Daily News 19

Tag: Bitcoin bull run

  • Bitcoin Bull Run Revives as Price Jumps 8%

    Bitcoin Bull Run Revives as Price Jumps 8%

    Key Highlights

    • Bitcoin rallies 8.10% from Wednesday’s low of $75,064, reclaiming the 365-day moving average at $80,701 for the first time since November 2025.
    • Long-term holder supply hits a record accumulation phase since February while short-term holder supply declines, signaling strengthening conviction among strong hands.
    • Despite technical resilience, analysts warn of subdued trading activity versus prior bull markets and potential headwinds from upcoming rate hikes and a rising U.S. Dollar Index.

    Bitcoin’s Technical Breakthrough Above Yearly Moving Average

    Bitcoin ($BTC) has staged a significant recovery, surging 8.10% from Wednesday’s low of $75,064 to trade back above its 365-day moving average, currently situated at $80,701. This marks the first time since November 2025 that the asset has sustained positioning above this critical long-term trend indicator. The bounce follows a pullback from the $82,000 level earlier in September, a decline the market appears to have attributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The speed of the recovery suggests the prior dip represented a pricing-in of hawkish monetary policy expectations rather than a fundamental shift in demand.

    Macro Headwinds Fail to Derail Recovery

    The ascent occurs against a backdrop of considerable macroeconomic adversity. The CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate, liquidity conditions are tightening due to persistent inflation, and a series of rate hikes is projected for 2027. Compounding the pressure, the Bank of Japan has also moved to raise interest rates. According to crypto researcher Bull Theory on X, this resilience—absorbing multiple bearish catalysts while pushing higher—is “reminiscent of the 2023 market bottom.” The ability to reclaim the yearly moving average amid such conditions is being interpreted by bulls as a major victory, signaling underlying structural strength rather than speculative froth.

    On-Chain Data Reveals Shifting Holder Dynamics

    Supporting the bullish technical structure, on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal a profound shift in investor behavior. Since February, the total supply held by long-term holders (LTHs) has trended steadily higher, while the supply held by short-term holders (STHs)—defined as coins with an age of 155 days or under—has been in consistent decline. Crypto analyst Funding Vest noted on CryptoQuant, “It was a record phase of accumulation.” This dynamic indicates that weak hands are being shaken out of the market while higher-conviction participants accumulate aggressively. Analysts suggest this supply constriction could act as a catalyst for a supply shock if prices continue to appreciate.

    Analyst Perspectives: Bullish Parallels and Cautionary Signals

    However, the picture is not uniformly optimistic. Analyst Joao Wedson highlighted on X that trading activity remains subdued compared to previous bull market peaks, potentially evidencing weaker retail participation. Wedson cautioned, “Right now, Bitcoin is still in the process of breaking its bearish trend. It might not even have fully transitioned into a bull run.” The looming prospect of further rate hikes and a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) presents tangible risks for risk-on assets, suggesting the path forward may be volatile despite the current technical victory.

    Why This Matters

    The reconquest of the 365-day moving average is a widely watched milestone that often signals a transition from bearish to bullish market structure. The convergence of this technical signal with a historic accumulation trend among long-term holders suggests the current rally is backed by fundamental conviction rather than leverage-driven speculation. However, the macroeconomic overhang—specifically the trajectory of global interest rates and dollar strength—remains the primary variable. If central banks maintain a hawkish stance, the liquidity required to sustain a full-blown bull run may be constrained, potentially trapping the market in a prolonged consolidation or “chop” phase. The divergence between smart money accumulation and retail apathy is a classic late-bear/early-bull signature that warrants close monitoring of volume metrics in the coming weeks.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Has Bitcoin confirmed a new bull market?

    Not definitively. While reclaiming the 365-day moving average is a necessary condition for a bull market, analysts like Joao Wedson caution that Bitcoin is still “in the process of breaking its bearish trend” and may not have fully transitioned. Sustained volume expansion and higher highs are required for confirmation.

    What does the long-term holder accumulation trend indicate?

    Data from CryptoQuant shows a record accumulation phase since February, with LTH supply rising and STH supply falling. This signals that experienced, high-conviction investors are absorbing supply from weaker participants, a dynamic that historically precedes supply-constrained price appreciation.

    What are the main risks to Bitcoin’s current rally?

    The primary risks are macroeconomic: a projected series of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2027, ongoing quantitative tightening, Bank of Japan policy normalization, and a rising U.S. Dollar Index. Additionally, subdued retail trading volume suggests the rally lacks broad-based participation, making it vulnerable to sudden sentiment shifts.

  • Analytics Firm Says “Early Bull Run Has Begun” for Bitcoin, Shares What It Expects Next

    Analytics Firm Says “Early Bull Run Has Begun” for Bitcoin, Shares What It Expects Next

    Key Highlights

    • The DeFi Report signals Bitcoin is transitioning into the “early bull” phase, with the 50-week moving average near $80,000 serving as the critical support level to confirm the cycle shift.
    • The platform’s four-phase model projects a 9-to-12-month early bull period before a “wealth creation” phase marked by mainstream media attention, accelerated on-chain activity, and a potential tenfold surge in Solana DEX volumes.
    • Structural tailwinds—including improved liquidity conditions, deeper TradFi integration, and mobile infrastructure maturation—could propel the coming cycle beyond the previous peak, though on-chain data warns speculative assets may top out months before Bitcoin.

