Tag: Bitcoin ETF outflows

Treasury Buys $5.2 Billion in Bonds as Bitcoin ETF Flows Remain Negative

Treasury Buyback Targets Off-the-Run Liquidity as Yields Climb

The U.S. Treasury purchased $5.187 billion of long-dated government bonds on Sept. 10, marking the first operation under its expanded buyback program. The move came as Bitcoin investors monitored markets for signs of improving liquidity, but initial cross-market signals pointed in the opposite direction.

Treasury’s daily nominal yield curve showed the 10-year yield rising 12 basis points from 4.83% to 4.95%. The real yield curve, which adjusts for expected inflation, saw the 10-year real yield climb 9 basis points from 2.46% to 2.55%. Higher real yields increase the return hurdle for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Simultaneously, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another net outflow of roughly $282 million, underscoring that regulated-fund demand and broader financing costs remained unfavorable.

Operation Details and Market Mechanics

The buyback targeted off-the-run securities—older Treasury issues that trade less actively than the newest benchmark bonds. Treasury’s official results showed $10.489 billion of securities offered against a $6 billion maximum, with 23 of 40 eligible issues accepted. Maturities ranged from February 2037 through August 2046.

The $6 billion figure was a ceiling. Treasury describes itself as a price-sensitive buyer in its buyback guidance, allowing it to accept less than the maximum when offers do not meet its criteria. Accepted securities are retired after settlement, managing the composition of Treasury’s own debt rather than conducting a Federal Reserve monetary-policy purchase.

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explains that off-the-run bonds trade less frequently, rely more on dealer intermediation, and can benefit from a predictable buyer. The study also characterizes the program as modest relative to overall Treasury market volumes and dealer holdings. The accepted amount demonstrates the operation found more than $5 billion of eligible offers at acceptable prices, though it does not establish whether bid-ask spreads, dealer capacity, or economy-wide financing costs improved—those outcomes require separate market evidence.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Persist

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $282.7 million on Sept. 10, according to Farside Investors. ETF flows signal demand through regulated funds rather than proving one-for-one selling in the spot market. Even with that caveat, the latest outflow offered no evidence that easier conditions were reaching Bitcoin funds.

CryptoSlate’s Bitcoin market page recorded a Sept. 10 reference close of $76,568 before recovering to around $77,800 at press time. That rebound left the asset near the $76,000 support cluster identified in recent market coverage, while real yields and ETF flows still pointed to pressure.

Concurrent Macro Forces Complicate Causal Reading

The buyback shared the session with several macro forces that influence bond yields and risk appetite, preventing a clean causal reading of the Treasury operation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported final-demand producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% year-over-year. Goods prices increased 1.1%, led partly by a 4.2% rise in energy. Persistent pipeline inflation can keep market rates elevated as investors demand more compensation for inflation risk and anticipate tighter monetary policy.

The European Central Bank added another tightening signal by raising its three key rates 25 basis points on Sept. 10. It also noted its asset-purchase and pandemic-program portfolios continued to decline as maturing principal was no longer reinvested.

August U.S. consumer inflation data is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Sept. 11, according to the BLS release calendar. That release is the next immediate test: inflation data consistent with cooling price pressure could pull nominal and real yields lower, while an upside surprise could extend the higher-yield backdrop.

Transmission Signals Needed for Convincing Case

CryptoSlate’s analysis identified accepted purchases and subsequent funding conditions—rather than the headline ceiling—as the meaningful test. The completed purchase supplies the first half of that test; the second half must come from markets.

A convincing transmission signal would combine lower real yields with evidence that easier cash conditions persist beyond settlement. Renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows across more than one session would add demand-side confirmation. Bitcoin holding above the recent support cluster while those macro and flow measures improve would strengthen the case further.

Conversely, a continued squeeze would produce the reverse pattern: elevated real yields, repeated ETF outflows, and Bitcoin losing support while Treasury continues buying selected off-the-run bonds. Each indicator can move for its own reasons, so the case depends on alignment rather than any single print.

Treasury’s purchase may improve liquidity in a specific corner of the government-bond market. The first post-operation readings showed that benefit had yet to appear in the financial conditions most relevant to Bitcoin.

