Daily News 19

Tag: 365-day moving average

  • What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Rise? Glassnode and CryptoQuant CEOs Explain

    What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Rise? Glassnode and CryptoQuant CEOs Explain

    Key Highlights

    • Bitcoin surged past $85,000 as short-position liquidations between $82,000 and $86,000 accelerated upward momentum, according to Glassnode on-chain data.
    • CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju confirmed Bitcoin has reclaimed the critical 365-day moving average at approximately $83,000, a level widely watched to signal the end of the bear market.
    • Analysts suggest sustained trading above the 365-day MA could trigger increased buying pressure from trend-following and institutional investors driven by FOMO.

    Short-Position Liquidations Fuel Bitcoin’s Break Above $85,000

    Bitcoin opened the week with a decisive move above the $85,000 threshold, marking its highest level in months. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode attributes the acceleration to a cascade of short-position liquidations clustered between $82,000 and $86,000. According to Glassnode data, a significant volume of short liquidity had accumulated in this range over recent months. When Bitcoin failed to produce the sharp pullbacks many traders anticipated, those holding short positions were forced to buy back $BTC to cover, creating a feedback loop that propelled prices higher.

    Glassnode analysts described the dynamic in their latest assessment: “As expected, Bitcoin quickly broke through the short liquidation wall.” They elaborated that the rejection at this level proved insufficient to halt the advance: “Short positions accumulated between $82,000 and $86,000 over the months, but the rejection at that level was insufficient. Now these short positions have become fuel, because these traders need to buy back $BTC.” This short-covering rally has effectively turned prior bearish positioning into buying pressure.

    365-Day Moving Average Reclaimed: A Critical Bull-Market Signal

    Adding weight to the bullish narrative, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X that Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average, currently situated near $83,000, with price action holding above $84,000. Ju emphasized that this long-term trend indicator is a primary reference point for market participants assessing whether the bear market has concluded. CryptoQuant has historically treated a sustained breakout above the 365-day MA as a confirmation signal for a new bull market cycle.

    Ju’s commentary underscored the psychological and structural importance of the level: “Bitcoin reclaimed the 365MA at the $83,000 level and is currently sitting above $84,000.” He further noted the potential for momentum-driven inflows: “This is the line everyone is watching for the end of the bear market. If it holds, momentum will start to drive traders and institutions crazy with FOMO. This is where things get fun.”

    Why This Matters

    The confluence of short-covering dynamics and a key long-term technical reclamation presents a noteworthy inflection point for Bitcoin. The $82,000–$86,000 zone had acted as a liquidity magnet for bearish bets; its clearance removes a structural overhang and may reduce near-term selling pressure from forced liquidations. Simultaneously, the 365-day moving average reclaim is widely regarded by quantitative analysts and institutional desks as a regime-change filter. A daily close above this level, if sustained, could unlock algorithmic trend-following strategies and encourage capital allocation from funds that mandate bull-market confirmation before deploying size. Market participants will now monitor whether Bitcoin can establish support above the 365-day MA and the $84,000–$85,000 band, which would strengthen the case for a durable uptrend.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What caused Bitcoin’s rapid move above $85,000?

    The surge was driven by a cascade of short-position liquidations. Glassnode data shows a large concentration of short bets between $82,000 and $86,000. When price failed to reverse sharply in that zone, short sellers bought back $BTC to cover, creating a self-reinforcing upward spiral.

    Why is the 365-day moving average so important?

    The 365-day moving average (currently ~$83,000) is a widely watched long-term trend indicator. CryptoQuant and many institutional analysts treat a sustained break above this level as a primary signal that the bear market has ended and a new bull market may be underway.

    What needs to happen for the bullish case to strengthen?

    Analysts will look for Bitcoin to hold above the 365-day MA and the $84,000–$85,000 range on daily closes. Sustained support could trigger additional buying from trend-following algorithms and institutional investors, amplifying momentum.

  • Bitcoin Bull Run Revives as Price Jumps 8%

    Bitcoin Bull Run Revives as Price Jumps 8%

    Key Highlights

    • Bitcoin rallies 8.10% from Wednesday’s low of $75,064, reclaiming the 365-day moving average at $80,701 for the first time since November 2025.
    • Long-term holder supply hits a record accumulation phase since February while short-term holder supply declines, signaling strengthening conviction among strong hands.
    • Despite technical resilience, analysts warn of subdued trading activity versus prior bull markets and potential headwinds from upcoming rate hikes and a rising U.S. Dollar Index.

    Bitcoin’s Technical Breakthrough Above Yearly Moving Average

    Bitcoin ($BTC) has staged a significant recovery, surging 8.10% from Wednesday’s low of $75,064 to trade back above its 365-day moving average, currently situated at $80,701. This marks the first time since November 2025 that the asset has sustained positioning above this critical long-term trend indicator. The bounce follows a pullback from the $82,000 level earlier in September, a decline the market appears to have attributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The speed of the recovery suggests the prior dip represented a pricing-in of hawkish monetary policy expectations rather than a fundamental shift in demand.

