Daily News 19

Tag: Bitcoin technical analysis

  • Is a New Bitcoin Rally Imminent? Binance Research Analyzes Historic Signal That Appeared After 293 Days

    Is a New Bitcoin Rally Imminent? Binance Research Analyzes Historic Signal That Appeared After 293 Days

    Key Highlights

    • Bitcoin formed a “golden cross” on September 8, when its 50-day moving average moved above its 200-day moving average.
    • Historical cases following at least 150 days below the 200-day average recorded peak gains of approximately 100% to 600% during the subsequent year.
    • Binance Research cautions that historical patterns are not guarantees, while elevated US Treasury yields and macroeconomic data remain important risks.

    Bitcoin’s September Golden Cross Echoes Earlier Recovery Periods

    Bitcoin’s latest “golden cross” has drawn attention from Binance Research because the technical formation resembles patterns seen during several previous recovery periods. Bitcoin, the highest-volume asset in the cryptocurrency market, recorded the signal on September 8, when its 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average.

    The crossover followed an extended period of weakness. Before the golden cross emerged, Bitcoin had spent 293 days below its 200-day moving average. Binance Research examined 12 previous examples of similar crossovers to assess how Bitcoin performed after prolonged periods beneath the longer-term trend indicator.

    According to the report, golden crosses that formed after Bitcoin remained below its 200-day moving average for at least 150 days were followed by peak gains ranging from approximately 100% to 600% during the next year. Binance Research stressed, however, that these figures represent the maximum gains reached during the period rather than the return generated by holding Bitcoin for exactly one year.

    The historical results were less pronounced when Bitcoin had spent a comparatively shorter period below its 200-day average. Binance Research noted that in four of the other six cases, Bitcoin’s maximum gain within one year remained below 100%. The comparison suggests that the length of the preceding period of weakness may be relevant when assessing the historical performance of a golden cross.

    Bitcoin Pattern Shows Similarities to October 2015

    Binance Research identified the current setup as particularly similar to the golden cross recorded in October 2015. Following that formation, Bitcoin surged by 150%. During the 2015 period, Bitcoin produced the technical signal after a prolonged correction, recovered from an extended period of weakness and subsequently entered its next major bull cycle.

    Despite the comparison, Binance Research emphasized that historical similarities do not guarantee future price movements. The report also highlighted the limited size of the sample and the possibility that some of the analyzed periods overlap. For those reasons, historical performance alone should not be treated as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin.

    Macroeconomic Conditions Remain Critical for Bitcoin

    Bitcoin’s improved technical picture is developing alongside continued macroeconomic pressure. Binance Research reported that the US 10-year Treasury yield had risen to 5.17%, its highest level since 2007. Higher yields and changing interest-rate expectations can weigh on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

    The report said market participants will closely monitor both technical signals and economic data in the coming period. Inflation and employment figures will be particularly important in assessing whether Bitcoin can sustain its upward trend. The analysis does not constitute investment advice.

    Why This Matters

    The golden cross gives traders a widely followed technical signal indicating that Bitcoin’s medium-term price momentum has strengthened relative to its longer-term trend. However, the historical examples cited by Binance Research also show that the outcome has varied, and the sample does not establish a reliable forecast.

    The broader market backdrop may determine whether the signal develops into a sustained recovery. Elevated Treasury yields, interest-rate expectations, inflation and employment data could all influence demand for Bitcoin in the period ahead. Investors will therefore be watching whether the technical improvement persists while macroeconomic pressures remain in place.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is Bitcoin’s golden cross?

    A golden cross occurs when an asset’s 50-day moving average rises above its 200-day moving average. Bitcoin formed this pattern on September 8.

    What did Binance Research find about previous golden crosses?

    In cases where Bitcoin had remained below its 200-day moving average for at least 150 days, peak gains during the following year ranged from approximately 100% to 600%. These were maximum gains during the period, not one-year holding returns.

    What could affect Bitcoin’s performance after the signal?

    Binance Research said inflation data, employment figures, interest-rate expectations and the US 10-year Treasury yield will be important factors alongside Bitcoin’s technical signals.

  • Fidelity Executive Issues Ultra-Bullish Bitcoin Price Forecast

    Fidelity Executive Issues Ultra-Bullish Bitcoin Price Forecast

    Key Highlights

    • Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer identifies $80,000 as a critical support level for Bitcoin, suggesting a sustained breakout could confirm a double bottom pattern targeting $100,000.
    • Timmer’s long-term “power law” model projects Bitcoin could reach approximately $300,000 by 2029 if the $60,000 level holds.
    • The Global Macro Director maintains that Bitcoin and the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index remain effective portfolio diversification tools for investors.

    Fidelity’s Timmer Flags $80,000 as Pivotal Bitcoin Support Level

    Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, has signaled that Bitcoin is testing a decisive technical threshold that could dictate the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory. According to Timmer’s analysis, the $80,000 price level represents a critical support zone that, if defended, may validate a bullish double bottom chart formation. A confirmed breakout from this structure would technically target a move toward the $100,000 mark, offering a clear, measurable objective for market participants monitoring price action.