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09/11/2026
Why Crypto Market Is Falling Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Under Pressure
Crypto Market Correction Deepens as Bitcoin Slides Below $78K Amid Macroeconomic Pressure

The cryptocurrency market is facing renewed selling pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) failing to sustain its recent recovery and sliding toward the $77,000 level. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has dropped from approximately $78,500 to around $77,225, dragging the broader market down with it. Total crypto market capitalization has fallen 1.55% to $2.62 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume has risen 3.1% to roughly $84.3 billion, indicating heightened activity amid the decline.

Broad-Based Weakness Across Major Altcoins

The sell-off is not confined to Bitcoin. Major altcoins are posting significant losses, signaling a market-wide risk-off move rather than an isolated correction:
- Ethereum (ETH) remains capped below $2,500 but is showing relative strength against Bitcoin, holding above $2,450.
- XRP has plunged over 3% to $1.34.
- BNB trades around $714.
- Solana (SOL) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) have both dropped below key support levels at $100 and $80, respectively.
Stablecoins continue to dominate market activity, with their combined 24-hour volume exceeding $90 billion, underscoring the ongoing rotation of capital through stablecoin pairs.

Top Gainers and Losers Highlight Divergence

Amid the broad decline, a few assets are bucking the trend. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap:
- Raydium (RAY) leads gainers with a 27.23% jump.
- ether.fi (ETHFI) follows with a 9.60% gain.
- Aptos (APT) and Polkadot (DOT) are up 3.64% and 2.10%, respectively.
On the downside, Zcash (ZEC) has plunged 13.23% but continues to hold above the $1,000 support level.

Key Drivers Behind Today’s Crypto Market Sell-Off

The correction is being driven by a convergence of macroeconomic headwinds that are pushing investors toward a defensive posture across global financial markets.

Middle East Tensions Push Oil Prices Above $100

Escalating geopolitical tensions around critical Middle East shipping routes have sent Brent crude soaring to $109.97 per barrel. The benchmark is on track for an approximate 11% weekly gain, raising fears of sustained energy-supply disruptions that could reignite inflation.

FED Rate-Hike Expectations Surge

Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain tighter monetary policy to combat renewed inflationary pressures. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting has risen to ~71%, up from 61% in prior sessions.

Inflation Concerns Return to the Forefront

The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) showed producer prices rising 0.4% month-over-month in August and 5.4% year-over-year. A hotter-than-expected reading reinforces the case for prolonged restrictive policy, adding another layer of pressure on risk assets like crypto.

Treasury Yields Approach Critical 5% Threshold

U.S. Treasury yields have surged as investors reassess the inflation and rate outlook. The 10-year yield hit 4.979%, flirting with the psychologically important 5% level, while the 30-year yield climbed to ~5.38%.

Stronger Dollar Tightens Global Liquidity

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near 99, supported by rising yields and safe-haven demand. A stronger dollar typically tightens global financial conditions and weighs on dollar-denominated risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Accelerate

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $120.2 million in net outflows in the latest session, following a $46.6 million outflow the prior day. That brings total withdrawals over two consecutive sessions to roughly $166.8 million, signaling weakening institutional buying pressure.

Leveraged Liquidations Amplify Downside Volatility

High leverage is exacerbating the sell-off. Recent data shows over $386 million in leveraged positions liquidated, including approximately $270 million in long positions, fueling a cascading effect as stop-losses trigger further selling.

What’s Next for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market?

The near-term trajectory for crypto will likely hinge on three key macro variables: oil prices, U.S. inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. If these pressures ease, Bitcoin and altcoins could find a footing to stabilize and recover. However, a further spike in energy costs, hotter inflation prints, or sustained ETF outflows could extend the current correction deeper into key support zones.
09/11/2026
Bitcoin Price Stalls Below $78K as ADX Falls to 12

Bitcoin price traded just below $78,000 on Sept. 1 after retreating from the $81,000 area. Fading trend strength, Federal Reserve rate concerns and nearby liquidation clusters kept BTC locked in a narrow range.