    The DeFi Report’s Four-Phase Cycle Framework

    In its latest market outlook, The DeFi Report argues that Bitcoin may be entering the initial stage of a new bull cycle. The analytics platform structures the market cycle into four distinct phases: “early bull,” “wealth creation,” “wealth distribution,” and “wealth destruction.” According to the analysis, current market structure is signaling a transition into the first phase, setting the stage for a multi-year expansion period that historically lasts nearly three years before a roughly one-year bearish contraction.

    Early Bull Phase Indicators and the $80,000 Support Level

    The report identifies a decisive technical threshold for confirming the early bull phase: Bitcoin must establish support around its 50-week moving average, currently sitting at approximately $80,000. This period typically spans 9 to 12 months, during which crypto-native investors begin detecting speculative activity ahead of the broader market. Complementary signals to monitor include rising Bitcoin dominance from cycle lows, the return of new users, increased DeFi incentives and marketing spend, and the launch of fresh projects—all hallmarks of early-cycle capital rotation.

    Wealth Creation Phase Dynamics and Solana’s Historical Performance

    Should the early bull phase hold, The DeFi Report anticipates a more pronounced Bitcoin rally in the subsequent “wealth creation” period. This phase is characterized by heightened mainstream media coverage, an accelerated influx of retail and institutional investors, and a measurable expansion in DeFi borrowing, leverage utilization, stablecoin supply, and on-chain transaction volumes. The platform highlights that during the prior cycle, trading volume on Solana decentralized exchanges increased approximately tenfold in this window, while Bitcoin futures funding rates and open interest also climbed sharply.

    Risk Factors in Distribution and Destruction Phases

    The analysis cautions that risks compound in the cycle’s later stages. The DeFi Report specifically notes that high-yielding speculative assets have historically peaked months before Bitcoin reaches its own top, prompting capital rotation across sectors. In the “wealth distribution” phase, a structural dynamic emerges where early-cycle investors realize profits while new entrants provide exit liquidity—a pattern that precedes the final “wealth destruction” phase and the onset of the bear market.

    On-Chain Analytics as Market Cycle Compass

    Central to The DeFi Report’s methodology is the use of on-chain data, which the platform argues differentiates crypto from traditional asset classes. By tracking investor cost bases, coin movements, and leverage accumulation across wallet cohorts, analysts can observe how supply changes hands between groups with different acquisition prices. This flow—specifically which cohort is accumulating or distributing—serves as a leading indicator for identifying the prevailing market phase.

    Structural Tailwinds for a Stronger Cycle Ahead

    The report contends that the upcoming bull cycle could surpass the magnitude of the 2020–2021 run. The previous expansion was constrained by the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction, persistently elevated interest rates, capital diversion toward AI equities, and gold outperforming Bitcoin. In contrast, the current backdrop features more accommodative liquidity conditions, deeper integration of Bitcoin into the traditional financial system via spot ETFs and custody infrastructure, accelerating global crypto adoption, and the maturation of mobile application layers that lower barriers to entry for retail participants.

    Perpetual DEX Evolution: Lighter and Robinhood Integration

    On-chain perpetual trading infrastructure is singled out as a key growth vertical. The DeFi Report highlights Lighter, a perpetuals platform built within the Ethereum ecosystem, noting its product architecture and reliance on Ethereum’s security model. The platform has reportedly begun routing a significant share of its perpetual trading volume through Robinhood, signaling a convergence between decentralized trading venues and mainstream brokerage distribution channels.

    Why This Matters

    The DeFi Report’s framework offers a structured lens for navigating crypto’s cyclical volatility. By anchoring phase transitions to quantifiable on-chain metrics—such as the 50-week moving average reclaim, cohort-based cost-basis analysis, and stablecoin supply growth—the analysis moves beyond narrative-driven speculation. For market participants, the distinction between early-cycle accumulation and late-cycle distribution carries direct implications for position sizing, sector allocation, and risk management. Moreover, the identification of structural improvements—TradFi rails, mobile UX, and regulatory clarity—suggests the asset class may be maturing into a more resilient, institutionally accessible market, potentially altering the amplitude and duration of future cycles.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the key technical level confirming Bitcoin’s early bull phase according to The DeFi Report?
    The critical indicator is Bitcoin establishing support around the 50-week moving average at approximately $80,000.
    How long does the early bull phase typically last, and what follows it?
    The early bull phase historically lasts 9 to 12 months and is followed by the “wealth creation” phase, marked by mainstream media attention, accelerated on-chain activity, and significant volume expansion on platforms like Solana DEXs.
    Why does The DeFi Report believe the next cycle could be stronger than the last one?
    The report cites more supportive liquidity conditions, Bitcoin’s deeper integration into traditional finance (e.g., spot ETFs), rising global crypto adoption, and mature mobile infrastructure as tailwinds absent during the previous cycle, which was hampered by Fed tightening, high rates, AI capital competition, and gold outperformance.