Key Highlights:
- BIT Research says Bitcoin’s cycle bottom arrived in late July after the price held above $62,900 and moved above its 21-week moving average.
- The company estimates Bitcoin’s fair value at approximately $105,000 and identifies about $142,000 as a baseline level for the current cycle.
- Based on historical-cycle models, BIT Research projects a possible peak of $185,000 to $215,000, potentially around 2028–2029.
BIT Research Says Bitcoin Bear Market May Be Over
BIT Research states that Bitcoin’s market cycle reached its bottom in late July. The conclusion is based on an Elliott Wave analysis reaching its downside target, while Bitcoin’s price remained above the critically important $62,900 level.
The research company also identified Bitcoin’s 21-week moving average as a key bottom indicator. After Bitcoin surpassed $62,900, its price moved above the 21-week moving average at $69,272. BIT Research considers that move one of the main signals that the bear market may have ended.
“…When the price is above this, the trend is generally upward. When the price is below this, the trend is generally downward. This is one of the simplest and most effective ways to distinguish a bull market from a bear market. $BTC rose above this at $69,272; this is a strong indication that the bear market may be over.”
Bitcoin Fair Value Estimated at Approximately $105,000
BIT Research also calculated Bitcoin’s fair value using a model based on the relationship between U.S. federal debt and the Bitcoin price. Using approximately $40.1 trillion in U.S. federal debt, the company’s model produced an estimated fair value of approximately $105,000 for Bitcoin.
The report additionally examined Bitcoin’s “True Market Mean” indicator, which places the average cost of Bitcoin in the market at approximately $76,897. BIT Research noted that, in previous cycles, bull markets reached their peaks after Bitcoin climbed at least 85% above this average cost.
Applying that calculation to current data produces a level of approximately $142,000. However, BIT Research emphasized that this figure is not a definitive price target or final cycle peak. Instead, the company describes it as a baseline level that could be exceeded later in the cycle.
BIT Research Projects a Possible Bitcoin Peak of $185,000–$215,000
BIT Research’s next bullish scenario assumes that the upside multiplier in Bitcoin’s previous cycles has narrowed over time. Based on that assumption, the company calculated a possible peak for the current cycle between $185,000 and $215,000.
According to the report, Bitcoin reached the 85% multiplier level during its last cycle at approximately $73,000 in March 2024. The price later peaked at $126,000, or approximately 1.7 times higher. If the multiplier declines to between 1.3 and 1.5 times from the $142,000 baseline, the resulting range would still be $185,000 to $215,000.
“…If this multiplier falls to 1.3-1.5 times from a base of $142,000, a possible upside scenario could be $185,000-215,000.”
When Could Bitcoin Reach Approximately $200,000?
Although BIT Research expects Bitcoin’s broader trend to remain upward, the company does not suggest that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 in the near term. The report notes that the previous cycle took approximately 19 months to move from a similar signal to the final peak, as the average market cost needed time to catch up with the price.
If the current cycle follows a similar timeline, BIT Research says a scenario around $200,000 could occur during the 2028–2029 period.
“…In the last cycle, it took about 19 months to reach the peak from the 85% level because it took time for the average cost to catch up with the price. If this cycle follows a similar timeline, a scenario around $200,000 could coincide with the years 2028-2029.”
Why This Matters
BIT Research’s analysis presents several model-based indicators pointing to a potentially completed Bitcoin bear market, including the $62,900 support level, the 21-week moving average at $69,272, the estimated fair value of approximately $105,000 and the True Market Mean level of about $76,897.
However, the projected levels of $142,000 and $185,000–$215,000 are based on historical Bitcoin price cycles and models used by BIT Research. The report does not establish that Bitcoin’s future price movements will necessarily follow those patterns, and the timing estimate around 2028–2029 depends on the current cycle resembling the previous one.
This is not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What indicators does BIT Research use to argue that Bitcoin’s bear market may be over?
BIT Research points to Bitcoin holding above $62,900, reaching the downside target in its Elliott Wave analysis and rising above the 21-week moving average at $69,272.
What Bitcoin price levels does BIT Research project?
The company estimates Bitcoin’s fair value at approximately $105,000, identifies about $142,000 as a baseline level and calculates a possible cycle peak between $185,000 and $215,000.
When could Bitcoin reach approximately $200,000 under the report’s scenario?
BIT Research says that, if the current cycle follows the timing of the previous cycle, a scenario around $200,000 could occur during 2028–2029.