Bitcoin price consolidates after a 25% August rally

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin ($BTC) was trading near $77,978 at press time, down about 0.8% on the day and roughly 1.9% over the past week. The cryptocurrency had pulled back from a local high near $81,300 while holding above the $77,700–$77,800 area.

The decline followed an almost 25% advance in August, Bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance since November 2024. Profit-taking increased as buyers struggled to move the price through the $81,000–$82,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the cryptocurrency holding most of its August breakout despite the recent pullback. The price remains well above Supertrend support at $72,310, while the indicator continues to show a bullish trend on the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin price daily chart — Sep. 1 | Source: crypto.news

However, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain moves above $80,000. These rejections have kept the price inside a short-term range, with neither buyers nor sellers showing enough strength to take control.

The daily relative strength index stands at 68.02. Although the reading remains above the neutral 50 level, it has fallen below its moving average at 76.83, indicating that bullish momentum has cooled since the August surge.

Fed concerns and ETF outflows limit Bitcoin demand

The pullback coincided with a more cautious US macroeconomic backdrop. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole that policymakers would have “work to do” if inflation failed to move toward the central bank’s 2% target at a sufficient pace.

Warsh’s comments increased expectations that the Fed could consider another interest-rate increase. Higher rates can pressure Bitcoin by raising the return available on government debt and reducing investors’ willingness to hold risk assets that generate no cash flow.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $201.8 million in net outflows on Aug. 28, according to SoSoValue data. The withdrawal ended a nine-session inflow streak that had brought more than $3 billion into the funds.

Institutional demand has not disappeared. Strategy disclosed that it purchased 4,603 $BTC for approximately $370 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30 at an average price of about $80,318.

The US-listed company now holds 845,050 $BTC. However, its latest purchase has not been enough to push the market back above the company’s recent acquisition price.

Bitcoin liquidity builds on both sides of the range

CoinGlass’s one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows substantial leveraged positions building above and below the current price.

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

The closest large upside clusters sit around $79,500, $80,500 and $81,500–$82,000. A move into those areas could force short sellers to close positions, adding buying pressure and potentially accelerating a breakout.

The clearest downside liquidity is concentrated between approximately $76,500 and $77,000. Another pool extends toward $75,000, making the broader $75,000–$77,000 zone a possible target if Bitcoin loses its current floor.

Pseudonymous analyst Eliz also identified $81,000–$82,000 and $75,000–$77,000 as the two main liquidity areas. The analyst said the market had not received a sufficiently strong liquidity influx to produce a reliable directional setup.

The heatmap does not predict which cluster Bitcoin will reach first. Instead, it identifies areas where forced position closures could increase volatility once the price exits its present range.

Weak ADX points to continued Bitcoin range trading

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart supports the consolidation outlook. The Bollinger Bands place their midpoint at $78,242, slightly above the current price.

Bitcoin price 4-hour chart — Sep. 1 | Source: crypto.news

The upper Bollinger Band stands at $79,062, while the lower band is near $77,422. Bitcoin is trading in the lower half of the channel but has not produced a confirmed close below its lower boundary.

A break above $79,062 would put $80,000 back in focus, followed by the heavier liquidation zone around $81,000–$82,000. The daily chart places the next major resistance level near $82,842.

A daily close above $82,842 would clear the recent high and could confirm that the August rally has resumed. Until then, repeated rejections below that level leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another range reversal.

On the downside, a sustained break below $77,422 would expose the liquidity cluster near $76,500–$77,000. Losing the broader $75,000 level could open a deeper pullback toward daily Supertrend support at $72,310.

The 4-hour average directional index has dropped to 12.26. Readings below 20 generally show that an asset lacks a strong trend, supporting the possibility of further sideways trading until Bitcoin breaks one of the range boundaries.

For US investors, ETF flows and interest-rate expectations remain the main near-term catalysts. A return to sustained spot ETF inflows could help buyers challenge $82,000, while renewed outflows or stronger rate-hike expectations could increase pressure on the $75,000–$77,000 support area.

09/01/2026
Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Down Today?

