Tag: 50-week moving average

Coinbase and Wintermute Release Key Analyses: “The Balance is Shifting in the Bitcoin-Gold Equation! This Week’s Focus Will Be This Level!”
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin has risen over the past month while gold has declined, despite their 90-day correlation approaching a record high.
- Coinbase Institutional said marginal investment demand is favoring Bitcoin even as interest rates remain elevated.
- Wintermute identified $82,500 as Bitcoin’s critical level this week after the cryptocurrency closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025.
Bitcoin Outperforms Gold Despite Near-Record Correlation

Bitcoin is diverging from gold in recent performance, according to an analysis by Coinbase Institutional. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin ($BTC) and gold is nearing a record high, indicating that the two assets have recently tended to move in similar directions. However, the analysis emphasized that a stronger correlation does not necessarily produce similar returns.

Bitcoin rose over the past month, while gold declined during the same period. The divergence highlights how closely correlated assets can still deliver significantly different price movements over shorter time frames.

Coinbase Institutional also pointed to the effect of higher interest rates on investment demand. According to the firm, new marginal demand has shifted toward Bitcoin in an environment of rising rates, with Bitcoin favored despite the higher cost of capital.

“Bitcoin > altın. $BTC’nin altınla korelasyonu rekor düzeye yakın. Ama benzer korelasyonlar benzer getiriler anlamına gelmez. Son bir ayda $BTC yükseldi, altın ise düştü.
The lesson we learned: Marginal demand favors bitcoin despite higher interest rates.

Wintermute Identifies $82,500 as Bitcoin’s First Major Test

Wintermute, a cryptocurrency market maker, has also assessed Bitcoin’s latest move. In its most recent market analysis, the company said Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average last week for the first time since November 2025.

Following that advance, market attention has shifted to the $82,500 level. Wintermute described the level as critical for Bitcoin this week because it marks the upper boundary of the cryptocurrency’s previous consolidation range.

Wintermute said that holding above $82,500 would be important for sustaining Bitcoin’s recent rally. The price has struggled to break through this area for weeks, and sustained trading above it could suggest that the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average represents a more lasting price formation rather than a temporary move.

However, Wintermute expects Bitcoin to test $82,500 several times in the short term. A weekly close below the level could raise questions about the validity of the upward breakout, according to the market maker.

Risk Assets Stay Strong Despite Higher Treasury Yields

Wintermute also noted that risk assets remained strong last week even as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. The observation places Bitcoin’s latest technical test against a backdrop of elevated bond yields and continued strength across risk-oriented markets.

Why This Matters

The developments show that Bitcoin and gold can maintain a high correlation while producing sharply different short-term returns. For Bitcoin, the $82,500 level now represents an important technical marker: holding above it would support the sustainability of the recent rally, while a close below it could weaken confidence in the breakout.

Bitcoin’s position above its 50-week moving average and the continued strength of risk assets are central to Wintermute’s assessment. At the same time, Coinbase Institutional’s analysis indicates that marginal demand is currently favoring Bitcoin despite higher interest rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Bitcoin outperform gold over the past month?

Yes. Bitcoin rose during the last month, while gold declined, even though their 90-day correlation is nearing a record high.

Why is $82,500 important for Bitcoin?

Wintermute identified $82,500 as the upper limit of Bitcoin’s previous consolidation range and said that holding above it is important for sustaining the recent rally.

What could happen if Bitcoin closes below $82,500?

According to Wintermute, a close below $82,500 could raise questions about whether Bitcoin’s upward breakout is valid.

This is not investment advice.
09/29/2026
Bitcoin Clears Key Hurdle That Historically Preceded Major Bull Runs
Key Highlights
- Bitcoin closed the week ended September 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, signaling a potential trend reversal.
- The cryptocurrency gained nearly 6% during the week, trading around $81,000 and extending its rebound to 29% over the past 35 days.
- Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn described the weekly close above the key moving average as “a potentially important confirmation that the market’s bear phase may have run its course and a new uptrend is upon us.”
Bitcoin Breaks 45-Week Barrier Above Critical 50-Week Moving Average

Bitcoin (BTC) has cleared a major technical hurdle that had resisted bullish attempts for nearly a year. For the first time since late 2023, the world’s largest cryptocurrency posted a weekly close above its 50-week moving average, a development market analysts are interpreting as a potential confirmation that the prolonged bearish phase has concluded.

The weekly candlestick close—recorded at 23:59 UTC on Sunday, September 20—shows Bitcoin settling around $81,000 after a weekly gain of nearly 6%. This advance extends the asset’s recovery to approximately 29% over the preceding 35-day period. Unlike previous instances where price action briefly pierced the moving average only to retreat, this week’s candle closed decisively above the indicator, a distinction technical analysts consider significant for trend validation.

