Key Highlights
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $148.7 million in net outflows on Wednesday, ending a nine-day inflow streak.
- ETF inflows totaled approximately $3.08 billion during the nine-day period but have slowed sharply since September 21.
- Bitfinex says daily ETF purchases may need to recover to roughly $190 million to absorb Bitcoin supply between $84,000 and $86,500.
Bitcoin ETF Demand Loses Momentum
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $148.7 million on Wednesday, ending a nine-day run of inflows. The funds attracted approximately $3.08 billion during that period, but demand has weakened considerably in recent days.
Daily ETF inflows reached approximately $1 billion on September 21 before declining steadily over the following days. The slowdown is significant because sustained ETF buying has been a key source of demand for Bitcoin in the spot market.
Bitfinex Tracks ETF Absorption of New Bitcoin Supply
Bitfinex assessed the changing market balance using its BAER, or Bitfinex Absorption-to-Emission Ratio, indicator. The measure is designed to evaluate how effectively spot Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing newly available Bitcoin supply.
According to Bitfinex, the BAER indicator fell from 25.6 on September 21 to 1.8 on September 29. Bitfinex said the indicator would need to rise to approximately 5—equivalent to about $190 million in daily ETF purchases—to absorb the 1.39 million BTC supply positioned between $84,000 and $86,500.
ETF Inflows Seen as Critical to Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitfinex analysts concluded that ETF inflows need to recover to approximately $190 million per day for Bitcoin to remain above $84,000 and break through the supply zone between $84,000 and $86,500.
If Bitcoin returns to this price area, investors whose holdings are near their cost basis may close their positions at break-even. Such selling could add further pressure to the market, particularly while ETF demand remains below the level identified by Bitfinex.
Why This Matters
The recent ETF outflow and decline in daily purchases indicate that institutional demand has weakened after a strong nine-day inflow period. Bitfinex’s BAER analysis highlights the importance of continued ETF buying in absorbing available Bitcoin supply and supporting prices above $84,000.
The next key developments are whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows regain momentum and whether daily purchases approach the approximately $190 million threshold identified by Bitfinex. A failure to reach that level could make the $84,000–$86,500 supply zone more difficult to overcome.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lose on Wednesday?
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $148.7 million in net outflows on Wednesday.
What is the BAER indicator?
BAER stands for Bitfinex Absorption-to-Emission Ratio. Bitfinex uses it to assess how much newly available Bitcoin supply is being absorbed by spot Bitcoin ETFs.
How much ETF buying does Bitfinex say may be needed?
Bitfinex said ETF purchases may need to reach approximately $190 million per day for Bitcoin to remain above $84,000 and overcome the supply zone between $84,000 and $86,500.
*This is not investment advice.