Bitcoin (BTC) fell about 0.7% over the 24 hours to around $77,800 on Aug. 31, extending its retreat after another failed attempt to hold above the $80,000 level.

The decline followed a shift in global market expectations after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Warsh said inflation remained too high and indicated that further tightening could be necessary to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.

The implied probability of a September rate increase climbed to approximately 57% on Monday, while the two-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in more than a month. Barclays also revised its forecast after the speech and now expects two 25-basis-point rate increases, in September and December. The bank had previously expected interest rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026.

Bitcoin pressured by higher yields and geopolitical tensions

Higher yields weighed on other risk assets. Asian equities fell on Monday, while US and European stock futures traded lower as markets adjusted to the prospect of tighter monetary policy.

Renewed conflict between the US and Iran added to selling pressure over the weekend. US forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, followed by retaliatory Iranian attacks against US forces in Jordan.

Brent crude subsequently rose about 3.3% to $91.01 per barrel. The increase in oil prices added to inflation concerns as markets were already pricing in a higher probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase.

Bitcoin entered the latest period of macroeconomic pressure after its strong August recovery stalled around $80,000. BTC gained roughly 23% over the past month and briefly traded above $81,000 last week, but repeated attempts to establish support in the $80,000-$82,000 region failed.

Selling accelerated early on Aug. 31 after Bitcoin reached about $79,300 late on Saturday before falling below $78,000. The cryptocurrency briefly dropped toward $77,300, then surged toward $78,600 before giving up those gains.

Leveraged positions contributed to the speed of the decline. Bitcoin futures open interest stood near $54.8 billion on Aug. 30, while roughly $390 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the previous 24 hours. Long positions accounted for about 70% of the losses.

Institutional demand also weakened before the weekend. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $201.8 million in net outflows on Aug. 28 after receiving $314.4 million on Aug. 25, $232.1 million on Aug. 26 and $242.2 million on Aug. 27, according to SoSoValue data.

Despite Friday’s reversal, the funds remained at approximately $3.3 billion in net inflows for August.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the price holding well above all four major exponential moving averages despite its retreat from $80,000.

On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin was trading near $77,800, below its 20-period EMA at $78,207, 50-period EMA at $78,288 and 100-period EMA at $77,399. The price remained above the 200-period EMA at $74,572.

Bitcoin technical analysis

The setup indicates that short-term momentum has weakened, with Bitcoin trading below its 20- and 50-period moving averages. However, the price remains above the 100- and 200-period EMAs, leaving the broader recovery structure intact for now.

A sustained break below the $77,400 area could expose Bitcoin to further downside toward the 200-period EMA near $74,600. On the upside, a move back above the $78,200-$78,300 zone would bring the recent highs near $79,000-$80,000 into focus.

The Stochastic RSI has also retreated from overbought territory. The faster line stands at 43.71, below the slower line at 46.56, indicating that near-term buying momentum has eased.

A renewed move above $78,300 could signal improving momentum, while a deeper decline in the Stochastic RSI would reinforce the risk of further consolidation or a pullback. The bearish crossover shows that upside momentum has weakened while Bitcoin remains below $80,000.

The Directional Movement Index (DMI) is not currently indicating a clear bearish trend. The positive directional indicator stands at 19.02, above the negative directional indicator at 15.40, while ADX is at 24.44.

These readings suggest that buyers retain a slight directional advantage, although the relatively narrow gap between the two directional indicators points to limited conviction.

Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the $78,200-$78,300 area keeps that zone as immediate resistance. A sustained move above it could open the way toward $79,000 and the $80,000 psychological level.

On the downside, the 100-period EMA around $77,400 is an important near-term support level. A break below it could expose the $76,000-$77,000 region, with the 200-period EMA near $74,600 providing deeper support.

The Williams %R reading is around -66.11, indicating that Bitcoin has moved back toward the lower portion of its recent trading range but is not yet in oversold territory. The indicator would need to fall below -80 to signal more pronounced oversold conditions.

A recovery in Williams %R alongside a move back above the $78,200-$78,300 EMA cluster would indicate improving short-term momentum. Conversely, a move below -80 combined with a break under the $77,400 support could increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $76,000 and potentially the 200-period EMA.