    Power Law Model Points to $300,000 Long-Term Target

    Beyond the immediate technical setup, Timmer referenced Bitcoin’s adherence to a mathematical “power law” price pattern over longer time horizons. This quantitative framework suggests that the asset’s logarithmic growth trajectory remains intact. The analyst noted that as long as Bitcoin sustains above the $60,000 level, the power law model projects a potential price target of approximately $300,000 by 2029. This long-range forecast underscores Timmer’s view that the current consolidation phase may represent a cycle accumulation period rather than a structural breakdown.

    Diversification Role Reinforced Amid Market Volatility

    Addressing portfolio construction, Timmer reiterated that Bitcoin continues to serve as a robust diversification instrument alongside traditional commodity exposure. He specifically highlighted the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index as a complementary asset class, noting that both have demonstrated low correlation to equities and fixed income during periods of market stress. This perspective aligns with Fidelity’s broader institutional research advocating for alternative assets to enhance risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.

    Why This Matters

    Timmer’s commentary carries weight given Fidelity’s position as a major institutional asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under administration. His technical and quantitative assessment provides a framework that bridges short-term chart analysis with long-term adoption curves. The $80,000 level has acted as both resistance and support throughout 2024 and early 2025, making it a widely watched pivot point. Confirmation of a double bottom would signal exhaustion of selling pressure, while the power law projection offers a valuation anchor rooted in network growth metrics rather than speculation. For institutional allocators, the emphasis on Bitcoin’s diversification properties alongside commodities reinforces the narrative of digital assets as a maturing asset class rather than a speculative vehicle.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the significance of the $80,000 level for Bitcoin according to Jurrien Timmer?

    Timmer identifies $80,000 as a critical support level. A sustained upward breakout from this level could confirm a double bottom technical formation, which projects a price target of approximately $100,000.

    What is the “power law” model and what does it project for Bitcoin?

    The power law is a mathematical price pattern Timmer observes in Bitcoin’s long-term history. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000, this model suggests the start of a new cyclical bull market with a price target of roughly $300,000 by 2029.

    Does Fidelity view Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier?

    Yes. Timmer stated that Bitcoin and the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index continue to be strong diversification tools for investors, implying low correlation with traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds.

  • ‘Only hedge funds, retail sold’ — Will BTC Sustain Rally as Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive?

    ‘Only hedge funds, retail sold’ — Will BTC Sustain Rally as Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive?

    Key Highlights

    • U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion in net inflows across five consecutive trading days, flipping year-to-date flows positive with $349 million, led by BlackRock commanding half of all demand.
    • Bitcoin surged to an eight-month high of $87,000 before retreating below $84,000 as 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.1% and CME FedWatch data priced a 64% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
    • Galaxy Research data reveals cumulative ETF flows have recovered half of the $12 billion deficit since October 2023, though Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart identifies hedge funds and retail traders as the primary sellers over the past year.

    Five-Day Inflow Surge Turns YTD Flows Positive

    U.S. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds extended a winning streak to five consecutive sessions, amassing $2.65 billion in net inflows and marking a decisive shift in market sentiment. According to Galaxy Research data, the complex attracted $1 billion on Monday alone, followed by $714 million on Tuesday and $346 million on Wednesday. The sustained demand lifted year-to-date flows into positive territory for the first time, registering a net $349 million inflow since January. The bullish wave propelled Bitcoin to an eight-month peak of $87,000, signaling renewed institutional conviction after months of sideways price action.

    BlackRock Leads Institutional Demand Amid Cumulative Flow Recovery

    BlackRock’s IBIT fund drove approximately half of the five-day inflow total, underscoring the asset manager’s dominant position in the Bitcoin ETF landscape. The recent surge has significantly repaired cumulative flow metrics that had deteriorated sharply since October 2023. Galaxy Research figures show cumulative flows had contracted by $12 billion, equivalent to 77,800 BTC, during the preceding drawdown. The current rebound has erased roughly half that deficit, with cumulative flows now down only 5.7% from inception highs, standing at approximately $55 billion in total assets despite the crypto winter.

    Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that the recent traction could soon help the cumulative flows (aggregate demand since inception) turn positive too. Seyffart added that the outflows were mainly driven by hedge funds and retail. “By far, the biggest sellers of the ETFs over the last ~year were hedge funds and retail traders/investors.” This distinction highlights a structural shift: while speculative participants exited positions during the downturn, institutional allocators have maintained or expanded exposure, providing a more resilient demand base.

    Macro Headwinds: Bond Yields and Fed Rate Hike Fears

    Despite the ETF momentum, Bitcoin’s advance stalled mid-week as macroeconomic pressures intensified. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.1%, while oil prices ticked higher, reigniting inflation concerns across risk markets. Interest rate traders, per CME FedWatch data, priced a 64% probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting. This repricing dampened risk appetite and dragged Bitcoin from its $87,000 high to below $84,000, a decline of approximately 4% in short order.