Why the Weekly Close Carries More Weight Than Intraday Tests

Bitcoin trades continuously across global exchanges, but technical analysis frameworks rely on defined session closes—daily at 00:00 UTC and weekly at 23:59 UTC on Sundays—to construct candlestick charts. A weekly close above a major moving average carries substantially more analytical weight than an intraday or intraweek breach that fails to hold into the close.

The 50-week moving average represents the arithmetic mean of weekly closing prices over roughly the past year. In Bitcoin market analysis, this metric serves as a widely watched proxy for the asset’s long-term trend direction. When price action sustains above this level on a weekly basis, it historically correlates with the early stages of sustained uptrends; conversely, extended periods below the average typically coincide with bearish or consolidation phases.

Analyst Perspective: Galaxy Research Signals Trend Shift

Commenting on the technical development, Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn characterized the weekly close as “a potentially important confirmation that the market’s bear phase may have run its course and a new uptrend is upon us.” Thorn’s assessment underscores the significance market participants attach to the 50-week average as a regime-change indicator rather than merely a short-term support or resistance level.

Galaxy Digital, the financial services and investment management firm founded by Mike Novogratz, operates Galaxy Research as its dedicated market analysis division. The firm’s commentary often influences institutional sentiment given its focus on digital asset markets and its position as a bridge between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Why This Matters

The 50-week moving average breach represents more than a standalone technical signal; it occurs against a backdrop of evolving macroeconomic conditions, including anticipated shifts in global monetary policy and growing institutional adoption through spot exchange-traded products in major markets. A sustained weekly close above this threshold could attract trend-following capital allocation strategies that use the 50-week average as a systematic entry filter. However, market structure analysts caution that the true test lies in whether Bitcoin can convert the former resistance into support during subsequent weekly candles, particularly if macroeconomic volatility prompts risk-off sentiment across broader financial markets.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 50-week moving average and why is it significant for Bitcoin?

The 50-week moving average calculates the average weekly closing price of Bitcoin over approximately the past year. Technical analysts use it as a long-term trend indicator; sustained trading above it typically signals a bullish regime, while extended periods below suggest bearish or consolidation conditions.

How does a weekly candle close differ from an intraday price move?

A weekly candle closes at 23:59 UTC every Sunday, capturing the full week’s price action. Analysts consider a weekly close above a key level more reliable than an intraday breach because it reflects sustained conviction across all global trading sessions rather than a temporary liquidity-driven spike.

What was Bitcoin’s price performance during the week of this breakout?

Bitcoin rose nearly 6% during the week ended September 20, closing around $81,000. This weekly gain contributed to a broader 29% rebound over the preceding 35-day period.
09/20/2026
Analyst Behind Viral Model Reveals Bitcoin’s Next Bullish Target
Key Highlights
- Bitcoin has closed above the 50-week moving average (~$79,000), with the next technical target at the 100-week moving average (~$89,000).
- Analyst PlanB declares the Bitcoin bear market over, citing August’s close at $78,571 and recovery across multiple market indicators.
- Profitable Bitcoin supply surged from 50% to 72%, while the monthly RSI climbed from 41 to 51, signaling strengthening momentum.
Bitcoin Breaks Key Technical Barrier as PlanB Signals Bear Market End

Bitcoin’s price action has crossed a critical threshold, closing above the 50-week moving average near $79,000 and trading around $81,000 at the time of analysis. Widely followed pseudonymous analyst PlanB highlighted the development, stating, “Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average. The next target is the 100-week moving average, around $89,000.” This technical milestone positions the asset for a potential test of the longer-term 100-week average, a level historically associated with major trend transitions.

Multiple On-Chain and Momentum Indicators Confirm Recovery

Beyond the moving average crossover, PlanB emphasized a confluence of supporting data points. The analyst noted that August concluded with Bitcoin at $78,571, marking a turning point after which various market indicators began to recover. Notably, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in a profitable state has jumped significantly from 50% to 72%, reflecting a broad improvement in holder economics. Simultaneously, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from 41 to 51, crossing above the neutral 50 threshold and indicating a shift from bearish to bullish momentum on the macro timeframe.

Analyst Concludes Bottom Is Likely In

Synthesizing these technical and on-chain metrics, PlanB assessed that the bear market in Bitcoin has ended and that the cryptocurrency may have already passed its cycle bottom. The combination of price reclaiming the 50-week moving average, expanding profitable supply, and improving momentum oscillators constructs a technical framework that supports bullish expectations for the upcoming period. While the analyst’s commentary carries weight in the crypto community, the standard disclaimer applies: This is not investment advice.