08/31/2026
Bitcoin ETFs End Nine-Day Inflow Streak as Ethereum Funds Extend Their Run

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $201.9 million in net outflows on Aug. 28, ending a nine-day inflow streak and reducing cumulative net inflows to approximately $55.1 billion. Ethereum ETFs continued to attract investor capital, recording $102.1 million in inflows and extending their own streak to 10 consecutive days.

Bitcoin ETFs reverse after strong inflow streak

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a nine-day winning streak on Friday as investors withdrew money while Ethereum ETFs continued to pull in fresh capital.

According to SoSoValue data, the Bitcoin funds posted $201.9 million in net outflows on Aug. 28. The reversal ended a run of consecutive inflows that had continued since mid-August, lowering cumulative net inflows to about $55.1 billion. The funds held approximately $93.9 billion in total net assets. Decrypt’s ETF flow tracker changed its Bitcoin sentiment reading to “bearish” on the day.

Myriad: Bitcoin’s next price move? Click to make your prediction.

An exchange-traded fund, or ETF, is an investment vehicle that holds an underlying asset and trades on a traditional stock exchange. It allows investors to buy and sell shares through a standard brokerage account. A spot Bitcoin ETF holds Bitcoin directly, with each share representing a claim on a portion of the fund’s holdings. This structure gives investors indirect exposure to Bitcoin’s price without requiring them to purchase the cryptocurrency themselves.

The convenience of spot Bitcoin ETFs has helped attract traditional and institutional investors. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 after years of regulatory rejections and quickly became some of the fastest-growing ETFs in history.

Daily ETF flows now shift between heavy accumulation and sharp withdrawals as Bitcoin prices and the broader macroeconomic environment change. As a result, market observers closely monitor fund flows as a measure of investor sentiment.

Bitcoin ETF Net Flows. Image: Decrypt

Ethereum ETFs extend 10-day inflow streak

Friday’s pullback followed an otherwise strong period for Bitcoin ETFs. The funds attracted $2.8 billion during an eight-day inflow streak as Bitcoin tested $80,000. They also recorded their largest single-day inflow since May, with daily inflows repeatedly exceeding $300 million and reaching more than $600 million on Aug. 20.

Ethereum ETFs showed no comparable weakness. The funds brought in $102.1 million on Aug. 28, extending their inflow streak to 10 days, according to SoSoValue. Their cumulative net inflows rose to approximately $12.9 billion, while total net assets reached $13.8 billion.

Ethereum ETF Net Flows. Image: Decrypt

Decrypt’s tracker maintained its Ethereum reading at “bullish.” The sustained demand represents a notable shift, with Ethereum products in recent sessions nearly matching or exceeding Bitcoin’s daily inflows despite having a much smaller asset base.

The divergent ETF flows emerged as Bitcoin declined after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole. The comments cooled a rally that had pushed Bitcoin toward $80,000, although the cryptocurrency later recovered to around $79,000 over the weekend.

The single-day Bitcoin ETF outflow remains modest compared with the tens of billions of dollars the funds have accumulated since their launch. The end of a nine-day inflow streak does not necessarily indicate a broader decline in institutional demand, which has remained strong across both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

08/30/2026
Bitcoin Price Correction: Why BTC Stalled at $78,000 Again

Bitcoin rose 26% in less than two weeks to reach $81,455 before stopping at the same price level that ended its previous rally. As of Sunday, 30 August at 11:37 UTC, BTC/USD traded at $78,019 on Bitstamp, down 0.12% on the day.

Why Did Bitcoin Correct After Reaching $81,000?

The catalyst was macroeconomic rather than crypto-specific.

On Friday, 28 August, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote. He highlighted PCE inflation running at 3.7% year over year and 4.1% annualised over the previous six months, signalling that the Fed still has more work to do.

Markets repriced rapidly. September rate-hike odds on CME FedWatch rose to roughly 56% from 35% a day earlier, reaching 60% intraday. Gold fell 2.4%, US equities surrendered their early gains, and Bitcoin dropped from $81,455 to a low of $76,845 before closing near $77,800.