    Historical precedent offers a nuanced perspective. In the past, U.S. Treasury intervention plans to control bond yields have been viewed as net inflationary and an overall boost to scarce assets such as BTC and gold. Whether that narrative will hold and drive BTC higher remains to be seen. For the rate hike fears, however, the asset typically remains muted before the Fed decision and tends to push higher afterwards. Market participants are closely monitoring whether the current ETF demand can withstand sustained bond market volatility.

    Technical Analysis: $82K Weekly Close as Key Confirmation Level

    From a technical standpoint, analyst Benjamin Cowen projected that the uptrend could only be confirmed if there is a weekly candlestick close above $82K (May peak). This level, corresponding to Bitcoin’s previous local high from May, serves as a critical structural reference point. A weekly close above this threshold would validate the breakout structure and suggest the recent ETF-driven rally has legs beyond short-term momentum. Conversely, failure to reclaim and hold $82,000 on a weekly basis could expose the asset to further consolidation or retest of lower support levels.

    Why This Matters

    The five-day inflow streak represents the most sustained institutional accumulation since the ETFs’ January launch, suggesting that the “crypto winter” narrative has fundamentally shifted for professional allocators. BlackRock’s outsized participation signals deepening integration of Bitcoin into traditional portfolio construction. However, the immediate price reversal underscores that Bitcoin remains acutely sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations and Treasury market dynamics. The interplay between ETF flow momentum—now structurally positive on a cumulative basis—and macro liquidity conditions will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory through the fourth quarter. Investors should watch the October Fed meeting, weekly close above $82,000, and whether cumulative flows breach inception highs as key catalysts.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    How much have U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated in the recent five-day streak?

    The ETF complex recorded $2.65 billion in net inflows across five consecutive trading days, with $1 billion on Monday, $714 million on Tuesday, and $346 million on Wednesday, per Galaxy Research data.

    Who were the primary sellers during the previous outflow period?

    According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, hedge funds and retail traders/investors were by far the biggest sellers of the ETFs over the last year, driving the $12 billion cumulative flow deficit since October 2023.

    What technical level must Bitcoin reclaim to confirm the uptrend?

    Analyst Benjamin Cowen projects that a weekly candlestick close above $82,000—the May peak—is required to confirm the uptrend structure following the recent ETF-driven rally.

  • Bitcoin Holds $75,900 as Market Cap Falls 4.70%, Charts Split

    Bitcoin Holds $75,900 as Market Cap Falls 4.70%, Charts Split

    Bitcoin Price Analysis: $75,926 Caught Between Daily Uptrend and Hourly Bearish Structure

    As of September 16, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $75,926.01, trapped in a technical standoff. The daily chart maintains a constructive long-term structure, while the hourly timeframe has already flipped bearish. The broader cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with total market capitalization declining 4.70% over the past 24 hours.

    Key Market Snapshot

    • Bitcoin Price: $75,926.01 (September 16, 2026)
    • 24-Hour Market Cap Change: -4.70%
    • BTC Dominance: 58.49%
    • Fear & Greed Index: 51 (Neutral)
    • Daily ATR14: $2,163.62 (elevated volatility)

    Daily Timeframe: Uptrend Intact but Momentum Fading

    Bitcoin’s daily trend remains structurally sound. Price sits above the EMA50 ($73,581.64) and EMA200 ($72,042.87), confirming the medium- and long-term uptrend persists. However, price has slipped below the EMA20 ($76,891.81), signaling cracked short-term momentum despite the bigger trend holding.

    Momentum Indicators Show Deceleration, Not Reversal

    • Daily RSI14: 49.26 — dead center, no conviction either way
    • MACD Line: 1,003.27 (above prior positive territory)
    • MACD Signal: 1,800.67 (line crossed below signal)
    • MACD Histogram: -797.41 (negative, momentum decelerating)

    The MACD configuration depicts a market losing steam rather than collapsing — momentum decelerating inside an uptrend, not reversing outright.

    Bollinger Bands and Key Pivot Levels

    Level Price
    Bollinger Upper Band $80,893.42
    Bollinger Mid-Band $78,088.60
    Daily Pivot $75,831.51
    Current Price $75,926.01
    Support S1 $75,552.02
    Bollinger Lower Band $75,283.78
    Resistance R1 $76,205.50

    Price has drifted into the lower third of the daily Bollinger Band range without breaching it. The daily ATR14 of $2,163.62 confirms elevated volatility — swings of this magnitude are the norm, not noise. Bitcoin is holding just above the daily pivot with resistance at R1 and support at S1, creating a tight, undecided zone.

    Hourly Chart: Confirmed Bearish Structure

    The hourly timeframe has flipped decisively bearish. Price trades below all three key exponential moving averages, stacked in textbook downtrend formation:

    • H1 EMA20: $76,162.11
    • H1 EMA50: $76,748.53
    • H1 EMA200: $77,750.43

    Hourly RSI14 at 42.46 leans bearish without reaching oversold territory, leaving room for further downside before any stretched-condition bounce becomes likely.

