Armstrong’s $400,000 Bitcoin Prediction Rooted in Halving Cycles

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong reiterated his long-term Bitcoin price target during a September 19 interview with MoneyRehabPodcast, stating he still sees a path for Bitcoin to reach $400,000 by 2030. Armstrong’s view is built around Bitcoin’s historical market cycles, specifically the network’s programmed halving events that cut the amount of new BTC entering circulation approximately once every four years.

According to Armstrong, previous halving periods have often been followed by sharp price runs, then major pullbacks that can drag on for close to a year. He suggested another similar cycle could take Bitcoin to around three times its previous record price before 2030. However, Armstrong made clear that the estimate depends on Bitcoin behaving in a way that resembles earlier cycles, and that earlier price action cannot tell investors exactly what comes next. The target is therefore a possible outcome, not a fixed forecast.

As of 16:01 WIB on September 25, Coinbase shares were priced at $198.85 on Pluang, down 0.18% over 24 hours. The crypto exchange held a market value of $52.27 billion, while COIN’s 52-week trading range stood between $141.09 and $387.27.

Coinbase Expands Lending with Fixed-Rate Bitcoin-Backed Loans

Coinbase has also expanded its lending business with fixed-rate USDC loans backed by Bitcoin. The new product allows borrowers to receive their interest charge and repayment deadline at the start of the loan instead of watching the cost move with market conditions.

The fixed-rate offering works with Morpho Midnight, a decentralized lending protocol introduced in July. The protocol does not retain any customer funds and allows for lending with predetermined borrowing rates and fixed terms. Transactions on the network will be settled using Base, Coinbase’s second-layer blockchain built upon Ethereum.

Coinbase currently provides another cryptocurrency lending product called Morpho Blue, which uses variable borrowing rates that depend on available liquidity and demand for loans, making customers pay higher rates during periods of increased borrowing activity. The fixed product will coexist with the current offering rather than replace it. Currently, Coinbase’s variable-rate lending market features more than $1.4 billion in active loans with total collateral of nearly $3 billion.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge to $2.4 Billion Weekly

Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has picked up sharply. The Block, using SoSoValue figures, reported that U.S. funds received $2.4 billion of net inflows during the week ending September 25, marking their biggest weekly intake since October 2025. Monday accounted for a large chunk of that money, with the 12 Bitcoin ETFs tracked by SoSoValue collecting $999 million in one day. That marked their strongest daily result since October 6, 2025 and ranked as the ninth-biggest daily inflow since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024.

The buybacks put the flows back into positive territory for 2026. Year-to-date net flow figures were around $934.1 million. As of July 13, that same group was showing about $5.8 billion in net outflows. The funds have generated about $57.6 billion in net inflows since inception. Net assets for all funds totaled about $108.4 billion as of Friday.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the change in flows is due to the Treasury’s plans to increase purchases of longer-term Treasuries.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Discloses Personal Bitcoin Holdings

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also disclosed personal Bitcoin exposure in his newly released 2025 annual ethics filing. The filing lists at least $3.1 million across cash, retirement investments, and BTC. The disclosure includes more than $1 million sitting in one bank account. Hegseth, a former Fox News host who became Defense secretary in January 2025, is also facing impeachment demands from members of his own party over his handling of the war with Iran.

Hegseth had a total of five retirement accounts that ranged in value between about $2.05 million and $4.35 million. Three of these accounts, which belonged to Hegseth, were worth about $500,000 to $1.25 million. His wife, Jennifer Hegseth, had a total of two Rollover IRAs that were worth about $1.55 million to $3.1 million.

The couple also disclosed three cash accounts. One was reported only as being “worth more than $1 million.” Their Bitcoin position was valued between approximately $16,000 and $65,000. The wide range in the federal disclosure forms makes it difficult to make a clear year-to-year wealth comparison. In Hegseth’s nomination form from December 2024, the total amount of financial assets falls within $1.4 million and $3.4 million. In the most recent filing, the lower range is $3.1 million with no upper limit since there is no ceiling for the largest cash account.

The only major change is in the bank balance. Hegseth’s earlier disclosure reveals an account called “U.S. Bank #2” which ranged from $15,001 to $50,000. In the current filing, the account holding the same name ranges above $1 million.

Why This Matters

The convergence of institutional price predictions, expanding crypto-native financial infrastructure, and surging ETF demand signals deepening mainstream integration of Bitcoin into traditional finance. Armstrong’s halving-cycle thesis, while speculative, reflects a widely watched analytical framework among market participants. Coinbase’s launch of fixed-rate borrowing via Morpho Midnight on Base demonstrates how centralized exchanges are bridging into decentralized finance primitives, offering users predictable costs previously unavailable in variable-rate DeFi lending. The record-breaking ETF inflows—reversing months of outflows—suggest renewed institutional appetite, potentially influenced by macro shifts in Treasury policy as noted by Balchunas. Meanwhile, a sitting Cabinet secretary’s disclosed Bitcoin holdings, however modest, mark a notable milestone in political normalization of digital asset ownership.

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