Forced liquidations intensified the decline. CoinGlass recorded approximately $486 million in liquidations across about 95,731 traders, including $368 million in long positions. Altcoins performed worse, with Ethereum closing at $2,443, down 2.70%; Solana at $104.13, down 4.65%; and XRP at $1.3833, down 4.80%.

What Do Bitcoin ETF Flows Say About Institutional Demand?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.81 million in net outflows on 28 August, ending a nine-day inflow streak that had brought nearly $3 billion into the funds since 17 August.

ARK 21Shares ARKB accounted for $114.9 million of the outflows, followed by Bitwise BITB at $49.7 million and BlackRock IBIT at $33.4 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was among the few funds to attract new money, recording $9.3 million in inflows.

The distribution of outflows is significant. IBIT’s relatively small share of the redemptions points to profit-taking after a rapid rally rather than a broad institutional exit. August month-to-date inflows remain above $3.1 billion, making it the strongest month of 2026. The funds collectively hold more than one million bitcoin, and the reversal came one day after their combined net assets crossed $100 billion.

Ether ETFs moved in the opposite direction, adding $102 million on the same day and recording a tenth consecutive session of inflows.

ETF creations require fund managers to buy spot Bitcoin, while redemptions require them to sell. If outflows continue this week, the market could lose the buying support that helped hold the $80,000 level.

What Does the Bitcoin Chart Show?

Bitcoin bottomed near $62,277 in mid-August before moving almost vertically higher. It cleared the 200-day exponential moving average at $72,170 within days and then ran into resistance at $78,670. The price is now sitting near that level without managing to close above it.

The difficulty is that $78,670 also capped Bitcoin’s early-May rally. At that time, BTC consolidated just below the level for two weeks, failed to break through and fell to the low $60,000s by June.

The current setup closely resembles that earlier structure, although there is one important difference. In May, the 200-day EMA was above the market and declining. It is now below the price at $72,170 and has begun to flatten.

Momentum is also cooling. The daily RSI is 71.03, placing it in overbought territory, and it has already fallen below its own moving average at 74.90.

The sharp advance also created a volume vacuum between approximately $68,000 and $76,000. Such thinly traded areas can accelerate moves in either direction.

Bitcoin Price Targets if BTC Breaks Higher

The next bullish move depends on a daily close above $78,670 supported by strong volume.

$81,455: This is the first target, based on the 28 August high and the 50-week moving average near $81,000. That moving average has separated bull and bear phases through much of Bitcoin’s history and remains one of the most important levels in the current cycle. A sustained breakout above $82,000 would require genuine spot demand rather than short covering.

$88,000: This is the next major target and the first clear structural resistance above $81,455.

$100,000: This remains the stretch case. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has indicated that his year-end forecast may now be too low, although reaching $100,000 would likely require the Federal Reserve narrative to turn more dovish after a soft inflation reading before 16 September.

Bitcoin Downside Price Targets

A second rejection at $78,670 would leave several clearly defined support levels below.

$74,450: This is the first support and the most likely destination for a normal pullback. Holding this level would keep the broader uptrend intact.

$72,170: The 200-day EMA is the key technical line. A loss of this level would suggest that the August advance was a bear-market rally.

$66,803 to $65,000: This support shelf formed through July and early August. A decline into this zone would erase most of the recent advance but leave the broader structure repairable.

$62,277: This is the origin of the rally. A complete round trip back to this level would represent a textbook failed breakout.

$58,000: This is the bear-case target. Glassnode has warned that sellers appear exhausted while buyers remain absent, and that a break below $58,500 could open the way to a deeper decline. Michael Terpin has identified an October bottom near $57,000. That scenario would require a September rate hike to materialise.

For context, Bitcoin has already fallen approximately 54% from its high in the current cycle, although that decline remains shallower than the drawdowns recorded in 2018 and 2022.

Which Bitcoin News Could Move BTC Next?

The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate, while bank lobbying pushed Circle and Coinbase shares lower on 28 August. A proposed SEC crypto custody rule, RIN 3235-AN46, entered White House review on 25 August.