    Hourly MACD Shows Faint Bullish Divergence Attempt

    • MACD Line: -362.40
    • MACD Signal: -436.20
    • MACD Histogram: +73.80 (positive tick)

    The histogram has ticked positive — a small bullish crossover attempt unfolding inside an otherwise bearish setup. This signal typically appears when short-term buyers attempt to stall a decline rather than reverse it. The hourly pivot sits at $75,947.85 with resistance at R1 ($76,075.70) and support at S1 ($75,798.16), a narrow band effectively boxing price in.

    15-Minute Chart: Execution Context Only

    The 15-minute timeframe offers execution context rather than directional bias. It remains neutral and compressed, more useful for timing entries than reading the broader trend.

    • 15m RSI14: 51.43 (mildly constructive)
    • 15m MACD Histogram: +6.58 (hinting at short-lived intraday bounce)
    • EMA20: $75,900.04 | EMA50: $75,978.42 | EMA200: $76,765.24
    • 15m Pivot: $75,910 | R1: $75,944.01 | S1: $75,892

    The extremely tight range reflects the broader stalemate rather than resolving it.

    What Would Flip the Bias

    Bullish Reclamation Scenario

    Reclaiming the daily EMA20 ($76,891.81) would flip the bias back to bullish. Buyers must first push through daily R1 ($76,205.50) to open a path toward the Bollinger mid-band at $78,088.60. For this to begin, the hourly chart must invalidate its bearish regime — a close back above the H1 EMA20 ($76,162.11) and H1 EMA50 ($76,748.53) would be the first real sign the pullback is over.

    Bearish Extension Scenario

    A daily close below S1 ($75,552.02) and through the lower Bollinger Band ($75,283.78) would confirm the pullback is turning structural. Next reference points: daily EMA50 at $73,581.64 and EMA200 at $72,042.87. The hourly regime already supports this scenario with price stacked below all three EMAs. Losing the 15-minute pivot support at $75,892 with volume would confirm intraday buyers have abandoned the zone.

    Positioning and Risk Assessment

    Bitcoin currently reflects a market that has not made up its mind. The daily trend structure holds, but momentum indicators and the entire hourly timeframe lean against the bulls. Layer on a broader market that shed 4.70% of total capitalization in a single day, plus political catalysts — the Clarity Act and midterm outcome risk flagged by CNBC — and this is not a one-directional environment.

    With daily ATR above $2,100, volatility is real. A Neutral Fear & Greed reading of 51 suggests no crowd extreme to fade in either direction yet. The sensible approach: let pivot levels and EMA reclaim or loss points dictate bias rather than assuming either scenario is the default outcome.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the Bitcoin price today?

    As of September 16, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $75,926.01. The total crypto market capitalization is down 4.70% over the past 24 hours, with BTC dominance at 58.49%.

    Is Bitcoin in an uptrend or a downtrend right now?

    It depends on the timeframe. The daily chart shows an intact uptrend with price above the EMA50 and EMA200, while the hourly chart has already turned bearish with price below all three key EMAs. This divergence is the central tension in the market right now.

    What are the key levels to watch?

    On the upside, reclaiming the daily EMA20 at $76,891.81 and the daily R1 at $76,205.50 would be a bullish signal. On the downside, a close below S1 at $75,552.02 and the lower Bollinger Band at $75,283.78 would suggest a deeper correction toward the EMA50 at $73,581.64.

    What does the Fear & Greed Index say about current sentiment?

    The index reads 51, squarely in Neutral territory. This indicates the market has not capitulated despite the 24-hour drawdown, and there is no extreme sentiment to fade in either direction.

    Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptocurrency. The analysis provided is not indicative of future results. Investing in crypto assets and financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision.

    Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

  • Morgan Stanley’s $50.6M Bitcoin Purchase Bolsters Market, But Rally to $82K Faces Key Hurdle

    Morgan Stanley’s $50.6M Bitcoin Purchase Bolsters Market, But Rally to $82K Faces Key Hurdle

    Morgan Stanley Expands Bitcoin ETF Holdings as Institutional Demand Strengthens

    Institutional appetite for Bitcoin accelerated this week as Morgan Stanley continued building its position in the MSBT Bitcoin ETF, while broader spot ETF flows remained positive and exchange netflows signaled tightening supply.

    Morgan Stanley Adds 51.58 BTC to MSBT Fund

    Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Bitcoin ETF received an additional 51.58 BTC, valued at approximately $4 million, transferred from Coinbase Prime. The transaction extends a two-week accumulation streak that has brought the fund’s total inflows to 641.87 BTC, worth roughly $50.6 million.

    Notably, the accumulation occurred through multiple smaller transfers rather than a single large transaction, a pattern that coincided with Bitcoin consolidating below the $82,000 resistance level. This steady buying pressure reinforces the institutional demand narrative as price action stabilizes.

