25 threshold that separates a real trend from noise, with the DI+ line above DI- confirming buyers remain in control.

    Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Fed Decision

    The key zone to watch sits below current prices: a Fibonacci retracement drawn off the summer’s $68,858 low to the $82,281 high hit in late August places Bitcoin’s golden zone—the retracement band bulls need to defend—between $73,986 and $75,569. Above that, the $82,281 high from late August remains the level that needs to break for the rally to extend before the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET.

    Myriad: $BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K? Click to make your prediction.

    Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

  • Bitcoin ETFs Still $1 Billion Short of Breaking Even in 2026

    Bitcoin ETFs Still $1 Billion Short of Breaking Even in 2026

    Investor appetite for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged in recent weeks, yet cumulative flows for 2024 remain deeply negative.

    Strong Summer Inflows Fail to Offset Spring Selloff

    Data from SoSoValue shows a dramatic turnaround in August, which attracted a massive $3.52 billion in fresh capital. Momentum carried into September, adding another $770.15 million through the early part of the month. While the winning streak signals that the worst of the mid-year market doldrums may be over, the broader arithmetic reveals a persistent deficit.

    Despite the recent rally, the funds are still down roughly $1 billion on a year-to-date basis. The primary driver of this lingering shortfall is the brutal two-month stretch in May and June, when institutional capital exited the funds at an alarming pace. June alone wiped out a staggering $4.51 billion, completely erasing the gains accumulated during March and April. Consequently, bulls still have significant ground to cover before ETF flows break even for the year.

    Macro Catalysts Loom as Critical Test

    Market participants are now focused on whether the positive momentum can withstand upcoming macroeconomic events. “The key test now is whether those inflows survive this week’s CPI and Treasury buyback,” analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said in a note to CoinDesk.