    Macro Headwinds Fail to Derail Recovery

    The ascent occurs against a backdrop of considerable macroeconomic adversity. The CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate, liquidity conditions are tightening due to persistent inflation, and a series of rate hikes is projected for 2027. Compounding the pressure, the Bank of Japan has also moved to raise interest rates. According to crypto researcher Bull Theory on X, this resilience—absorbing multiple bearish catalysts while pushing higher—is “reminiscent of the 2023 market bottom.” The ability to reclaim the yearly moving average amid such conditions is being interpreted by bulls as a major victory, signaling underlying structural strength rather than speculative froth.

    On-Chain Data Reveals Shifting Holder Dynamics

    Supporting the bullish technical structure, on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal a profound shift in investor behavior. Since February, the total supply held by long-term holders (LTHs) has trended steadily higher, while the supply held by short-term holders (STHs)—defined as coins with an age of 155 days or under—has been in consistent decline. Crypto analyst Funding Vest noted on CryptoQuant, “It was a record phase of accumulation.” This dynamic indicates that weak hands are being shaken out of the market while higher-conviction participants accumulate aggressively. Analysts suggest this supply constriction could act as a catalyst for a supply shock if prices continue to appreciate.

    Analyst Perspectives: Bullish Parallels and Cautionary Signals

    However, the picture is not uniformly optimistic. Analyst Joao Wedson highlighted on X that trading activity remains subdued compared to previous bull market peaks, potentially evidencing weaker retail participation. Wedson cautioned, “Right now, Bitcoin is still in the process of breaking its bearish trend. It might not even have fully transitioned into a bull run.” The looming prospect of further rate hikes and a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) presents tangible risks for risk-on assets, suggesting the path forward may be volatile despite the current technical victory.

    Why This Matters

    The reconquest of the 365-day moving average is a widely watched milestone that often signals a transition from bearish to bullish market structure. The convergence of this technical signal with a historic accumulation trend among long-term holders suggests the current rally is backed by fundamental conviction rather than leverage-driven speculation. However, the macroeconomic overhang—specifically the trajectory of global interest rates and dollar strength—remains the primary variable. If central banks maintain a hawkish stance, the liquidity required to sustain a full-blown bull run may be constrained, potentially trapping the market in a prolonged consolidation or “chop” phase. The divergence between smart money accumulation and retail apathy is a classic late-bear/early-bull signature that warrants close monitoring of volume metrics in the coming weeks.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Has Bitcoin confirmed a new bull market?

    Not definitively. While reclaiming the 365-day moving average is a necessary condition for a bull market, analysts like Joao Wedson caution that Bitcoin is still “in the process of breaking its bearish trend” and may not have fully transitioned. Sustained volume expansion and higher highs are required for confirmation.

    What does the long-term holder accumulation trend indicate?

    Data from CryptoQuant shows a record accumulation phase since February, with LTH supply rising and STH supply falling. This signals that experienced, high-conviction investors are absorbing supply from weaker participants, a dynamic that historically precedes supply-constrained price appreciation.

    What are the main risks to Bitcoin’s current rally?

    The primary risks are macroeconomic: a projected series of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2027, ongoing quantitative tightening, Bank of Japan policy normalization, and a rising U.S. Dollar Index. Additionally, subdued retail trading volume suggests the rally lacks broad-based participation, making it vulnerable to sudden sentiment shifts.

  • Bitcoin Warning: Signal That Failed in Past Bull Runs Flares Up Again

    Bitcoin Warning: Signal That Failed in Past Bull Runs Flares Up Again

    Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Nears Critical 365-Day Average, CryptoQuant Signals Potential Regime Shift

    Cryptocurrency analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is approaching its 365-day moving average — a level that has historically marked major market regime changes. While the indicator is trending toward this threshold, the current reading does not yet confirm the start of a new bull market.

    Historical Significance of the 365-Day Moving Average Breakout

    According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a sustained break above the 365-day moving average on the MVRV Z-Score has previously signaled a transition from a recovery phase to an expansion phase. The firm highlights three prior instances:

    • The 2015–2016 breakout preceded the 2017 bull market.
    • The 2020 move came ahead of the 2020–2021 rally.
    • The 2023 recovery aligned with the final expansion period of that cycle.

    If Bitcoin clears and holds above this level, it could reflect a resurgence of unrealized profits across the network and the beginning of a new expansion regime. Conversely, a rejection would suggest overall market profitability remains insufficient to support a broader bull run.

    Current Cycle Shows Structurally Shallower Correction

    A key distinction in the current cycle is that the MVRV Z-Score did not fall below zero during the recent pullback — unlike at previous major cycle lows, where the indicator entered a low-valuation zone. CryptoQuant notes this could mean one of two things:

    • Bitcoin is experiencing a structurally shallower correction.
    • A capitulation event on the scale of prior macro lows may not yet be complete.

    Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score has formed lower peaks in each successive cycle. This trend suggests that even as Bitcoin’s price reaches higher highs, the market’s valuation excesses are becoming progressively more limited over time.

    Risk Assessment: Key Levels to Watch

    CryptoQuant outlines the following scenarios for market direction:

    • Bullish scenario: MVRV Z-Score reclaims and sustains above the 365-day moving average.
    • Repair regime: Rejection at the 365-day average indicates the market remains in a repair phase.
    • Correction not complete: A move back toward zero would reinforce the view that the current correction process is unfinished.

    This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.