    Broader Spot ETF Flows Remain Positive

    Beyond Morgan Stanley, the wider Bitcoin spot ETF market recorded $6 million in daily net inflows during the latest reporting period, equivalent to approximately 78.39 BTC. Cumulative net inflows across all spot ETFs have now reached nearly $55.63 billion, representing roughly 695,820 BTC.

    While the daily figure remains modest relative to the cumulative total, the consistent positive flows complement MSBT’s accumulation and strengthen the broader demand outlook. Sustained ETF inflows could provide additional buying support if Bitcoin continues defending its current demand zone.

    Source: CoinGlass

    Persistent Exchange Outflows Restrict Supply

    Exchange activity added another supportive element, with Bitcoin spot netflows remaining predominantly negative across the observed period. The most recent reading on September 12 showed a netflow of -$6.66 million, continuing a pattern of frequent spot outflows.

    Negative netflows indicate that withdrawals exceeded deposits during these sessions, suggesting more BTC is leaving exchanges than entering them. This trend limits immediate supply pressure even as institutional players continue accumulating.

    Source: CoinGlass

    Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Defends Key Order Block

    At press time, Bitcoin traded near $77,257 after retreating from the $82,000 resistance area and returning toward its daily order block. On 24-hour charts, price continues holding above the $76,500 support level, keeping the demand structure intact despite the recent pullback.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers additional context, having cooled rapidly from earlier overbought conditions. The latest reading stands at 55.02, while the RSI average signal remains higher at 63.71. Despite softened buying momentum, the indicator stays above the neutral 50 level as Bitcoin defends the order block.

    Source: TradingView

    Outlook: $76,500 Support Determines Next Move

    A decisive defense of the $76,500 support could encourage another recovery attempt toward $82,000, particularly if institutional demand persists. Conversely, a loss of that support would weaken the technical structure and increase the probability of a deeper price correction.

    Key Takeaways

    • Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ETF accumulated 641.87 BTC ($50.6M) over two weeks via multiple Coinbase Prime transfers.
    • Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $6M daily net inflows (78.39 BTC), with cumulative inflows reaching $55.63B (695,820 BTC).
    • Exchange netflows stayed negative (-$6.66M on Sept 12), signaling net withdrawals and constrained supply.
    • Bitcoin holds $76,500 support with RSI at 55.02; defense of this level keeps $82,000 recovery in play.
  • Crypto Falls Amid $386M Liquidation Wave, Rate-Hike Fears

    Crypto Falls Amid $386M Liquidation Wave, Rate-Hike Fears

    Bitcoin Volatility Spikes as Price Drops 2.5% in 14 Hours

    Bitcoin ($BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market saw heightened volatility on September 9. The flagship asset rallied to an intraday high of $79,760 before reversing sharply, shedding 2.49% over roughly 14 hours to trade near $77,770.

    Liquidations Surge as Long Positions Unwind

    The pullback forced $BTC to retest a local support zone around $77,900. That move triggered the largest single-day liquidation total in nearly a week, with $269.96 million in long positions and $116.62 million in shorts forcibly closed, according to market data.

    Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Show Demand Slowdown

    Institutional appetite appeared to cool. Over the prior two trading sessions, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $166.8 million, based on figures from Farside Investors.

    Long-Term Holders Take Profits

    On-chain analysis indicates that long-term holders have been realizing gains. Selling pressure from this cohort likely contributed to the short-term correction. However, the $76,000 demand zone held firm, preserving the bullish case for a recovery bounce.

    Key Supply Zone Remains Contested

    Between $76,000 and $82,000 lies a critical battleground. Approximately 35% of the total Bitcoin supply was accumulated at or above this range, making it a pivotal area for both bulls and bears in the longer-term outlook.

    Macro Headwinds Intensify

    The cryptocurrency retreat coincided with a broader risk-off shift. Rising oil prices reignited concerns over accelerating inflation, pushing the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike to 60.2%.

    Technical Outlook: Bullish Structure Intact but Tested

    4-Hour Chart Holds Key Demand

    On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin maintains a bullish market structure. Last week’s surge to $82,300 confirmed trend continuation. Despite the deep retracement, price remains above the $77,000 demand zone (marked in cyan on TradingView charts).

    A decisive break below $76,264 would be required to invalidate the bullish 4-hour structure and flip the bias bearish.

    Liquidation Heatmap Highlights Magnetic Levels

    CoinGlass’s 1-week liquidation heatmap identifies the nearest high-density liquidity cluster at $77,400. Volatility could pull price toward this level before a potential move higher.

    To the upside, notable magnetic zones sit at $79,700, $80,500, and $82,000 — levels traders should monitor for resistance or breakout confirmation.

    Summary

    • Negative spot ETF flows and long-term holder profit-taking drove the 24-hour retracement.
    • Over $200 million in long liquidations amplified the downside move.
    • Macro pressure persists: higher oil prices fuel inflation fears, with Fed rate-hike odds at 60.2%.
    • Short-term bias remains bullish provided the $76,000–$77,000 zone holds.
  • Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Down Today?

    Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Down Today?