Why This Matters

The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are among the most watched long-term trend filters in Bitcoin technical analysis. A sustained close above the 50-week average has historically preceded extended uptrends, while the 100-week average often acts as a “line in the sand” between bull and bear market regimes. The simultaneous improvement in realized profitability metrics—from 50% to 72% of supply in profit—suggests a reduction in unrealized losses across the network, which typically reduces selling pressure. The monthly RSI reclaiming 50 adds a momentum confirmation that has been absent during the recent consolidation phase. Together, these factors align with a classic market structure shift from accumulation to markup, though macroeconomic risks and regulatory developments remain external variables.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the specific price levels for the 50-week and 100-week moving averages mentioned by PlanB?

The 50-week moving average sits around $79,000, which Bitcoin has now closed above. The next target, the 100-week moving average, is approximately $89,000.

What on-chain metric showed the most dramatic improvement according to the analysis?

The percentage of Bitcoin supply in a profitable state increased from 50% to 72%, a 22-percentage-point jump indicating significantly healthier holder economics across the network.

Does PlanB’s analysis constitute a price prediction or investment recommendation?

No. The analysis presents a technical assessment based on moving averages, profitability ratios, and momentum indicators. The source explicitly includes the disclaimer: “This is not investment advice.”
09/20/2026
Analytics Firm Says “Early Bull Run Has Begun” for Bitcoin, Shares What It Expects Next
Key Highlights
- The DeFi Report signals Bitcoin is transitioning into the “early bull” phase, with the 50-week moving average near $80,000 serving as the critical support level to confirm the cycle shift.
- The platform’s four-phase model projects a 9-to-12-month early bull period before a “wealth creation” phase marked by mainstream media attention, accelerated on-chain activity, and a potential tenfold surge in Solana DEX volumes.
- Structural tailwinds—including improved liquidity conditions, deeper TradFi integration, and mobile infrastructure maturation—could propel the coming cycle beyond the previous peak, though on-chain data warns speculative assets may top out months before Bitcoin.
The DeFi Report’s Four-Phase Cycle Framework

In its latest market outlook, The DeFi Report argues that Bitcoin may be entering the initial stage of a new bull cycle. The analytics platform structures the market cycle into four distinct phases: “early bull,” “wealth creation,” “wealth distribution,” and “wealth destruction.” According to the analysis, current market structure is signaling a transition into the first phase, setting the stage for a multi-year expansion period that historically lasts nearly three years before a roughly one-year bearish contraction.

Early Bull Phase Indicators and the $80,000 Support Level

The report identifies a decisive technical threshold for confirming the early bull phase: Bitcoin must establish support around its 50-week moving average, currently sitting at approximately $80,000. This period typically spans 9 to 12 months, during which crypto-native investors begin detecting speculative activity ahead of the broader market. Complementary signals to monitor include rising Bitcoin dominance from cycle lows, the return of new users, increased DeFi incentives and marketing spend, and the launch of fresh projects—all hallmarks of early-cycle capital rotation.

Wealth Creation Phase Dynamics and Solana’s Historical Performance

Should the early bull phase hold, The DeFi Report anticipates a more pronounced Bitcoin rally in the subsequent “wealth creation” period. This phase is characterized by heightened mainstream media coverage, an accelerated influx of retail and institutional investors, and a measurable expansion in DeFi borrowing, leverage utilization, stablecoin supply, and on-chain transaction volumes. The platform highlights that during the prior cycle, trading volume on Solana decentralized exchanges increased approximately tenfold in this window, while Bitcoin futures funding rates and open interest also climbed sharply.

Risk Factors in Distribution and Destruction Phases

The analysis cautions that risks compound in the cycle’s later stages. The DeFi Report specifically notes that high-yielding speculative assets have historically peaked months before Bitcoin reaches its own top, prompting capital rotation across sectors. In the “wealth distribution” phase, a structural dynamic emerges where early-cycle investors realize profits while new entrants provide exit liquidity—a pattern that precedes the final “wealth destruction” phase and the onset of the bear market.

On-Chain Analytics as Market Cycle Compass

Central to The DeFi Report’s methodology is the use of on-chain data, which the platform argues differentiates crypto from traditional asset classes. By tracking investor cost bases, coin movements, and leverage accumulation across wallet cohorts, analysts can observe how supply changes hands between groups with different acquisition prices. This flow—specifically which cohort is accumulating or distributing—serves as a leading indicator for identifying the prevailing market phase.

Structural Tailwinds for a Stronger Cycle Ahead

The report contends that the upcoming bull cycle could surpass the magnitude of the 2020–2021 run. The previous expansion was constrained by the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction, persistently elevated interest rates, capital diversion toward AI equities, and gold outperforming Bitcoin. In contrast, the current backdrop features more accommodative liquidity conditions, deeper integration of Bitcoin into the traditional financial system via spot ETFs and custody infrastructure, accelerating global crypto adoption, and the maturation of mobile application layers that lower barriers to entry for retail participants.