XRP ETFs advanced through two new US filings, and Grayscale launched the first spot Zcash ETP under the ticker ZCSH on NYSE Arca.

Market sentiment is another risk. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached 72 on 28 August, compared with a 30-day average of 42. When positioning becomes crowded so quickly, relatively small catalysts can trigger outsized selling. Friday’s move demonstrated that risk.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Should Traders Watch?

Bitcoin is at a decision point rather than in a confirmed trend.

The bullish scenario requires a daily close above $78,670, a return to net ETF inflows this week and support from the $76,700 to $77,300 area during any retest. If all three conditions are met, Bitcoin could break through $81,000 and open the path toward $88,000.

The bearish scenario requires a second rejection at the current resistance level followed by a break below $72,170. Given the limited trading volume between current prices and the lower support zones, such a move could reopen $65,000 quickly.

The base case is range-bound trading. Bitcoin is overbought into resistance, while the underlying structure remains strong but is losing momentum. The Federal Reserve outlook is also uncertain with three weeks remaining before the key September decision.

A range between $74,450 and $78,670 while the RSI cools would be the healthiest outcome for the bulls, and it is the scenario the chart currently supports. Traders should watch ETF flow data from Monday through Wednesday for the next major signal.

Source: cryptonews.net

08/30/2026
Bitcoin Shorts Squeezed for $6.55 Billion in August as Weak Demand Raises September Doubts

After a bullish August rally, Bitcoin is entering September with momentum—and growing uncertainty over whether its gains can continue.

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin is set to close August with a return of more than 24%, its strongest monthly performance since the 2017 cycle. The rally also triggered a major short squeeze across the derivatives market, forcing bearish traders to liquidate their positions.

More than $9.71 billion has been liquidated from the cryptocurrency market over the past two weeks, including $6.55 billion in short positions and $3.16 billion in long positions. Shorts represented roughly two-thirds of total liquidations, showing that bearish traders were heavily squeezed as Bitcoin moved higher.

Source: X

Bitcoin funding rates rise as traders assess the next move

The key question now is where Bitcoin ($BTC) is headed next.

Data from CryptoQuant suggests that market participants remain bullish. Bitcoin’s funding rates on Binance increased by more than 42% in less than a week, even as $BTC consolidated below the $80,000 level.

With many leveraged positions liquidated, the market has undergone a reset that could leave room for another move higher. However, on-chain data may be pointing to a different explanation for Bitcoin’s latest advance.

The rally may have resulted from the unwinding of excessive leverage rather than fresh spot demand. If that is the case, the move could prove to be a short-term relief rally and set the stage for a more bearish September.

Bitcoin faces $9 billion in liquidations and weakening demand

A sustained breakout above resistance requires strong investor conviction. Yet that conviction appears to be fading as the market approaches September.

According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than $201 million in net outflows on August 28, ending a nine-day streak of inflows.

Another trend in the current market cycle could also affect Bitcoin’s momentum. As the chart below shows, smaller holders accumulated Bitcoin as its price fell below $67,000. Wallets holding fewer than 100 $BTC recorded heavy gross inflows.

However, short-term holders are often among the first market participants to take profits when sentiment turns risk-off or Bitcoin fails to break through key resistance. That behavior could increase selling pressure around the $80,000 level.

Source: Glassnode

Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio adds to September uncertainty

Technical factors are adding to the risks facing Bitcoin. The $ETH/$BTC ratio is currently at a key breakout level, with analysts anticipating a major move.

At the same time, weakening Bitcoin spot demand, rising short-term holder supply and increasingly bearish sentiment have made the asset’s setup less convincing. If $ETH/$BTC breaks higher while Bitcoin struggles, it could indicate that capital is rotating away from Bitcoin and place additional pressure on the September outlook.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s late-August rally may fail to deliver on its bullish promise. The more than $9 billion in crypto liquidations are central to that concern: because most of the liquidations came from short positions, the recent advance may have been driven primarily by a short squeeze rather than strong underlying buying.

If that interpretation is correct, Bitcoin’s latest rally could lose momentum and leave the cryptocurrency market facing a bearish September.

08/30/2026