    Bitcoin (BTC) fell about 0.7% over the 24 hours to around $77,800 on Aug. 31, extending its retreat after another failed attempt to hold above the $80,000 level.

    The decline followed a shift in global market expectations after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Warsh said inflation remained too high and indicated that further tightening could be necessary to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.

    The implied probability of a September rate increase climbed to approximately 57% on Monday, while the two-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in more than a month. Barclays also revised its forecast after the speech and now expects two 25-basis-point rate increases, in September and December. The bank had previously expected interest rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026.

    Bitcoin pressured by higher yields and geopolitical tensions

    Higher yields weighed on other risk assets. Asian equities fell on Monday, while US and European stock futures traded lower as markets adjusted to the prospect of tighter monetary policy.

    Renewed conflict between the US and Iran added to selling pressure over the weekend. US forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, followed by retaliatory Iranian attacks against US forces in Jordan.

    Brent crude subsequently rose about 3.3% to $91.01 per barrel. The increase in oil prices added to inflation concerns as markets were already pricing in a higher probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase.

    Bitcoin entered the latest period of macroeconomic pressure after its strong August recovery stalled around $80,000. BTC gained roughly 23% over the past month and briefly traded above $81,000 last week, but repeated attempts to establish support in the $80,000-$82,000 region failed.

    Selling accelerated early on Aug. 31 after Bitcoin reached about $79,300 late on Saturday before falling below $78,000. The cryptocurrency briefly dropped toward $77,300, then surged toward $78,600 before giving up those gains.

    Leveraged positions contributed to the speed of the decline. Bitcoin futures open interest stood near $54.8 billion on Aug. 30, while roughly $390 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the previous 24 hours. Long positions accounted for about 70% of the losses.

    Institutional demand also weakened before the weekend. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $201.8 million in net outflows on Aug. 28 after receiving $314.4 million on Aug. 25, $232.1 million on Aug. 26 and $242.2 million on Aug. 27, according to SoSoValue data.

    Despite Friday’s reversal, the funds remained at approximately $3.3 billion in net inflows for August.

    Bitcoin price analysis

    Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the price holding well above all four major exponential moving averages despite its retreat from $80,000.

    On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin was trading near $77,800, below its 20-period EMA at $78,207, 50-period EMA at $78,288 and 100-period EMA at $77,399. The price remained above the 200-period EMA at $74,572.

    Bitcoin technical analysis

    The setup indicates that short-term momentum has weakened, with Bitcoin trading below its 20- and 50-period moving averages. However, the price remains above the 100- and 200-period EMAs, leaving the broader recovery structure intact for now.

    A sustained break below the $77,400 area could expose Bitcoin to further downside toward the 200-period EMA near $74,600. On the upside, a move back above the $78,200-$78,300 zone would bring the recent highs near $79,000-$80,000 into focus.

    The Stochastic RSI has also retreated from overbought territory. The faster line stands at 43.71, below the slower line at 46.56, indicating that near-term buying momentum has eased.

    A renewed move above $78,300 could signal improving momentum, while a deeper decline in the Stochastic RSI would reinforce the risk of further consolidation or a pullback. The bearish crossover shows that upside momentum has weakened while Bitcoin remains below $80,000.

    The Directional Movement Index (DMI) is not currently indicating a clear bearish trend. The positive directional indicator stands at 19.02, above the negative directional indicator at 15.40, while ADX is at 24.44.

    These readings suggest that buyers retain a slight directional advantage, although the relatively narrow gap between the two directional indicators points to limited conviction.

    Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the $78,200-$78,300 area keeps that zone as immediate resistance. A sustained move above it could open the way toward $79,000 and the $80,000 psychological level.

    On the downside, the 100-period EMA around $77,400 is an important near-term support level. A break below it could expose the $76,000-$77,000 region, with the 200-period EMA near $74,600 providing deeper support.

    The Williams %R reading is around -66.11, indicating that Bitcoin has moved back toward the lower portion of its recent trading range but is not yet in oversold territory. The indicator would need to fall below -80 to signal more pronounced oversold conditions.

    A recovery in Williams %R alongside a move back above the $78,200-$78,300 EMA cluster would indicate improving short-term momentum. Conversely, a move below -80 combined with a break under the $77,400 support could increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $76,000 and potentially the 200-period EMA.

  • Bitcoin Price Correction: Why BTC Stalled at $78,000 Again

    Bitcoin Price Correction: Why BTC Stalled at $78,000 Again

    Bitcoin rose 26% in less than two weeks to reach $81,455 before stopping at the same price level that ended its previous rally. As of Sunday, 30 August at 11:37 UTC, BTC/USD traded at $78,019 on Bitstamp, down 0.12% on the day.

    Why Did Bitcoin Correct After Reaching $81,000?

    The catalyst was macroeconomic rather than crypto-specific.

    On Friday, 28 August, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote. He highlighted PCE inflation running at 3.7% year over year and 4.1% annualised over the previous six months, signalling that the Fed still has more work to do.