Perpetual DEX Evolution: Lighter and Robinhood Integration

On-chain perpetual trading infrastructure is singled out as a key growth vertical. The DeFi Report highlights Lighter, a perpetuals platform built within the Ethereum ecosystem, noting its product architecture and reliance on Ethereum’s security model. The platform has reportedly begun routing a significant share of its perpetual trading volume through Robinhood, signaling a convergence between decentralized trading venues and mainstream brokerage distribution channels.

Why This Matters

The DeFi Report’s framework offers a structured lens for navigating crypto’s cyclical volatility. By anchoring phase transitions to quantifiable on-chain metrics—such as the 50-week moving average reclaim, cohort-based cost-basis analysis, and stablecoin supply growth—the analysis moves beyond narrative-driven speculation. For market participants, the distinction between early-cycle accumulation and late-cycle distribution carries direct implications for position sizing, sector allocation, and risk management. Moreover, the identification of structural improvements—TradFi rails, mobile UX, and regulatory clarity—suggests the asset class may be maturing into a more resilient, institutionally accessible market, potentially altering the amplitude and duration of future cycles.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the key technical level confirming Bitcoin’s early bull phase according to The DeFi Report?

The critical indicator is Bitcoin establishing support around the 50-week moving average at approximately $80,000.

How long does the early bull phase typically last, and what follows it?

The early bull phase historically lasts 9 to 12 months and is followed by the “wealth creation” phase, marked by mainstream media attention, accelerated on-chain activity, and significant volume expansion on platforms like Solana DEXs.

Why does The DeFi Report believe the next cycle could be stronger than the last one?

The report cites more supportive liquidity conditions, Bitcoin’s deeper integration into traditional finance (e.g., spot ETFs), rising global crypto adoption, and mature mobile infrastructure as tailwinds absent during the previous cycle, which was hampered by Fed tightening, high rates, AI capital competition, and gold outperformance.
09/17/2026
Trading Expert Sets Bitcoin’s Price for End of October 2026

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Support Trendline Holds $61,500 Downside Target for Late 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) could decline to $61,500 by the end of October 2026 if a critical support trendline fails, according to a technical analysis published by TradingShot on September 11. The bearish outlook draws parallels to chart patterns that preceded Bitcoin’s two largest sell-offs earlier this year.

Repeated 50-Week MA Rejection Forms Bearish Arc Pattern

The analyst noted that Bitcoin has been rejected by its 50-week moving average (MA) for three consecutive weeks. This repeated rejection has generated bearish momentum and formed an arc pattern that closely resembles the structures preceding the January and May 2026 market tops.

The May peak is highlighted as particularly relevant because Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day MA — a situation analogous to the current rejection at the 50-week MA. Both earlier patterns were followed by sharp corrections.

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView

Higher-Lows Trendline Break Could Confirm New Bearish Leg

Traders should closely monitor Bitcoin’s higher-lows trendline, which has acted as critical support during the current recovery phase. The analysis indicates that in both January and May, a breakdown below this trendline triggered aggressive selling pressure and accelerated Bitcoin’s decline. A similar breakdown now would likely confirm a new bearish leg for the market.

Adding to the bearish case, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) structure closely mirrors the formations that developed before the previous two corrections, reinforcing the possibility of another downside move.

$61,500 Target Based on 3.5 Fibonacci Extension

If the higher-lows trendline breaks, the expert expects Bitcoin to decline toward the 3.5 Fibonacci extension level at $61,500. This bearish target is derived from Bitcoin’s previous two major corrections in 2026, both of which bottomed at the 3.5 Fibonacci extension while the daily RSI dropped to 15.80. The analyst noted that a similar RSI reading could signal another market bottom.

Bearish Invalidation and Key Support Levels

The bearish outlook would be invalidated if Bitcoin closes a weekly candle above the 50-week MA. The analyst also highlighted the 250-week MA as a key support level after it held the July 1 low. A breakout above the 50-week MA could potentially confirm a new bull cycle.

Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation With $78,000 as Key Resistance

Separately, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe maintained a more constructive short-term outlook in an X post on September 14, noting that Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase.

Nothing has changed on #Bitcoin as it’s still consolidating here.I’d much rather want to see that we’re breaking through $78,000 as that would trigger strength on #Altcoins.The crucial one, if that breaks, we’re likely running towards new highs in the upcoming weeks. pic.twitter.com/XT7E0LqprY
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 14, 2026

According to his analysis, the key level to watch is $78,000. A breakout above that resistance could strengthen momentum across the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly altcoins. The analyst suggested that clearing $78,000 would increase the likelihood of Bitcoin advancing toward new highs in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, as of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $78,013, up about 1.7% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, the cryptocurrency remained down 1.5%.

Featured image via Shutterstock

09/14/2026