Daily News 19

Tag: Bitcoin options expiry

  • Bitcoin Flashes Unprecedented 17-Year On-Chain Anomaly

    Bitcoin Flashes Unprecedented 17-Year On-Chain Anomaly

    Bitcoin On-Chain Analyst Flags Unprecedented HODL Wave Anomaly Suggesting Single Whale Accumulation

    Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo has identified an unusual signal in Bitcoin’s HODL Wave data that appears to have no precedent across nearly two decades of available history. The anomaly centers on how Bitcoin was accumulated around the recent market bottom, with Woo suggesting the buying pattern points to a single large entity rather than broad retail participation.

    Analyst Highlights “Anomaly” in 17.5 Years of HODL Wave Data

    In a post on X, Woo emphasized the rarity of the current data pattern:

    We have an ANOMALY.Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale.When it’s many investors, you expect to see spikes in buying activity. That’s happened every time across 17.5 years of Hodl Wave data except now. pic.twitter.com/1cU23USB3R

    According to Woo, the absence of typical accumulation spikes is the key deviation. “Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale,” he stated. The analyst explained that widespread investor participation historically produces clear spikes in Bitcoin’s youngest HODL Wave bands. “When it’s many investors, you expect to see spikes in buying activity. That’s happened every time across 17.5 years of Hodl Wave data except now,” Woo elaborated.

    How HODL Waves Reveal Accumulation Patterns

    HODL Waves segment Bitcoin’s circulating supply based on the duration coins have remained unmoved. The youngest bands are especially sensitive to recent buying activity because newly acquired coins appear there first before migrating to older age bands if held long-term. If those coins are spent again, they cycle back to the youngest bands.

    Normally, a market bottom accompanied by broad participation generates conspicuous bursts in these short-term waves. The current absence of such spikes suggests accumulation may have been driven by a very large investor or a small number of entities operating quietly.

    Single-Whale Theory Remains an Interpretation, Not a Conclusion

    Woo has acknowledged that the single-whale explanation is only one interpretation. Other factors could account for the anomaly, including:

    • Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows
    • Institutional custody arrangements
    • Derivatives market activity
    • Structural changes in Bitcoin’s market since HODL Wave data first became available

    Bitcoin Price Action Remains Fragile Amid Macro Headwinds

    The on-chain signal arrives as Bitcoin navigates shaky price action. As reported by U.Today, the leading cryptocurrency recently slipped below the psychologically important $77,000 level on Thursday. While Bitcoin has since bounced from those lows, market fragility persists due to the high probability of an incoming rate hike.

    Adding to near-term uncertainty, a major derivatives expiry is scheduled for Friday. According to Coinbase Markets, approximately $2.51 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, with BTC accounting for the overwhelming majority of the total notional value.

  • Bitcoin’s Failed $81,000 Breakout Puts $75,000 Back on the Table

    Bitcoin’s Failed $81,000 Breakout Puts $75,000 Back on the Table

    Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 heading into the weekend, positioned between support at $77,000 and resistance at $80,000 after a sharp rejection above $81,000 on Aug. 28.

    A confirmed break below $77,000 could expose the mid-$75,000s. Conversely, a sustained move back above $80,000 would bring Bitcoin’s Aug. 28 high near $81,300 and the $82,000–$83,000 zone back into focus.

    Bitcoin Reverses After Jackson Hole Rate Shock

    Bitcoin reversed from its Aug. 28 intraday high after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks pushed the probability of a September rate hike to around 55%, up from roughly 40% before the speech. Warsh said the Fed still had work to do if inflation failed to return toward its target.

    The resulting repricing pushed Bitcoin back below $80,000 by the close. A level buyers had briefly reclaimed turned into resistance, leaving $77,000 as the immediate level traders must defend.

    Friday’s Bitcoin Options Expiry Removes a Major Market Anchor

    Approximately 81,700 Bitcoin options worth about $6.44 billion expired on Deribit Friday at 08:00 UTC. The expiry removed a positioning cluster that had helped anchor Bitcoin near key strike prices throughout the week.

    Calls outnumbered puts by a ratio of 0.83. The largest concentration of call open interest was around $75,000 and $80,000, the same two levels now defining the weekend’s downside and upside scenarios.

    U.S.-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows through Aug. 27, totaling roughly $3 billion. That source of demand pauses over the weekend because ETF creation and redemption activity follows the same weekday schedule as U.S. equity trading.

    CME shifted to 24/7 trading in late May, with only a weekly maintenance window interrupting the schedule. Regulated institutional derivatives can now respond directly to Saturday and Sunday price moves, well before the Sunday evening Globex reopening that previously marked the return of futures activity.

    As a result, Bitcoin enters the weekend with one of its strongest recent demand channels offline while the market that once remained largely dormant is still fully active.

    Key Bitcoin Price Levels Traders Are Watching

    Above the current price, $80,000 is the key trigger. A sustained reclaim would suggest that buyers absorbed the Aug. 28 hawkish shock and turned the failed breakout into a bear trap.

    That move could open a path toward the Aug. 28 high near $81,300 and then toward the $82,000–$83,000 zone, where fresh options positioning overlaps with technical resistance.

    Below the market, $77,000 plays the same role in reverse. Bitcoin’s Aug. 28 low was printed near $77,078. A loss of that level followed by sustained acceptance below it over several hours would shift the setup from consolidation toward continued downside.

    The initial target would be $75,000–$75,500, an area that already carries heavy options interest from the Aug. 28 expiry.

    A deeper break below $75,000 could expose the low $70,000s, with $72,000–$73,000 emerging as the next significant target if selling pressure holds. The $69,000–$70,000 region remains a longer-term support zone.

    Reaching that area over a single weekend would likely require a larger liquidation event or an additional macroeconomic shock beyond the Aug. 28 repricing.

    Bitcoin Price Targets From Citi and Bernstein

    Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 in July, reduced its ETF inflow assumption to zero, and placed its recession-driven bear case near $53,000. That makes the weekend’s $82,000–$83,000 upside zone notable in its own right because it now overlaps with a major bank’s full-year base case from only eight weeks ago.

    Bernstein’s longer-term outlook is far above the levels relevant to this weekend. The bank has pointed toward $150,000 by mid-2027 and as high as $500,000 in a debasement-driven bull case.

    That forecast applies to an entirely different timeframe and provides context for where Bitcoin could trade over the coming years.

    Bitcoin Bull and Bear Cases for the Weekend

    The bullish scenario has Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 and clearing the Aug. 28 high. CME’s continuous futures market could reinforce that move through the weekend even without support from ETF flows.

    Under that path, $82,000–$83,000 becomes the next major test, while the failed breakout above $81,000 could be interpreted as a shakeout within an intact uptrend.

    The bearish scenario has Bitcoin losing $77,000 and establishing genuine acceptance below the level, forcing out buyers who chased the move above $80,000 earlier in the week.

    In that case, $75,000–$75,500 would become the immediate target. A further breakdown there could open $72,000–$73,000 as the market prices in a correction that has grown beyond the Aug. 28 single-day rate shock.

    Bitcoin’s next major move could be decided before U.S. ETF desks reopen Monday, with regulated futures now trading continuously through the weekend.