    Markets repriced rapidly. September rate-hike odds on CME FedWatch rose to roughly 56% from 35% a day earlier, reaching 60% intraday. Gold fell 2.4%, US equities surrendered their early gains, and Bitcoin dropped from $81,455 to a low of $76,845 before closing near $77,800.

    Forced liquidations intensified the decline. CoinGlass recorded approximately $486 million in liquidations across about 95,731 traders, including $368 million in long positions. Altcoins performed worse, with Ethereum closing at $2,443, down 2.70%; Solana at $104.13, down 4.65%; and XRP at $1.3833, down 4.80%.

    What Do Bitcoin ETF Flows Say About Institutional Demand?

    US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.81 million in net outflows on 28 August, ending a nine-day inflow streak that had brought nearly $3 billion into the funds since 17 August.

    ARK 21Shares ARKB accounted for $114.9 million of the outflows, followed by Bitwise BITB at $49.7 million and BlackRock IBIT at $33.4 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was among the few funds to attract new money, recording $9.3 million in inflows.

    The distribution of outflows is significant. IBIT’s relatively small share of the redemptions points to profit-taking after a rapid rally rather than a broad institutional exit. August month-to-date inflows remain above $3.1 billion, making it the strongest month of 2026. The funds collectively hold more than one million bitcoin, and the reversal came one day after their combined net assets crossed $100 billion.

    Ether ETFs moved in the opposite direction, adding $102 million on the same day and recording a tenth consecutive session of inflows.

    ETF creations require fund managers to buy spot Bitcoin, while redemptions require them to sell. If outflows continue this week, the market could lose the buying support that helped hold the $80,000 level.

    What Does the Bitcoin Chart Show?

    Bitcoin bottomed near $62,277 in mid-August before moving almost vertically higher. It cleared the 200-day exponential moving average at $72,170 within days and then ran into resistance at $78,670. The price is now sitting near that level without managing to close above it.

    The difficulty is that $78,670 also capped Bitcoin’s early-May rally. At that time, BTC consolidated just below the level for two weeks, failed to break through and fell to the low $60,000s by June.

    The current setup closely resembles that earlier structure, although there is one important difference. In May, the 200-day EMA was above the market and declining. It is now below the price at $72,170 and has begun to flatten.

    Momentum is also cooling. The daily RSI is 71.03, placing it in overbought territory, and it has already fallen below its own moving average at 74.90.

    The sharp advance also created a volume vacuum between approximately $68,000 and $76,000. Such thinly traded areas can accelerate moves in either direction.

    Bitcoin Price Targets if BTC Breaks Higher

    The next bullish move depends on a daily close above $78,670 supported by strong volume.

    $81,455: This is the first target, based on the 28 August high and the 50-week moving average near $81,000. That moving average has separated bull and bear phases through much of Bitcoin’s history and remains one of the most important levels in the current cycle. A sustained breakout above $82,000 would require genuine spot demand rather than short covering.

    $88,000: This is the next major target and the first clear structural resistance above $81,455.

    $100,000: This remains the stretch case. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has indicated that his year-end forecast may now be too low, although reaching $100,000 would likely require the Federal Reserve narrative to turn more dovish after a soft inflation reading before 16 September.

    Bitcoin Downside Price Targets

    A second rejection at $78,670 would leave several clearly defined support levels below.

    $74,450: This is the first support and the most likely destination for a normal pullback. Holding this level would keep the broader uptrend intact.

    $72,170: The 200-day EMA is the key technical line. A loss of this level would suggest that the August advance was a bear-market rally.

    $66,803 to $65,000: This support shelf formed through July and early August. A decline into this zone would erase most of the recent advance but leave the broader structure repairable.

    $62,277: This is the origin of the rally. A complete round trip back to this level would represent a textbook failed breakout.

    $58,000: This is the bear-case target. Glassnode has warned that sellers appear exhausted while buyers remain absent, and that a break below $58,500 could open the way to a deeper decline. Michael Terpin has identified an October bottom near $57,000. That scenario would require a September rate hike to materialise.

    For context, Bitcoin has already fallen approximately 54% from its high in the current cycle, although that decline remains shallower than the drawdowns recorded in 2018 and 2022.

    Which Bitcoin News Could Move BTC Next?

    The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate, while bank lobbying pushed Circle and Coinbase shares lower on 28 August. A proposed SEC crypto custody rule, RIN 3235-AN46, entered White House review on 25 August.

    XRP ETFs advanced through two new US filings, and Grayscale launched the first spot Zcash ETP under the ticker ZCSH on NYSE Arca.

    Market sentiment is another risk. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached 72 on 28 August, compared with a 30-day average of 42. When positioning becomes crowded so quickly, relatively small catalysts can trigger outsized selling. Friday’s move demonstrated that risk.

    Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Should Traders Watch?

    Bitcoin is at a decision point rather than in a confirmed trend.

    The bullish scenario requires a daily close above $78,670, a return to net ETF inflows this week and support from the $76,700 to $77,300 area during any retest. If all three conditions are met, Bitcoin could break through $81,000 and open the path toward $88,000.

