Daily News 19

Tag: AI prediction markets

  • Rain Protocol’s SDK v2 Lowers the Barrier to Creating Prediction Markets

    Rain Protocol’s SDK v2 Lowers the Barrier to Creating Prediction Markets

    Anyone can debate with friends whether a candidate will win an election, a company will beat earnings expectations, or a celebrity couple will stay together. Building a functioning prediction market where participants can stake money on those outcomes is far more complex.

    Prediction markets require infrastructure for creating markets, matching trades, managing liquidity, settling positions, and determining what happens when an outcome is challenged. Until now, much of that work has been concentrated within a small group of platforms that operate the markets themselves. As prediction markets gain users and expand into new applications, attention is shifting from who can trade on these platforms to who can build them.

    Rain Protocol launches SDK v2 for prediction market builders

    Rain Protocol is addressing that challenge with the second version of its software development kit. The permissionless prediction market protocol has launched SDK (Software Development Kit) v2, enabling developers and AI agents to create and operate independent prediction market platforms on networks such as Arbitrum One. The release also includes migration guides for existing users moving from version 1 to version 2.

    SDK v2 incorporates core infrastructure directly into the protocol, including market creation, trading, settlement, resolution, disputes, and appeals. This reduces the amount of work developers need to do at the infrastructure level, allowing them to focus more on the product layer—such as deciding which markets to create and how users will interact with them.

    AI agents can build and operate prediction markets

    The new SDK is designed for human developers as well as AI agents. Machine-readable documentation and built-in agent skills are intended to help AI coding tools understand the protocol and build on it with greater independence. As AI agents take on more software development tasks, Rain expects them to potentially move beyond assisting developers and play a role in creating and operating prediction markets themselves.

    Roy Shaham, CEO of Rain Protocol said, “As the market expands, we expect the biggest shift to come from users being less passive and increasingly a part of the building process. Our goal with SDK v2 is to give developers the freedom to build new types of markets, explore new ways they can be used, and shape them around their own ideas, and we’re eager to see what our community builds with it.”

    On-chain order books added alongside AMM trading

    SDK v2 also expands the available trading infrastructure by adding an on-chain order book alongside Rain’s existing automated market maker (AMM). Builders can use either system depending on the needs of a market. An AMM can provide automated liquidity, while an on-chain order book allows buyers and sellers to place orders that are matched directly on the blockchain.

    The choice may be significant for markets with different liquidity levels, trading volumes, and user behaviors. Other updates improve the user experience after a market goes live. Users can approve a session once rather than authorize every individual action, while builders can receive real-time updates about trades and other market activity.

    The SDK also enables users to convert collateral into Yes and No positions, then convert those positions back into collateral without changing the market price.

    If prediction markets continue expanding beyond a small number of major platforms, the category’s next phase could be shaped as much by the people building markets as by those betting on them. Rain Protocol’s SDK v2 reflects that shift by making prediction markets easier to build, not just use.

    Source: cryptonews.net

  • Crypto.com to Launch Prediction Markets Tracking AI Jobs and Adoption

    Crypto.com to Launch Prediction Markets Tracking AI Jobs and Adoption

    Crypto.com to Launch AI Prediction Contracts Based on Workplace and Consumer Trends

    Crypto.com will introduce prediction contracts allowing users to forecast how quickly artificial intelligence is changing workplaces, consumer behaviour and major industries.

    More than 20 contracts are expected to begin rolling out in September. Unlike prediction markets linked to elections or sporting events, these contracts will be settled using surveys and company disclosures that measure how people and businesses are adopting AI.

    Users will trade on future AI adoption trends

    Crypto.com and PYMNTS have agreed to an exclusive two-year partnership covering the new products, according to their announcement.

    The contracts will trade through OG Prediction Markets, an exchange and clearinghouse regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Crypto.com and other partners will provide access to the markets.

    The initial group of contracts will focus on consumer behaviour, workplace changes, corporate AI adoption, healthcare, retail and financial services. Around 25 additional contracts are expected to be added each quarter.

    Although the individual questions have not yet been published, a contract could ask whether AI use among American workers will exceed a specified level in an upcoming survey.

    Participants would trade based on their expectations for the survey results, with the outcome determining which contracts pay out. Users will not be betting directly on whether AI succeeds or fails. Instead, they will be forecasting what future research shows about AI adoption and its economic effects.

    PYMNTS data will determine contract outcomes

    The markets will rely exclusively on measurements produced by PYMNTS Intelligence.

    PYMNTS surveys 4,000 US adults each month about their use of AI in areas including work, education, shopping and healthcare.

    A separate quarterly survey of 500 US companies examines how businesses use AI agents and automation. The research tracks whether productivity has improved and how employment and software requirements have changed.

    PYMNTS will also review company filings, earnings materials and public statements for evidence of AI investment, revenue changes and workforce effects.

    The organization has collected nearly 30 months of historical data, which will provide a baseline for measuring future changes in AI adoption and its impact across the economy.