    The bearish scenario requires a second rejection at the current resistance level followed by a break below $72,170. Given the limited trading volume between current prices and the lower support zones, such a move could reopen $65,000 quickly.

    The base case is range-bound trading. Bitcoin is overbought into resistance, while the underlying structure remains strong but is losing momentum. The Federal Reserve outlook is also uncertain with three weeks remaining before the key September decision.

    A range between $74,450 and $78,670 while the RSI cools would be the healthiest outcome for the bulls, and it is the scenario the chart currently supports. Traders should watch ETF flow data from Monday through Wednesday for the next major signal.

    Source: cryptonews.net

  • Experienced Analyst Claims Bitcoin Has a “Hidden Bearish Divergence”

    Experienced Analyst Claims Bitcoin Has a “Hidden Bearish Divergence”

    Bitcoin Faces Bearish Divergence as $80,000 Resistance Holds

    Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has identified significant technical resistance near $80,000 on Bitcoin’s daily chart, while a hidden bearish divergence has emerged between Bitcoin’s price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

    Bitcoin Rebounds Toward $80,000

    According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s lows in February and June 2026 formed in similar price ranges, with the RSI reaching comparable oversold levels during both periods. After each bottoming move, Bitcoin recovered toward the $80,000 level.

    However, Rekt Capital highlighted a key difference between the current market structure and Bitcoin’s surge in May 2026. Although Bitcoin has again climbed toward $80,000, its latest peak remains below the previous high. At the same time, the RSI has moved above its earlier level and formed a higher peak.

    Hidden Bearish Divergence Signals Risk

    In technical analysis, a pattern in which price forms lower peaks while the RSI records higher peaks is known as hidden bearish divergence. It can indicate that the current upward momentum lacks confirmation from price action and that selling pressure may increase.

    Rekt Capital said this negative technical outlook will remain in place unless Bitcoin breaks above the resistance zone near $80,000 and establishes a new, higher peak.

    This is not investment advice.

  • Bitcoin Hits Resistance: $2.9B in Longs at Risk Below $68,000

    Bitcoin Hits Resistance: $2.9B in Longs at Risk Below $68,000

    Bitcoin has surged approximately 40% from its July low of around $57,800, sparking fresh optimism that the cryptocurrency may have established a definitive market bottom after several months of sideways consolidation. On August 27, $BTC was trading near $80,200. However, this impressive recovery has pushed the leading digital asset back into a major overhead resistance zone that previously triggered a sharp market sell-off.

    Technical indicators and derivatives market metrics indicate that the current rally could face a notable correction unless Bitcoin can decisively break through this key barrier.

    Leveraged Positions Highlight Potential Downside Risks

    An analysis of Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap reveals a heavy concentration of leveraged positions sitting just below the current market price. This imbalance suggests that the path of least resistance could turn downward to flush out over-leveraged buyers.

    The closest downside liquidity cluster is situated around the $77,500 level. Data from CoinGlass indicates that approximately $392.31 million in long positions could face liquidation if $BTC slips to this price point. Because high-density liquidation zones act as liquidity magnets, they often attract price action and fuel market volatility when tested.

    A drop toward $77,500 could trigger a chain reaction of forced selling among leveraged long traders, accelerating downward momentum. An even larger risk cluster lies lower at $68,000, where an estimated $2.9 billion in long positions are vulnerable to liquidation.

    In contrast, the primary liquidity pool for short sellers on the upside is located between $84,200 and $84,215. While Bitcoin features massive liquidity targets on both sides of its current price, the significantly larger volume of leverage on the downside supports a cautious short-term outlook. Currently, $82,500 remains the critical breakout level to watch. Failing to clear this barrier could expose $77,500, followed by $72,000, and eventually the $68,000–$68,300 zone.

    BTC Re-enters the Resistance Zone of a Previous 30% Drop

    Bitcoin is currently trading within the key $79,000–$82,500 range, the same territory that capped its recovery efforts back in May. During that previous consolidation phase, sellers ultimately seized control at these levels, sparking a rejection that drove $BTC down to $57,800—a steep decline of nearly 30% from the upper boundary of the range.

    The current retest of this zone is showing similar signs of market exhaustion. Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above 82, placing it deep in overbought territory (well above the traditional threshold of 70). While an overbought RSI does not guarantee an immediate price drop, it significantly elevates the probability of profit-taking from short-term holders.

    Key Technical Support Levels to Monitor

    Should Bitcoin fail to break above the crucial $82,500 resistance, its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $72,000 will serve as the first major line of defense. A pullback to this level would represent a roughly 10% decline from current prices.

    If selling pressure intensifies, $BTC could decline toward the $68,000–$68,300 area. This region is bolstered by the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, making it a highly formidable support zone.

    Conversely, the bearish outlook would be invalidated if Bitcoin manages a decisive daily close above $82,500. A clean breakout would convert this former major resistance zone into a reliable support base, reinforcing the theory that the July low of $57,800 marked a solid, long-term market bottom.